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High shares of intermittent renewable power generation in a European electricity system will require flexible backup power generation on the dominant diurnal, synoptic, and seasonal weather timescales. The same three timescales are already covered by today’s dispatchable electricity generation facilities, which are able to follow the typical load variations on the intra-day, intra-week, and seasonal timescales. This work aims to quantify the changing demand for those three backup flexibility classes in emerging large-scale electricity systems, as they transform from low to high shares of variable renewable power generation. A weather-driven modelling is used, which aggregates eight years of wind and solar power generation data as well as load data over Germany and Europe, and splits the backup system required to cover the residual load into three flexibility classes distinguished by their respective maximum rates of change of power output. This modelling shows that the slowly flexible backup system is dominant at low renewable shares, but its optimized capacity decreases and drops close to zero once the average renewable power generation exceeds 50% of the mean load. The medium flexible backup capacities increase for modest renewable shares, peak at around a 40% renewable share, and then continuously decrease to almost zero once the average renewable power generation becomes larger than 100% of the mean load. The dispatch capacity of the highly flexible backup system becomes dominant for renewable shares beyond 50%, and reach their maximum around a 70% renewable share. For renewable shares above 70% the highly flexible backup capacity in Germany remains at its maximum, whereas it decreases again for Europe. This indicates that for highly renewable large-scale electricity systems the total required backup capacity can only be reduced if countries share their excess generation and backup power.
The transition to a future electricity system based primarily on wind and solar PV is examined for all regions in the contiguous US. We present optimized pathways for the build-up of wind and solar power for least backup energy needs as well as for least cost obtained with a simplified, lightweight model based on long-term high resolution weather-determined generation data. In the absence of storage, the pathway which achieves the best match of generation and load, thus resulting in the least backup energy requirements, generally favors a combination of both technologies, with a wind/solar PV (photovoltaics) energy mix of about 80/20 in a fully renewable scenario. The least cost development is seen to start with 100% of the technology with the lowest average generation costs first, but with increasing renewable installations, economically unfavorable excess generation pushes it toward the minimal backup pathway. Surplus generation and the entailed costs can be reduced significantly by combining wind and solar power, and/or absorbing excess generation, for example with storage or transmission, or by coupling the electricity system to other energy sectors.
The present work deals with the integration of variable renewable energy sources, wind and solar energy into the European and US power grid. In contrast to other networks, such as the gas supply mains, the electricity network is practically not able to store energy. Generation and consumption therefore always have tobe balanced. Currently, the load curve is viewed as a rigid boundary condition, which must be followed by the generation system. The basic idea of the approach followed here is that weather-dependent generation causes a shift of focus of the electricity supply. At high shares of wind and solar generation, the role of the rigid boundary condition falls to the residual load, that is, the remaining load after subtraction of renewable generation. The goal is to include the weather dependence as well as the load curve in the design of the future electricity supply.
After a brief introduction, the present work first turns to the underlying weather-, generation and load data, which form the starting point of the analysis. In addition, some basic concepts of energy economics are discussed, which are needed in the following.
In the main part of the thesis, several algorithms are developed to determine the load flow in a network with a high share of wind and solar energy and to determine the backup supply needed at the same time. Minimization of the energy needed from controllable power plants, the capacity variable power plants, and the capacity of storing serve as guiding principles. In addition, the optimization problem of grid extensions is considered. It is shown that it can be formulated as a convex optimization problem. It turns out that with an optimized, international transmission network which is about four times the currently available transmission capacity, much of the potential savings in backup energy (about 40%) in Europe can be reached. In contrast, a twelvefold increase the transmission capacity would be necessary for a complete implementation of all possible savings in dispatchable power plants.
The reduction of the dispatchable generation capacity and storage capacity, however, presents a greater challenge. Due to correlations in the generation of time series of individual countries, it may be reduced only with difficulty, and by only about 30%.
In the following, the influence of the relative share of wind and solar energy is illuminated and examined the interplay with the line capacitance. A stronger transmission network tends to lead to a higher proportion of wind energy being better integrated. With increasing line capacity, the optimal mix in Europe therefore shifts from about 70% to 80% wind. Similar analyses are carried out for the US with comparable results.
In addition, the cost of the overall system can be reduced. It is interesting at this point that the advantages for the network integration may outweigh higher production costs of individual technologies, so that it is more favourable from the viewpoint of the entire system to use the more expensive technologies.
Finally, attention is given to the flexibility of the dispatchable power plants. Starting from a Fourier-like decomposition of the load curve as it was a few years ago, when hardly renewable generation capacity was present, capacities of different flexibility classes of dispatchable power plant are calculated. For this purpose, it is assumed that the power plant park is able to follow the load curve without significant surplusses or deficits. From this examination, it is derived what capacity must at least be available without having to resort to a detailed database of existing power plants.
Assuming a strong European cooperation, with a stronger international transmission network, the dispatchable power capacity can be significantly reduced while maintaining security of supply and generating relatively small surplusses in dispatchable power plants.