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We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects. JEL Klassifikation: F3, F4, G1, C5
Inhalt: Vorbemerkung Multikulturalismus und der amerikanische consensus Hans-Jürgen Puhle Probleme der Institutionalisierung des Multikulturalismus Diskussionsbeitrag von Kurt L. Shell Anmerkungen zum Verhältnis von »Multiculturalism« und »Liberalism« in den USA Diskussionsbeitrag von Söhnke Schreyer Probleme der Institutionalisierung von Multikulturalismus im Politikfeld der Erziehung Diskussionsbeitrag von Ulrike Fischer Multikulturalismus im Bildungsbereich: Afrozentrismus Diskussionsbeitrag von Rüdiger Wersich Die in der vorliegenden Ausgabe der ZENAF Arbeits- und Forschungsberichte zusammengestellten Beiträge von Hans-Jürgen Puhle, Kurt L. Shell, Söhnke Schreyer, Ulrike Fischer und Rüdiger Wersich dokumentieren Aspekte einer in den zurückliegenden Semestern am ZENAF geführten Diskussion zur Problematik des Multikulturalismus in den USA. Die Diskussion begann anlässlich der Tagung der Sektion Politikwissenschaft der DGfA ("Die USA als multikulturelle Gesellschaft") in Frankfurt im November 1991. Im Sommersemester 1993 und im Wintersemester 1993/94 folgten zwei Diskussionsrunden im Rahmen des Jour Fixe des ZENAF unter dem Leitthema "Probleme der Institutionalisierung des Multikulturalismusll• Eine gemeinsame Diskussionsgrundlage bildete zunächst der in dieser ZAF-Ausgabe abgedruckte Aufsatz von Hans-Jürgen Puhle: "Multikulturalismus in den USA", der bereits (in englischer Fassung) als Vortrag auf der Jahrestagung der DGfA ("Multikulturalismus: Politische, soziale und kulturelle Konsequenzen am Beispiel der USA") in Berlin im Juni 1992 gehalten wurde. Die Publikation des Aufsatzes in einem von Berndt Ostendorf herausgegebenen Sammelband (''Multikulturelle Gesellschaft: Modell Amerika?", München) ist für 1994 vorgesehen. Die übrigen Beiträge dieser ZAF-Ausgabe sind überarbeitete Versionen von Kurz-Statements, die von den Autoren für die beiden Diskussions-Veranstaltungen am ZENAF vorbereitet wurden. Die angeregte und intensive Diskussion, an der sich eine erfreulich große Zahl von Teilnehmern aus verschiedenen Fachbereichen der Kultur- und Sozialwissenschaften beteiligten, kann diese Zusammenstellung allerdings nicht in ihrer vollen Breite repräsentieren. Für das Sommersemester 1994 ist eine Fortsetzung der Veranstaltungen am ZENAF geplant, die weitere Fragen der Problematik der Institutionalisierung des Multikulturalismus aufgreifen soll.
What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations - impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds.
Many older US households have done little or no planning for retirement, and there is a substantial population that seems to undersave for retirement. Of particular concern is the relative position of older women, who are more vulnerable to old-age poverty due to their longer longevity. This paper uses data from a special module we devised on planning and financial literacy in the 2004 Health and Retirement Study. It shows that women display much lower levels of financial literacy than the older population as a whole. In addition, women who are less financially literate are also less likely to plan for retirement and be successful planners. These findings have important implications for policy and for programs aimed at fostering financial security at older ages.
During the last decades households in the U.S. have experienced that residential house prices move in a persistent manner, i.e. that returns are positively serially correlated. Since an owner-occupied home is usually the largest investment of a household it is important to understand how households act when they base their consumption and investment decisions on this experience. We show in a setting with housing market cycles and households who can decide whether they rent or own the home, that - besides the consumption and the precautionary savings motive - serial correlation in house prices generates a new speculative motive for homeownership. In particular, we show how good and bad housing market cycles affect homeownership rates, leverage, stock investments and consumption and can explain empirically observed household behavior during housing market boom and bust periods. Keywords: Asset Allocation , Portfolio Choice , Housing Market Cycles , Real Estate JEL Classification: G11, D91
This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. Klassifizierung: E17, E25, D33, C68
Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components. Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specifications are discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. An empirical application to NASDAQ-index data indicates the appropriateness of the model class and illustrates that the approach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditional variance process, in which the components' volatility dynamics have a clearly distinct behavior that is, for example, compatible with the well-known leverage effect. Klassifikation: C22, C51, G10
This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Using survey-based sentiment indicators from Germany and the US we confirm previous findings of predictability at intermediate time horizons. The main contribution of our paper is that we also analyze the immediate price reaction to the publication of sentiment indicators. We find that the sign of the immediate price reaction is the same as that of the predictability at intermediate time horizons. This is consistent with sentiment being related to mispricing but is inconsistent with the alternative explanation that sentiment indicators provide information about future expected returns. JEL Classification: G12, G14 Keywords: Investor Sentiment , Event Study , Return Predictability
This paper examines to what extent the build-up of "global imbalances" since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents’ perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates based on filtering U.S. productivity data comove strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. By simulating the model in which agents filter data on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with household preferences that control the wealth effect on labor supply, we can generate output movements in line with the data. JEL Classification: E13, E32, D83, O40