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We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro economic fundamentals in an intensity based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980–2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, these variables appear to explain part of the credit cycle. As our main contribution, we test for the correct dynamic specification of these models. In all cases, the hypothesis of correct dynamic specification is strongly rejected. Moreover, accounting for dynamic mis-specification, many of the variables thought to explain the credit cycle, turn out to be insignificant. The main exceptions are GDP growth, and to some extent stock returns and stock return volatilities. Their economic significance appears low, however. This raises the puzzle of what macro-economic fundamentals explain default and rating dynamics. JEL Classification: G11, G21
We examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of data on mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. banking sector. We provide estimates for the option value that the target bank has in waiting for a higher bid instead of accepting an initial tender offer. We find empirical support for a model that estimates the value of an option to wait in accepting an initial tender offer. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to accept an offer that has a mean value of almost 12.5% for a sample of 424 mergers and acquisitions between 1997 and 2005 in the U.S. banking industry. Regression analysis reveals that the option price is related to both the price to book market and the free cash flow of target banks. We conclude that it is certainly in the shareholders best interest if subsequent offers are awaited. JEL Classification: G34, C10
Deviations from normality in financial return series have led to the development of alternative portfolio selection models. One such model is the downside risk model, whereby the investor maximizes his return given a downside risk constraint. In this paper we empirically observe the international equity allocation for the downside risk investor using 9 international markets’ returns over the last 34 years. The results are stable for various robustness checks. Investors may think globally, but instead act locally, due to greater downside risk. The results provide an alternative view of the home bias phenomenon, documented in international financial markets. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G15
The paper constructs a global monetary aggregate, namely the sum of the key monetary aggregates of the G5 economies (US, Euro area, Japan, UK, and Canada), and analyses its indicator properties for global output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach we find that after a monetary policy shock output declines temporarily, with the downward effect reaching a peak within the second year, and the global monetary aggregate drops significantly. In addition, the price level rises permanently in response to a positive shock to the global liquidity aggregate. The similarity of our results with those found in country studies might supports the use of a global monetary aggregate as a summary measure of worldwide monetary trends. JEL Classification: E52, F01
The effects of public policy programs which aim at internalizing spill-overs due to successful innovation are analyzed in a sequential double-sided moral hazard doublesided adverse selection framework. The central focus lies in analyzing their impact on contract design. We show that in our framework only ex post grants are a robust instrument for implementing the first-best situation, whereas the success of guarantee programs, ex ante grants and some types of investment grants depends strongly on the characteristics of the project: in certain cases they not only give no further incentives but even destroy contract mechanisms and so worsen the outcome. JEL Classification: D82, G24, G32, H25, H81
We propose a new decision criterion under risk in which people extract both utility from anticipatory feelings ex ante and disutility from disappointment ex post. The decision maker chooses his degree of optimism, given that more optimism raises both the utility of ex ante feelings and the risk of disappointment ex post. We characterize the optimal beliefs and the preferences under risk generated by this mental process and apply this criterion to a simple portfolio choice/insurance problem. We show that these preferences are consistent with the preference reversal in the Allais’ paradoxes and predict that the decision maker takes on less risk compared to an expected utility maximizer. This speaks to the equity premium puzzle and to the preference for low deductibles in insurance contracts. Keywords: endogenous beliefs, anticipatory feeling, disappointment, optimism, decision under risk, portfolio allocation.
Informational economies of scope between lending and underwriting are a mixed blessing for universal banks. While they can reduce the cost of raising capital for a firm, they also reduce incentives in the underwriting business. We show that tying lending and underwriting helps to overcome this dilemma. First, risky debt in tied deals works as a bond to increase underwriting incentives. Second, with limitations on contracting, tying reduces the underwriting rents as the additional incentives from debt can substitute for monetary incentives. In addition, reducing the yield on the tied debt is a means to pay for the rent in the underwriting business and to transfer informational benefits to the client. Thus, tying is a double edged sword for universal banks. It helps to compete against specialized investment banks, but it can reduce the rent to be earned in investment banking when universal banks compete against each other. We derive several empirical predictions regarding the characteristics of tied deals. JEL Classification: G21, G24, D49
Mutual insurance companies and stock insurance companies are different forms of organized risk sharing: policyholders and owners are two distinct groups in a stock insurer, while they are one and the same in a mutual. This distinction is relevant to raising capital, selling policies, and sharing risk in the presence of financial distress. Up-front capital is necessary for a stock insurer to offer insurance at a fair premium, but not for a mutual. In the presence of an ownermanager conflict, holding capital is costly. Free-rider and commitment problems limit the degree of capitalization that a stock insurer can obtain. The mutual form, by tying sales of policies to the provision of capital, can overcome these problems at the potential cost of less diversified owners. JEL Classification: G22, G32
This study analyzes the short-term dynamic spillovers between the futures returns on the DAX, the DJ Eurostoxx 50 and the FTSE 100. It also examines whether economic news is one source of international stock return co-movements. In particular, we test whether stock market interdependencies are attributable to reactions of foreign traders to public economic information. Moreover, we analyze whether cross-market linkages remain the same or whether they do increase during periods in which economic news is released in one of the countries. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) there are clear short term international dynamic interactions among the European stock futures markets; (ii) foreign economic news affects domestic returns; (iii) futures returns adjust to news immediately; (iv) announcement timing of macroeconomic news matters; (v) stock market dynamic interactions do not increase at the time of the release of economic news; (vi) foreign investors react to the content of the news itself more than to the response of the domestic market to the national news; and (vii) contemporaneous correlation between futures returns changes at the time of macroeconomic releases. JEL Classification: G14, G15
Wir untersuchen, in welchem Ausmaß die Aktien deutscher Unternehmen im Zeitverlauf an ausländischen Börsen gehandelt werden. Es zeigt sich – nach anfänglich bedeutsamer Handelsaktivität im Ausland – ein ausgeprägter Rückfluss-Effekt nach Deutschland. Zweitnotierungen an ausländischen Börsen dienen der Verbreiterung der Aktionärsbasis und somit der Senkung der Kapitalkosten und letztendlich der Steigerung des Unternehmenswertes. Dazu ist ein ausreichendes Handelsvolumen an der ausländischen Börse unabdinglich. Daran gemessen sind die Auslandsnotierungen deutscher Unternehmen nicht erfolgreich. Dies ist jedoch nicht im gleichen Ausmaß für alle Unternehmen der Fall. Kleinere, wachsende Unternehmen und Unternehmen mit höherem Anteil des Auslandsumsatzes am Gesamtumsatz werden relativ stärker im Ausland gehandelt.
This paper provides new insights into the nature of loan securitization. We analyze the use of collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions by European banks from 1997 to 2004 andtry to identify the influence that various firm-specific and macroeconomic factors may have on an institution's securitization decision. We find that not only regulatory capital arbitrage under Basel I has been driving the market. Rather, our results suggest that loan securitization is an appropriate funding tool for banks with high risk and low liquidity. It may also have been used by commercial banks to indirectly access investment-bank activities and the associated gains.
Mein heutiger Vortrag kann nicht mehr als eine Momentaufnahme der Entwicklungen im europäischen Gesellschaftsrecht bieten. Ich beschränke mich dabei auf die rechtsetzende Tätigkeit der Organe der EU und hier insbesondere auf die Aktivitäten und Pläne der Kommission, blende also die Rechtsprechung des EuGH und die wissenschaftliche Debatte völlig aus.
Grenzüberschreitende Umstrukturierungen wurden bislang unter Nutzung traditioneller Strukturmodelle als Übernahmen oder Zusammenschluss zwischen Gleichen mit öffentlichen Erwerbsangeboten gegen bar oder Aktien vollzogen. Eine grenzüberschreitende Verschmelzung im rechtstechnischen Sinne war bislang in Deutschland nicht möglich. Die SEVIC-Entscheidung des EuGH, die Einführung der SE und demnächst die gesetzliche Regelung einer EU-weiten Verschmelzung ermöglichen auch grenzüberschreitende Verschmelzungen im rechtstechnischen Sinne. Der Verfasser stellt die traditionellen Strukturen eines grenzüberschreitenden Unternehmenszusammenschlusses dar und untersucht, welche praktische Bedeutung diese traditionellen Strukturen in Zukunft haben werden. Darüber hinaus wird untersucht, ob eine grenzüberschreitende Unternehmenszusammenführung nach den Grundsätzen des SEVIC-Entscheidung für die Praxis eine Alternative darstellt.
Zusammenfassung in Thesen 1. Der Wegzug von deutschen Gesellschaften in das EU-Ausland in Gestalt der Verlegung des Verwaltungssitzes führt nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht zur Auflösung der Gesellschaft, wenn die Sitzverlegung mit einem Statutenwechsel einhergeht. In der Mehrzahl der Fälle bleibt indessen deutsches Gesellschaftsrecht anwendbar. Die Auflösung der Gesellschaft ist hier allerdings gerichtlich zu erzwingen, sollte der inländische Satzungssitz nicht mehr durch §§ 5 Abs. 2 AktG, 4 a Abs. 2 GmbHG gerechtfertigt sein. Die Abkehr des geplanten „MoMiG“ von diesem Standpunkt ist rechtspolitisch zu begrüßen, aber nur im Verein mit einem generellen Übergang auch zur Gründungsanknüpfung im deutschen Kollisionsrecht sinnvoll, so wie dies der Deutsche Rat für Internationales Privatrecht vorschlägt. 2. Der Wegzug in Gestalt einer schlichten Verlagerung des Satzungssitzes einer nach deutschem Recht gegründeten Gesellschaft in das EU-Ausland ist nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht unzulässig. Rechtspolitisch ist die Einführung eines geregelten Verfahrens einer grenzüberschreitenden Satzungssitzverlegung zu befürworten, so wie dies der Deutsche Rat für Internationales Privatrecht vorschlägt. 3. Die „wilde“ Herausverschmelzung einer nach deutschem Recht gegründeten Gesellschaft – d.h. spiegelbildlich zur „SEVIC“ und außerhalb der geplanten §§ 122 a ff. UmwG – auf eine EU-ausländische Gesellschaft ist nach deutschem Gesellschaftsrecht unzulässig.
Bis zur Umsetzung der so genannten Verschmelzungsrichtlinie in nationales Recht stellt der Einsatz einer SE das einzige rechtssichere Instrumentarium zur Bewältigung von grenzüberschreitenden Unternehmenszusammenführungen in Form von Verschmelzungen in Europa dar. Derzeit gibt auch nur die SE ein rechtssicheres Verfahren zur Bewältigung von identitätswahrenden Sitzverlegungen innerhalb Europas an die Hand. Die Rechtsform der SE und ihre europäische Identität bieten daneben Vorteile, die ihre Beachtung nicht nur bei Fragen der grenzüberschreitenden Umstrukturierung, sondern auch allgemein bei Fragen der Rechtsformwahl gebieten.
Das 2. UmwG-ÄndG bringt hinsichtlich der grenzüberschreitenden Verschmelzung einen erheblichen Gewinn an Rechtssicherheit. Weil die §§ 122a ff. UmwG-E weitgehend eine getreue Umsetzung der IntVRiL darstellen, werden künftige transnationale Verschmelzungen erleichtert; dies jedenfalls dann, wenn auch die anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten die Richtlinie alsbald umsetzen. Anders als bei innerstaatlichen Verschmelzungen sind die für die Arbeitnehmer wesentlichen Informationen nicht im Verschmelzungsvertrag bzw. -plan, sondern im Verschmelzungsbericht enthalten. Dementsprechend ist dieser nicht verzichtbar. Sofern ein Verhandlungsverfahren über die künftige Mitbestimmung nach MgVG stattfindet, können sich die Anteilseigner die Bestätigung der dort erzielten Ergebnisse vorbehalten (§ 122g Abs. 1 UmwG-E), wenn die Verhandlungen im Zeitpunkt der Zustimmung zur Verschmelzung noch nicht beendet sind. Für die Bestätigung können andere Beschlussmodalitäten vorgesehen werden als für den Verschmelzungsbeschluss selbst. § 122c Abs. 2 Nr. 11, 12 UmwG-E ist dahingehend teleologisch zu reduzieren, dass die dort geforderten Angaben entfallen können, wenn sie für die Umsetzung und bilanzielle Abbildung der Verschmelzung nach den beteiligten Rechtsordnungen nicht erforderlich sind. Eine Zustimmung der Anteilseigner ausländischer Rechtsträger zur Durchführung eines Spruchverfahrens wird regelmäßig nicht zu erlangen sein. In diesem Fall sind die Gesellschafter des deutschen übertragenden Rechtsträgers – abweichend von § 14 Abs. 2 UmwG – auf die Anfechtungsklage verwiesen. Findet demgegenüber ein Spruchverfahren statt, insbesondere weil alle beteiligten Rechtsordnungen ein solches vorsehen, wird die vom Gesetzgeber gewünschte Zuständigkeitskonzentration kaum je zu erreichen sein. Regelmäßig werden nämlich die Gerichte in den Sitzstaaten sowohl des übertragenden als auch des übernehmenden Rechtsträgers international zuständig sein. Die Vorschrift des § 6c SpruchG-E ist dahingehend teleologisch zu reduzieren, dass ein gemeinsamer Vertreter nur für solche Anteilseigner zu bestellen ist, deren Zustimmung nach § 122h Abs. 1 UmwG-E zur Durchführung des Spruchverfahrens erforderlich ist. Auch in den vom 2. UmwG-ÄndG nicht geregelten Fälle internationaler Umwandlungen (insbesondere Verschmelzung unter Beteiligung von Personengesellschaften und Spaltung) kann weitgehend auf die in §§ 122a ff. UmwG-E enthaltenen Rechtsgedanken zurückgegriffen werden.
Mit Blick auf die liberale Theorie der Internationalen Beziehungen wird die Bedeutung von Medieninformation für außenpolitische Präferenzbildungsprozesse beleuchtet. Am Beispiel der Golfkrise 1990 und des Golfkrieges 1991 zeigt sich, dass von einer "frei deliberierenden" demokratischen Öffentlichkeit in den USA nicht unbedingt die Rede sein kann. Vielmehr bediente sich die Exekutive einer ausgefeilten "Medien(kriegs)politik", um den medialen Diskurs zu dominieren und die Meinungsbildung zu steuern. Dieser Befund stellt eine Herausforderung für die liberale Theorie dar: Wenn eine demokratische Öffentlichkeit nicht über ausgewogene Informationen verfügt, kann mit Blick auf militärische Gewalteinsätze nur eingeschränkt von demokratischer Kontrolle gesprochen werden. Ein amerikanischer Präsident, der mit seiner Medienpolitik den öffentlichen Diskurs über den Einsatz militärischer Gewalt dominieren kann, verfügt offensichtlich über größere Handlungsspielräume nach innen und außen, als die liberale Theorie bisher angenommen hat.
The sovereignty of the European nation states in the realm of security politics is gradually eroding. At the same time the European integration to a large degree influences the level of direct bilateral police cooperation, since cross-border crime has come to be perceived not as only a national, but as a common problem for the European nation states. At the German-Polish border, "Europe's Rio Grande", these high expectations concerning security policy are put into practice. With Poland's EU accession, Polish and German border guards are no longer spatially separated, but jointly control travellers. Joint patrols and contact points have already existed since 1998. On the one hand, the enforced meeting of German and Polish border policemen may help dismantle mutual prejudices. On the other hand, other cleavages may appear, based on cultural, systemic and institutional factors, which hinder the development of mutual trust and reinforce the asymmetrical relationship between the Schengen member Germany and the "junior partner" Poland.
After more than a decade of post-socialist transition, transition theories are increasingly criticised for their inability to grasp the new post-socialist reality. However, even in the light of political, economic, social and cultural restructuring processes taking place on a global scale, the structural legacies of socialist and pre-socialist development are not erased. On the contrary, they continue to play an important role by filtering the impact of global tendencies upon post-socialist societies. With reference to a case study from the Romanian city of Timisoara I will address in the following the ambivalencies connected to the efforts of local elites in the process of implementing global-level requirements in a post-socialist environment.
During the past decade, processes associated with what is popularly though perhaps misleadingly known as globalization have come within the purview of anthropology. Migration and mobility ‐ and the footloose or even rootless social groups that they produce ‐ as well as the worldwide diffusion of commodities, media images, political ideas and practices, technologies and scientific knowledge today are on anthropology's research agenda. As a consequence, received notions about the ways in which culture relates to territory have been abandoned. The term transnationalisation captures cultural processes that stream across the borders of nation states. Anthropologists have been forced to revise the notion that transnationalisation would inevitably bring about a culturally homogenized world. Instead, we are witnessing a surge of greatly increasing cultural diversity. New cultural forms grow out of historically situated articulations of the local and the global. Rather than left-over relics from traditional orders, these are decidedly modern, yet far from uniform. The essay engages the idea of the pluralization of modernities, explores its potential for interdisciplinary research agendas, and also inquires into problematic assumptions underlying this new theoretical concept.
We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages in line with an optimizing rationale in a New Keynesian closed economy DSGE model. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques for German data from the late 1970s to present. Given the pre-euro heterogeneity in wage bargaining we take this as the first-best approximation at hand for modelling monetary policy in the presence of labor market frictions in the current European regime. In our framework, we find that labor market structure is of prime importance for the evolution of the business cycle, and for monetary policy in particular. Yet shocks originating in the labor market itself may contain only limited information for the conduct of stabilization policy. JEL - Klassifikation: J64 , E32 , C11 , E52
As of today, estimating interest rate reaction functions for the Euro Area is hampered by the short time span since the conduct of a single monetary policy. In this paper we circumvent the common use of aggregated data before 1999 by estimating interest rate reaction functions based on a panel including actual EMU Member States. We find that exploiting the cross-section dimen- sion of a multi-country panel and accounting for cross-country heterogeneity in advance of the single monetary policy pays off with regard to the estimated reaction functions' ability to describe actual interest rate dynamics. We retrieve a panel reaction function which is demonstrated to be a valuable tool for evaluating episodes of monetary policy since 1999. JEL - Klassifikation: E43 , E58 , C33
This paper investigates various theories explaining banks´ overbidding in the fixed rate tenders of the European Central Bank (ECB). Using auction data from both the Bundesbank and the ECB, we show that none of the theories can on its own explain the observed overbidding. This implies that the proposed new rules by the ECB, aimed at neutralizing interest rate expectations, would not eliminate overbidding if the rationing rule in the fixed rate tenders remains unchanged. JEL - Klassifikation: D44 , E32
Although stable money demand functions are crucial for the monetary model of the exchange rate, empirical research on exchange rates and money demand is more or less disconnected. This paper tries to fill the gap for the Euro/Dollar exchange rate. We investigate whether monetary disequilibria provided by the empirical literature on U.S. and European money demand functions contain useful information about exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model improves when insights from the money demand literature are explicitly taken into account. JEL - Klassifikation: F31 , E41
The dynamic relationship between the Euro overnight rate, the ECB´s policy rate and the term spread
(2006)
This paper investigates how the dynamic adjustment of the European overnight rate Eonia to the term spread and the ECB’s policy rate has been affected by rate expectations and the operational framework of the ECB. In line with recent evidence found for the US and Japan, the reaction of the Eonia to the term spread is non-symmetric. Moreover, the response of the Eonia to the policy rate depends on both, the repo auction format and the position of the Eonia in the ECB’s interest rate corridor. JEL - Klassifikation: E43 , E52
Inflation and relative price variability in the Euro area : evidence from a panel threshold model
(2006)
In recent macroeconomic theory, relative price variability (RPV) generates the central distortions of inflation. This paper provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and RPV in the euro area focusing on threshold effects of inflation. We ¯nd that expected inflation significantly increases RPV if inflation is either very low (below -1.38% p.a.) or very high (above 5.94% p.a.). In the intermediate regime, however, expected in°ation has no distorting effects which supports price stability as an outcome of optimal monetary policy. JEL classification: E31, C23
This paper employs individual bidding data to analyze the empirical performance of the longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) of the European Central Bank (ECB). We investigate how banks’ bidding behavior is related to a series of exogenous variables such as collateral costs, interest rate expectations, market volatility and to individual bank characteristics like country of origin, size, and experience. Panel regressions reveal that a bank’s bidding depends on bank characteristics. Yet, different bidding behavior generally does not translate into differences concerning bidder success. In contrast to the ECB’s main refinancing operations, we find evidence for the winner’s curse effect in LTROs. Our results indicate that LTROs do neither lead to market distortions nor to unfair auction outcomes. JEL classification: E52, D44
A distinguishing feature of the ECB’s monetary policy setup is the preannouncement of a minimum bid rate in its weekly repo auctions. However, whenever interest rates are expected to decline, the minimum bid rate is viewed as too high and banks refrain from bidding, severely impeding the ECB’s money market management. To shed more light on banks’ underbidding, we perform a panel analysis of the bidder behavior in the repo auctions of the Bundesbank where no minimum bid rate was set. Our results indicate that neither bank’s participation nor the submitted bid amount is significantly affected by an expected rate cut. This suggests that abandoning the minimum bid rate might increase the efficiency of the ECB’s money market management.
Even though tourism has been recognised as an important field for transnational research today, there are few attempts to place tourism in the context of transnational theories or to think about transnationalism from the perspective of tourists. I argue that in researching tourist practices one can add important aspects to transnational approaches. The prerequisites of mobility and interaction for example are the features chosen by backpackers to describe what their Round-The-World-Trip is about. A form of tourism is adopted, or created, that itself confronts many aspects of globalisation: First of all there is the immense dynamic that is involved. Backpackers try to cover as many places and experiences as possible, travelling at high speed. They adopt all kinds of touristic experiences ranging from beach to adventure to culture tourism. They don't focus on a specific area or country but travel the world. They cross national borders perpetually. Additionally they form a transnational network in which they interact with strangers of similar backgrounds (other backpackers, tourist professionals). This network helps them interacting with people from different backgrounds (the socalled hosts or locals). Considering my research Backpackers forge a certain identity from these transnational practices which I want to name globedentity. Globedentity expresses a type of identity construction that not only refers to the individual (I) but reflects the world (globe) in this identity. This globedentity is not fixed but is perpetually re-created and re-defined. It also embraces the increasing popular awareness of globalisation which backpackers, coming from highly educated middle class backgrounds, in particular have identified with. Due to the constant awareness of the latest global social, cultural and economic developments in these educated milieus they know exactly which tools to use to become successful parts of their societies.
Spacially dispersed transnational professional communities can be perceived of as cultural formations living in a global frame of reference, transgressing existing political and cultural boundaries. In their capacity as members of local technical and knowledgebased elites, they take part in circulating and connecting cultural meanings that are both locally produced, and continuously re-working non- local flows. I argue that those elites can be described as actors at cultural interfaces, taking part in shaping and mediating social change. The aim is twofold: one, to point to mutually opposed tendencies, and ambivalences in the framework of a „culture of change“, and two, to look into the question how such situations and groups can be methodologically approached.
The imagination has become a major site for studying transnational cultural flows. Yet it is mainly the mass media that are explored as channels directing the imagination from "the West" towards "the rest". And there is still little empirical "testing" of this field. How do such ‐ and other ‐ imaginary sources work into social practice? And what does such "practised imagination" imply for the practice of transnational anthropology? This article attempts to address these questions from the perspective of fieldwork in progress. In and between Crete and Germany I traced transnational networks based on the reciprocal mobilities of migration, remigration, and tourism. Here, multiple domains of imagination are drawn upon by various audiences, thus effectively contributing to the creation of these relations and the places in which they localise. Anthropological research on tourism and migration has tended to separate the imagination ‐ as being an external impact ‐ from local practice. Yet, transnational ethnography needs to challenge this opposition and is in itself a strategy to do so, in that it perceives the imagination as a practice of transcending physical and cultural distance.
The present article explores perceptions and cultural constructions of the terms capitalism or capitalistic West among ex-Soviet, highly qualified Jewish migrants from Russia and Ukraine after their emigration to Germany between 1990 and 1996. It seems that migration offers a unique opportunity to migrants to realise knowledge that is normally taken for granted, behaviour schemes and values, and to reflect on them. How do they acquire such presumed capitalist knowledge of the new society and new social world, how do they create it, and with what concrete contents do they connect the illusion about monolithic cultural, economic and political capital, the illusion which contributes to group formation and which serves as action orientation? As my research shows, immigrants try to disparage much of what appeared to them in the Soviet Union as normative, right and appropriate; now they often act by way of categories, which were defined in the previous context as "capitalist" and were interpreted as immoral. Without exact ideas or knowledge about behaviour codes, unspoken norms and silent values from the new society, many immigrants orient themselves towards the opposite of what was counted as morally proper in the origin society. Simultaneously they revive old system through the establishing and development of a Russian language enclave. Nevertheless this enclave is not located in a vacuum of "dusty" memories from the past, but build transnational cross-border space connected and corresponding to the processes of to-day's CIS and with the life of those relatives and friends who still live there, und with whom the emigrants share intensive social networks.
This paper focuses on Eastern European migrants who, since the beginning of the 1990s, are entering the Republic Cyprus as “artistes”. This is a visa permit status as well as an euphemism for short-term work permits in the local sex industry. In addition to exploring the migrational experiences of these women and their living and working conditions in the Republic of Cyprus, the paper reconstructs, empirically and analyt ically, the connection between immigration and the local sex industry. Here, several categories of social actors and institutions in Cyprus are actively involved. The rhetoric of government representatives, entrepreneurs and clients in the sex business on the one hand is contrasted with the discourse of local NGO representatives concerned with immigrants’ rights on the other hand. The paper comes to the conclusion that all of these discursive positions ultimately do not do justice to the complex process of decisionmaking that women undergo who migrate into the sex industry. Either, freedom of choice is emphasized – such as by entrepreneurs and the government – or the domination of women – as in the public statements of the NGO. In order to analyze the ambivalent tension between freedom of choice and submission to force by which the women’s decision is characterized, the author employs Michel Foucault’s concept of governmentality, which describes forms of political regulation that use the individual’s freedom of action as an instrument to exercise power.
Challenging and confirming touristic representations of the Mediterranean : migrant workers in Crete
(2006)
From the perspective of Western Europe the Mediterranean is shaped by the imagery of tourism and migration. During the time of the “guest worker”-migration in the 1960s and 70s the notion of the hopelessly underdeveloped South of Europe which pushes “guest workers” towards the rich North became prevalent here. It offered a contrast which let the beginning prosperity in the North appear even clearer. (see von Osten 2006) Besides the attractions “sea, sun and sand” it was exactly this conception of backwardness which – reinterpreted in authentic and traditional Mediterranean lifestyle – made the area attractive for tourist consumption. Today it is again pictures of the Mediterranean, which represent migration dynamics in Europe. In the meantime, however, the countries of origin of the “guest workers” have become countries of immigration and European Union member states or candidates for accession. The representation of the Mediterranean as an area of migration is dominated now by pictures of desperate refugees and illegal immigrants, who risk their life by crossing the sea, in order to enter the “fortress Europe”. In these current representations the “colonial narrative of migrants as members of a territory of underdeveloped” is continued (ibid.). A translation of the migrant area into the tourist area seems, however, more difficult than at the times of the “guest worker”-migration. What constitutes the Mediterranean as a tourist destination seems to have no longer anything in common with the Mediterranean as an area of migration.....
Der nachstehende Aufsatz ist Teil einer breiter angelegten Studie, an der ich derzeit im Rahmen eines Dissertationsvorhabens mit dem Titel: Ideologische Gruppierungen im arnerikanischen Kongress - Zur Rolle innerpateilicher Flügelorganisationen im U.S. Repräsentantenhaus, 1960-1990, arbeite. Die Diskussion der Veränderungen des Stils der Mandatsführung der amerikanischen Abgeordneten seit den 1960er Jahren ist in diesem Zusammenhang als eine wichtige Komponente des Versuchs zu verstehen, einen Erklärungsansatz für die Entstehung und Arbeitsweise der in dem Dissertationsprojekt untersuchten »ideological caucuses« zu formulieren.
Im Zusammenhang mit dem Präventivkrieg der Vereinigten Staaten gegen den Irak ist von einem Versagen der parlamentarischen Kontrolle die Rede. Analog zur Tonkin-Gulf-Resolution von 1964, mit der das amerikanische Parlament Präsident Lyndon B. Johnson praktisch eine Blankovollmacht für den Vietnamkrieg erteilt hatte, sei der USKongress im Oktober 2002 davor zurückgeschreckt, seiner verfassungsrechtlichen Verantwortung, welche ihm vor allem aus dem alleinigen Rechtzur Kriegserklärung erwächst, auch nur in Ansätzen nachzukommen. Häufig wird dieses Verhalten auf die Bedrohungslage und das politische Klima nach dem 11. September zurückgeführt. Wie eine kursorische Durchsicht der einschlägigen Literatur zeigt, handelt es sich bei der mangelnden institutionellen Selbstbehauptung des Kongresses im Zusammenhang mit Militäreinsätzen jedoch um kein neues Phänomen: Die Interventionspolitik galt auch schon vor den Terroranschlägen von New York und Washington als ein Politikfeld, in dem es der Legislative allenfalls partiell gelungen ist, die Exekutive nach den Auswüchsen der so genannten imperialen Präsidentschaft wieder stärker zu kontrollieren. Eine Deutung, die in den vergangenen Jahren verstärkt Zulauf erfahren hat, versucht den Ausnahmecharakter der Interventionspolitik mit dem sozialkonstruktivistisch grundierten Konzept einer Kultur der Unterordnung zu erklären. Es existiert aber auch eine rationalistisch argumentierende These, wonach politische Kalküle und Zwänge, die aus einem medial erzeugten Wählerdruck resultieren, das Parlament veranlassen, sich dem Präsidenten in der militärischen Interventionspolitik unterzuordnen. Die Studie will anhand von zwei Fallbeispielen aus den 1990er Jahren,dem zweiten Golfkrieg und dem Kosovokrieg, klären, welcher Stellenwert diesen beiden Faktoren für die mangelnde institutionelle Selbstbehauptung des Kongresses in der militärischen Interventionspolitik zukommt. Unser Befund deutet darauf hin, dass eine separate, besonders stark ausgeprägte Teilkultur der Unterordnung auf Seiten der Republikaner existiert, die ceteris paribus dazu führt, dass sich eine von der Grand Old Party kontrollierte Legislative in Fragen, die Krieg und Frieden betreffen, institutionell grundsätzlich weniger stark behaupten kann als ein demokratisch dominierter Kongress.
Auf dem Hintergrund der Analyse der kanadischen Entwicklung und der sie begleitenden Diskussion um die Integration in den nordamerikanischen Wirtschaftsraum und die Problematik des Quebecer Minderheitennationalismus lassen sich folgende Schlussfolgerungen ziehen: Zum ersten kann im Falle Kanadas tatsächlich nur von einer internationalen Wirtschaftsintegration im Sinne einer regionalen Integration gesprochen werden und nicht von einer Globalisierung der ökonomischen Beziehungen. Die Ergebnisse und Daten haben gezeigt, dass sich der Handel zunehmend auf den nordamerikanischen Kontinent konzentriert. Diese Ergebnisse lassen sich auch durch andere Untersuchungen zum europäischen Binnenmarkt und auch zum asiatischen Markt bestätigen. Die regionale Integration innerhalb der drei Wirtschaftsblöcke kann eher definiert werden als eine Gegenreaktion gegen eine globale ökonomische Liberalisierung denn als ein erster Schritt in Richtung eines globalen Marktes. Ähnlich vorsichtig und differenziert argumentieren auch Hirst und Thompson, wenn sie in den Nationalstaaten weiterhin die grundlegenden Einheiten der internationalen Wirtschaft sehen. Eine relative Trennung von nationalen und internationalen Bezugssystemen werde nach Hirst und Thompson nicht aufgehoben, der Einfluß von internationalen Ereignissen auf die Binnenökonomie werde noch immer gefiltert von nationalen Maßnahmen und Prozessen. Diese Schlussfolgerungen konnten auch durch die Analyse der Verhandlungen zur Implementierung des Free trade agreements mit den USA und den sich anschließenden Verhandlungen zur NAFTA bestätigt werden. Es sind staatliche Akteure und Institutionen, die die Regeln der Integration festschreiben und auch noch weite rhin Einflussmöglichkeiten im Rahmen dieser Kooperationsgebilde besitzen. Natürlich ergeben sich hieraus andere Akteurskonstellationen und Handlungsspielräume für die staatlichen Akteure, aber von einem generellen Bedeutungsverlust kann keinesfalls gesprochen werden. Genau hier fehlt es in der Globalisierungsdi skussion noch an empirischen Untersuchungen, die den veränderten Charakter, die unterschiedlichenHandlungsebenen und die veränderte Funktion nationaler Wirtschaftspolitik genauer beleuchtet. Dem Staat kommen nach Hirst und Thompson auch weiterhin zentrale Aufgaben im Wirtschaftsbereich zu. Dazu gehören die Herstellung eines V erteilungskompromisses zur Beeinflussung der Wirtschaft, die Herbeiführung eines sozialen Konsenses und eine adäquate Aufteilung der Steuereinnahmen und -ko mpetenzen auf den verschiedenen Regierungsebenen. Es kann also keinesfalls von einem völligen Verlust der nationalen Souveränität durch die Globalisierung gesprochen werden, wobei hier gefragt werden muss, inwieweit das Konzept staatlicher Souveränität in seiner juristischen und rechtswissenschaftlichen Zuspitz ung je zutraf. Die Forschung müsste sich stärker konzentrieren auf das neue Konkurrenzverhältnisvon internationalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen und Handelsströmen einerseits und den Machtbefugnissen des Staates anderer seits. Verschiedene Akteure treten neb en dem Nationalstaat auf verschiedenenEbenen mit unterschiedlichen Interessen auf. Diese neuen Interaktionsformen und die Handlungsspielräume, in denen sie stattfinden, bedürfen noch einer genauen empirischen Analyse, um Prognosen über die Zukunft des Nationalstaates zu machen. Der Nationalstaat wird aber weiterhin eine bedeutende Rolle in der Vermittlung zwischen den sozialen, politischen und ökonomischen Dimensionen der Realität spielen.
Although many observers consider the Bush administration’s “faith-based initiative” a unique breach in the wall of separation between church and state, close ties between the federal government and religious agencies are no novelty in the history of American public policy. Since the end of the Second World War, billions of dollars of public funds have been made available to religiously-affiliated hospitals, nursing homes, educational institutions, and social services - institutions which were regarded as vital to Cold War preparedness. By the same token, government use of religious foreign aid agencies, the donation of surplus land and military facilities to religious charities, and the funding of the chaplaincy in the armed forces have undergirded Cold War foreign policy goals. Based on the principle of subsidiarity, post-war public policy thus integrated religious groups into the framework of the welfare and national security state in ways which underwrote both the expansion of the federal government and the growth of religious agencies. Crucially, public funding relations involved not only mainline Protestant, Jewish and Catholic organizations, but also white evangelicals, who had traditionally been the most outspoken opponents of closer ties between church and state. Cold War Anti-Communism, the fear of Catholic or secularist control of public funds, and pragmatic considerations, however, ushered in the gradual revision of their separatist views. Ironically, the programs of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, so vilified by the Christian Right, pioneered many of the funding streams most beneficial to evangelical providers. Considering that since 1945 the sprawling and loosely organized evangelical movement has become the largest single religious faction in the US, and that conservative Protestants now form the most strongly Republican group in the religious spectrum, these findings are of particular importance. They suggest that Cold War state-building and the resurgence of Evangelicalism mutually reinforced each other in ways which have been largely ignored by scholarship on conservatism and its focus on the “backlash” against the political and cultural upheaval of the 1960s. Based on newly accessible archival materials and a comprehensive review of secondary literature, this paper suggests that the institutional and ideological ties between evangelicals and the state, which developed in the aftermath of the Second World War, are as important in understanding the political mobilization of conservative Protestants as the more recent “culture war” sentiments.
Taxation and tax policy reform appears on the political agenda in most advanced welfare states in Europe and North America. Of course studies of taxation and tax policy are nothing new and have existed ever since people have paid taxes. The current work is situated in the context of the future of the welfare state and the reinforced international economic and political integration referred to as "globalization." The purpose of this paper is to analyze how globalization is affecting tax policy in advanced welfare states. In comparing the evolution of tax policy in Canada with those in the United States, Germany and Sweden from 1960 to 1995, I will try to review the conventional antiglobalization thesis, i.e., that globalization leads to a "race to the bottom" in revenue and expenditures policies, or as others have called it, a "beggar the neighbour policy" (Tanzi and Bovenberg 1990, 187). ... Conclusion: The empirical data and theoretical models clearly show that globalization is one relatively minor factor among many that explain tax policy reforms. And even that limited influence is mediated by domestic political systems, institutions and constellations of actors. As the data has shown, the conventional globalization thesis of a race to the bottom is not borne out. Tax rates and tax revenues are still increasing, despite the ongoing trend toward international trade integration. Countervailing pressures like the high cost of welfare programs, different parties in government, strong labour unions, and institutional veto players counteract the pressure of globalization on tax policy. As for the future of taxation in Canada, it is more likely to be one of gradual evolution than radical change. Although the data don’t show any downward pressure on tax rates and tax revenues comparatively speaking, there are at least four key factors in Canada that are likely to put pressure on future tax rates, although regional political dynamics and the workings of fiscal federalism suggest that tax reductions will be a higher priority in some provinces than others (Hale 2002). First, neoliberalism will continue to shape fiscal and tax policy, including the role of the tax system in delivering social policies and programs in most parts of Canada. Second, governments that seek to define their own economic and social priorities rather than simply react to events beyond their borders will have to exercise centralized control over budgetary policies and spending levels if they hope to foster the economic growth needed to finance social services in the context of Canada’s changing demographics. Third, the ability of governments to combine the promotion of economic growth and higher living standards will be closely linked to their ability to develop a workable division of responsibilities among federal and provincial governments and with other national governments. Finally, the diffusion of new technologies will continue to transform national and regional economies while giving individuals greater opportunity to avoid government and tax regulations that run contrary to their perceived interests and values. This discussion of determinants that shape tax policy reform has shown that successful management of fiscal and tax policy requires a capacity to set priorities; adapt to changing circumstances; and build a consensus that enables competing economic, social, regional and ideological interests to identify their own well-being in the broader political and economic environment. Tax policy is shaped by many political, economic and social determinants. As Geoffrey Hale correctly concludes, "it should not be surprising if the tax system stubbornly refuses to confirm either economic theories or political ideologies, but reflects past decisions and the policy tradeoffs of the political process" (2002, 71). The notion of tax policy being driven by globalization and forces associated with globalization (both positive and negative) is simply not borne by the facts.
In der vorliegenden Studie werden die sozialpolitischen Reformen in den USA und Kanada während der 1990er Jahren in einer vergleichenden Perspektive analysiert. Dabei wird insbesondere die Rolle steuerpolitischer Instrumentarien in den Reformen thematisiert und der Frage nachgegangen, ob sich hier ein neuer Typ von Wohlfahrtsstaat herausbildet. Im ersten Teil des Papiers wird das in der vergleichenden Wohlfahrtsstaatsforschung etablierte Modell des liberalen Wohlfahrtsstaats skizziert, um vor diesem Hintergrund die Reformen in den USA und Kanada zu untersuchen und zu vergleichen. Anschließend wird in einer breiteren vergleichenden Perspektive die out-put-Leistung der beiden Wohlfahrtsstaaten analysiert. Al normative Kriterien hierbei gilt in erster Linie die Umverteilungsfunktion sozialpolitischer Instrumentarien, hier in erster Linie verstanden als Einkommensumverteilung.
Am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts wird der Zustand der US-Demokratie kontrovers diskutiert. Während manche Beobachter eine zu hohe Responsivität des politischen Systems gegenüber den Ansprüchen seiner Bürger entdeckt haben wollen und deshalb von demosclerosis und einer Hyperdemokratie sprechen, in welcher der Volkswille in einen unantastbaren, göttlichen Rang erhoben worden sei, kommen andere zu dem Schluss, dass die Gründerväter im Hinblick auf ihre handlungsanleitende Furcht vor einer »Tyrannei der Mehrheit« ganze Arbeit geleistet und ein nahezu unüberwindbares System von Vetopositionen geschaffen hätten, das Partikularinteressen strukturell bevorzuge und deshalb nur in Ausnahmesituationen die Mehrheitspräferenzen der Bürger in Politik umsetze. Kurzum: Die Furcht der Federalists vor einer »Mehrheitstyrannei« habe einer »Minderheitstyrannei« Tür und Tor geöffnet. Der Artikel versucht die Vereinigten Staaten in diesem Spannungsbogen zu verorten. Ziel ist es, die Qualität der amerikanischen Demokratie am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts zu problematisieren. Dabei werden auch die Entwicklungen nach dem 11. September berücksichtigt.
A resampling method based on the bootstrap and a bias-correction step is developed for improving the Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting ability of the normal-GARCH model. Compared to the use of more sophisticated GARCH models, the new method is fast, easy to implement, numerically reliable, and, except for having to choose a window length L for the bias-correction step, fully data driven. The results for several different financial asset returns over a long out-of-sample forecasting period, as well as use of simulated data, strongly support use of the new method, and the performance is not sensitive to the choice of L. Klassifizierung: C22, C53, C63, G12