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Demographic change in industrialized nations has been a matter of common interest for some time. The financial implications of an ageing society are also increasingly discussed, particularly with regard to pension systems. The impact of this development on public finances is, however, only gradually being realized and the constitutional framework of public finances in Germany and the European Union just falls short of ignoring it entirely. This paper is a preliminary assessment of the burden of an ageing society under the fiscal law, specifically in respect of prospective entitlements to the public pension system. The first part analyses the provisions of the German constitution on finances (Finanzverfassungsrecht) to identify what rules, if any, exist addressing such (potential) expenditures, which lie in the immediate or very distant future. The second part of the paper analyses the fiscal requirements under European Union law. In the third and final part a few comments on the proposed national pact on stability and the recent moves to amend the German Federal Constitution are presented.
This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. Klassifizierung: E17, E25, D33, C68
Die Grundfrage, die sich angesichts der derzeitigen und künftigen Entwicklung stellt, ist die nach den Perspektiven der Auslandsgermanistik in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Sieht man ab von den bereits an anderer Stelle angeregten strukturellen Änderungen, die die Effizienz, Relevanz und Qualität der Germanistik merklich steigern könnten, (vgl. Schuppener 2009: 29f.) kann man darüber nachdenken, welche Reaktionsmöglichkeiten die Auslandsgermanistik besitzt, um auf den einsetzenden Wandel zu reagieren und damit neue Potenziale und Aufgabenfelder zu eröffnen.
Von entscheidender Bedeutung ist zunächst die Frage, an welche Zielgruppen sich die Studienangebote der Auslandsgermanistik bislang richten. Auf dieser Grundlage lässt sich dann erörtern, ob und ggf. wie eine Veränderung bzw. Verbreiterung dieser Zielgruppen erfolgen kann.