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We compare the cost effectiveness of two pronatalist policies:
(a) child allowances; and
(b) daycare subsidies.
We pay special attention to estimating how intended fertility (fertility before children are born) responds to these policies. We use two evaluation tools:
(i) a dynamic model on fertility, labor supply, outsourced childcare time, parental time, asset accumulation and consumption; and
(ii) randomized vignette-survey policy experiments.
We implement both tools in the United States and Germany, finding consistent evidence that daycare subsidies are more cost effective. Nevertheless, the required public expenditure to increase fertility to the replacement level might be viewed as prohibitively high.
We extend the classical ”martingale-plus-noise” model for high-frequency prices by an error correction mechanism originating from prevailing mispricing. The speed of price reversal is a natural measure for informational efficiency. The strength of the price reversal relative to the signal-to-noise ratio determines the signs of the return serial correlation and the bias in standard realized variance estimates. We derive the model’s properties and locally estimate it based on mid-quote returns of the NASDAQ 100 constituents. There is evidence of mildly persistent local regimes of positive and negative serial correlation, arising from lagged feedback effects and sluggish price adjustments. The model performance is decidedly superior to existing stylized microstructure models. Finally, we document intraday periodicities in the speed of price reversion and noise-to-signal ratios.
Fit to play : posture and seating position analysis with professional musicians - a study protocol
(2017)
Background: Musical performance-associated musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are a common health problem among professional musicians. Considering the manifold consequences arising for the musicians, they can be seen as a threat for their professional activity. String players are the most affected group of musicians in this matter. Faults in upper body posture while playing the instrument, causing un-ergonomic static strain on the back and unergonomic limp-movements, are a main reason for musculoskeletal disorders and pain syndromes.
Methods: A total of 66 professional musicians, divided into three groups, are measured.
The division is performed by average duration of performance, intensity of daily exercise and professional experience. Video raster stereography, a three-dimensional analysis of the body posture, is used to analyse the instrument-specific posture. Furthermore the pressure distribution during seating is analysed. Measurements are performed because the musician is sitting on varying music chairs differing in structure and/or construction of the seating surface. The measurements take place in habitual seating position as well as during playing the instrument.
Results: To analyse the influence of different chairs, ANOVA for repeated measurements or Friedman-test is used, depending on normality assumptions. Comparison of posture between amateur musicians, students, and professional orchestral musicians is carried out the non-parametric Jonckheere-Terpstra-test.
Conclusions: Our method attempts to give the musicians indications for the right music chair choice by analyzing the chair concepts, so that thereby preemptively MSD can be reduced or prevented.
The critical debates of liberal peace are grounded in a "paradox of liberalism" (Sabaratnam 2013): Western liberalism is criticized as oppressive, colonial and bellicose, but also implicitly relied on as the source of emancipation. This has not rejected in a rejection of liberal interventionism, but rather in demands for more cultural sensitivity, more local participation or an efficient control to save the idea of liberal peace...
Die Wahlen über den Verbleib Großbritanniens in der EU haben die europäische Ordnung erschüttert. Der Vortrag/Die Präsentation soll nicht nur die Hintergründe beleuchten, sondern auch zeigen, welche Chancen die neue Situation eröffnet, Chancen, die es vorher so nicht gegeben hat...
Three basic elements should be part of researching in contexts where power asymmetries and colonial connotations are relevant (which applies to many, if not the majority of research contexts in conflict studies): a thorough reflexivity of the researcher’s own role and social conditioning, the construction of research as a political act as it intervenes in scientific and political discourse, and the fact that (especially empirical) research is a product of many (Kaltmeier 2012, Abu Lughod 1991)...
In my paper I claim that methodology inspired by postcolonial theory not only unearths how Western international institutions perpetuate hegemonic truth claims, but that at the same time engaging in a “learning to learn from below” might sense irritations within these truth claims which can open up spaces to think beyond truth in a sense of a justice to come. (Derrida 2002) Since the (mis)understanding of knowledge production as truth finding is constitutive of both, the scientific and the legal discourse, the engagement in such research accordingly has the potential to unfold a twofold deconstructive force...
"European" interventions
(2017)
While conflicts can be managed and resolved to the extent of peace keeping, evolving to state of peace and peace society is a far larger and challenging experience. The armed forces by definition and global practice are nurtured and trained to violence. However, it takes a lot more time and enough maturity and strength for a non-violent struggle...
Far-right parties gained considerable support in many European countries in recent years. Austria comes within a whisker of becoming the first country in the history of the European Union to elect a far-right president, Horbert Hofer, the candidate from the Freedom Party. Similarly, in France, Marie Le Pen is expected to be Front National’s (FN) candidate in the 2017 presidential election and probably to make it to the second round of voting...
Security, arms control, disarmament and confidence building measures in the Baltic sea region
(2017)
Taking into consideration the stalemete of all disarmament negotiations as well as the worsening situation in the Baltic Sea region, I would like to present another paper as well, discussing the security trends in the Baltic Sea region and the potential of confidence building measures in this region as well as to discuss in this context the prospects of arms control and disarmament in general as well as specifically in Europeparticularly in the Baltic Sea region...
Conflict and insecurity have largely been the major driving factors behind the current wave of population influx in Europe. It is desirable that to understand the current migrant crisis in Europe, it is essential to understand the nature of the on-going conflict and existing insecurities in the home states from where the migrants are coming...
When Donald Trump arrived to power, many experts were concerned regarding his ideas on U.S. nuclear weapons. Particular attention was paid to his tweet about strengthening the U.S. nuclear arsenal after 25 years of the consistent WMD-disarmament under "The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program" (aka "Nunn-Lugar Program" an array of START treaties). In that preiod, U.S. and Russia removed more than 8,000 warheads and elements of the nuclear triad – submarines, ICBMs and long-range bombers. Now, experts worry that Trump’s aspirations will bury the U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation aimed at global security...
Rethinking concepts of peace
(2017)
Motivated by a structural blind spot of Peace Studies regarding the (manifoldness of) definitions of its central concept "peace", I argue that this blind spot is especially manifested in the Eurocentric view on peace. My claim: Non-"Western" concepts of peace should be considered more in Peace Studies...
The overall aim of my work is to contribute to a future theory of epistemic violence – thereby enabling us to gain a better understanding of the various forms of direct, physical violence which are usually analysed within peace studies, IR, political theory and related fields. My perspective starts from transdisciplinary peace studies, is concerned with the sociology of knowledge, and informed by post- and de-colonial theory as well as by feminist critique and political theory...
For feminists, reflexivity has always meant more than a methodological tool...
AFK-EUPRA – 13 : feminist interventionism, postcolonial critique and non-western feminist approaches
(2017)
The study I would like to present concerns ethnically mixed borderland communities caught in a trap of competing national narratives spread from the surrounding states. I conduct an ethnographic research on a rare contemporary case of peaceful co-living of Armenian and Azerbaijani communities, which takes place in rural areas of Georgia’s southern borderland...
The concept of the "comprehensive approach" has become a paradigm for international state engagement in the field of fostering sustainable peace in crisis-ridden countries. This approach stipulates joint actions of different governmental institutions. The ministry of defence, providing interventionist armed forces; the ministry of interior, providing police personal; the ministry of foreign affairs, providing crisis aid and the ministry of economic cooperation and development define the core actors on the highest level, whilst the implementation of this approach is left to the various, highly heterogeneous employees of the ministries and their sub-contractors...
Armed resistance by interest groups against governments, their policies and symbols has a long history all across the world. During the currency of resistance movement, given the checkered stake holder ship in the conflict, weapon supply to funding of the myriad resistance groups has been a regular modus operandi to generate resistance movement funding...
Women’s protection has been largely discussed in conflict and gender scholarship and promoted as a key priority for governments, NGOs and international community. However, when critically analysed, the meaning of protection in conflict settings and the understanding of who should provide protection in emergencies, conflict and complex humanitarian crisis remain ambiguous. In long-term conflict settings for example, it is unclear whose role it is to protect civilians...