Refine
Year of publication
- 2004 (114) (remove)
Document Type
- Working Paper (114) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- yes (114)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (114)
Keywords
- Anton Ulrich <Braunschweig-Wolfenbüttel (18)
- Herzog> / Octavia (18)
- Deutschland (13)
- Schätzung (7)
- Geldpolitik (6)
- Theorie (5)
- USA (5)
- Venture Capital (5)
- Corporate Governance (4)
- Kongress (4)
Institute
We determine optimal monetary policy under commitment in a forwardlooking New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates are bounded below by zero. The lower bound represents an occasionally binding constraint that causes the model and optimal policy to be nonlinear. A calibration to the U.S. economy suggests that policy should reduce nominal interest rates more aggressively than suggested by a model without lower bound. Rational agents anticipate the possibility of reaching the lower bound in the future and this amplifies the effects of adverse shocks well before the bound is reached. While the empirical magnitude of U.S. mark-up shocks seems too small to entail zero nominal interest rates, shocks affecting the natural real interest rate plausibly lead to a binding lower bound. Under optimal policy, however, this occurs quite infrequently and does not require targeting a positive average rate of inflation. Interestingly, the presence of binding real rate shocks alters the policy response to (non-binding) mark-up shocks. JEL Klassifikation: C63, E31, E52 .
Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. However, in an economy populated by a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable inflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high. JEL Klassifikation: C62, D83, D84, E31
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects. JEL Klassifikation: F3, F4, G1, C5
A large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact time-varying, leading to the prominence of the conditional CAPM. Set against that background, we assess the dynamics in realized betas, vis-à-vis the dynamics in the underlying realized market variance and individual equity covariances with the market. Working in the recently-popularized framework of realized volatility, we are led to a framework of nonlinear fractional cointegration: although realized variances and covariances are very highly persistent and well approximated as fractionally-integrated, realized betas, which are simple nonlinear functions of those realized variances and covariances, are less persistent and arguably best modeled as stationary I(0) processes. We conclude by drawing implications for asset pricing and portfolio management. JEL Klassifikation: C1, G1
Weltweit nehmen Kohle-, Öl- und Erdgasvorräte ab, der Energiebedarf dagegen steigt dramatisch an. Regenerative Energien mindern zwar die steigenden Klimagefahren, können aber unseren zukünftigen Energiebedarf in Ballungszentren kaum decken. Nach Einschätzung zahlreicher Experten gehört dem Wasserstoff die Zukunft. Er wird aber derzeit nahezu ausschließlich aus fossilen Brennstoffen gewonnen; damit bleibt auch diese Ressource endlich - ganz zu schweigen von ihrem hohen Gefährdungspotenzial. - Das neuartige Energiekonzept einer solaren und damit kohlenstoffunabhängigen Wasserstoffwirtschaft bedarf zur technischen Realisierung eines Zwischenspeichers für regenerative Energien. Dieser zukünftige Energieträger sollte synthetisch einfach erzeugbar sein, in unbegrenztem Maß zur Verfügung stehen oder zumindest recycelbar sein, die Energie permanent speichern und gefahrlos transportierbar sein, eine hohe Energiedichte aufweisen und kein Kohlendioxid oder andere (Klima-) Schadstoffe freisetzen. - Das Element Silicium kann zu einem maßgeschneiderten Bindeglied zur Ankoppelung dezentraler regenerativer Energieerzeugung an eine ebenso dezentrale Wasserstoffwirtschaft an jedem beliebigen Ort werden. Der Transport und die Speicherung von Silicium sind - im Gegensatz zu Öl oder besonders zu Wasserstoff - ohne Gefährdungspotenzial und/oder hohe Energieverluste möglich und erfordern nur eine technische Infrastruktur, wie sie auch für Kohle benötigt wird.
Global reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are diminishing; global energy requirements however are dramatically increasing. Renewable energy sources lower the threat to the earth’s climate but are not able to meet the energy consumption in major urban areas. The opinion of many experts is that the future will be dominated by hydrogen. However, this gas is essentially totally manufactured from fossil fuels and is hence of limited abundance – not to mention the hazards involved in its utilisation. - A novel energy concept involving solar and thus carbon-independent hydrogen-based technology necessitates an intermediate storage vehicle for renewable energy. This future energy carrier should be simple to manufacture, be available to an unlimited degree or at least be suitable for recycling, be able to store and transport the energy without hazards, demonstrate a high energy density and release no carbon dioxide or other climatically detrimental substances. - Silicon successfully functions as a tailor-made intermediate linking decentrally operating renewable energy-generation technology with equally decentrally organised hydrogen-based infrastructure at any location of choice. In contrast to oil and in particular hydrogen, the transport and storage of silicon are free from potential hazards and require a simple infrastructure similar to that needed for coal.
Die Diskussion der letzten Jahre um Managervergütungen, insbesondere seit der Mannesmann-Übernahme, hat Defizite in der lex lata hierzu ausgemacht. Dies und die weitgehende Nichtbefolgung der Empfehlungen des Deutschen Corporate Governance-Kodex zur Transparenz der Vorstandsvergütungen durch die große Mehrzahl der börsennotierten Gesellschaften erfordern eine Reaktion des Gesetzgebers. Eine gesetzliche Regelung erübrigt sich auch dann nicht, wenn sich künftig eine Mehrheit der börsennotierten Gesellschaften den Empfehlungen des Kodex anschließen sollte. Die Gründe hierfür im einzelnen und die Zielrichtung des Entwurfs ergeben sich aus der beigefügten Entwurfsbegründung. Der Kodex soll nicht entbehrlich gemacht, sondern durch einen gesetzlichen Mindeststandard unterstützt und ergänzt werden. Zusammengefaßt sieht der folgende Gesetzesvorschlag eine Veröffentlichung aller Vorstandsbezüge in börsennotierten Gesellschaften im Anhang zum Jahres- und Konzernabschluß vor. Dabei sollen als Mindeststandard die Angaben für das höchstbezahlte Vorstandsmitglied individualisiert, unter Namensnennung, erfolgen müssen. Die Angaben sind vom Abschlußprüfer zu prüfen. Ferner hat der Aufsichtsrat in seinem Bericht an die Hauptversammlung zur Angemessenheit der Vorstandsbezüge und zur Vergütungspolitik der Gesellschaft Stellung zu nehmen; die Aktionäre als die materiell Betroffenen können in der Hauptversammlung hierzu Fragen stellen und durch den Entlastungsbeschluß ihre Billigung oder Mißbilligung zum Ausdruck bringen. Der Gesetzesvorschlag setzt auf Transparenz und lehnt die Einführung weiterer materieller Kriterien zur Bemessung oder Begrenzung von Vorstandsvergütungen jenseits des § 87 AktG wie Deckelung der Vergütung durch absolute Höchstbeträge oder Bindung an Arbeitnehmervergütungen o.ä. ab. Insgesamt schließt sich der Entwurf Vorbildern entwickelter Kapitalmarktrechte, insbesondere der britischen Lösung an, die gleichfalls auf zwingende detaillierte Offenlegungs-, Prüfungs- und Rechenschaftspflichten setzt und deren Einführung und Befolgung nicht der freiwilligen Selbstregulierung überläßt.
This paper evaluates the effects of Public Sponsored Training in East Germany in the context of reiterated treatments. Selection bias based on observed characteristics is corrected for by applying kernel matching based on the propensity score. We control for further selection and the presence of Ashenfelter's Dip before the program with conditional difference-in-differences estimators. Training as a first treatment shows insignificant effects on the transition rates. The effect of program sequences and the incremental effect of a second program on the reemployment probability are insignificant. However, the incremental effect on the probability to remain employed is slightly positive. JEL - Klassifikation: H43 , C23 , J6 , J64 , C14
Even though tourism has been recognised as an important field for transnational research today, there are few attempts to place tourism in the context of transnational theories or to think about transnationalism from the perspective of tourists. I argue that in researching tourist practices one can add important aspects to transnational approaches. The prerequisites of mobility and interaction for example are the features chosen by backpackers to describe what their Round-The-World-Trip is about. A form of tourism is adopted, or created, that itself confronts many aspects of globalisation: First of all there is the immense dynamic that is involved. Backpackers try to cover as many places and experiences as possible, travelling at high speed. They adopt all kinds of touristic experiences ranging from beach to adventure to culture tourism. They don't focus on a specific area or country but travel the world. They cross national borders perpetually. Additionally they form a transnational network in which they interact with strangers of similar backgrounds (other backpackers, tourist professionals). This network helps them interacting with people from different backgrounds (the socalled hosts or locals). Considering my research Backpackers forge a certain identity from these transnational practices which I want to name globedentity. Globedentity expresses a type of identity construction that not only refers to the individual (I) but reflects the world (globe) in this identity. This globedentity is not fixed but is perpetually re-created and re-defined. It also embraces the increasing popular awareness of globalisation which backpackers, coming from highly educated middle class backgrounds, in particular have identified with. Due to the constant awareness of the latest global social, cultural and economic developments in these educated milieus they know exactly which tools to use to become successful parts of their societies.
We extend the important idea of range-based volatility estimation to the multivariate case. In particular, we propose a range-based covariance estimator that is motivated by financial economic considerations (the absence of arbitrage), in addition to statistical considerations. We show that, unlike other univariate and multivariate volatility estimators, the range-based estimator is highly efficient yet robust to market microstructure noise arising from bid-ask bounce and asynchronous trading. Finally, we provide an empirical example illustrating the value of the high-frequency sample path information contained in the range-based estimates in a multivariate GARCH framework.
This paper deals with the superhedging of derivatives and with the corresponding price bounds. A static superhedge results in trivial and fully nonparametric price bounds, which can be tightened if there exists a cheaper superhedge in the class of dynamic trading strategies. We focus on European path-independent claims and show under which conditions such an improvement is possible. For a stochastic volatility model with unbounded volatility, we show that a static superhedge is always optimal, and that, additionally, there may be infinitely many dynamic superhedges with the same initial capital. The trivial price bounds are thus the tightest ones. In a model with stochastic jumps or non-negative stochastic interest rates either a static or a dynamic superhedge is optimal. Finally, in a model with unbounded short rates, only a static superhedge is possible.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the properties of popular tests for the existence and the sign of the market price of volatility risk. These tests are frequently based on the fact that for some option pricing models under continuous hedging the sign of the market price of volatility risk coincides with the sign of the mean hedging error. Empirically, however, these tests suffer from both discretization error and model mis-specification. We show that these two problems may cause the test to be either no longer able to detect additional priced risk factors or to be unable to identify the sign of their market prices of risk correctly. Our analysis is performed for the model of Black and Scholes (1973) (BS) and the stochastic volatility (SV) model of Heston (1993). In the model of BS, the expected hedging error for a discrete hedge is positive, leading to the wrong conclusion that the stock is not the only priced risk factor. In the model of Heston, the expected hedging error for a hedge in discrete time is positive when the true market price of volatility risk is zero, leading to the wrong conclusion that the market price of volatility risk is positive. If we further introduce model mis-specification by using the BS delta in a Heston world we find that the mean hedging error also depends on the slope of the implied volatility curve and on the equity risk premium. Under parameter scenarios which are similar to those reported in many empirical studies the test statistics tend to be biased upwards. The test often does not detect negative volatility risk premia, or it signals a positive risk premium when it is truly zero. The properties of this test furthermore strongly depend on the location of current volatility relative to its long-term mean, and on the degree of moneyness of the option. As a consequence tests reported in the literature may suffer from the problem that in a time-series framework the researcher cannot draw the hedging errors from the same distribution repeatedly. This implies that there is no guarantee that the empirically computed t-statistic has the assumed distribution. JEL: G12, G13 Keywords: Stochastic Volatility, Volatility Risk Premium, Discretization Error, Model Error
Tests for the existence and the sign of the volatility risk premium are often based on expected option hedging errors. When the hedge is performed under the ideal conditions of continuous trading and correct model specification, the sign of the premium is the same as the sign of the mean hedging error for a large class of stochastic volatility option pricing models. We show, however, that the problems of discrete trading and model mis-specification, which are necessarily present in any empirical study, may cause the standard test to yield unreliable results.
When options are traded, one can use their prices and price changes to draw inference about the set of risk factors and their risk premia. We analyze tests for the existence and the sign of the market prices of jump risk that are based on option hedging errors. We derive a closed-form solution for the option hedging error and its expectation in a stochastic jump model under continuous trading and correct model specification. Jump risk is structurally different from, e.g., stochastic volatility: there is one market price of risk for each jump size (and not just \emph{the} market price of jump risk). Thus, the expected hedging error cannot identify the exact structure of the compensation for jump risk. Furthermore, we derive closed form solutions for the expected option hedging error under discrete trading and model mis-specification. Compared to the ideal case, the sign of the expected hedging error can change, so that empirical tests based on simplifying assumptions about trading frequency and the model may lead to incorrect conclusions.
Das Bankgeheimnis stellt weder ein absolutes Verbot der Weitergabe kundenbezogener Informationen noch ein Verbot der Abtretung von Forderungen gegen Kunden dar. Die aus dem Bankgeheimnis folgende Pflicht zur vertraulichen Behandlung von Informationen über Kunden wird ihrerseits durch immanente Grenzen beschränkt, soweit es die Ausübung von Gläubigerrechten der Bank in Frage steht. Eine Veräußerung und Abtretung von Forderungen und die dafür notwendige Weitergabe der Kundendaten wird daher durch das Bankgeheimnis nicht ausgeschlossen. Das Bankgeheimnis verpflichtet die Bank allerdings dazu, bei der Ausübung ihrer Gläubigerrechte die Vertraulichkeit der Informationen über die Geschäftsbeziehung so weit wie nur möglich zu wahren. Weitergehende Schranken zieht auch das Datenschutzrecht der Verwaltung und Verwertung von Forderungen durch die Bank nicht.
Anmerkungen zum Urteil des BGH vom 24. November 2003, II ZR 171/01 : Das Urteil des BGH vom 24. 11. 2003 verschärft das Recht der Kapitalerhaltung empfindlich. Der Leitsatz, Kreditgewährungen an Gesellschafter, die nicht aus Rücklagen oder Gewinnvorträgen, sondern zu Lasten des gebundenen Vermögens der GmbH erfolgen, sind auch dann grundsätzlich als verbotene Auszahlung von Gesellschaftsvermögen zu bewerten, wenn der Rückzahlungsanspruch gegen den Gesellschafter im Einzelfall vollwertig sein sollte und die zugehörigen Urteilsgründe lassen erhebliche Auswirkungen nicht nur auf das Finanzierungsgebaren kleiner Gesellschaften, um die es in dem vom BGH entschiedenen Fall ging, sondern auch auf die Möglichkeiten der Innenfinanzierung großer Konzerne befürchten.
Das neue Insiderrecht
(2004)
Mit Inkrafttreten von Art. 1 des Gesetzes zur Verbesserung des Anlegerschutzes (Anlegerschutzverbesserungsgesetz - AnSVG) am 30. Oktober 2004 hat das WpHG zahlreiche Änderungen erfahren. Die nachfolgenden Ausführung gehen anhand einiger ausgewählter Beispiel der Frage nach, inwieweit die Marktmißbrauchsrichtlinie und ihre Umsetzung durch das AnSVG das bisher geltende Insiderrecht geändert haben. Vorab sei bemerkt, daß die Aufgabe, das neue Recht einigermaßen zutreffend zu interpretieren, durch die Besonderheiten des Rechtssetzungsverfahrens, das schließlich in die Neufassung des WpHG eingemündet ist, nicht gerade erleichtert wird: Die europarechtlichen Vorgaben finden sich nicht mehr nur in einer einzigen Richtlinie, sondern sind aufgrund des Komitologieverfahrens über zahlreiche Rechtsakte verteilt. Für das Insiderrecht sind neben der Marktmißbrauchsrichtlinie mehrere Durchführungsrichtlinien und eine Verordnung der Kommission von Bedeutung, für deren Verständnis wiederum die CESR-Vorschläge zusätzliche Anhaltspunkte bieten. Da schon die deutsche Fassung der Richtlinien in etlichen Punkten von den jeweiligen englischen Version und das WpHG wiederum nicht selten von den Richtlinien abweicht, entsteht bisweilen eine Art "stille Post"-Effekt, der es noch mehr als schon bislang notwendig macht, sich bei der Auslegung der Begriffe des WpHG zu vergewissern, ob sich die Umsetzung durch den deutschen Gesetzgeber innerhalb des europarechtlichen Rahmens bewegt. Insbesondere auf der Sanktionenseite ist das nicht durchweg der Fall.
In dieser Studie werden die Wirkungen von Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen (ABM) in Deutschland auf die individuellen Eingliederungswahrscheinlichkeiten der Teilnehmer in reguläre Beschäftigung evaluiert. Für die Untersuchung wird ein umfangreicher und informativer Datensatz aus den Datenquellen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) verwendet, der es ermöglicht, die Wirkungen der Programme differenziert nach individuellen Unterschieden der Teilnehmer und mit Berücksichtigung der heterogenen Arbeitsmarktstruktur zu untersuchen. Der Datensatz enthält Informationen zu allen Teilnehmern in ABM, die ihre Maßnahmen im Februar 2000 begonnen haben, und zu einer Kontrollgruppe von Nichtteilnehmern, die im Januar 2000 arbeitslos waren und im Februar 2000 nicht in die Programme eingetreten sind. Mit Hilfe der Informationen der Beschäftigtenstatistik ist es hierbei erstmals möglich, den Abgang in reguläre Beschäftigung auf Grundlage administrativer Daten zu untersuchen. Der vorliegende Verbleibszeitraum reicht bis Dezember 2002. Unter Verwendung von Matching-Methoden auf dem Ansatz potenzieller Ergebnisse werden die Effekte von ABM mit regionaler Unterscheidung und für besondere Problem- und Zielgruppen des Arbeitsmarktes geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar deutliche Unterschiede in den Effekten für Subgruppen, insgesamt weisen die empirischen Befunde jedoch darauf hin, dass das Ziel der Eingliederung in reguläre ungeförderte Beschäftigung durch ABM weitgehend nicht realisiert werden konnte. JEL: C40 , C13 , J64 , H43 , J68
We take a simple time-series approach to modeling and forecasting daily average temperature in U.S. cities, and we inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives market. The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, yes. Time-series modeling reveals conditional mean dynamics, and crucially, strong conditional variance dynamics, in daily average temperature, and it reveals sharp differences between the distribution of temperature and the distribution of temperature surprises. As we argue, it also holds promise for producing the long-horizon predictive densities crucial for pricing weather derivatives, so that additional inquiry into time-series weather forecasting methods will likely prove useful in weather derivatives contexts.
This paper analyzes banks' choice between lending to firms individually and sharing lending with other banks, when firms and banks are subject to moral hazard and monitoring is essential. Multiple-bank lending is optimal whenever the benefit of greater diversification in terms of higher monitoring dominates the costs of free-riding and duplication of efforts. The model predicts a greater use of multiple-bank lending when banks are small relative to investment projects, firms are less profitable, and poor financial integration, regulation and inefficient judicial systems increase monitoring costs. These results are consistent with empirical observations concerning small business lending and loan syndication. JEL Klassifikation: D82; G21; G32.
We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently - and separately - in the financial economics literature: conditional mean dependence (or lack thereof) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs, and dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return volatilities. We show that they are very much interrelated, and we explore the relationships in detail. Among other things, we show that: (a) Volatility dependence produces sign dependence, so long as expected returns are nonzero, so that one should expect sign dependence, given the overwhelming evidence of volatility dependence; (b) The standard finding of little or no conditional mean dependence is entirely consistent with a significant degree of sign dependence and volatility dependence; (c) Sign dependence is not likely to be found via analysis of sign autocorrelations, runs tests, or traditional market timing tests, because of the special nonlinear nature of sign dependence; (d) Sign dependence is not likely to be found in very high-frequency (e.g., daily) or very low-frequency (e.g., annual) returns; instead, it is more likely to be found at intermediate return horizons; (e) Sign dependence is very much present in actual U.S. equity returns, and its properties match closely our theoretical predictions; (f) The link between volatility forecastability and sign forecastability remains intact in conditionally non-Gaussian environments, as for example with time-varying conditional skewness and/or kurtosis.
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this quantitative comparison in an empirical macroeconometric model of Japan, the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, we use a stylized micro-founded two-country model to check our qualitative findings. We find that both proposals succeed in generating inflationary expectations and work almost equally well under full credibility of monetary policy. However, price-level targeting may be less effective under imperfect credibility, because the announced price-level target path is not directly observable. Klassifikation: E31, E52, E58, E61
We analyze governance with a dataset on investments of venture capitalists in 3848 portfolio firms in 39 countries from North and South America, Europe and Asia spanning 1971-2003. We find that cross-country differences in Legality have a significant impact on the governance structure of investments in the VC industry: better laws facilitate faster deal screening and deal origination, a higher probability of syndication and a lower probability of potentially harmful co-investment, and facilitate board representation of the investor. We also show better laws reduce the probability that the investor requires periodic cash flows prior to exit, which is in conjunction with an increased probability of investment in high-tech companies. Klassifikation: G24, G31, G32.
The question whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) will result in measurable economic benefits is of special policy relevance in particular given the European Union’s decision to require the application of IFRS by listed companies from 2005/2007. In this paper, I investigate the common con-jecture that internationally recognized high quality reporting standards (IAS/IFRS or US-GAAP) reduce the cost of capital of adopting firms (e.g. Levitt 1998; IASB 2002). Building on Leuz/Verrecchia (2000), I use a set of German firms which pre-adopted such standards before 2005, but investigate the potential economic benefits by analyzing their expected cost of equity capital utilizing and customizing avail-able implied estimation methods (e.g. Gebhardt/Lee/Swaminathan 2001, Easton/Taylor/Shroff/Sougiannis 2002, Easton 2004). Evidence from a sample of about 13,000 HGB, 4,500 IAS/IFRS and 3,000 US-GAAP firm-month observations in the period 1993-2002 generally fails to document lower expected cost of equity capital and therefore measurable economic benefits for firms applying IAS/IFRS or US-GAAP. Accordingly, I caution to state that reporting under internationally accepted standards, per se, lowers the cost of equity capital of adopting firms.
In this study, we develop a technique for estimating a firm’s expected cost of equity capital derived from analyst consensus forecasts and stock prices. Building on the work of Gebhardt/Lee/-Swaminathan (2001) and Easton/Taylor/Shroff/Sougiannis (2002), our approach allows daily estimation, using only publicly available information at that date. We then estimate the expected cost of equity capital at the market, industry and individual firm level using historical German data from 1989-2002 and examine firm characteristics which are systematically related to these estimates. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the concept in a contemporary case study for DaimlerChrysler and the European automobile industry.
Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross section of interest rates at any given time but neglects time-series dynamics, nor the equilibrium approach, which focuses on time-series dynamics (primarily those of the instantaneous rate) but pays comparatively little attention to fitting the entire cross section at any given time and has been shown to forecast poorly. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson-Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts. JEL Code: G1, E4, C5
How might retirees consider deploying the retirement assets accumulated in a defined contribution pension plan? One possibility would be to purchase an immediate annuity. Another approach, called the "phased withdrawal" strategy in the literature, would have the retiree invest his funds and then withdraw some portion of the account annually. Using this second tactic, the withdrawal rate might be determined according to a fixed benefit level payable until the retiree dies or the funds run out, or it could be set using a variable formula, where the retiree withdraws funds according to a rule linked to life expectancy. Using a range of data consistent with the German experience, we evaluate several alternative designs for phased withdrawal strategies, allowing for endogenous asset allocation patterns, and also allowing the worker to make decisions both about when to retire and when to switch to an annuity. We show that one particular phased withdrawal rule is appealing since it offers relatively low expected shortfall risk, good expected payouts for the retiree during his life, and some bequest potential for the heirs. We also find that unisex mortality tables if used for annuity pricing can make women's expected shortfalls higher, expected benefits higher, and bequests lower under a phased withdrawal program. Finally, we show that delayed annuitization can be appealing since it provides higher expected benefits with lower expected shortfalls, at the cost of somewhat lower anticipated bequests. Klassifikation: G22, G23, J26, J32, H55 . January 2004.
This Article concerns the duty of care in American corporate law. To fully understand that duty, it is necessary to distinguish between roles, functions, standards of conduct, and standards of review. A role consists of an organized and socially recognized pattern of activity in which individuals regularly engage. In organizations, roles take the form of positions, such as the position of the director. A function consists of an activity that an actor is expected to engage in by virtue of his role or position. A standard of conduct states the way in which an actor should play a role, act in his position, or conduct his functions. A standard of review states the test that a court should apply when it reviews an actor’s conduct to determine whether to impose liability, grant injunctive relief, or determine the validity of his actions. In many or most areas of law, standards of conduct and standards of review tend to be conflated. For example, the standard of conduct that governs automobile drivers is that they should drive carefully, and the standard of review in a liability claim against a driver is whether he drove carefully. Similarly, the standard of conduct that governs an agent who engages in a transaction with his principal is that the agent must deal fairly, and the standard of review in a claim by the principal against an agent, based on such a transaction, is whether the agent dealt fairly. The conflation of standards of conduct and standards of review is so common that it is easy to overlook the fact that whether the two kinds of standards are or should be identical in any given area is a matter of prudential judgment. In a corporate world in which information was perfect, the risk of liability for assuming a given corporate role was always commensurate with the incentives for assuming the role, and institutional considerations never required deference to a corporate organ, the standards of conduct and review in corporate law might be identical. In the real world, however, these conditions seldom hold, and in American corporate law the standards of review pervasively diverge from the standards of conduct. Traditionally, the two major areas of American corporate law that involved standards of conduct and review have been the duty of care and the duty of loyalty. The duty of loyalty concerns the standards of conduct and review applicable to a director or officer who takes action, or fails to act, in a matter that does involve his own self-interest. The duty of care concerns the standards of conduct and review applicable to a director or officer who takes action, or fails to act, in a matter that does not involve his own self-interest.
This paper suggests a motive for bank mergers that goes beyond alleged and typically unverifiable scale economies: preemtive resolution of banks´ financial distress. Such "distress mergers" can be a significant motivation for mergers because they can foster reorganizations, realize diversification gains, and avoid public attention. However, since none of these potential benefits comes without a cost, the overall assessment of distress mergers is unclear. We conduct an empirical analysis to provide evidence on consequences of distress mergers. The analysis is based on comprehensive data from Germany´s savings and cooperatives banks sectors over the period 1993 to 2001. During this period both sectors faced significant structural problems and superordinate institutions (associations) presumably have engaged in coordinated actions to manage distress mergers. The data comprise 3640 banks and 1484 mergers. Our results suggest that bank mergers as a means of preemtive distress resolution have moderate costs in terms of the economic impact on performance. We do find strong evidence consistent with diversification gains. Thus, distress mergers seem to have benefits without affecting systematic stability adversely.
Empirical evidence suggests that even those firms presumably most in need of monitoringintensive financing (young, small, and innovative firms) have a multitude of bank lenders, where one may be special in the sense of relationship lending. However, theory does not tell us a lot about the economic rationale for relationship lending in the context of multiple bank financing. To fill this gap, we analyze the optimal debt structure in a model that allows for multiple but asymmetric bank financing. The optimal debt structure balances the risk of lender coordination failure from multiple lending and the bargaining power of a pivotal relationship bank. We show that firms with low expected cash-flows or low interim liquidation values of assets prefer asymmetric financing, while firms with high expected cash-flow or high interim liquidation values of assets tend to finance without a relationship bank. JEL - Klassifikation: G21 , G78 , G33
This paper considers a theoretical model of n asymmetric firms that reduce their initial unit costs by spending on R&D activities. In accordance with Schumpeterian hypotheses we obtain that more efficient (bigger) firms spend more in R&D and this leads to a more concentrated market structure. We also find a positive relationship between innovation and market concentration. This calls for a corrective tax on R&D activities to curtail strategic incentives to over-invest in R&D trying to achieve a higher market share. Klassifikation: L11, L52, O31 . February, 2004.
We analyze welfare maximizing monetary policy in a dynamic two-country model with price stickiness and imperfect competition. In this context, a typical terms of trade externality affects policy interaction between independent monetary authorities. Unlike the existing literature, we remain consistent to a public finance approach by an explicit consideration of all the distortions that are relevant to the Ramsey planner. This strategy entails two main advantages. First, it allows an accurate characterization of optimal policy in an economy that evolves around a steady-state which is not necessarily efficient. Second, it allows to describe a full range of alternative dynamic equilibria when price setters in both countries are completely forward-looking and households' preferences are not restricted. In this context, we study optimal policy both in the long-run and along a dynamic path, and we compare optimal commitment policy under Nash competition and under cooperation. By deriving a second order accurate solution to the policy functions, we also characterize the welfare gains from international policy cooperation. Klassifikation: E52, F41 . This version: January, 2004. First draft: October 2003 .
In a framework closely related to Diamond and Rajan (2001) we characterize different financial systems and analyze the welfare implications of different LOLR-policies in these financial systems. We show that in a bank-dominated financial system it is less likely that a LOLR-policy that follows the Bagehot rules is preferable. In financial systems with rather illiquid assets a discretionary individual liquidity assistance might be welfare improving, while in market-based financial systems, with rather liquid assets in the banks' balance sheets, emergency liquidity assistance provided freely to the market at a penalty rate is likely to be efficient. Thus, a "one size fits all"-approach that does not take the differences of financial systems into account is misguiding. JEL - Klassifikation: D52 , E44 , G21 , E52 , E58
The Basel Committee plans to differentiate risk-adjusted capital requirements between banks regulated under the internal ratings based (IRB) approach and banks under the standard approach. We investigate the consequences for the lending capacity and the failure risk of banks in a model with endogenous interest rates. The optimal regulatory response depends on the banks' inclination to increase their portfolio risk. If IRB-banks are well-capitalized or gain little from taking risks, then they will increase their market share and hold safe portfolios. As risk-taking incentives become more important, the optimal portfolio size of banks adopting intern rating systems will be increasingly constrained, and ultimately they may lose market share relative to banks using the standard approach. The regulator has only limited options to avoid the excessive adoption of internal rating systems. JEL Klassifikation: K13, H41.
Thema dieser Arbeit ist eine ökonomische Einordnung der Förderung der beruflichen Weiterbildung (FbW) als Teil der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland. Die Analyse erfolgt im Lichte des sektoralen Wandel, der Verschiebung der qualifikatorischen Arbeitsnachfrage und der vorrauszusehenden Produktivitätseffekte im Zusammenhang mit einer alternden Gesellschaft. Auf Basis der Humankapitaltheorie wird zunächst theoretisch erörtert, inwieweit sich FbW als Teil der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik aus Effizienz- und Verteiliungsgesichtspunkten rechtfertigen lässt und in welcher Form FbW sinnvoll sein kann.
Unter dem Stichwort "Patchwork-Biografien" wird die Tatsache, dass ein großer Teil der abhängig Beschäftigten ihren erlernten Beruf nicht mehr ausüben, in jüngster Zeit viel diskutiert. Diese Studie liefert einen empirischen Beitrag zur Anatomie der Berufswechsel für westdeutsche Männer auf Basis der BIBB/IABDaten 1998/1999. Als Grundlage für die empirische Analyse wird ein theoretisches Modell der Wahl zwischen horizontal differenzierten Berufen entwickelt. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse sind: Ex post beobachtete Berufswechsel hängen negativ vom Durchschnittslohn im Ausbildungsberuf und positiv vom Durchschnittslohn im Erwerbsberuf ab. Der deskriptiv beobachtete durchschnittliche Entlohnungseffekt eines Berufswechsels ist signifikant positiv, verstärkt sich noch, wenn für den Ausbildungsberuf kontrolliert wird, und ist demgegenüber signifikant negativ, wenn für den Erwerbsberuf kontrolliert wird. Der geschätzte kausale durchschnittliche Entlohnungseffekt ist positiv. Die Ergebnisse sind insgesamt damit konsistent, dass Berufswechsel vor allem damit zusammenhängen, dass Beschäftigte im neuen Erwerbsberuf größere Verdienst- und Karrierechancen wahrnehmen können. JEL - Klassifikation: J62 , J31 , J24 , C21
This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West- Germany before and after the changes during the mid 1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for elderly unemployed. The analysis is based on the comprehensive IAB employment subsample containing register panel data for about 500.000 individuals in West Germany. We analyze two proxies for unemployment since the data do not precisely measure unemployment in an economic sense. We provide a theoretical analysis of the link between the durations of nonemployment and of unemployment between jobs. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distributions of nonemployment durations for older unemployed individuals. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs did not change in response to the reforms. Our findings are consistent with an interpretation that many firms and workers used the more bene cial laws as a part of early retirement packages but those workers who were still looking for a job did not reduce their search effort in response to the extension of the maximum entitlement periods. This interpretation is consistent with our theoretical model under plausible assumptions. JEL: C24, J64, J65
The Box-Cox quantile regression model using the two stage method introduced by Chamberlain (1994) and Buchinsky (1995) provides an attractive extension of linear quantile regression techniques. However, a major numerical problem exists when implementing this method which has not been addressed so far in the literature. We suggest a simple solution modifying the estimator slightly. This modification is easy to implement. The modified estimator is still [square root] n-consistent and its asymptotic distribution can easily be derived. A simulation study confirms that the modified estimator works well.
The hadronic final state of central Pb+Pb collisions at 20, 30, 40, 80, and 158 AGeV has been measured by the CERN NA49 collaboration. The mean transverse mass of pions and kaons at midrapidity stays nearly constant in this energy range, whereas at lower energies, at the AGS, a steep increase with beam energy was measured. Compared to p+p collisions as well as to model calculations, anomalies in the energy dependence of pion and kaon production at lower SPS energies are observed. These findings can be explained, assuming that the energy density reached in central A+A collisions at lower SPS energies is sufficient to force the hot and dense nuclear matter into a deconfined phase.
Recent evidence on the effect of government spending shocks on consumption cannot be easily reconciled with existing optimizing business cycle models. We extend the standard New Keynesian model to allow for the presence of rule-of-thumb (non-Ricardian) consumers. We show how the interaction of the latter with sticky prices and deficit financing can account for the existing evidence on the effects of government spending. JEL Klassifikation: E32, E62.
Der Bestimmung risikoadäquater Diskontierungssätze kommt bei der Unternehmensbedeutung eine zentrale Bedeutung zu. Wird zu deren Bestimmung in der praktischen Anwendung das CAPM verwendet, gilt es dabei, risikolose Zinssätze und Risikoprämien zu bestimmen, für die erwartete Renditen des Marktportfeuilles und Beta-Faktoren als Maßgrößen für das systematische Risiko benötigt werden. Passend zu den zu bewertenden erwarteten Überschussgrößen sollten auch die zur Diskontierung verwendeten Renditeforderungen die im Bewertungszeitpunkt erwarteten künftigen Renditen vergleichbarer Anlagen widerspiegeln. Die weitaus meisten Beiträge zur Operationalisierung des CAPM leiten die Renditeforderungen jedoch aus historischen Kapitalmarktrenditen ab. Wir zeigen in diesem Beitrag auf, wie erwartete künftige Renditen aus beobachtbaren Größen, vor allen den Zinsstrukturkurven und den beobachtbaren Analystenprognosen, zukunftsorientiert abgeleitet werden können. Damit wird eine konzeptionell schlüssigere Bewertung der im Bewertungszeitpunkt erwarteten künftigen Überschüsse mit den zeitgleich erwarteten künftigen Renditen ermöglicht.
We show that multi-bank loan pools improve the risk-return profile of banks’ loan business. Banks write simple contracts on the proceeds from pooled loan portfolios, taking into account the free-rider problems in joint loan production. Thus, banks benefit greatly from diversifying credit risk while limiting the efficiency loss due to adverse incentives. We present calibration results that the formation of loan pools reduce the volatility in default rates, proxying for credit risk, of participating banks’ loan portfolios by roughly 70% in our sample. Under reasonable assumptions, the gain in return on equity (in certainty equivalent terms) is around 20 basis points annually.
This paper compares the accuracy of credit ratings of Moody s and Standard&Poors. Based on 11,428 issuer ratings and 350 defaults in several datasets from 1999 to 2003 a slight advantage for the rating system of Moody s is detected. Compared to former research the robustness of the results is increased by using nonparametric bootstrap approaches. Furthermore, robustness checks are made to control for the impact of Watchlist entries, staleness of ratings and the effect of unsolicited ratings on the results.
A widely recognized paper by Colin Mayer (1988) has led to a profound revision of academic thinking about financing patterns of corporations in different countries. Using flow-of-funds data instead of balance sheet data, Mayer and others who followed his lead found that internal financing is the dominant mode of financing in all countries, that financing patterns do not differ very much between countries and that those differences which still seem to exist are not at all consistent with the common conviction that financial systems can be classified as being either bank-based or capital market-based. This leads to a puzzle insofar as it calls into question the empirical foundation of the widely held belief that there is a correspondence between the financing patterns of corporations on the one side, and the structure of the financial sector and the prevailing corporate governance system in a given country on the other side. The present paper addresses this puzzle on a methodological and an empirical basis. It starts by comparing and analyzing various ways of measuring financial structure and financing patterns and by demonstrating that the surprising empirical results found by studies that relied on net flows are due to a hidden assumption. It then derives an alternative method of measuring financing patterns, which also uses flow-of-funds data, but avoids the questionable assumption. This measurement concept is then applied to patterns of corporate financing in Germany, Japan and the United States. The empirical results, which use an estimation technique for determining gross flows of funds in those cases in which empirical data are not available, are very much in line with the commonly held belief prior to Mayer’s influential contribution and indicate that the financial systems of the three countries do indeed differ from one another in a substantial way, and moreover in a way which is largely in line with the general view of the differences between the financial systems of the countries covered in the present paper.
This paper investigates the magnitude and the main determinants of share price reactions to buy-back announcements of German corporations. For our comprehensive sample of 224 announcements that took place between May 1998 and April 2003 we find average cumulative abnormal returns around -7.5% for the thirty days preceding the announcement and around +7.0 % for the ten days following the announcement. We regress post-announcement abnormal returns with multiple firm characteristics and provide evidence which supports the undervaluation signaling hypothesis but not the excess cash hypothesis or the tax-efficiency hypothesis. In extending prior empirical work, we also analyze price effects from initial statements of firms that they intend to seek shareholder approval for a buy-back plan. Observed cumulative abnormal returns on this initial date are in excess of 5% implying a total average price effect between 12% and 15% from implementing a buy-back plan. We conjecture that the German regulatory environment is the main reason why market variations to buy-back announcements are much stronger in Germany than in other countries and conclude that initial statements by managers to seek shareholders’ approval for a buy-back plan should also be subject to legal ad-hoc disclosure requirements.
Die vorliegende Fallstudie zu den Anciens Combattants in Diébougou ist das Ergebnis einer Lehrforschung der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt am Main, Institut für Historische Ethnologie, die vom 24. August 2001 bis zum 16. Dezember 2001 unter der Leitung von Prof. Carola Lentz, und der Betreuung durch Dr. Katja Werthmann, Dr. Richard Kuba sowie in Kooperation mit der Universität von Ouagadougou (Département d’Histoire et d’Archéologie) in Burkina Faso stattfand. Allen genannten Personen und Institutionen sei an dieser Stelle ausdrücklich gedankt. Die Fallstudie reichte ich im Februar 2004 als Magister-Abschlussarbeit am Fachbereich Geschichtswissenschaften (Historische Ethnologie) der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt am Main, bei Prof. Carola Lentz und Prof. Karl-Heinz Kohl ein. Der Großteil der ursprünglich im Anhang der Magisterarbeit enthaltenen Dokumente, Karten und Photos wurde ausgelagert, und der Text erfuhr eine geringfügige Überarbeitung. Im Anschluss an einen vierwöchigen Dioula-Sprachkurs in Bobo-Dioulasso folgte die dreimonatige Erhebungsphase in Diébougou, sowohl Hauptort (chef-lieu) der Provinz Bougouriba im Südwesten Burkina Fasos, Markt- als auch Verwaltungszentrum mit 11 637 Einwohnern (siehe http://www.ambf.bf/f_mairies.html). Interethnische Beziehungen, Siedlungsgeschichte und Bodenrecht waren die übergeordneten Themen des ethnologischen Teilprojekts A9 des Sonderforschungsbereichs 268 "Kulturentwicklung und Sprachgeschichte im Naturraum Westafrikanische Savanne" der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, der die Durchführung der Lehrforschung finanziell unterstützte, und dem ich gleichsam danken möchte.
Am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts wird der Zustand der US-Demokratie kontrovers diskutiert. Während manche Beobachter eine zu hohe Responsivität des politischen Systems gegenüber den Ansprüchen seiner Bürger entdeckt haben wollen und deshalb von demosclerosis und einer Hyperdemokratie sprechen, in welcher der Volkswille in einen unantastbaren, göttlichen Rang erhoben worden sei, kommen andere zu dem Schluss, dass die Gründerväter im Hinblick auf ihre handlungsanleitende Furcht vor einer »Tyrannei der Mehrheit« ganze Arbeit geleistet und ein nahezu unüberwindbares System von Vetopositionen geschaffen hätten, das Partikularinteressen strukturell bevorzuge und deshalb nur in Ausnahmesituationen die Mehrheitspräferenzen der Bürger in Politik umsetze. Kurzum: Die Furcht der Federalists vor einer »Mehrheitstyrannei« habe einer »Minderheitstyrannei« Tür und Tor geöffnet. Der Artikel versucht die Vereinigten Staaten in diesem Spannungsbogen zu verorten. Ziel ist es, die Qualität der amerikanischen Demokratie am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts zu problematisieren. Dabei werden auch die Entwicklungen nach dem 11. September berücksichtigt.