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Natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa suffer from a bad reputation. Oil and diamonds, particularly, have been blamed for a number of Africa’s illnesses such as poverty, corruption, dictatorship and war. This paper outlines the different areas and transmission channels of how this so-called “resource curse” is said to materialize. By assessing empirical evidence on sub-Saharan Africa it concludes that the resource curse theory fails to sufficiently explain why and how several countries have not or only partly been affected by the “curse”. Theoretically, the paper argues that whether or not natural resources are detrimental to a country’s socio-economic and political development depends on a number of contextual variables, divided into country-specific conditions and resource-specific conditions (type, degree/level of abundance and dependence, resource revenue management, involved companies etc.). Methodologically, a future research agenda needs to examine the complex interplay of these contextual variables by adding sophisticated comparative research designs, especially “small and medium N” comparisons, to the tool box which has been widely confined to the juxtaposition of “large N” and country case studies.
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information or beliefs on volatility. Using high-frequency intraday data, we estimate the volatility effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of the stock returns of large European banks as a function of the quality of available public information about the banks. We hypothesise that, as the publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence should increase, as the private information (beliefs) of investors becomes more important. We find strong support for this idea in the data. We argue that the results have implications for debate surrounding the opacity of banks and the transparency requirements that may be imposed on banks under Pillar III of the New Basel Accord.
This paper traces the location of foreign banks in Germany from 1949 to 2006. As suggested by new economic geography models we find a ‘u’-shaped concentration of foreign banks in Germany. Only after a competition between several cities, Frankfurt has emerged as the pre-eminent financial centre, triggered by the ‘historical event’ of setting up the German central bank in Frankfurt. After a strong increase, Frankfurt’s share in the location of foreign banks in Germany decreases slowly but significantly since the mid 1980’s. We conclude that there will be a lesser role in Europe for secondtier financial centres in the future.
Many tax-codes around the world allow for special taxable treatment of savings in retirement accounts. In particular, profits in retirement accounts are usually tax exempt which allow investors to increase an asset’s return by holding it in such a retirement account. While the existing literature on asset location shows that risk-free bonds are usually the preferred asset to hold in a retirement account, we explain how the tax exemption of profits in retirement accounts affects private investors’ asset allocation. We show that total final wealth can be decomposed into what the investor would have earned in a taxable account and what is due to the tax exemption of profits in the retirement account. The tax exemption of profits can thus be considered a tax-gift which is similar to an implicit bond holding. As this tax-gift’s impact on total final wealth decreases over time, so does the investor’s equity exposure.
This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the first difference in the daily distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification.
We compute the optimal dynamic asset allocation policy for a retiree with Epstein-Zin utility. The retiree can decide how much he consumes and how much he invests in stocks, bonds, and annuities. Pricing the annuities we account for asymmetric mortality beliefs and administration expenses. We show that the retiree does not purchase annuities only once but rather several times during retirement (gradual annuitization). We analyze the case in which the retiree is restricted to buy annuities only once and has to perform a (complete or partial) switching strategy. This restriction reduces both the utility and the demand for annuities.
This paper proposes a possible way of assessing the effect of interest rate dynamics on changes in the decision-making approach, communication strategy and operational framework of a Central bank. Through a GARCH specification we show that the USA and Euro area displayed a limited but significant spillover of volatility from money market to longer-term rates. We then checked the stability of this phenomenon in the most recent period of improved policymaking and found empirical evidence that the transmission of overnight volatility along the yield curve vanished soon after specific policy changes of the FED and ECB.
Die erstmalige Übertragung der Regierungsverantwortung im Jahr 1998 an eine Koalition aus SPD und Bündnis90/Die Grünen auf der Bundesebene hat Erwartungen geweckt, dass sich die gesundheitspolitische Ausrichtung stärker an den Interessen von Patientinnen und Patienten orientierten würde als bisher üblich. Die Dominanz der Opposition im Bundesrat jedoch erforderte eine große Reformkoalition, um strukturelle Veränderungen im deutschen Gesundheitswesen durchsetzen zu können. Die Analyse politischer Dokumente und der wichtigsten Gesetzesvorhaben seit dem Beginn der rot-grünen Regierungskoalition zeigt, dass einerseits die individuellen und kollektiven Beteiligungsrechte von Patienten und Patientinnen sowie Patientenverbände gestärkt wurden, andererseits aber auch die finanziellen Belastungen von Erkrankten durch erhöhte Zuzahlungen und vermehrte Leistungsausgrenzungen gestiegen sind. Gemessen an den hohen Standards der Weltgesundheitsorganisation sind daher die Ergebnisse der rot-grünen Regierungszeit als ambivalent zu bewerten.
The Land and Water Development Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany, are cooperating in the development of a global irrigation-mapping facility. This report describes an update of the Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas for the continents of Africa and Europe as well as for the countries Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay in Latin America. For this update, an new inventory of subnational irrigation statistics was compiled. The reference year for the statistics is 2000. Adding up the irrigated areas per country as documented in the report gives a total of 48.8 million ha while the total area equipped for irrigation at the global scale is 278.8 million ha. The total number of subnational units in the inventory used for this update is 16 822 while the number of subnational units in the global inventory increased to 26 909. In order to distribute the irrigation statistics per subnational unit, digital spatial data layers and printed maps were used. Irrigation maps were derived from project reports, irrigation subsector studies, and books related to irrigation and drainage. These maps were digitized and compared with satellite images of many regions. In areas without spatial information on irrigated areas, additional information was used to locate areas where irrigation is likely, such as land-cover and land-use maps that indicate agricultural areas or areas with crops that are usually grown under irrigation.
We model sequential synchronous circuits on the logical level by signal-processing programs in an extended lambda calculus Lpor with letrec, constructors, case and parallel or (por) employing contextual equivalence. The model describes gates as (parallel) boolean operators, memory using a delay, which in turn is modeled as a shift of the list of signals, and permits also constructive cycles due to the parallel or. It opens the possibility of a large set of program transformations that correctly transform the expressions and thus the represented circuits and provides basic tools for equivalence testing and optimizing circuits. A further application is the correct manipulation by transformations of software components combined with circuits. The main part of our work are proof methods for correct transformations of expressions in the lambda calculus Lpor, and to propose the appropriate program transformations.
This paper extends the internal frank report 28 as follows: It is shown that for a call-by-need lambda calculus LRCCP-Lambda extending the calculus LRCC-Lambda by por, i.e in a lambda-calculus with letrec, case, constructors, seq and por, copying can be done without restrictions, and also that call-by-need and call-by-name strategies are equivalent w.r.t. contextual equivalence.
Call-by-need lambda calculi with letrec provide a rewritingbased operational semantics for (lazy) call-by-name functional languages. These calculi model the sharing behavior during evaluation more closely than let-based calculi that use a fixpoint combinator. In a previous paper we showed that the copy-transformation is correct for the small calculus LR-Lambda. In this paper we demonstrate that the proof method based on a calculus on infinite trees for showing correctness of instantiation operations can be extended to the calculus LRCC-Lambda with case and constructors, and show that copying at compile-time can be done without restrictions. We also show that the call-by-need and call-by-name strategies are equivalent w.r.t. contextual equivalence. A consequence is correctness of all the transformations like instantiation, inlining, specialization and common subexpression elimination in LRCC-Lambda. We are confident that the method scales up for proving correctness of copy-related transformations in non-deterministic lambda calculi if restricted to "deterministic" subterms.
This paper proves several generic variants of context lemmas and thus contributes to improving the tools to develop observational semantics that is based on a reduction semantics for a language. The context lemmas are provided for may- as well as two variants of mustconvergence and a wide class of extended lambda calculi, which satisfy certain abstract conditions. The calculi must have a form of node sharing, e.g. plain beta reduction is not permitted. There are two variants, weakly sharing calculi, where the beta-reduction is only permitted for arguments that are variables, and strongly sharing calculi, which roughly correspond to call-by-need calculi, where beta-reduction is completely replaced by a sharing variant. The calculi must obey three abstract assumptions, which are in general easily recognizable given the syntax and the reduction rules. The generic context lemmas have as instances several context lemmas already proved in the literature for specific lambda calculi with sharing. The scope of the generic context lemmas comprises not only call-by-need calculi, but also call-by-value calculi with a form of built-in sharing. Investigations in other, new variants of extended lambda-calculi with sharing, where the language or the reduction rules and/or strategy varies, will be simplified by our result, since specific context lemmas are immediately derivable from the generic context lemma, provided our abstract conditions are met.
We develop a utility based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities, and unemployment. In doing so, we combine two strands of research: the New Keynesian model with its focus on nominal rigidities, and the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model, with its focus on labor market frictions and unemployment. In developing this model, we proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that, under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect on unemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. We then focus on the implications of alternative real wage setting mechanisms for fluctuations in unemployment. We then introduce nominal rigidities in the form of staggered price setting by firms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discuss how it is influenced by the presence of real wage rigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment stabilization, and we draw the implications for optimal monetary policy. JEL Classification: E32, E50
We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages in line with an optimizing rationale in a New Keynesian closed economy DSGE model. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques for German data from the late 1970s to present. Given the pre-euro heterogeneity in wage bargaining we take this as the first-best approximation at hand for modelling monetary policy in the presence of labor market frictions in the current European regime. In our framework, we find that labor market structure is of prime importance for the evolution of the business cycle, and for monetary policy in particular. Yet shocks originating in the labor market itself may contain only limited information for the conduct of stabilization policy. JEL Classification: E32, E52, J64, C11
Mortgage markets, collateral constraints, and monetary policy: do institutional factors matter?
(2006)
We study the role of institutional characteristics of mortgage markets in affecting the strength and timing of the effects of monetary policy shocks on house prices and consumption in a sample of OECD countries. We document three facts: (1) there is significant divergence in the structure of mortgage markets across the main industrialised countries; (2) at the business cycle frequency, the correlation between consumption and house prices increases with the degree of flexibility/development of mortgage markets; (3) the transmission of monetary policy shocks on consumption and house prices is stronger in countries with more flexible/developed mortgage markets. We then build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with price stickiness and collateral constraints, where the ability of borrowing is endogenously linked to the nominal value of a durable asset (housing). We study how the response of consumption to monetary policy shocks is affected by alternative values of three key institutional parameters: (i) down-payment rate; (ii) mortgage repayment rate; (iii) interest rate mortgage structure (variable vs. fixed interest rate). In line with our empirical evidence, the sensitivity of consumption to monetary policy shocks increases with lower values of (i) and (ii), and is larger under a variable-rate mortgage structure. JEL Classification: E21, E44, E52
We study the problem of a policymaker who seeks to set policy optimally in an economy where the true economic structure is unobserved, and policymakers optimally learn from their observations of the economy. This is a classic problem of learning and control, variants of which have been studied in the past, but little with forward-looking variables which are a key component of modern policy-relevant models. As in most Bayesian learning problems, the optimal policy typically includes an experimentation component reflecting the endogeneity of information. We develop algorithms to solve numerically for the Bayesian optimal policy (BOP). However the BOP is only feasible in relatively small models, and thus we also consider a simpler specification we term adaptive optimal policy (AOP) which allows policymakers to update their beliefs but shortcuts the experimentation motive. In our setting, the AOP is significantly easier to compute, and in many cases provides a good approximation to the BOP. We provide a simple example to illustrate the role of learning and experimentation in an MJLQ framework. JEL Classification: E42, E52, E58
The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close enough to model-consistency. It is found that commitment continues to be important for optimal policy, that the optimal long-run inflation target is unaffected by the degree of potential distortion of beliefs, and that optimal policy is even more history-dependent than if rational expectations are assumed. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E42
I employ a large set of scanner price data collected in retail stores to document that (i) although the average magnitude of price changes is large, a substantial number of price changes are small in absolute value; (ii) the distribution of non-zero price changes has fat tails; and (iii) stores tend to adjust prices of goods in narrow product categories simultaneously. I extend the standard menu costs model to a multi-product setting in which firms face economies of scale in the technology of adjusting prices. The model, because of its ability to replicate this additional set of micro-economic facts, can generate aggregate fluctuations much larger than those in standard menu costs economies. JEL Classification: E31, E32
This paper uses factor-augmented vector autoregressions (FAVAR) estimated using a large data set to disentangle fluctuations in disaggregated consumer and producer prices which are due to macroeconomic factors from those due to sectorial conditions. This allows us to provide consistent estimates of the effects of US monetary policy on disaggregated prices. While sectorial prices respond quickly to sector-specific shocks, we find that for a large number of price series, there is a significant delay in the response of prices to monetary policy shocks. In addition, price responses display little evidence of a “price puzzle,” contrary to existing studies based on traditional VARs. The observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power, as predicted by models with monopolistic competition. JEL Classification: E32, E52
Economists are beginning to investigate the causes and consequences of financial illiteracy to better understand why retirement planning is lacking and why so many households arrive close to retirement with little or no wealth. Our review reveals that many households are unfamiliar with even the most basic economic concepts needed to make saving and investment decisions. Such financial illiteracy is widespread: the young and older people in the United States and other countries appear woefully under-informed about basic financial concepts, with serious implications for saving, retirement planning, mortgages, and other decisions. In response, governments and several nonprofit organizations have undertaken initiatives to enhance financial literacy. The experience of other countries, including a saving campaign in Japan as well as the Swedish pension privatization program, offers insights into possible roles for financial literacy and saving programs. JEL Classification: D80, D91, G11
A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-by-period Nash bargaining outcome in the conventional formulation. An interesting side-product is the emergence of spillover effects of average wages on the bargaining process. We then show that a reasonable calibration of the model can account well for the cyclical behavior of wages and labor market activity observed in the data. The spillover effects turn out to be important in this respect. JEL Classification: E32, E50, J64
This paper studies a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations in an environment of low interest rates and deflationary pressures. We show that small changes in the public’s beliefs about the future inflation target of the government can lead to large swings in both inflation and output. This effect is much larger at low interest rates than under regular circumstances. This highlights the importance of effective communication policy at zero interest rates. We argue that confusing communications by the US Federal Reserve, the President of the United States, and key administration officials about future price objectives were responsible for the sharp recession in the US in 1937-38, one of the sharpest recessions in US economic history. Poor communication policy is the mistake of 1937. Before committing the mistake of 1937 the US policy makers faced economic conditions that are similar in some respect to those confronted by Japanese policy makers in the first half of 2006. JEL Classification: E32, E52, E61
In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy, which we attribute both to differences in the policy actions undertaken, and to the transparency and credibility of the monetary authorities. We attempt to account for the salient features of each episode within the context of a stylized DSGE model. Our model simulations indicate how a more predictable policy of gradual deflation could have helped avoid the sharp post-WWI depression. But our analysis also suggests that the strong argument for gradualism under a transparent monetary regime becomes less persuasive if the monetary authority lacks credibility; in this case, an aggressive policy stance (as under Volcker) can play a useful signalling role by making a policy shift more apparent to private agents. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52
We analyse a 2-period competitive insurance market which is characterized by the simultaneous presence of standard moral hazard and adverse selection with regard to consumer time preferences. It is shown that there exists an equilibrium in which patient consumers use high effort and buy a profit-making insurance contract with high coverage, whereas impatient consumers use low effort and buy a contract with low coverage or even remain uninsured. This finding may help to explain why positive profits and the opposite of adverse selection with regard to risk types can sometimes be observed empirically. JEL Classification: D82, G22
The European Central Bank
(2007)
The establishment of the ECB and with it the launch of the euro has arguably been a unique endeavor in economic history, representing an important experiment in central banking. This note aims to summarize some of the main lessons learned from this experiment and sketch some of the prospects for the ECB. It is written for "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics", 2nd edition. JEL Classification: E52, E58
We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes, including trends and bursts in spillovers, and both turn out to be empirically important. In particular, in an analysis of sixteen global equity markets from the early 1990s to the present, we find striking evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts. JEL Classification: F30, G15, F36
Regional inflation dynamics within and across Euro area countries and a comparison with the US
(2006)
We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker’s understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, C33
This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects’ on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits’ in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegrationbased estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C22
We show theoretically that income redistribution benefits borrowingconstrained individuals more than is implied by standard relative-income and uninsurable-risk considerations. Empirically, we find in international opinion-survey data that younger and lower-income individuals express stronger support for government redistribution in countries where consumer credit is less easily available. This evidence supports our theoretical perspective if such individuals are more strongly affected by tighter credit supply, in that expectations of higher incomes in the future increase their propensity to borrow. JEL Classification: E21
We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro economic fundamentals in an intensity based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980–2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, these variables appear to explain part of the credit cycle. As our main contribution, we test for the correct dynamic specification of these models. In all cases, the hypothesis of correct dynamic specification is strongly rejected. Moreover, accounting for dynamic mis-specification, many of the variables thought to explain the credit cycle, turn out to be insignificant. The main exceptions are GDP growth, and to some extent stock returns and stock return volatilities. Their economic significance appears low, however. This raises the puzzle of what macro-economic fundamentals explain default and rating dynamics. JEL Classification: G11, G21
We examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of data on mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. banking sector. We provide estimates for the option value that the target bank has in waiting for a higher bid instead of accepting an initial tender offer. We find empirical support for a model that estimates the value of an option to wait in accepting an initial tender offer. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to accept an offer that has a mean value of almost 12.5% for a sample of 424 mergers and acquisitions between 1997 and 2005 in the U.S. banking industry. Regression analysis reveals that the option price is related to both the price to book market and the free cash flow of target banks. We conclude that it is certainly in the shareholders best interest if subsequent offers are awaited. JEL Classification: G34, C10
Deviations from normality in financial return series have led to the development of alternative portfolio selection models. One such model is the downside risk model, whereby the investor maximizes his return given a downside risk constraint. In this paper we empirically observe the international equity allocation for the downside risk investor using 9 international markets’ returns over the last 34 years. The results are stable for various robustness checks. Investors may think globally, but instead act locally, due to greater downside risk. The results provide an alternative view of the home bias phenomenon, documented in international financial markets. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G15
The paper constructs a global monetary aggregate, namely the sum of the key monetary aggregates of the G5 economies (US, Euro area, Japan, UK, and Canada), and analyses its indicator properties for global output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach we find that after a monetary policy shock output declines temporarily, with the downward effect reaching a peak within the second year, and the global monetary aggregate drops significantly. In addition, the price level rises permanently in response to a positive shock to the global liquidity aggregate. The similarity of our results with those found in country studies might supports the use of a global monetary aggregate as a summary measure of worldwide monetary trends. JEL Classification: E52, F01
The effects of public policy programs which aim at internalizing spill-overs due to successful innovation are analyzed in a sequential double-sided moral hazard doublesided adverse selection framework. The central focus lies in analyzing their impact on contract design. We show that in our framework only ex post grants are a robust instrument for implementing the first-best situation, whereas the success of guarantee programs, ex ante grants and some types of investment grants depends strongly on the characteristics of the project: in certain cases they not only give no further incentives but even destroy contract mechanisms and so worsen the outcome. JEL Classification: D82, G24, G32, H25, H81
We propose a new decision criterion under risk in which people extract both utility from anticipatory feelings ex ante and disutility from disappointment ex post. The decision maker chooses his degree of optimism, given that more optimism raises both the utility of ex ante feelings and the risk of disappointment ex post. We characterize the optimal beliefs and the preferences under risk generated by this mental process and apply this criterion to a simple portfolio choice/insurance problem. We show that these preferences are consistent with the preference reversal in the Allais’ paradoxes and predict that the decision maker takes on less risk compared to an expected utility maximizer. This speaks to the equity premium puzzle and to the preference for low deductibles in insurance contracts. Keywords: endogenous beliefs, anticipatory feeling, disappointment, optimism, decision under risk, portfolio allocation.
Informational economies of scope between lending and underwriting are a mixed blessing for universal banks. While they can reduce the cost of raising capital for a firm, they also reduce incentives in the underwriting business. We show that tying lending and underwriting helps to overcome this dilemma. First, risky debt in tied deals works as a bond to increase underwriting incentives. Second, with limitations on contracting, tying reduces the underwriting rents as the additional incentives from debt can substitute for monetary incentives. In addition, reducing the yield on the tied debt is a means to pay for the rent in the underwriting business and to transfer informational benefits to the client. Thus, tying is a double edged sword for universal banks. It helps to compete against specialized investment banks, but it can reduce the rent to be earned in investment banking when universal banks compete against each other. We derive several empirical predictions regarding the characteristics of tied deals. JEL Classification: G21, G24, D49
Mutual insurance companies and stock insurance companies are different forms of organized risk sharing: policyholders and owners are two distinct groups in a stock insurer, while they are one and the same in a mutual. This distinction is relevant to raising capital, selling policies, and sharing risk in the presence of financial distress. Up-front capital is necessary for a stock insurer to offer insurance at a fair premium, but not for a mutual. In the presence of an ownermanager conflict, holding capital is costly. Free-rider and commitment problems limit the degree of capitalization that a stock insurer can obtain. The mutual form, by tying sales of policies to the provision of capital, can overcome these problems at the potential cost of less diversified owners. JEL Classification: G22, G32
This study analyzes the short-term dynamic spillovers between the futures returns on the DAX, the DJ Eurostoxx 50 and the FTSE 100. It also examines whether economic news is one source of international stock return co-movements. In particular, we test whether stock market interdependencies are attributable to reactions of foreign traders to public economic information. Moreover, we analyze whether cross-market linkages remain the same or whether they do increase during periods in which economic news is released in one of the countries. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) there are clear short term international dynamic interactions among the European stock futures markets; (ii) foreign economic news affects domestic returns; (iii) futures returns adjust to news immediately; (iv) announcement timing of macroeconomic news matters; (v) stock market dynamic interactions do not increase at the time of the release of economic news; (vi) foreign investors react to the content of the news itself more than to the response of the domestic market to the national news; and (vii) contemporaneous correlation between futures returns changes at the time of macroeconomic releases. JEL Classification: G14, G15
Wir untersuchen, in welchem Ausmaß die Aktien deutscher Unternehmen im Zeitverlauf an ausländischen Börsen gehandelt werden. Es zeigt sich – nach anfänglich bedeutsamer Handelsaktivität im Ausland – ein ausgeprägter Rückfluss-Effekt nach Deutschland. Zweitnotierungen an ausländischen Börsen dienen der Verbreiterung der Aktionärsbasis und somit der Senkung der Kapitalkosten und letztendlich der Steigerung des Unternehmenswertes. Dazu ist ein ausreichendes Handelsvolumen an der ausländischen Börse unabdinglich. Daran gemessen sind die Auslandsnotierungen deutscher Unternehmen nicht erfolgreich. Dies ist jedoch nicht im gleichen Ausmaß für alle Unternehmen der Fall. Kleinere, wachsende Unternehmen und Unternehmen mit höherem Anteil des Auslandsumsatzes am Gesamtumsatz werden relativ stärker im Ausland gehandelt.
This paper provides new insights into the nature of loan securitization. We analyze the use of collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions by European banks from 1997 to 2004 andtry to identify the influence that various firm-specific and macroeconomic factors may have on an institution's securitization decision. We find that not only regulatory capital arbitrage under Basel I has been driving the market. Rather, our results suggest that loan securitization is an appropriate funding tool for banks with high risk and low liquidity. It may also have been used by commercial banks to indirectly access investment-bank activities and the associated gains.
Mein heutiger Vortrag kann nicht mehr als eine Momentaufnahme der Entwicklungen im europäischen Gesellschaftsrecht bieten. Ich beschränke mich dabei auf die rechtsetzende Tätigkeit der Organe der EU und hier insbesondere auf die Aktivitäten und Pläne der Kommission, blende also die Rechtsprechung des EuGH und die wissenschaftliche Debatte völlig aus.
Grenzüberschreitende Umstrukturierungen wurden bislang unter Nutzung traditioneller Strukturmodelle als Übernahmen oder Zusammenschluss zwischen Gleichen mit öffentlichen Erwerbsangeboten gegen bar oder Aktien vollzogen. Eine grenzüberschreitende Verschmelzung im rechtstechnischen Sinne war bislang in Deutschland nicht möglich. Die SEVIC-Entscheidung des EuGH, die Einführung der SE und demnächst die gesetzliche Regelung einer EU-weiten Verschmelzung ermöglichen auch grenzüberschreitende Verschmelzungen im rechtstechnischen Sinne. Der Verfasser stellt die traditionellen Strukturen eines grenzüberschreitenden Unternehmenszusammenschlusses dar und untersucht, welche praktische Bedeutung diese traditionellen Strukturen in Zukunft haben werden. Darüber hinaus wird untersucht, ob eine grenzüberschreitende Unternehmenszusammenführung nach den Grundsätzen des SEVIC-Entscheidung für die Praxis eine Alternative darstellt.
Zusammenfassung in Thesen 1. Der Wegzug von deutschen Gesellschaften in das EU-Ausland in Gestalt der Verlegung des Verwaltungssitzes führt nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht zur Auflösung der Gesellschaft, wenn die Sitzverlegung mit einem Statutenwechsel einhergeht. In der Mehrzahl der Fälle bleibt indessen deutsches Gesellschaftsrecht anwendbar. Die Auflösung der Gesellschaft ist hier allerdings gerichtlich zu erzwingen, sollte der inländische Satzungssitz nicht mehr durch §§ 5 Abs. 2 AktG, 4 a Abs. 2 GmbHG gerechtfertigt sein. Die Abkehr des geplanten „MoMiG“ von diesem Standpunkt ist rechtspolitisch zu begrüßen, aber nur im Verein mit einem generellen Übergang auch zur Gründungsanknüpfung im deutschen Kollisionsrecht sinnvoll, so wie dies der Deutsche Rat für Internationales Privatrecht vorschlägt. 2. Der Wegzug in Gestalt einer schlichten Verlagerung des Satzungssitzes einer nach deutschem Recht gegründeten Gesellschaft in das EU-Ausland ist nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht unzulässig. Rechtspolitisch ist die Einführung eines geregelten Verfahrens einer grenzüberschreitenden Satzungssitzverlegung zu befürworten, so wie dies der Deutsche Rat für Internationales Privatrecht vorschlägt. 3. Die „wilde“ Herausverschmelzung einer nach deutschem Recht gegründeten Gesellschaft – d.h. spiegelbildlich zur „SEVIC“ und außerhalb der geplanten §§ 122 a ff. UmwG – auf eine EU-ausländische Gesellschaft ist nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht unzulässig.
Bis zur Umsetzung der so genannten Verschmelzungsrichtlinie in nationales Recht stellt der Einsatz einer SE das einzige rechtssichere Instrumentarium zur Bewältigung von grenzüberschreitenden Unternehmenszusammenführungen in Form von Verschmelzungen in Europa dar. Derzeit gibt auch nur die SE ein rechtssicheres Verfahren zur Bewältigung von identitätswahrenden Sitzverlegungen innerhalb Europas an die Hand. Die Rechtsform der SE und ihre europäische Identität bieten daneben Vorteile, die ihre Beachtung nicht nur bei Fragen der grenzüberschreitenden Umstrukturierung, sondern auch allgemein bei Fragen der Rechtsformwahl gebieten.
Das 2. UmwG-ÄndG bringt hinsichtlich der grenzüberschreitenden Verschmelzung einen erheblichen Gewinn an Rechtssicherheit. Weil die §§ 122a ff. UmwG-E weitgehend eine getreue Umsetzung der IntVRiL darstellen, werden künftige transnationale Verschmelzungen erleichtert; dies jedenfalls dann, wenn auch die anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten die Richtlinie alsbald umsetzen. Anders als bei innerstaatlichen Verschmelzungen sind die für die Arbeitnehmer wesentlichen Informationen nicht im Verschmelzungsvertrag bzw. -plan, sondern im Verschmelzungsbericht enthalten. Dementsprechend ist dieser nicht verzichtbar. Sofern ein Verhandlungsverfahren über die künftige Mitbestimmung nach MgVG stattfindet, können sich die Anteilseigner die Bestätigung der dort erzielten Ergebnisse vorbehalten (§ 122g Abs. 1 UmwG-E), wenn die Verhandlungen im Zeitpunkt der Zustimmung zur Verschmelzung noch nicht beendet sind. Für die Bestätigung können andere Beschlussmodalitäten vorgesehen werden als für den Verschmelzungsbeschluss selbst. § 122c Abs. 2 Nr. 11, 12 UmwG-E ist dahingehend teleologisch zu reduzieren, dass die dort geforderten Angaben entfallen können, wenn sie für die Umsetzung und bilanzielle Abbildung der Verschmelzung nach den beteiligten Rechtsordnungen nicht erforderlich sind. Eine Zustimmung der Anteilseigner ausländischer Rechtsträger zur Durchführung eines Spruchverfahrens wird regelmäßig nicht zu erlangen sein. In diesem Fall sind die Gesellschafter des deutschen übertragenden Rechtsträgers – abweichend von § 14 Abs. 2 UmwG – auf die Anfechtungsklage verwiesen. Findet demgegenüber ein Spruchverfahren statt, insbesondere weil alle beteiligten Rechtsordnungen ein solches vorsehen, wird die vom Gesetzgeber gewünschte Zuständigkeitskonzentration kaum je zu erreichen sein. Regelmäßig werden nämlich die Gerichte in den Sitzstaaten sowohl des übertragenden als auch des übernehmenden Rechtsträgers international zuständig sein. Die Vorschrift des § 6c SpruchG-E ist dahingehend teleologisch zu reduzieren, dass ein gemeinsamer Vertreter nur für solche Anteilseigner zu bestellen ist, deren Zustimmung nach § 122h Abs. 1 UmwG-E zur Durchführung des Spruchverfahrens erforderlich ist. Auch in den vom 2. UmwG-ÄndG nicht geregelten Fälle internationaler Umwandlungen (insbesondere Verschmelzung unter Beteiligung von Personengesellschaften und Spaltung) kann weitgehend auf die in §§ 122a ff. UmwG-E enthaltenen Rechtsgedanken zurückgegriffen werden.
Mit Blick auf die liberale Theorie der Internationalen Beziehungen wird die Bedeutung von Medieninformation für außenpolitische Präferenzbildungsprozesse beleuchtet. Am Beispiel der Golfkrise 1990 und des Golfkrieges 1991 zeigt sich, dass von einer "frei deliberierenden" demokratischen Öffentlichkeit in den USA nicht unbedingt die Rede sein kann. Vielmehr bediente sich die Exekutive einer ausgefeilten "Medien(kriegs)politik", um den medialen Diskurs zu dominieren und die Meinungsbildung zu steuern. Dieser Befund stellt eine Herausforderung für die liberale Theorie dar: Wenn eine demokratische Öffentlichkeit nicht über ausgewogene Informationen verfügt, kann mit Blick auf militärische Gewalteinsätze nur eingeschränkt von demokratischer Kontrolle gesprochen werden. Ein amerikanischer Präsident, der mit seiner Medienpolitik den öffentlichen Diskurs über den Einsatz militärischer Gewalt dominieren kann, verfügt offensichtlich über größere Handlungsspielräume nach innen und außen, als die liberale Theorie bisher angenommen hat.
The sovereignty of the European nation states in the realm of security politics is gradually eroding. At the same time the European integration to a large degree influences the level of direct bilateral police cooperation, since cross-border crime has come to be perceived not as only a national, but as a common problem for the European nation states. At the German-Polish border, "Europe's Rio Grande", these high expectations concerning security policy are put into practice. With Poland's EU accession, Polish and German border guards are no longer spatially separated, but jointly control travellers. Joint patrols and contact points have already existed since 1998. On the one hand, the enforced meeting of German and Polish border policemen may help dismantle mutual prejudices. On the other hand, other cleavages may appear, based on cultural, systemic and institutional factors, which hinder the development of mutual trust and reinforce the asymmetrical relationship between the Schengen member Germany and the "junior partner" Poland.
After more than a decade of post-socialist transition, transition theories are increasingly criticised for their inability to grasp the new post-socialist reality. However, even in the light of political, economic, social and cultural restructuring processes taking place on a global scale, the structural legacies of socialist and pre-socialist development are not erased. On the contrary, they continue to play an important role by filtering the impact of global tendencies upon post-socialist societies. With reference to a case study from the Romanian city of Timisoara I will address in the following the ambivalencies connected to the efforts of local elites in the process of implementing global-level requirements in a post-socialist environment.
During the past decade, processes associated with what is popularly though perhaps misleadingly known as globalization have come within the purview of anthropology. Migration and mobility ‐ and the footloose or even rootless social groups that they produce ‐ as well as the worldwide diffusion of commodities, media images, political ideas and practices, technologies and scientific knowledge today are on anthropology's research agenda. As a consequence, received notions about the ways in which culture relates to territory have been abandoned. The term transnationalisation captures cultural processes that stream across the borders of nation states. Anthropologists have been forced to revise the notion that transnationalisation would inevitably bring about a culturally homogenized world. Instead, we are witnessing a surge of greatly increasing cultural diversity. New cultural forms grow out of historically situated articulations of the local and the global. Rather than left-over relics from traditional orders, these are decidedly modern, yet far from uniform. The essay engages the idea of the pluralization of modernities, explores its potential for interdisciplinary research agendas, and also inquires into problematic assumptions underlying this new theoretical concept.