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It is common practice to use a 30-year period to derive climatological values, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. However this convention relies on important assumptions, of which the validity can be examined by deriving the uncertainty inherent to using a limited time-period for deriving climatological values. In this study a new method, aiming at deriving this uncertainty, has been developed with an application to precipitation for a station in Europe (Westdorpe) and one in Africa (Gulu). The weather generator framework is used to produce synthetic daily precipitation time-series that can also be regarded as alternative climate realizations. The framework consists of an improved Markov model, which shows good performance in reproducing the 5-day precipitation variability. The sub-seasonal, seasonal and the inter-annual signals are introduced in the weather generator framework by including covariates. These covariates are derived from an empirical mode decomposition analysis with an improved stability and significance assessment. Introducing covariates was found to substantially improve the monthly precipitation variability for Gulu. From the weather generator, 1,000 synthetic time-series were produced. The divergence between these time-series demonstrates an uncertainty, inherent to using a 30-year period for mean precipitation, of 11 % for Westdorpe and 15 % for Gulu. The uncertainty for precipitation 10-year return levels was found to be 37 % for both sites.
In this study we show how size-resolved measurements of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can be used to characterize the supersaturation of water vapor in a cloud. The method was developed and applied during the ACRIDICON-Zugspitze campaign (17 September to 4 October 2012) at the high-Alpine research station Schneefernerhaus (German Alps, 2650 m a.s.l.). Number size distributions of total and interstitial aerosol particles were measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra were recorded with a CCN counter system operated at different supersaturation levels.
During the evolution of a cloud, aerosol particles are exposed to different supersaturation levels. We outline and compare different estimates for the lower and upper bounds (Slow, Shigh) and the average value (Savg) of peak supersaturation encountered by the particles in the cloud. A major advantage of the derivation of Slow and Savg from size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra is that it does not require the specific knowledge or assumptions about aerosol hygroscopicity that are needed to derive estimates of Slow, Shigh, and Savg from aerosol size distribution data. For the investigated cloud event, we derived Slow ≈ 0.07–0.25%, Shigh ≈ 0.86–1.31% and Savg ≈ 0.42–0.68%.
This assessment concept paper provides a methodological approach for the formative assessment and summative assessment of GIZ’s International Water Stewardship Programme (IWaSP) and its component partnerships. IWaSP promotes partnerships between the private sector (corporations and SMEs), the public sector and the society to tackle shared water risks and to manage water equitably to meet competing demands. This evaluative assessment concept describes the generic approach of the assessment, the cycle for the assessment of partnerships, the country coordination and the programme.
The overall goal of the assessment is to provide evidence for taxpayers in the donor countries and for citizens in the partnership countries. It also aims to examine the relevance of the programme’s approach, its underlying assumptions, and the heterogeneity of stakeholders and their specific interests. Since the assessment is also formative feedback to GIZ and IWaSP stakeholders, it aims to guide the future implementation of the partnerships and the programme.
The assessment is guided by several generic principles: assessing for learning (formative assessment); assessment of learning (summative assessment); iteration; structuring complex problems; unblocking results; and conformity with other assessment criteria set out by the OECD the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and GIZ’s Capacity Works success factors (GTZ 2010).
These generic criteria are adapted to the three levels of the IWaSP structure. First, the assessment cycle for partnerships includes the validation of stakeholders (mapping), the analysis of secondary literature, face-to-face interviews and a process for feeding back the findings. Generic tools are provided to guide the assessment, such as a list of key documents and an interview guide. Partnerships will undergo a baseline, interim assessment and final assessment. As progress varies across individual IWaSP partnerships, the steps taken by each partnership to assess shared water risks, prioritise and agree interventions, are expected to differ slightly. In response to these differences the sequencing and content of the assessment may need to be adapted for the different partnerships.
Second, the country-level assessment considers issues such as the coordination of partnerships within a country, scoping strategies, and interaction between partnership and the programme. Information gathered during the partnership assessment feeds into the country-level assessment.
Third, the assessment cycle for the programme involves a document and monitoring plan analysis, reflection on the different perspectives of the programme staff, country staff and external stakeholders.
The final section is concerned with reporting. Several annexes are provided relating to the organisation and preparation of the assessment, including question guidelines and analysis procedures.
We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic fragility indicators for euro area banks and sovereigns, based on CDS prices. Our analysis documents that although the fragility of the euro area banking system had started to deteriorate before Lehman Brothers' file for bankruptcy, investors did not expect the crisis to affect euro area sovereigns' solvency until September 2008. Since then, and especially after November 2009, joint sovereign default risk has outpaced the rise of systemic risk within the banking system.
Antigen presentation to cytotoxic T lymphocytes via major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC I) molecules depends on the heterodimeric transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP). For efficient antigen supply to MHC I molecules in the ER, TAP assembles a macromolecular peptide-loading complex (PLC) by recruiting tapasin. In evolution, TAP appeared together with effector cells of adaptive immunity at the transition from jawless to jawed vertebrates and diversified further within the jawed vertebrates. Here, we compared TAP function and interaction with tapasin of a range of species within two classes of jawed vertebrates. We found that avian and mammalian TAP1 and TAP2 form heterodimeric complexes across taxa. Moreover, the extra N-terminal domain TMD0 of mammalian TAP1 and TAP2 as well as avian TAP2 recruits tapasin. Strikingly, however, only TAP1 and TAP2 from the same taxon can form a functional heterodimeric translocation complex. These data demonstrate that the dimerization interface between TAP1 and TAP2 and the tapasin docking sites for PLC assembly are conserved in evolution, whereas elements of antigen translocation diverged later in evolution and are thus taxon specific.
Aspects and abstracta
(2014)
Philosophers of perception and psychologists first studied 'multistable' or 'reversible' figures, 'Kippbilder', in the nineteenth century. The earliest description of the phenomenon of a 'sudden and involuntary change in the apparent position' of a represented object occurred in a letter written by Louis Albert Necker in Geneva to Sir David Brewster on 24 May 1832 and published six months later in the "Philosophical Magazine". The picture in question would become known as the Necker cube.
Ask the Stars
(2014)
In Ask the Stars, Titus Mutuiria remembers how at the age of ten he seemed to lead a normal life of sibling rivalry with Njorua, Antonnina and Sarah until some events from their past threaten to rewrite his life. Njorua and Antonnina learn that Mutumia Mutana, the mother they have always known is not their biological mother while Titus learns that Muthuri Mukaru is not the biological father of himself and Sarah. What follows is a gripping story of jealousy, fear, loyalty, friendship and love as the siblings grow and confront an array of challenges as the family forge solutions to the troubles that beset them. The story of young love between Titus and Joan and the actions of a lurking rapist in the village bring added dimensions to the story, showing that things are not always what they seem. Eventually, the teenagers and their parents must nurture a love that strengthens their family and that also brings sanity to the village.
This chapter analyzes the risk and return characteristics of investments in artists from the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region over the sample period 2000 to 2012. With hedonic regression modeling we create an annual index that is based on 3,544 paintings created by 663 MENA artists. Our empirical results prove that investing in such a hypothetical index provides strong financial returns. While the results show an exponential growth in sales since 2006, the geometric annual return of the MENA art index is a stable13.9 percent over the whole period. We conclude that investing in MENA paintings would have been profitable but also note that we examined the performance of an emerging art market that has only seen an upward trend without any correction, yet.
Background: Acute leukemia in early age (EAL) is characterized by acquired genetic alterations such as MLL rearrangements (MLL-r). The aim of this case-controlled study was to investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of IKZF1, ARID5B, and CEBPE could be related to the onset of EAL cases (<24 months-old at diagnosis).
Methods: The SNPs (IKZF1 rs11978267, ARID5B rs10821936 and rs10994982, CEBPE rs2239633) were genotyped in 265 cases [169 acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 96 acute myeloid leukaemia (AML)] and 505 controls by Taqman allelic discrimination assay. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between SNPs of cases and controls, adjusted on skin color and/or age. The risk was determined by calculating odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI).
Results: Children with the IKZF1 SNP had an increased risk of developing MLL-germline ALL in white children. The heterozygous/mutant genotype in ARID5B rs10994982 significantly increased the risk for MLL-germline leukemia in white and non-white children (OR 2.60, 95% CI: 1.09-6.18 and OR 3.55, 95% CI: 1.57-8.68, respectively). The heterozygous genotype in ARID5B rs10821936 increased the risk for MLL-r leukemia in both white and non-white (OR 2.06, 95% CI: 1.12-3.79 and OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.09-5.10, respectively). Furthermore, ARID5B rs10821936 conferred increased risk for MLL-MLLT3 positive cases (OR 7.10, 95% CI:1.54-32.68). Our data do not show evidence that CEBPE rs2239633 confers increased genetic susceptibility to EAL.
Conclusions: IKZF1 and CEBPE variants seem to play a minor role in genetic susceptibility to EAL, while ARID5B rs10821936 increased the risk of MLL-MLLT3. This result shows that genetic susceptibility could be associated with the differences regarding MLL breakpoints and partner genes.
Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe
(2014)
Marvin Goodfriend’s (2014) insightful, informative and provocative work explains concisely and convincingly why the Fed needs rules and boundaries. This paper reviews the broader institutional design problem regarding the effectiveness of the central bank in practice and confirms the need for rules and boundaries. The framework proposed for improving the Fed incorporates key elements that have already been adopted in the European Union. The case of ELA provision by the ECB and the Central Bank of Cyprus to Marfin-Laiki Bank during the crisis, however, suggests that the existence of rules and boundaries may not be enough to limit harmful discretion. During a crisis, novel interpretations of the legal authority of the central bank may be introduced to create a grey area that might be exploited to justify harmful discretionary decisions even in the presence of rules and boundaries. This raises the question how to ensure that rules and boundaries are respected in practice
Rhaptothyreus is arguably the most enigmatic nematode taxon due to a combination of unusual morphological features (e.g., large feather-like amphids, vestigial mouth, trophosome, single spicule), unclear phylogenetic relationships (possible affinities with the Enoplida, Mermithida and Benthimermithida) and a distribution restricted to the deep sea. Here I provide the first record of the genus in the Western Pacific Ocean and describe new morphological features of a moulting juvenile. This specimen is characterised by features that differ markedly from those of the adults, the most prominent being the absence of cephalic sensillae and amphids and the presence of a stylet-like structure in the buccal cavity. Similar contrasts in morphology are found between adults and juveniles of the order Benthimermithida, which is characterised by free-living adults and parasitic juveniles.
Other morphological (large body size, presence of trophosome) and distributional characteristics (predominantly deep-sea distribution, juveniles rare / absent in sediments) are also common to both groups. Published records show that Rhaptothyreus is commonly found in oligotrophic environments (e.g., abyssal plain) where organisms bearing symbiotic bacteria are not typically found, which makes the presence of endosymbiotic bacteria inside the trophosome unlikely. These observations are consistent with the existence of a parasitic juvenile life stage in Rhaptothyreus.
Many studies about endocrine pollution in the aquatic environment reveal changes in the reproduction system of biota. We analysed endocrine activities in two rivers in Southern Germany using three approaches: (1) chemical analyses, (2) in vitro bioassays, and (3) in vivo investigations in fish and snails. Chemical analyses were based on gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. For in vitro analyses of endocrine potentials in water, sediment, and waste water samples, we used the E-screen assay (human breast cancer cells MCF-7) and reporter gene assays (human cell line HeLa-9903 and MDA-kb2). In addition, we performed reproduction tests with the freshwater mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum to analyse water and sediment samples. We exposed juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta f. fario) to water downstream of a wastewater outfall (Schussen River) or to water from a reference site (Argen River) to investigate the vitellogenin production. Furthermore, two feral fish species, chub (Leuciscus cephalus) and spirlin (Alburnoides bipunctatus), were caught in both rivers to determine their gonadal maturity and the gonadosomatic index. Chemical analyses provided only little information about endocrine active substances, whereas the in vitro assays revealed endocrine potentials in most of the samples. In addition to endocrine potentials, we also observed toxic potentials (E-screen/reproduction test) in waste water samples, which could interfere with and camouflage endocrine effects. The results of our in vivo tests were mostly in line with the results of the in vitro assays and revealed a consistent reproduction-disrupting (reproduction tests) and an occasional endocrine action (vitellogenin levels) in both investigated rivers, with more pronounced effects for the Schussen river (e.g. a lower gonadosomatic index). We were able to show that biological in vitro assays for endocrine potentials in natural stream water reasonably reflect reproduction and endocrine disruption observed in snails and field-exposed fish, respectively.
Background: Cichlid fishes show considerable diversity in swim bladder morphology. In members of the subfamily Etroplinae, the connection between anterior swim bladder extensions and the inner ears enhances sound transmission and translates into an improved hearing ability. We tested the hypothesis that those swim bladder modifications coincide with differences in inner ear morphology and thus compared Steatocranus tinanti (vestigial swim bladder), Hemichromis guttatus (large swim bladder without extensions), and Etroplus maculatus (intimate connection between swim bladder and inner ears).
Methodology and results: We applied immunostaining together with confocal imaging and scanning electron microscopy for the investigation of sensory epithelia, and high-resolution, contrast-enhanced microCT imaging for characterizing inner ears in 3D, and evaluated otolith dimensions. Compared to S. tinanti and H. guttatus, inner ears of E. maculatus showed an enlargement of all three maculae, and a particularly large lacinia of the macula utriculi. While our analysis of orientation patterns of ciliary bundles on the three macula types using artificially flattened maculae uncovered rather similar orientation patterns of ciliary bundles, interspecific differences became apparent when illustrating the orientation patterns on the 3D models of the maculae: differences in the shape and curvature of the lacinia of the macula utriculi, and the anterior arm of the macula lagenae resulted in an altered arrangement of ciliary bundles.
Conclusions: Our results imply that improved audition in E. maculatus is associated not only with swim bladder modifications but also with altered inner ear morphology. However, not all modifications in E. maculatus could be connected to enhanced auditory abilities, and so a potential improvement of the vestibular sense, among others, also needs to be considered. Our study highlights the value of analyzing orientation patterns of ciliary bundles in their intact 3D context in studies of inner ear morphology and physiology.
The World Wide Web is the largest information repository available today. However, this information is very volatile and Web archiving is essential to preserve it for the future. Existing approaches to Web archiving are based on simple definitions of the scope of Web pages to crawl and are limited to basic interactions with Web servers. The aim of the ARCOMEM project is to overcome these limitations and to provide flexible, adaptive and intelligent content acquisition, relying on social media to create topical Web archives. In this article, we focus on ARCOMEM’s crawling architecture. We introduce the overall architecture and we describe its modules, such as the online analysis module, which computes a priority for the Web pages to be crawled, and the Application-Aware Helper which takes into account the type of Web sites and applications to extract structure from crawled content. We also describe a large-scale distributed crawler that has been developed, as well as the modifications we have implemented to adapt Heritrix, an open source crawler, to the needs of the project. Our experimental results from real crawls show that ARCOMEM’s crawling architecture is effective in acquiring focused information about a topic and leveraging the information from social media.
Motivated by the question whether sound and expressive applicative similarities for program calculi with should-convergence exist, this paper investigates expressive applicative similarities for the untyped call-by-value lambda-calculus extended with McCarthy's ambiguous choice operator amb. Soundness of the applicative similarities w.r.t. contextual equivalence based on may-and should-convergence is proved by adapting Howe's method to should-convergence. As usual for nondeterministic calculi, similarity is not complete w.r.t. contextual equivalence which requires a rather complex counter example as a witness. Also the call-by-value lambda-calculus with the weaker nondeterministic construct erratic choice is analyzed and sound applicative similarities are provided. This justifies the expectation that also for more expressive and call-by-need higher-order calculi there are sound and powerful similarities for should-convergence.
We present the application of Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOF MS) for the analysis of halocarbons in the atmosphere, after cryogenic sample preconcentration and gas chromatographic separation. For the described field of application, the Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QP MS) is the state-of-the-art detector. This work aims at comparing two commercially available instruments, a QP MS and a TOF MS with respect to mass resolution, mass accuracy, sensitivity, measurement precision and detector linearity. Both mass spectrometers are operated on the same gas chromatographic system by splitting the column effluent to both detectors. The QP MS had to be operated in optimised Single Ion Monitoring (SIM) mode to achieve a sensitivity which could compete with the TOF MS. The TOF MS provided full mass range information in any acquired mass spectrum without losing sensitivity. Whilst the QP MS showed the performance already achieved in earlier tests, the sensitivity of the TOF MS was on average higher than that of the QP MS in the "operational" SIM mode by a factor of up to 3 reaching detection limits of less than 0.2 pg. Measurement precision determined for the whole analytical system was up to 0.2% depending on substance and sampled volume. The TOF MS instrument used for this study displayed significant non-linearities of up to 10% for two third of all analysed substances.
Alternative polyadenylation (APA) is a widespread mechanism that contributes to the sophisticated dynamics of gene regulation. Approximately 50% of all protein-coding human genes harbor multiple polyadenylation (PA) sites; their selective and combinatorial use gives rise to transcript variants with differing length of their 3' untranslated region (3'UTR). Shortened variants escape UTR-mediated regulation by microRNAs (miRNAs), especially in cancer, where global 3'UTR shortening accelerates disease progression, dedifferentiation and proliferation. Here we present APADB, a database of vertebrate PA sites determined by 3' end sequencing, using massive analysis of complementary DNA ends. APADB provides (A)PA sites for coding and non-coding transcripts of human, mouse and chicken genes. For human and mouse, several tissue types, including different cancer specimens, are available. APADB records the loss of predicted miRNA binding sites and visualizes next-generation sequencing reads that support each PA site in a genome browser. The database tables can either be browsed according to organism and tissue or alternatively searched for a gene of interest. APADB is the largest database of APA in human, chicken and mouse. The stored information provides experimental evidence for thousands of PA sites and APA events. APADB combines 3' end sequencing data with prediction algorithms of miRNA binding sites, allowing to further improve prediction algorithms. Current databases lack correct information about 3'UTR lengths, especially for chicken, and APADB provides necessary information to close this gap. Database URL: http://tools.genxpro.net/apadb/
Antigenic and 3D structural characterization of soluble X4 and hybrid X4-R5 HIV-1 Env trimers
(2014)
Background: HIV-1 is decorated with trimeric glycoprotein spikes that enable infection by engaging CD4 and a chemokine coreceptor, either CCR5 or CXCR4. The variable loop 3 (V3) of the HIV-1 envelope protein (Env) is the main determinant for coreceptor usage. The predominant CCR5 using (R5) HIV-1 Env has been intensively studied in function and structure, whereas the trimeric architecture of the less frequent, but more cytopathic CXCR4 using (X4) HIV-1 Env is largely unknown, as are the consequences of sequence changes in and near V3 on antigenicity and trimeric Env structure.
Results: Soluble trimeric gp140 Env constructs were used as immunogenic mimics of the native spikes to analyze their antigenic properties in the context of their overall 3D structure. We generated soluble, uncleaved, gp140 trimers from a prototypic T-cell line-adapted (TCLA) X4 HIV-1 strain (NL4-3) and a hybrid (NL4-3/ADA), in which the V3 spanning region was substituted with that from the primary R5 isolate ADA. Compared to an ADA (R5) gp140, the NL4-3 (X4) construct revealed an overall higher antibody accessibility, which was most pronounced for the CD4 binding site (CD4bs), but also observed for mAbs against CD4 induced (CD4i) epitopes and gp41 mAbs. V3 mAbs showed significant binding differences to the three constructs, which were refined by SPR analysis. Of interest, the NL4-3/ADA construct with the hybrid NL4-3/ADA CD4bs showed impaired CD4 and CD4bs mAb reactivity despite the presence of the essential elements of the CD4bs epitope. We obtained 3D reconstructions of the NL4-3 and the NL4-3/ADA gp140 trimers via electron microscopy and single particle analysis, which indicates that both constructs inherit a propeller-like architecture. The first 3D reconstruction of an Env construct from an X4 TCLA HIV-1 strain reveals an open conformation, in contrast to recently published more closed structures from R5 Env. Exchanging the X4 V3 spanning region for that of R5 ADA did not alter the open Env architecture as deduced from its very similar 3D reconstruction.
Conclusions: 3D EM analysis showed an apparent open trimer configuration of X4 NL4-3 gp140 that is not modified by exchanging the V3 spanning region for R5 ADA.
Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) with coumarins and new anticoagulants are highly effective in preventing thromboembolic complications. However, some studies indicate that over- and under-treatment with anticoagulants are fairly common. The aim of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of treatment in patients with a long-term indication for OAC, and to describe the corresponding characteristics of such patients on the basis of screening results from the cluster randomized PICANT trial.
Methods: Randomly selected family practices in the federal state of Hesse, Germany, were visited by study team members. Eligible patients were screened using an anonymous patient list that was generated by the general practitioners? software according to predefined instructions. A documentation sheet was filled in for all screened patients. Eligible patients were classified into 3 categories (1: patients with a long-term indication for OAC and taking anticoagulants, 2: patients with a long-term indication for OAC but not taking anticoagulants, 3: patients without a long-term indication for OAC but taking an anticoagulant on a permanent basis). IBM SPSS Statistics 20 was used for descriptive statistical analysis.
Results: We screened 2,036 randomly selected, potentially eligible patients from 52 family practices. 275 patients could not be assigned to one of the 3 categories and were therefore not considered for analysis. The final study sample comprised 1,761 screened patients, 1,641 of whom belonged to category 1, 78 to category 2, and 42 to category 3. INR values were available for 1,504 patients of whom 1,013 presented INR values within their therapeutic ranges. The majority of screened patients had very good compliance, as assessed by the general practitioner. New antithrombotic drugs were prescribed in 6.1% of cases.
Conclusions: The screening results showed that a high proportion of patients were receiving appropriate anticoagulation therapy. The numbers of patients with a long-term indication for OAC therapy that were not receiving oral anticoagulants, and without a long-term indication that were receiving OAC, were considerably lower than expected. Most patients take coumarins, and the quality of OAC control is reasonably high.
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is an important cause of vision loss around the world, being the leading cause in the population between 20 and 60 years old. Among patients with DR, diabetic macular edema (DME) is the most frequent cause of vision impairment and represents a significant public health issue. Macular photocoagulation has been the standard treatment for this condition reducing the risk of moderate visual loss by approximately 50%. The role of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in DR and DME pathogenesis has been demonstrated in recent studies. This review addresses and summarizes data from the clinical trials that investigated anti-VEGF for the management of DME and evaluates their impact on clinical practice. The literature searches were conducted between August and October 2013 in PubMed and Cochrane Library with no date restrictions and went through the most relevant studies on pegaptanib, ranibizumab, bevacizumab, and aflibercept for the management of DME. The efficacy and safety of intravitreal anti-VEGF as therapy for DME have recently been proved by various clinical trials providing significantly positive visual and anatomical results. Regarding clinical practice, those outcomes have placed intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF as an option that must be considered for the treatment of DME.