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Wiederfang von zwei Sumpfmeisen (Parus palustris) nach einer Serie von Orientierungsversuchen
(1989)
We controlled two Marsh Tits in mist nets after they have been in orientation experiments for several weeks and released at the site of capture. One was controlled 1 1/2 years after the tests. There does not seem to be any impact of the experiments on the ability to survive well.
Die Schleiereule (Tyto alba) ist eine in fast allen Regionen der Erde vorkommende Eulenart. In Mitteleuropa erreicht sie die nördlichste Grenze ihres Verbreitungsgebiets. Man trifft sie hier in tiefergelegenen, waldarmen Gegenden an. Eine Arbeitsgruppe der Hessischen Gesellschaft für Ornithologie und Naturschutz (HGON) und des Deutschen Bund für Vogelschutz (DBV) führt im hessischen Main-Kinzig-Kreis seit 1976 Maßnahmen zum Schutz der Schleiereulen durch. Dazu gehören das Anbringen von Brutkisten an geeigneten Stellen und Winterfütterungsversuche. Die Brutkisten wurden jedes Jahr kontrolliert und die sich darin befindenden Jungvögel beringt. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Darstellung von Ergebnissen der Untersuchungen aus den zurückliegenden 12 Jahren. Dabei wird das Hauptaugenmerk einamal auf die Brutbiologie der Schleiereule und zum anderen auf die Disnigration der jungen Eulen gelegt.
Der Titel der Tagung, deren Beiträge dieser Band dokumentiert, ist Programm: Jenseits der postmodernen Abschiedsstimmung, in die manche Reflexion über die Zukunft des Staates je nach theoretischer und politischer Orientierung melancholisch oder mit Schadenfreude verfällt, setzt er voraus, was eigentlich selbstverständlich sein sollte: dass es auch in Zukunft den Staat weder theoretisch noch praktisch zu verabschieden gilt. Er versucht deutlich zu machen, dass es im Jahre 1 eines neuen Jahrtausends in der Berliner Republik nicht mehr um eine Fortsetzung der allgemeinen Verunsicherung der achtziger und neunziger Jahre gehen kann. Es reicht nicht theoretisch (und manchmal – so scheint es – nur theoretisch und ohne zur Kenntnis zu nehmen, welche Rolle moderne Staaten in den Industriegesellschaften faktisch spielen) zu bezweifeln, ob der Staat der Zukunft noch souverän, national, sozial, steuernd, intervenierend etc. sein könne, um nur einige Attribute des Staates zu nennen, die Gegenstand der skeptischen Überlegungen sind. Rückblickend auf die Debatten um die Steuerungsfähigkeit des Staates, die Krise des Sozialstaats, Deregulierung, Privatisierung und Entbürokratisierung sowie Internationalisierung und Globalisierung ist es an der Zeit, Lösungswege zur Diskussion zu stellen. Nach der soziologischen Entzauberung und philosophischen Dekonstruktion des Staates bedarf es gegenwärtig einer Gegenbewegung: der praxisfähigen Rekonstruktion normativer Leitbilder. ...
Indem das Internet als Infrastruktur die Transaktionskosten grenzüberschreitender Kommunikation radikal senkt, wirkt es als Katalysator der Globalisierung der Gesellschaft1. Rechtskollisionen erhalten hierdurch in allen gesellschaftlichen Bereichen eine gesteigerte Bedeutung. Im Rahmen der allgemeinen Debatte um die Etablierung einer Global Governance kommt der Internetgovernance deshalb eine paradigmatische Rolle zu. Aus ökonomischer Sicht steht dabei die Schaffung eines Rechtsrahmens für den globalen E-Commerce im Vordergrund. Im Hinblick auf eine innovationsoffene Regulierung erscheint es in diesem Zusammenhang als reizvoll, der Frage nach einem Rechtsrahmen für den grenzüberschreitenden Business-to-Consumer-E-Commerce nachzugehen. Denn das deutsche und europäische Verbrauchervertragsrecht stehen aktuell eher für eine gegenläufige Tendenz zur Begrenzung der Privatautonomie zugunsten zwingender Vorgaben des Gesetzgebers, die auch kollisionsrechtlich gegen eine parteiautonome Rechtswahl abgesichert werden5. Während etwa das in der E-Commerce-Richtlinie verankerte Herkunftsstaatprinzip nicht nur dasWirtschaftsaufsichtsrecht,sondern auch weite Teile des Zivilrechts den Innovationskräften des Systemwettbewerbs öffnet, scheint sich das Verbrauchervertragsrecht aufgrund seines Schutzzweckes als mit innovationsoffenen Regulierungsmodellen inkompatibel zu erweisen. Ist damit auf dem Gebiet des Verbrauchervertragsrechts nicht nur der traditionelle Wettbewerb der individuellen Vertragsklauseln sowie der Klauselwerke (AGB) innerhalb einer staatlichen Privatrechtsordnung, sondern auch der institutionelle Wettbewerb zwischen den Verbraucherschutzmodellen der verschiedenen staatlichen Privatrechtsordnungen ausgeschlossen, so verbleibt als potentieller Innovationsspeicher nur der Raum der gesellschaftlichen Selbstregulierung jenseits des (staatlichen) Rechts. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird im folgenden untersucht, ob und inwieweit sich aufgrund der spezifischen Charakteristika der Internetkommunikation im Bereich des globalen E-Commerce eine Verdichtung von Phänomenen der privaten Normsetzung und der sozialen Selbstregulierung beobachten läßt, die als Emergenz eines transnationalen Verbrauchervertragsrechts interpretiert werden kann. Zunächst soll dabei eine Definition transnationalen Rechts entwickelt werden, die diesen Begriff an die spontanen Innovationskräfte der globalen Zivil(rechts)gesellschaft koppelt (II.). In einem zweiten Schritt werden dann Entstehungsbedingungen und Phänomene eines transnationalen Verbrauchervertragsrechts beleuchtet (III.). Sodann wird der Frage nach einer Konstitutionalisierung des transnationalen Verbrauchervertragsrechts nachgegangen (IV.). Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Ausblick auf potentielle Ziele und Methoden der Regulierung des Wettbewerbs transnationaler Verbraucherschutzregimes (V.).
In April 2003 I commented on the European Commission’s Action Plan on a More Coherent European Contract Law [COM(2003) 68 final] and the Green Paper on the Modernisation of the 1980 Rome Convention [COM(2002) 654 final].1 While the main argument of that paper, i.e. the common neglect of the inherent interrelation between both the further harmonisation of substantive contract law by directives or through an optional European Civil Code on the one hand and the modernisation of conflict rules for consumer contracts in Art. 5 Rome Convention on the other hand, remain pressing issues, and as the German Law Journal continues its efforts in offering timely and critical analysis on consumer law issues,2 there is a variety of recent developments worth noting.
The negative-pion multiplicity is measured for central collisions of 40Ar with KCl at eight energies from 0.36 to 1.8 GeV/nucleon and for 4He on KCl and 40Ar on BaI2 at 977 and 772 MeV/nucleon, respectively. A systematic discrepancy with a cascade-model calculation which fits proton- and pion-nucleus cross sections but omits potential-energy effects is used to derive the energy going into bulk compression of the system. A value of the incompressibility constant of K=240 MeV is extracted in a parabolic form of the nuclear-matter equation of state.
The parities of eleven J=1 levels in 208Pb were determined by nuclear resonance fluorescence scattering of linearly polarized photons. A new 1+ level at Ex=5.846 MeV with Gamma 02 / Gamma =1.2±0.4 eV was found. This level can probably be identified with the theoretically predicted isoscalar 1+ state in 208Pb. All other bound dipole states below 7 MeV with Gamma 02 / Gamma >1.5 eV have negative parity. The 1- assignment to the 4.842-MeV level is of special significance because of previous conflicting results about its parity.
The 16O ( gamma ,p0) reaction has been studied with linearly polarized bremsstrahlung photons in and below the giant E1 resonance. The parity of the absorbed radiation was determined from the observed azimuthal asymmetry of the emitted protons. Combined with unpolarized measurements the polarized results determine the proton decay amplitudes of the M1 resonance at Ex=16.2 MeV in 16O. The shape of the unpolarized 16O ( gamma ,p3) angular distribution in the giant E1 resonance was derived from the measured analyzing power. NUCLEAR REACTIONS 16O( gamma ,p), E=15-25 MeV; measured analyzing power theta =90° linearly polarized bremsstrahlung; 16O dipole levels deduced pi ; 16.2 MeV 1+ resonance deduced p0 decay amplitudes; 16O GEDR deduced p3 angular distribution.
The ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics model (UrQMD) is used to study global observables in central reactions of Au+Au at sqrt[s]=200A GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Strong stopping governed by massive particle production is predicted if secondary interactions are taken into account. The underlying string dynamics and the early hadronic decoupling implies only small transverse expansion rates. However, rescattering with mesons is found to act as a source of pressure leading to additional flow of baryons and kaons, while cooling down pions.
11 262 keV 1+ state in 20Ne
(1983)
The excitation energy of the lowest 1+, T=1 state in 20Ne, which is important for parity nonconservation studies, has been determined in a photon scattering experiment to be 11 262.3 ± 1.9 keV. Values for the gamma -ray branching of this level to the ground state and to the first 2+ level in 20Ne are 84 ± 5% and 16 ± 5%, respectively. NUCLEAR REACTIONS 20Ne( gamma , gamma ), E gamma <18 MeV, bremsstrahlung; measured E gamma , gamma branching. Ne natural targets.
Proton emission in relativistic nuclear collisions is examined for events of low and high multiplicity, corresponding to large and small impact parameters. Peripheral reactions exhibit distributions of protons in agreement with spectator-participant decay modes. Central collisions of equal-size nuclei are dominated by the formation and decay of a fireball system. Central collisions of light projectiles with heavy targets exhibit an enhancement in sideward emission which is predicted by recent hydrodynamical calculations.
Angular distributions for elastic and inelastic transitions in 20Ne + 16O scattering have been measured at E(20Ne)=50 MeV. For the 0+, 2+, and 4+ members of the 20Ne ground-state rotational band, the angular distributions exhibit pronounced backward peaking characteristic of an alpha -cluster exchange mechanism. The analysis of the ground-state transition in the first-order elastic transfer model yields no satisfactory fit although microscopic cluster form factors and full recoil corrections are employed. A coupled channels calculation for the 0+, 2+, and 4+ transitions reveals very strong coupling effects, indicating that the coherent superposition of first-order optical model and distorted-wave Born-approximation amplitudes may not be an adequate model for these reactions. NUCLEAR REACTIONS 16O(20Ne, 16O) and 16O(20Ne, 20Ne), elastic and inelastic transfer; E=50MeV; measured sigma (Ef , theta ); optical model + DWBA, and CCBA analyses.
The elastic alpha scattering to backward angles has been studied for 40,42,44,48Ca between 40.7 and 72.3 MeV. The cross sections for 40Ca are larger than those for the higher isotopes up to the highest energies. They show backward increases that disappear above 50 MeV. The enhancement factor for 40Ca over 42,44Ca varies smoothly with energy. 48Ca does also show a backward cross-section enhancement over 42,44Ca. alpha -cluster rotational bands in the 44Ti compound state, four-nucleon correlations in 40Ca, and the l-dependent optical model are discussed as approaches to understand the anomaly. The rotator model appears to agree qualitatively with the experimental data. It involves rotational bands extending at least up to J=16 in 44Ti.
We present simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the Arctic winter 2002/2003. We integrated a Lagrangian denitrification scheme into the three-dimensional version of CLaMS that calculates the growth and sedimentation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles along individual particle trajectories. From those, we derive the HNO3 downward flux resulting from different particle nucleation assumptions. The simulation results show a clear vertical redistribution of total inorganic nitrogen (NOy), with a maximum vortex average permanent NOy removal of over 5 ppb in late December between 500 and 550 K and a corresponding increase of NOy of over 2 ppb below about 450 K. The simulated vertical redistribution of NOy is compared with balloon observations by MkIV and in-situ observations from the high altitude aircraft Geophysica. Assuming a globally uniform NAT particle nucleation rate of 3.4·10−6 cm−3 h−1 in the model, the observed denitrification is well reproduced. In the investigated winter 2002/2003, the denitrification has only moderate impact (<=10%) on the simulated vortex average ozone loss of about 1.1 ppm near the 460 K level. At higher altitudes, above 600 K potential temperature, the simulations show significant ozone depletion through NOx-catalytic cycles due to the unusual early exposure of vortex air to sunlight.
Chlorine monoxide (ClO) plays a key role in stratospheric ozone loss processes at midlatitudes. We present two balloonborne in situ measurements of ClO conducted in northern hemisphere midlatitudes during the period of the maximum of total inorganic chlorine loading in the atmosphere. Both ClO measurements were conducted on board the TRIPLE balloon payload, launched in November 1996 in Le´on, Spain, and in May 1999 in Aire sur l’Adour, France. For both flights a ClO daylight and night time vertical profile could be derived over an altitude range of approximately 15–31 km. ClO mixing ratios are compared to model simulations performed with the photochemical box model version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Simulations along 24-h backward trajectories were performed to study the diurnal variation of ClO in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Model simulations for the flight launched in Aire sur l’Adour 1999 show a good agreement with the ClO measurements. For the flight launched in Le´on 1996, a similar good agreement is found, except at around ~ 650 K potential temperature (~26km altitude). However, a tendency is found that for solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° the simulated ClO mixing ratios substantially overestimate measured ClO by approximately a factor of 2.5 or more for both flights. Therefore we conclude that no indication can be deduced from the presented ClO measurements that substantial uncertainties exist in midlatitude chlorine chemistry of the stratosphere. An exception is the situation at solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° where model simulations substantial overestimate ClO observations.
Back-angle enhancements of elastic alpha -scattering cross sections have been observed for nuclei at the ends of the 1p, 2s-1d, and f7 / 2 shells. Strong reduction of this enhancement occurs if excess neutrons enter the next open major shell. The results are discussed in terms of intermediate alpha structure.
Pion-production cross sections have been measured for the reaction 40Ar+40Ca--> pi ++X at a laboratory energy of 1.05 GeV/nucleon. A maximum in the pi + cross section occurs at mid-rapidity, which is anomalous relative to p+p and p+nucleus reactions and compared to many other heavy-ion reactions. Calculations based on cascade and thermal models fail to fit the data.
Inclusive energy spectra of protons, deuterons, and tritons were measured with a telescope of silicon and germanium detectors with a detection range for proton energies up to 200 MeV. Fifteen sets of data were taken using projectiles ranging from protons to 40Ar on targets from 27Al to 238U at bombarding energies from 240 MeV/nucleon to 2.1 GeV/nucleon. Particular attention was paid to the absolute normalization of the cross sections. For three previously reported reactions, He fragment cross sections have been corrected and are presented. To facilitate a comparison with theory the sum of nucleonic charges emitted as protons plus composite particles was estimated and is presented as a function of fragment energy per nucleon in the interval from 15 to 200 MeV/nucleon. For low-energy fragments at forward angles the protons account for only 25% of the nucleonic charges. The equal mass 40Ar plus Ca systems were examined in the center of mass. Here at 0.4 GeV/nucleon 40Ar plus Ca the proton spectra appear to be nearly isotropic in the center of mass over the region measured. Comparisons of some data with firestreak, cascade, and fluid dynamics models indicate a failure of the first and a fair agreement with the latter two. In addition, associated fast charged particle multiplicities (where the particles had energies larger than 25 MeV/nucleon) and azimuthal correlations were measured with an 80 counter array of plastic scintillators. It was found that the associated multiplicities were a smooth function of the total kinetic energy of the projectile. NUCLEAR REACTIONS U(20Ne,X), E / A=240 MeV/nucleon; U(40Ar,X), Ca(40Ar,X), U(20Ne,X), Au(20Ne,X), Ag(20Ne,X), Al(20Ne,X), U(4He,X), Al(4He,X), E / A=390 MeV/nucleon; U(40Ar,X), Ca(40Ar,X), U(20Ne,X), U(4He,X), U(p,X), E / A=1.04 GeV/nucleon; U(20Ne,X), E / A=2.1 GeV/nucleon; measured sigma (E, theta ), X=p,d,t.
Exclusive pi - and charged-particle production in collisions of Ar+KCl is studied at incident energies from 0.4 to 1.8 GeV/u. Complete disintegration of both nuclei is observed. The correlation between pi - and total charge multiplicity shows no islands of anomalous pion production. For constant numbers of proton participants the pi - multiplicity distributions are Poissons. For central collisions <n pi -> increases smoothly and to first order linearly with the c.m. energy. Disagreement with the firestreak model is found. Pacs numbers: 25.70.Hi, 24.10.Dp
Lambda 's produced in central collisions of 40Ar+KC1 at 1.8-GeV/u incident energy were detected in a streamer chamber by their charged-particle decay. For central collisions with impact parameters b<2.4 fm the Lambda production cross section is 7.6±2.2 mb. A calculation in which Lambda production occurs in the early stage of the collision qualitatively reproduces the results but underestimates the transverse momenta. An average Lambda polarization of -0.10±0.05 is observed. PACS numbers: 25.70 Bc
Pion production and charged-particle multiplicity selection in relativistic nuclear collisions
(1982)
Spectra of positive pions with energies of 15-95 MeV were measured for high energy proton, 4He, 20Ne, and 40Ar bombardments of targets of 27Al, 40Ca, 107,109Ag, 197Au, and 238U. A Si-Ge telescope was used to identify charged pions by dE / dx-E and, in addition, stopped pi + were tagged by the subsequent muon decay. In all, results for 14 target-projectile combinations are presented to study the dependence of pion emission patterns on the bombarding energy (from E / A=0.25 to 2.1 GeV) and on the target and the projectile masses. In addition, associated charged-particle multiplicities were measured in an 80-paddle array of plastic scintillators, and used to make impact parameter selections on the pion-inclusive data. NUCLEAR REACTIONS U(20Ne, pi +), E / A=250 MeV; U(40Ar, pi +), Ca(40Ar, pi +), U(20Ne, pi +), Au(20Ne, pi +), Ag(20Ne, pi +), Al(20Ne, pi +), U(4He, pi +), Al(4He, pi +). E / A=400 MeV; Ca(40Ar, pi +), U(20Ne, pi +), U(4He, pi +), U(p, pi +), E / A=1.05), GeV; U(20Ne, pi +), E / A=2.1 GeV; measured sigma (E, theta ), inclusive and selected on associated charged-particle multiplicity.
Energy spectra and angular distributions have been measured of 3He and 4He fragments emitted from Ag and U targets, bombarded with 2.7-GeV protons, and 1.05-GeV/nucleon alpha particles and 16O ions. All cross sections increase dramatically with projectile mass. No narrow peaks are found in the angular distributions or in the energy spectra.
Double-differential cross sections have been measured for high-energy p, d, t, 3He, and 4He particles emitted from uranium targets irradiated with 20Ne ions at energies of 250, 400, and 2100 MeV/nucleon and 4He ions at 400 MeV/nucleon. By using the shape and yield of the proton energy spectra, the shape and yield of the d, t, 3He, and 4He energy spectra can be deduced at all measured angles for all incident projectile energies by assuming that they are formed by a coalescence of cascade nucleons, using a model analogous to that of Butler and Pearson, and Schwarzschild and Zupancic-caron.
A simple model is proposed for the emission of nucleons with velocities intermediate between those of the target and projectile. In this model, the nucleons which are mutually swept out from the target and projectile form a hot quasiequilibrated fireball which decays as an ideal gas. The overall features of the proton-inclusive spectra from 250- and 400-MeV/nucleon 20Ne ions and 400-MeV/nucleon 4He ions interacting with uranium are fitted without any adjustable parameters.
The energy spectra of protons and light nuclei produced by the interaction of 4He and 20Ne projectiles with Al and U targets have been investigated at incident energies ranging from 0.25 to 2.1 GeV per nucleon. Single fragment inclusive spectra have been obtained at angles between 25° and 150°, in the energy range from 30 to 150 MeV/nucleon. The multiplicity of intermediate and high energy charged particles was determined in coincidence with the measured fragments. In a separate study, fragment spectra were obtained in the evaporation energy range from 12C and 20Ne bombardment of uranium. We observe structureless, exponentially decaying spectra throughout the range of studied fragment masses. There is evidence for two major classes of fragments; one with emission at intermediate temperature from a system moving slowly in the lab frame, and the other with high temperature emission from a system propagating at a velocity intermediate between target and projectile. The high energy proton spectra are fairly well reproduced by a nuclear fireball model based on simple geometrical, kinematical, and statistical assumptions. Light cluster emission is also discussed in the framework of statistical models. NUCLEAR REACTIONS U(20Ne,X), E=250 MeV/nucl.; U(20Ne,X), U(α,X) E=400 MeV/nucl.; U(20Ne,X), Al(20Ne,X), E=2.1 GeV/nucl.; measured σ(E,θ), X=p, d, t, 3He,4He. U(20Ne,X), U(α,X), E=400 MeV/nucl.; U(20Ne,X), E=2.1 GeV/nucl.; measured σ(E, θ), Li to O. U(20Ne,X), U(12C,X), E=2.1 GeV/nucl.; measured σ(E, 90°), 4He to B. Nuclear fireballs, coalescence, thermodynamics of light nuclei production.
Particle production in central Pb+Pb collisions was studied with the NA49 large acceptance spectrometer at the CERN SPS at beam energies of 20, 30, 40, 80, and 158 GeV per nucleon. A change of the energy dependence is observed around 30A GeV for the yields of pions and strange particles as well as for the shapes of the transverse mass spectra. At present only a reaction scenario with onset of deconfinement is able to reproduce the measurements.
Das Tetralemma des Rechts : zur Möglichkeit einer Selbstbeschränkung des Kommunikationssystems Recht
(2000)
Was tut das Recht wenn es nichts tut? In diese Frage hat Niklas Luhmann das Problem gekleidet, wie ein judicial self-restraint unter Geltung des Justizverweigerungsverbotes denkbar ist. Eine Beantwortung dieser Frage aus Sicht einer Systemtheorie, die das Recht als operativ geschlossenes Kommunikationssystem im Rahmen einer auf der Erkenntnistheorie des radikalen Konstruktivismus fußenden Theorie der Gesellschaft zu erfassen sucht (Recht als autopoietisches System), hat Luhmann zwar angerissen, aber nicht befriedigend zu Ende gedacht. Besonders interessant ist diese Frage vor dem Hintergrund der Diskussion um ein prozedurales Rechtsparadigma, welches angesichts der gegenwärtigen gesellschaftlichen Umbrüche das überkommene materiale Paradigma ablösen soll (Prozeduralisierung des Rechts). Es erscheint daher reizvoll, auf der Suche nach Antworten einen Beitrag sowohl zur Systemtheorie des Rechts als auch zu einer Theorie des prozeduralen Rechts zu leisten.
Reflexive transnational law : the privatisation of civil law and the civilisation of private law
(2002)
The author examines the emergence of a transnational private law in alternative dispute resolution bodies and private norm formulating agencies from a reflexive law perspective. After introducing the concept of reflexive law he applies the idea of law as a communicative system to the ongoing debate on the existence of a New Law Merchant or lex mercatoria. He then discusses some features of international commercial arbitration (e.g. the lack of transparency) which hinder self-reference (autopoiesis) and thus the production of legal certainty in lex mercatoria as an autonomous legal system. He then contrasts these findings with the Domain Name Dispute Resolution System, which as opposed to Lex Mercatoria was rationally planned and highly formally organised by WIPO and ICANN, and which is allowing for self-reference and thus is designed as an autopoietic legal system, albeit with a very limited scope, i.e. the interference of abusive domain name registrations with trademarks (cybersquatting). From the comparison of both examples the author derives some preliminary ideas regarding a theory of reflexive transnational law, suggesting that the established general trend of privatisation of civil law need to be accompanied by a civilisation of private law, i.e. the constitutionalization of transnational private regimes by embedding them into a procedural constitution of freedom.
"Nicht-Ereignisse", Lebensenttäuschungen aufgrund des dauerhaften Ausbleibens erwünschter Ereignisse oder des Nicht-Erreichens von bedeutsamen Lebenszielen, können zu existenziellen Krisen führen. Die Autoren haben 40 Personen befragt und an ihrem Beispiel die Bewältigungsprozesse solcher Krisen untersucht, die z.B. durch ungewollte Kinderlosigkeit oder eine ausgebliebene berufliche Karriere ausgelöst worden waren. Dabei fanden sie verschiedene Prozesshilfen: kognitive und emotionale Verarbeitungsprozesse, soziale Unterstützung, Ersatzaktivitäten und pragmatisches Handeln. Alle Befragten berichteten von Entwicklungsgewinnen aufgrund der Krise und ihrer Bewältigung.
Die Zunahme an Gewalttaten, insbesondere durch Kinder und Jugendliche, wird in der öffentlichen und pädagogischen Diskussion weithin beklagt. Zwar zeigen zeitvergleichende Analysen, dass von einer dramatischen Erhöhung der Gewalhandlungen keine Rede sein kann; eher ist die öffentliche Sensibilität für derartige Vorfälle gestiegen. Andererseits gibt es erschreckende Beispiele für besonders brutale Übergriffe, die im öffentlichen Bewusstsein naturgemäß dominieren. Eindeutig zugenommen haben in den letzten Jahren politisch motivierte Gewalttaten, insbesondere mit rechtsextremistischem Hintergrund. Doch unabhängig davon, ob und wo die Zahl der Gewalthandlungen angestiegen ist, beinhaltet jede einzelne Tat einen Angriff auf die Menschenwürde und die politische Kultur und ruft deshalb nach Gegenmaßnahmen.
Attribution and detection of anthropogenic climate change using a backpropagation neural network
(2002)
The climate system can be regarded as a dynamic nonlinear system. Thus traditional linear statistical methods are not suited to describe the nonlinearities of this system which renders it necessary to find alternative statistical techniques to model those nonlinear properties. In addition to an earlier paper on this subject (WALTER et al., 1998), the problem of attribution and detection of the observed climate change is addressed here using a nonlinear Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN). In addition to potential anthropogenic influences on climate (CO2-equivalent concentrations, called greenhouse gases, GHG and SO2 emissions) natural influences on surface air temperature (variations of solar activity, volcanism and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon) are integrated into the simulations as well. It is shown that the adaptive BPN algorithm captures the dynamics of the climate system, i.e. global and area weighted mean temperature anomalies, to a great extent. However, free parameters of this network architecture have to be optimized in a time consuming trial-and-error process. The simulation quality obtained by the BPN exceeds the results of those from a linear model by far; the simulation quality on the global scale amounts to 84% explained variance. Additionally the results of the nonlinear algorithm are plausible in a physical sense, i.e. amplitude and time structure. Nevertheless they cover a broad range, e.g. the GHG-signal on the global scale ranges from 0.37 K to 1.65 K warming for the time period 1856-1998. However the simulated amplitudes are situated within the discussed range (HOUGHTON et al., 2001). Additionally the combined anthropogenic effect corresponds to the observed increase in temperature for the examined time period. In addition to that, the BPN succeeds with the detection of anthropogenic induced climate change on a high significance level. Therefore the concept of neural networks can be regarded as a suitable nonlinear statistical tool for modeling and diagnosing the climate system.
Vielleicht hätte sich außerhalb der Fachwissenschaft niemand für das Weltklimaproblem interessiert, wären da nicht zwei brisante, miteinander gekoppelte Fakten: Die Menschheit ist hochgradig von der Gunst des Klimas abhängig. Es kann uns daher nicht gleichgültig sein, was mit unserem Klima geschieht. Und: Die Menschheit ist mehr und mehr dazu übergegangen, das Klima auch selbst zu beeinflussen. Daraus erwächst uns allen eine besondere Verantwortung. ...
Wenn sich beim Klimagipfel in Den Haag [genauer bei der nun schon 6. Vertragstaatenkonferenz zur Klimaschutzkonvention der Vereinten Nationen] nun wieder die Delegationen aus fast allen Staaten der Welt treffen, um über Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu beraten, dann schwingt auch immer die Frage mit: Sind solche Maßnahmen wirklich notwendig? Sollen wir nicht einfach warten, bis wir mehr, ja vielleicht alles wissen? ...
Die Zunahme der Konzentration von CO2 und anderen "Treibhausgasen" in der Atmosphäre ist unzweifelhaft, und ebenso unzweifelhaft reagiert das Klima darauf. Christian-Dietrich Schönwiese, Professor für Meteorologische Umweltforschung und Klimatologie an der Universität Frankfurt am Main, sieht dringenden politischen Handlungsbedarf und plädiert gleichzeitig dafür, die Debatte rund um den Klimaschutz zu versachlichen.
Die öffentliche Klimadebatte scheint sich zu verselbständigen. Abgehoben von den Erkenntnissen der Fachwissenschaftler reden die einen von der "Klimakatastrophe", die uns demnächst mit voller Wucht treffen wird, wenn wir nicht sofort alles ganz anders machen; Panik ist ihnen das rechte Mittel, Aufmerksamkeit zu erregen. Die anderen sehen im "Klimaschwindel" einen Vorwand für Forschungsgelder und zusätzliche Steuerbelastung der Wirtschaft; ihre Strategie ist Verwirrung und Verharmlosung. Mit der Fixierung auf solche Extrempositionen werden wir den Herausforderungen der Zukunft sicherlich nicht gerecht. Höchste Zeit für eine Versachlichung und für einen klärenden Beitrag zum Verwirrspiel "Klima".
Temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events in time series of observed precipitation are investigated. The analysis is based on a European gridded data set and a German station-based data set of recent monthly totals (1896=1899–1995=1998). Two approaches are used. First, values above certain defined thresholds are counted for the first and second halves of the observation period. In the second step time series components, such as trends, are removed to obtain a deeper insight into the causes of the observed changes. As an example, this technique is applied to the time series of the German station Eppenrod. It arises that most of the events concern extreme wet months whose frequency has significantly increased in winter. Whereas on the European scale the other seasons also show this increase, especially in autumn, in Germany an insignificant decrease in the summer and autumn seasons is found. Moreover it is demonstrated that the increase of extreme wet months is reflected in a systematic increase in the variance and the Weibull probability density function parameters, respectively.
Simulation of global temperature variations and signal detection studies using neural networks
(1998)
The concept of neural network models (NNM) is a statistical strategy which can be used if a superposition of any forcing mechanisms leads to any effects and if a sufficient related observational data base is available. In comparison to multiple regression analysis (MRA), the main advantages are that NNM is an appropriate tool also in the case of non-linear cause-effect relations and that interactions of the forcing mechanisms are allowed. In comparison to more sophisticated methods like general circulation models (GCM), the main advantage is that details of the physical background like feedbacks can be unknown. Neural networks learn from observations which reflect feedbacks implicitly. The disadvantage, of course, is that the physical background is neglected. In addition, the results prove to be sensitively dependent from the network architecture like the number of hidden neurons or the initialisation of learning parameters. We used a supervised backpropagation network (BPN) with three neuron layers, an unsupervised Kohonen network (KHN) and a combination of both called counterpropagation network (CPN). These concepts are tested in respect to their ability to simulate the observed global as well as hemispheric mean surface air temperature annual variations 1874 - 1993 if parameter time series of the following forcing mechanisms are incorporated : equivalent CO2 concentrations, tropospheric sulfate aerosol concentrations (both anthropogenic), volcanism, solar activity, and ENSO (all natural). It arises that in this way up to 83% of the observed temperature variance can be explained, significantly more than by MRA. The implication of the North Atlantic Oscillation does not improve these results. On a global average, the greenhouse gas (GHG) signal so far is assessed to be 0.9 - 1.3 K (warming), the sulfate signal 0.2 - 0.4 K (cooling), results which are in close similarity to the GCM findings published in the recent IPCC Report. The related signals of the natural forcing mechanisms considered cover amplitudes of 0.1 - 0.3 K. Our best NNM estimate of the GHG doubling signal amounts to 2.1K, equilibrium, or 1.7 K, transient, respectively.