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Asset-backed securitization (ABS) has become a viable and increasingly attractive risk management and refinancing method either as a standalone form of structured finance or as securitized debt in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). However, the absence of industry standardization has prevented rising investment demand from translating into market liquidity comparable to traditional fixed income instruments, in all but a few selected market segments. Particularly low financial transparency and complex security designs inhibits profound analysis of secondary market pricing and how it relates to established forms of external finance. This paper represents the first attempt to measure the intertemporal, bivariate causal relationship between matched price series of equity and ABS issued by the same entity. In a two-dimensional linear system of simultaneous equations we investigate the short-term dynamics and long-term consistency of daily secondary market data from the U.K. Sterling ABS/MBS market and exchange traded shares between 1998 and 2004 with and without the presence of cointegration. Our causality framework delivers compelling empirical support for a strong co-movement between matched price series of ABS-equity pairs, where ABS markets seem to contribute more to price discovery over the long run. Controlling for cointegration, risk-free interest and average market risk of corporate debt hardly alters our results. However, once we qualify the magnitude and direction of price discovery on various security characteristics, such as the ABS asset class, we find that ABS-equity pairs with large-scale CMBS/RMBS and credit card/student loan ABS reveal stronger lead-lag relationships and joint price dynamics than whole business ABS. JEL Classifications: G10, G12, G24
Credit card debt puzzles
(2005)
Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper' framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework can actually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers. Klassifikation: E210, G110
Market discipline for financial institutions can be imposed not only from the liability side, as has often been stressed in the literature on the use of subordinated debt, but also from the asset side. This will be particularly true if good lending opportunities are in short supply, so that banks have to compete for projects. In such a setting, borrowers may demand that banks commit to monitoring by requiring that they use some of their own capital in lending, thus creating an asset market-based incentive for banks to hold capital. Borrowers can also provide banks with incentives to monitor by allowing them to reap some of the benefits from the loans, which accrue only if the loans are in fact paid o.. Since borrowers do not fully internalize the cost of raising capital to the banks, the level of capital demanded by market participants may be above the one chosen by a regulator, even when capital is a relatively costly source of funds. This implies that capital requirements may not be binding, as recent evidence seems to indicate. JEL Classification: G21, G38
Some have argued that recent increases in credit risk transfer are desirable because they improve the diversification of risk. Others have suggested that they may be undesirable if they increase the risk of financial crises. Using a model with banking and insurance sectors, we show that credit risk transfer can be beneficial when banks face uniform demand for liquidity. However, when they face idiosyncratic liquidity risk and hedge this risk in an interbank market, credit risk transfer can be detrimental to welfare. It can lead to contagion between the two sectors and increase the risk of crises. Klassifikation: G21, G22
We derive the effects of credit risk transfer (CRT) markets on real sector productivity and on the volume of financial intermediation in a model where banks choose their optimal degree of CRT and monitoring. We find that CRT increases productivity in the up-market real sector but decreases it in the low-end segment. If optimal, CRT unambiguously fosters financial deepening, i.e., it reduces credit-rationing in the economy. These effects rely upon the ability of banks to commit to the optimal CRT at the funding stage. The optimal degree of CRT depends on the combination of moral hazard, general riskiness, and the cost of monitoring in non-monotonic ways.
Static analysis of different non-strict functional programming languages makes use of set constants like Top, Inf, and Bot denoting all expressions, all lists without a last Nil as tail, and all non-terminating programs, respectively. We use a set language that permits union, constructors and recursive definition of set constants with a greatest fixpoint semantics. This paper proves decidability, in particular EXPTIMEcompleteness, of subset relationship of co-inductively defined sets by using algorithms and results from tree automata. This shows decidability of the test for set inclusion, which is required by certain strictness analysis algorithms in lazy functional programming languages.
FIFO is the most prominent queueing strategy due to its simplicity and the fact that it only works with local information. Its analysis within the adversarial queueing theory however has shown, that there are networks that are not stable under the FIFO protocol, even at arbitrarily low rate. On the other hand there are networks that are universally stable, i.e., they are stable under every greedy protocol at any rate r < 1. The question as to which networks are stable under the FIFO protocol arises naturally. We offer the first polynomial time algorithm for deciding FIFO stability and simple-path FIFO stability of a directed network, answering an open question posed in [1, 4]. It turns out, that there are networks, that are FIFO stable but not universally stable, hence FIFO is not a worst case protocol in this sense. Our characterization of FIFO stability is constructive and disproves an open characterization in [4].
Default risk sharing between banks and markets : the contribution of collateralized debt obligations
(2005)
This paper contributes to the economics of financial institutions risk management by exploring how loan securitization a.ects their default risk, their systematic risk, and their stock prices. In a typical CDO transaction a bank retains through a first loss piece a very high proportion of the expected default losses, and transfers only the extreme losses to other market participants. The size of the first loss piece is largely driven by the average default probability of the securitized assets. If the bank sells loans in a true sale transaction, it may use the proceeds to to expand its loan business, thereby incurring more systematic risk. We find an increase of the banks' betas, but no significant stock price e.ect around the announcement of a CDO issue. Our results suggest a role for supervisory requirements in stabilizing the financial system, related to transparency of tranche allocation, and to regulatory treatment of senior tranches. JEL Klassifikation: D82, G21, D74 .
Academic contributions on the demutualization of stock exchanges so far have been predominantly devoted to social welfare issues, whereas there is scarce empirical literature referring to the impact of a governance change on the exchange itself. While there is consensus that the case for demutualization is predominantly driven by the need to improve the exchange's competitiveness in a changing business environment, it remains unclear how different governance regimes actually affect stock exchange performance. Some authors propose that a public listing is the best suited governance arrangement to improve an exchange's competitiveness. By employing a panel data set of 28 stock exchanges for the years 1999-2003 we seek to shed light on this topic by comparing the efficiency and productivity of exchanges with differing governance arrangements. For this purpose we calculate in a first step individual efficiency and productivity values via DEA. In a second step we regress the derived values against variables that - amongst others - map the institutional arrangement of the exchanges in order to determine efficiency and productivity differences between (1) mutuals (2) demutualized but customer-owned exchanges and (3) publicly listed and thus at least partly outsider-owned exchanges. We find evidence that demutualized exchanges exhibit higher technical efficiency than mutuals. However, they perform relatively poor as far as productivity growth is concerned. Furthermore, we find no evidence that publicly listed exchanges possess higher efficiency and productivity values than demutualized exchanges with a customer-dominated structure. We conclude that the merits of outside ownership lie possibly in other areas such as solving conflicts of interest between too heterogeneous members.
This paper makes an attempt to present the economics of credit securitisation in a non-technical way, starting from the description and the analysis of a typical securitisation transaction. The paper sketches a theoretical explanation for why tranching, or nonproportional risk sharing, which is at the heart of securitisation transactions, may allow commercial banks to maximize their shareholder value. However, the analysis makes also clear that the conditions under which credit securitisation enhances welfare, are fairly restrictive, and require not only an active role of the banking supervisory authorities, but also a price tag on the implicit insurance currently provided by the lender of last resort.
This paper makes an attempt to present the economics of credit securitization in a non-technical way, starting from the description and the analysis of a typical securitization transaction. The paper sketches a theoretical explanation for why tranching, or nonproportional risk sharing, which is at the heart of securitization transactions, may allow commercial banks to maximize their shareholder value. However, the analysis makes also clear that the conditions under which credit securitization enhances welfare, are fairly restrictive, and require not only an active role of the banking supervisiory authorities, but also a price tag on the implicit insurance currently provided by the lender of last resort. Klassifikation: D82, G21, D74. February 16, 2005.
Die Altersvorsorge in Russland - Theoretische Analyse, aktuelle Rahmenbedingungen und ihre Umsetzung
(2005)
Das russische Rentenversicherungssystem befindet sich in der Krise. Wie in einer Vielzahl entwickelter Staaten auch, erodiert die Basis des umlagefinanzierten Rentensystems („Generationenvertrag“) auf Grund des demografischen Wandels. Dies wird verstärkt durch die mangelnde Wirtschaftskraft Russlands. Ausgangspunkt der Diskussion des russischen Rentenmodells in diesem Artikel ist die Darstellung der theoretischen Grundannahmen, die Analyse der aktuellen und zukünftigen Rahmenbedingungen sowie eine Prognose der natürlichen und räumlichen Bevölkerungsbewegung in Russland. Hierauf folgt die Präsentation der gegenwärtigen Situation einschließlich der bereits erfolgten ersten Schritte zu einer umfassenden Neuordnung des Rentenversicherungssystems sowie die Darstellung von „hot steps“ auf dem Weg zu einer nachhaltigen Alterssicherung.
1. Das Gemeinschaftsrecht garantiert durch Art. 108 EGV umfassend die Weisungsfreiheit der Europäischen Zentralbank und der nationalen Zentralbanken als Institution. Diese Garantie erfasst auch die natürlichen Personen, die Mitglieder der Entscheidungsgremien sind. 2. Hinzu treten weiter Regelungen des Gemeinschaftsvertrages und der Satzung von ESZB und EZB, welche diese Garantie zu einer allgemeinen Unabhängigkeitsgarantie ausbauen und verstärken. 3. Garantiert ist vor allem auch die persönlicher Unabhängigkeit der Mitglieder in den Entscheidungsgremien. 4. Von wenigen Ausnahmen abgesehen, sind diese Regelungen für das sekundäre Gemeinschaftsrecht unantastbar. Als Teil des primären Gemeinschaftsrechts können sie prinzipiell nur durch Vertragsänderung, also einstimmig verändert werden. 5. Diese europarechtlichen Garantien werden über Art. 88 Satz 2 GG für die Bundesbank als integrales Bestandteil des ESZB in das deutsche Verfassungsrecht transponiert. Daraus ergibt sich eine „gemeinschaftsrechtlich vermittelte verfassungsrechtliche Unabhängigkeitsgarantie“ für die Bundesbank. 6. Die Regelung ist mit dem Demokratieprinzip vereinbar. 7. Änderungen der umfassenden Garantie können die verfassungsrechtlichen Voraussetzungen für die Übertragung der währungs- und notenbankpolitischen Befugnisse auf das ESZB entfallen lassen. 8. Der Entwurf einer Verfassung für Europa enthält keine verfassungsrechtlich relevanten Relativierungen der Unabhängigkeitsgarantie. 9. Das Ziel der Preisstabilität hat den ihm gebührenden Rang behalten. Bei genauer Analyse zeigt sich auch, dass sein besonderer Rang für die Tätigkeit des ESZB nicht beeinträchtigt ist. 10. Ein Vergleich der verschiedenen sprachlichen Fassungen des Verfassungsvertrages zeigt auch, dass – entgegen dem deutschen Text – die EZB nicht als – möglicherweise weniger unabhängiges - Organ der EU, sondern als sonstige Einrichtung eingestuft worden ist.
Die rechtliche Beurteilung der Verwendung des Gewinns von Zentralbanken bewegt sich im Überschneidungsbereich von: 1) Währungsrecht 2) Finanzverfassungsrecht und 3) Finanzpolitik. Rechtliche Bedenken ergeben sich im Wesentlichen aus den verfassungsrechtlichen Vorgaben für die Staatsfinanzierung sowie aus der Garantie der Unabhängigkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Bundesbank. Maßgebende Rechtsquellen sind sowohl das Recht der Europäischen Union als auch das deutsche Finanzverfassungsrecht, angereichert um das einfache Haushaltsrecht des Bundes.
Ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in New Keynesian models. A stochastic forward-looking model with lower bound, calibrated to the U.S. economy, suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy. The fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound. The welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the Phillips curve. These results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment. JEL Klassifikation: E31, E52
We evaluate the importance of the precautionary saving motive by relying on a direct question about precautionary wealth from the 1995 and 1998 waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances. In this survey, a new question has been designed to elicit the amount of desired precautionary wealth. This allows us to assess the amount of precautionary accumulation and to overcome many of the problems of previous works on this topic. We find that a precautionary saving motive exists and affects virtually every type of household. However, precautionary savings account for only 8 percent of total wealth holdings. Even though this motive does not give rise to large amounts of wealth, particularly for young and middle-age households, it is particularly important for two groups: older households and business owners. Overall, we provide strong evidence that we need to take the precautionary saving motive into account when modeling saving behavior. Klassifizierung: D91, E21, C21
We find that on average consumers chose the contract that ex post minimized their net costs. A substantial fraction of consumers (about 40%) still chose the ex post sub-optimal contract, with some incurring hundreds of dollars of avoidable interest costs. Nonetheless, the probability of choosing the sub-optimal contract declines with the dollar magnitude of the potential error, and consumers with larger errors were more likely to subsequently switch to the optimal contract. Thus most of the errors appear not to have been very costly, with the exception that a small minority of consumers persists in holding substantially sub-optimal contracts without switching. Klassifikation: G11, G21, E21, E51
Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey we first document that the recent increase in income inequality in the US has not been accompanied by a corresponding rise in consumption inequality. Much of this divergence is due to different trends in within-group inequality, which has increased significantly for income but little for consumption. We then develop a simple framework that allows us to analytically characterize how within-group income inequality affects consumption inequality in a world in which agents can trade a full set of contingent consumption claims, subject to endogenous constraints emanating from the limited enforcement of intertemporal contracts (as in Kehoe and Levine, 1993). Finally, we quantitatively evaluate, in the context of a calibrated general equilibrium production economy, whether this set-up, or alternatively a standard incomplete markets model (as in Ayiagari 1994), can account for the documented stylized consumption inequality facts from the US data. JEL Klassifikation: E21, D91, D63, D31, G22
1 Institutionelle Organisation und politischer Aufbau der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 2 Die Sozio-ökonomische Situation 2.1 Einkommensverteilung und Armut 2.1.1 Generelle Einkommensentwicklung der 90er Jahre 2.1.2 Ungleichheit der Einkommen 2.1.3 Armut und Armutsquoten 2.1.4 Verteilung der Armutsquoten auf bestimmte Personengruppen 2.1.5 Die Verweildauer von in Armut lebenden Menschen 2.2 Erwerbsarbeit und Erwerbslosigkeit 2.2.1 Strukturen der Erwerbsarbeit 2.2.2 Strukturen der Arbeitslosigkeit 2.3 Bildung und Ausbildung 2.4 Wohnsituation 2.5 Gesundheit und Armut 3 Demographische Situation 4 Strategien zur Bekämpfung von sozialer Ausgrenzung und Armut 4.1 Charakterisierung des deutschen Sozialstaats 4.2 Sozialpolitische Strategien zur Armutsbekämpfung 4.2.1 Der Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht der Bundesregierung 4.2.2 Der Nationale Aktionsplan zur Bekämpfung von sozialer Ausgrenzung und Armut 4.2.3 Forum Teilhabe und soziale Integration (FORTEIL) 4.2.4 Die Agenda 2010 als Teilumsetzung des Armutsberichtes und von NAP-incl
Wider participation in stockholding is often presumed to reduce wealth inequality. We measure and decompose changes in US wealth inequality between 1989 and 2001, a period of considerable spread of equity culture. Inequality in equity wealth is found to be important for net wealth inequality, despite equity's limited share. Our findings show that reduced wealth inequality is not a necessary outcome of the spread of equity culture. We estimate contributions of stockholder characteristics to levels and inequality in equity holdings, and we distinguish changes in configuration of the stockholder pool from changes in the influence of given characteristics. Our estimates imply that both the 1989 and the 2001 stockholder pools would have produced higher equity holdings in 1998 than were actually observed for 1998 stockholders. This arises from differences both in optimal holdings and in financial attitudes and practices, suggesting a dilution effect of the boom followed by a cleansing effect of the downturn. Cumulative gains and losses in stockholding are shown to be significantly influenced by length of household investment horizon and portfolio breadth but, controlling for those, use of professional advice is either insignificant or counterproductive. JEL Classification: E21, G11
EU financial integration : is there a 'Core Europe'? ; evidence from a cluster-based approach
(2005)
Numerous recent studies, e.g. EU Commission (2004a), Baele et al. (2004), Adam et al.(2002), and the research pooled in ECB-CFS (2005), Gaspar, Hartmann, and Sleijpen(2003), have documented progress in EU financial integration from a micro-level view.This paper contributes to this research by identifying groups of financially integratedcountries from a holistic, macro-level view. It calculates cross-sectional dispersions, andinnovates by applying an inter-temporal cluster analysis to eight euro area countries for the period 1995-2002. The indicators employed represent the money, government bond and credit markets. Our results show that euro countries were divided into two stable groups of financially more closely integrated countries in the pre-EMU period. Back then, geographic proximity and country size might have played a role. This situation has changed remarkably with the euro's introduction. EMU has led to a shake-up both in the number and composition of groups. The evidence puts a question mark behin d using Germany as a benchmark in the post-EMU period. The ¯ndings suggest as well that ¯nancial integration takes place in waves. Stable periods and periods of intense transition alternate. Based on the notion of 'maximum similarity', the results suggest that there exist 'maximum similarity barriers'. It takes extraordinary events, such as EMU, to push the degree of ¯nancial integration beyond these barriers. The research encourages policymakers to move forward courageously in the post-FSAP era, and provides comfort that the substantial di®erences between the current and potentially new euro states can be overcome. The analysis could be extended to the new EU member countries, to the global level, and to additional indicators.
Innovations are a key factor to ensure the competitiveness of establishments as well as to enhance the growth and wealth of nations. But more than any other economic activity, decisions about innovations are plagued by failures of the market mechanism. As a response, public instruments have been implemented to stimulate private innovation activities. The effectiveness of these measures, however, is ambiguous and calls for an empirical evaluation. In this paper we make use of the IAB Establishment Panel and apply various microeconometric methods to estimate the effect of public measures on innovation activities of German establishments. We find that neglecting sample selection due to observable as well as to unobservable characteristics leads to an overestimation of the treatment effect and that there are considerable differences with regard to size class and betweenWest and East German establishments.
Fracture numérique de genre en Afrique francophone : une inquiétante réalité ; réseau genre et TIC
(2005)
Ce document présente les principaux résultats de la recherche "Fracture numérique de genre en Afrique francophone : données et indicateurs", réalisée en 2004-2005 par le Réseau genre et TIC, grâce à une subvention du Centre de Recherches pour le Développement International (CRDI, Ottawa, Canada). Le Réseau genre et TIC est une initiative menée conjointement par l’organisation internationale Environnement et Développement du Tiers Monde (ENDA), l’Observatoire des Systèmes d’Information sur les Réseaux et Inforoutes du Sénégal (OSIRIS) et l’Agence sénégalaise de Régulation des Télécommunications (ART). Composé de personnes et d’organisations actives pour la promotion de l’égalité de genre dans le secteur des TIC, sa mission, en concertation avec l’ensemble des acteurs nationaux et partenaires internationaux, est de promouvoir l’égalité de genre dans la société de l’information.
This article presents an overview of the contemporary German insurance market, its structure, players, and development trends. First, brief information about the history of the insurance industry in Germany is provided. Second, the contemporary market is analyzed in terms of its legal and economic structure, with statistics on the number of companies, insurance density and penetration, the role of insurers in the capital markets, premiums split, and main market players and their market shares. Furthermore, the three biggest insurance lines—life, health, and property and casualty—are considered in more detail, such as product range, country specifics, and insurance and investment results. A section on regulation outlines its implementation in the insurance sector, offering information on the underlying legislative basis, supervisory body, technical procedures, expected developments, and sources of more detailed information.
Das Recht der sog. eigenkapitalersetzenden Gesellschafterdarlehen ist in der jüngeren Vergangenheit zunehmend Gegenstand der Kritik geworden. Mit dem nachfolgenden Beitrag wird auf der Grundlage einer kritischen Analyse der lex lata ein Vorschlag für eine Vereinfachung der Regeln über die Gesellschafterfremdfinanzierung in der Krise entwickelt.
Groundwater recharge is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate, in a spatially resolved way, global-scale groundwater recharge. In this report, improved model estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge at the global-scale, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, are presented. They are based on calculations of the global hydrological model WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) which, for semi-arid and arid areas of the globe, was tuned against independent point estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge. This has led to a decrease of estimated groundwater recharge under semi-arid and arid conditions as compared to the model results before tuning, and the new estimates are more similar to country level data on groundwater recharge. Using the improved model, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge was simulated, applying two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as interpreted by two different climate models.
This paper provides global terrestrial surface balances of nitrogen (N) at a resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 degree for the years 1961, 1995 and 2050 as simulated by the model WaterGAP-N. The terms livestock N excretion (Nanm), synthetic N fertilizer (Nfert), atmospheric N deposition (Ndep) and biological N fixation (Nfix) are considered as input while N export by plant uptake (Nexp) and ammonia volatilization (Nvol) are taken into account as output terms. The different terms in the balance are compared to results of other global models and uncertainties are described. Total global surface N surplus increased from 161 Tg N yr-1 in 1961 to 230 Tg N yr-1 in 1995. Using assumptions for the scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as quantified by the IMAGE model, total global surface N surplus is estimated to be 229 Tg N yr-1 in 2050. However, the implementation of these scenario assumptions leads to negative surface balances in many agricultural areas on the globe, which indicates that the assumptions about N fertilizer use and crop production changes are not consistent. Recommendations are made on how to change the assumptions about N fertilizer use to receive a more consistent scenario, which would lead to higher N surpluses in 2050 as compared to 1995.
Small and medium-sized firms typically obtain capital via bank financing. They often rely on a mixture of relationship and arm’s-length banking. This paper explores the reasons for the dominance of heterogeneous multiple banking systems. We show that the incidence of inefficient credit termination and subsequent firm liquidation is contingent on the borrower’s quality and on the relationship bank’s information precision. Generally, heterogeneous multiple banking leads to fewer inefficient credit decisions than monopoly relationship lending or homogeneous multiple banking, provided that the relationship bank’s fraction of total firm debt is not too large.
Small and medium-sized firms typically obtain capital via bank financing. They often rely on a mixture of relationship and arm’s-length banking. This paper explores the reasons for the dominance of heterogeneous multiple banking systems. We show that the incidence of inefficient credit termination and subsequent firm liquidation is contingent on the borrower’s quality and on the relationship bank’s information precision. Generally, heterogeneous multiple banking leads to fewer inefficient credit decisions than monopoly relationship lending or homogeneous multiple banking, provided that the relationship bank’s fraction of total firm debt is not too large.
Previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in Germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative. However, we find that this is not true for all strata of the population. Identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency. We present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity. Our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups. Exceptions are long-term unemployed men in West and long-term unemployed women in East and West Germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates. JEL: C13 , J68 , H43
Using a set of regional inflation rates we examine the dynamics of inflation dispersion within the U.S.A., Japan and across U.S. and Canadian regions. We find that inflation rate dispersion is significant throughout the sample period in all three samples. Based on methods applied in the empirical growth literature, we provide evidence in favor of significant mean reversion (ß-convergence) in inflation rates in all considered samples. The evidence on ó-convergence is mixed, however. Observed declines in dispersion are usually associated with decreasing overall inflation levels which indicates a positive relationship between mean inflation and overall inflation rate dispersion. Our findings for the within-distribution dynamics of regional inflation rates show that dynamics are largest for Japanese prefectures, followed by U.S. metropolitan areas. For the combined U.S.-Canadian sample, we find a pattern of within-distribution dynamics that is comparable to that found for regions within the European Monetary Union (EMU). In line with findings in the so-called 'border literature' these results suggest that frictions across European markets are at least as large as they are, e.g., across North American markets. Klassifikation: E31, E52, E58
Die Arbeit ist Teil der konzeptionellen Vorbereitung einer Dissertation zum Thema Innovationsfinanzierung im Mittelstand. Sie stellt gleichzeitig die Grundlage einer explorativen Erhebung zur Innovationstätigkeit und Finanzierungsproblematik Kunststoff verarbeitender Unternehmen der südlichen Westpfalz dar, welche im Sommer 2004 durchgeführt wurde. Innovationspolitische Diskussionen konzentrieren sich in Deutschland fast ausschließlich auf so genannte High Tech-Industrien. Unter Verwendung von Indikatoren zur Messung des Personal- und des Investitionsaufwandes in Forschungs- und Entwicklungsabteilungen, der Kooperationshäufigkeit zwischen Forschungseinrichtungen und Unternehmen oder Patentanmeldungen werden Branchen hinsichtlich Innovativität und nachhaltiger Förderwürdigkeit bewertet. Aufgrund fehlender alternativer Indikatoren zur Innovationstätigkeit in Unternehmen werden weite Teile des Mittelstandes ausgeblendet. Regionen, in denen sich traditionelle Branchen konzentrieren, werden für die dynamische Entwicklung der Volkswirtschaft als weniger bedeutend eingestuft. So liegen beispielsweise die FuE-Aufwendungen der Kunststoff verarbeitenden Industrie unter dem Durchschnitt des verarbeitenden Gewerbes. Sie ist eine typische Zulieferindustrie. Über Interaktionen mit Zulieferern und Kunden erschließen sich Kunststoff verarbeitende Unternehmen wichtige Innovationsimpulse. Mit praktischen Kompetenzen generiert sie einen Mehrwert an technologischem Fortschritt für eine Vielzahl vor- und nachgelagerter Industriezweige. Die Beziehungen der Kunststoffverarbeiter zu ihren Kunden sind stark projektbezogen. Es dominieren inkrementelle Innovationen. Die Struktur der Branche unterliegt daher einem stetigen Wandel. Erfolgreiche lohnfertigende Zulieferer werden zu System-Zulieferern oder bringen eigene Produkte auf den Markt. Die statistische Erfassung der Innovationsleistungen der Branche wird durch ihre Zuliefer-Rolle zusätzlich erschwert. Auch die Ableitung des tatsächlichen Innovationsaufwandes kann nicht ohne weiteres erfolgen. Es bedarf eines angepassten Innovationsverständnisses. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, ein Verständnis für die Innovationsleistungen einer mittelständisch geprägten, in Wertschöpfungsketten eingebetteten Low Tech Branche zu entwickeln. Es sollen Ansatzpunkte für eine Klassifikation der Innovationsaktivitäten und aufwendungen erarbeitet werden. Nach einer kurzen Diskussion der Unzweckmäßigkeit einer einseitigen Verwendung FuE-basierter Indikatoren werden im dritten Kapitel für die Kunststoff verarbeitenden Industrie Aspekte branchenspezifischer Innovationsprozesse ermittelt und klassifiziert. Die Entwicklung von Produkt-, Werkstoff- und Werkzeugkonzepten durch Kunststoff verarbeitende Unternehmen werden als zentrale Innovationsaktivitäten der Branche herausgearbeitet. Das letzte Kapitel dient der Diskussion der zu erwartenden Risiken und Investitionsaufwendungen dieser Entwicklungsleistungen. Mögliche Finanzierungsformen werden abgeleitet.
In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB.We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of aMinimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance. We extract priors that would rationalize the Minimax policy from a Bayesian perspective. These priors indicate that full insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses. Furthermore, this policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy rule. We propose to strike a compromise and use preferences for policy design that allow for intermediate degrees of ambiguity-aversion.These preferences allow the specification of priors but also give extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes in a given context. JEL Klassifikation: E52, E58, E61.
How do markets spread risk when events are unknown or unknowable and where not anticipated in an insurance contract? While the policyholder can "hold up" the insurer for extra contractual payments, the continuing gains from trade on a single contract are often too small to yield useful coverage. By acting as a repository of the reputations of the parties, we show the brokers provide a coordinating mechanism to leverage the collective hold up power of policyholders. This extends both the degree of implicit and explicit coverage. The role is reflected in the terms of broker engagement, specifically in the ownership by the broker of the renewal rights. Finally, we argue that brokers can be motivated to play this role when they receive commissions that are contingent on insurer profits. This last feature questions a recent, well publicized, attack on broker compensation by New York attorney general, Elliot Spitzer. Klassifikation: G22, G24, L14
The theory of intertemporal consumption choice makes sharp predictions about the evolution of the entire distribution of household consumption, not just about its conditional mean. In the paper, we study the empirical transition matrix of consumption using a panel drawn from the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth. We estimate the parameters that minimize the distance between the empirical and the theoretical transition matrix of the consumption distribution. The transition matrix generated by our estimates matches remarkably well the empirical matrix, both in the aggregate and in samples stratified by education. Our estimates strongly reject the consumption insurance model and suggest that households smooth income shocks to a lesser extent than implied by the permanent income hypothesis. Klassifikation: D52, D91, I30
This paper examines intraday stock price effects and trading activity caused by ad hoc disclosures in Germany. The evidence suggests that the observed stock prices react within 90 minutes after the ad hoc disclosures. Trading volumes take even longer to adjust. We find no evidence for abnormal price reactions or abnormal trading volume before announcements. The bigger the company that announces an ad hoc disclosure, the less severe is the abnormal price effect following the announcement. The number of analysts is negatively correlated to the trading volume effect before the ad hoc disclosure. The higher the trading volume on the last trading day before the announcement, the greater is the price effect after the ad hoc disclosures and the greater the trading volume effect. Keywords: ad hoc disclosure rules, intraday stock price adjustments, market efficiency.
Im Rahmen des DFG-Forschungsprojektes Scha 237/12-1 (Betreuer Prof. Dr. Eike W. Schamp) in Kooperation mit der University of Jordan in Amman/Jordanien (Betreuer Prof. Dr. Nasim Barham) wird derzeit u.a. die Rolle deutscher Reiseveranstalter (RV) in der (globalen) Wertschöpfungskette (Global Commodity Chain, GCC) des Pauschaltourismus von Deutschland nach Jordanien untersucht. Das vorliegende Papier gibt vornehmlich einen ersten Zwischenstand im Rahmen der laufenden empirischen Erhebung unter klein- und mittelständischen RV in Deutschland wieder, welche Reisen nach Jordanien innerhalb ihres Programmportfolios konzipieren und an den Endkunden, den Tourist, verkaufen. Der Schwerpunkt des Papers liegt auf der Identifizierung von Mechanismen der Zusammenarbeit zwischen zwei verschiedenen Unternehmen einer touristischen GCC, der deutsche RV sowie die jordanische Zielgebietsagentur (ZA). Beide wirken als zentrale Akteure bei der Erstellung einer Pauschalreise, indem sie jeweils Leistungen von Fremdanbietern bündeln und somit als (verschieden mächtige) „Knoten“ im Prozess der Leistungserstellung wirken. Dieser Prozess findet über weite geographische Distanzen statt.
Kapitalmarktorientierte Risikosteuerung in Banken : Marktwertsteuerung statt Marktzinsmethode
(2005)
In diesem Beitrag wird das Konzept der Marktzinsmethode als Grundlage der dualen Risikosteuerung von Kredit- und Marktpreisrisiken in Frage gestellt. Die Kreditrisiken einer Bank implizieren bonitätsinduzierte Marktpreisrisiken und bankspezifische Refinanzierungskosten. Während die bonitätsinduzierten Marktpreisrisiken in der dualen Risikosteuerung keine Berücksichtigung finden, werden die bankspezifischen Refinanzierungskosten zwar erkannt, aber bankintern nicht verursachungsgerecht zugeordnet. Das Grundmodell der Marktzinsmethode bietet keine Lösungsansätze zur Behebung dieser Probleme. Demgegenüber lassen sich die Fehlsteuerungsimpulse von vornherein durch eine konsequente Marktbewertung (Mark to Market) aller Finanzinstrumente vermeiden. Als Ausblick werden erste Überlegungen zur Implementierung einer umfassenden Marktwertsteuerung in Banken entwickelt und exemplarisch ein hierfür geeignetes Bewertungsmodell vorgestellt.
Current thinking on African conflicts suffers from misinterpretations oversimplification, lack of focus, lack of conceptual clarity, state-centrism and lack of vision). The paper analyses a variety of the dominant explanations of major international actors and donors, showing how these frequently do not distinguish with sufficient clarity between the ‘root causes’ of a conflict, its aggravating factors and its triggers. Specifically, a correct assessment of conflict prolonging (or sustaining) factors is of vital importance in Africa’s lingering confrontations. Broader approaches (e.g. “structural stability”) offer a better analytical framework than familiar one-dimensional explanations. Moreover, for explaining and dealing with violent conflicts a shift of attention from the nation-state towards the local and sub-regional level is needed.
While much of classical statistical analysis is based on Gaussian distributional assumptions, statistical modeling with the Laplace distribution has gained importance in many applied fields. This phenomenon is rooted in the fact that, like the Gaussian, the Laplace distribution has many attractive properties. This paper investigates two methods of combining them and their use in modeling and predicting financial risk. Based on 25 daily stock return series, the empirical results indicate that the new models offer a plausible description of the data. They are also shown to be competitive with, or superior to, use of the hyperbolic distribution, which has gained some popularity in asset-return modeling and, in fact, also nests the Gaussian and Laplace. Klassifikation: C16, C50 . March 2005.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models. JEL Klassifikation: G1, E4, E5.
In this paper, we propose a model of credit rating agencies using the global games framework to incorporate information and coordination problems. We introduce a refined utility function of a credit rating agency that, additional to reputation maximization, also embeds aspects of competition and feedback effects of the rating on the rated firms. Apart from hinting at explanations for several hypotheses with regard to agencies' optimal rating assessments, our model suggests that the existence of rating agencies may decrease the incidence of multiple equilibria. If investors have discretionary power over the precision of their private information, we can prove that public rating announcements and private information collection are complements rather than substitutes in order to secure uniqueness of equilibrium. In this respect, rating agencies may spark off a virtuous circle that increases the efficiency of the market outcome.
The paper is a follow-up to an article published in Technique Financière et Developpement in 2000 (see the appendix to the hardcopy version), which portrayed the first results of a new strategy in the field of development finance implemented in South-East Europe. This strategy consists in creating microfinance banks as greenfield investments, that is, of building up new banks which specialise in providing credit and other financial services to micro and small enterprises, instead of transforming existing credit-granting NGOs into formal banks, which had been the dominant approach in the 1990s. The present paper shows that this strategy has, in the course of the last five years, led to the emergence of a network of microfinance banks operating in several parts of the world. After discussing why financial sector development is a crucial determinant of general social and economic development and contrasting the new strategy to former approaches in the area of development finance, the paper provides information about the shareholder composition and the investment portfolio of what is at present the world's largest and most successful network of microfinance banks. This network is a good example of a well-functioning "private public partnership". The paper then provides performance figures and discusses why the creation of such a network seems to be a particularly promising approach to the creation of financially self-sustaining financial institutions with a clear developmental objective.