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We assess, through VAR evidence, the effects of monetary policy on banks’ risk exposure and find the presence of a risk-taking channel. A model combining fragile banks prone to risk mis-incentives and credit constrained firms, whose collateral fluctuations generate a balance sheet channel, is used to rationalize the evidence. A monetary expansion increases bank leverage. With two consequences: on the one side this exacerbates risk exposure; on the other, the risk spiral depresses output, therefore dampening the conventional amplification effect of the financial accelerator.
This dissertation introduces in chapter 1 a new comparative approach to model-based research and policy analysis by constructing an archive of business cycle models. It includes many well-known models used in academia and at policy institutions. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications for monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. Chapter 2 applies business cycle models to forecasting. Several New Keynesian models are estimated on historical U.S. data vintages and forecasts are computed for the five most recent recessions. The extent of forecast heterogeneity for models and professional forecasts is analysed. Chapter 3 extends the forecasting analysis to a long sample and to the evaluation of density forecasts. Weighted forecasts are computed using a variety of weighting schemes. The accuracy of forecasts is evaluated and compared to professional forecasts and forecasts from nonstructural time series methods. Chapter 4 adds a new feature to existing business cycle models. Specifically, a medium-scale New Keynesian model is constructed that allows for strategic complementarities in price-setting. The role of trade integration for monetary policy transmission is explored. A new dimension of the exchange rate channel is highlighted by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation. Chapter 5 tests whether simple symmetric monetary policy rules used in most business cycle models are a sufficient description of reality. I use quantile regressions to estimate policy parameters and find asymmetric reactions to inflation, the output gap and past interest rates.