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This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: C53, D84, E31, E32, E37 Keywords: Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
This paper analyzes loan pricing when there is multiple banking and borrower distress. Using a unique data set on SME lending collected from major German banks, we can instrument for effective coordination between lenders, carrying out a panel estimation. The analysis allows to distinguish between rents that accrue due to single bank lending, rents that accrue due to relationship lending, and rents that accrue due to the elimination of competition among multiple lenders. We find the relationship lending to have no discernible impact on loan spreads, while both single lending and coordinated multiple lending significantly increase the spread. Thus, contrary to predictions in the literature, multiple lending does not insure the borrower against hold-up. JEL Classification: D74, G21, G33, G34
Grace in Sikhism
(2010)
As in all other religions there are two contrary streaming in Sikhism too. One teaches that meaning and value of human existence depends on the human works which we call the operative model. The other streaming preaches that the Holy’s grace is the substance of men’s ultimate destination, and it alone gives meaning to their existence; this position we call the receptive model. As the third streaming we can identify the doctrine of conditioned gratification which means that the humans get Divine support for achieving the salvation of their souls. This third one is obviously the predominant model in all religions. The religious books of the Sikhs have incorporated all positions. Therefore they are widespread and popular. Everybody finds what suits to him. We will reconstruct the receptive model as it is shown in Nitnem, where the daily prayers od the Sikhs are collected.
Die ägyptische Al-Azhar Universität feierte in März des Jahres 1983 ihr tausendjähriges Gründungsjubiläum. Chronologisch ist dieses Jubiläum allerdings etwas umstritten. In Wahrheit sind seit der Gründung der Al-Azhar nämlich keine 1000, sondern bereits 1013 Jahre verstrichen. Die Bauarbeiten an der Al-Azhar Moschee hatten bereits im April 970 angefangen. Die tausend Jahre verstehen sich somit als Beginn des eigentlichen Studienbetriebs an der Al-Azhar, die als Institution einige Jahre älter ist. Schon im Jahre 1942 hatte eine 1000-Jahrfeier an der Al-Azhar abgehalten werden sollen. Laut islamischem Mondkalender waren in eben diesem Jahr 1000 Mondjahre vergangen, doch die Ereignisse des 2. Weltkrieges, in den ja auch Ägypten verwickelt war, machten jede Hoffnung auf dies bezügliche Feierlichkeiten zunichte. Die Al-Azhar-Universität nennt sich die älteste Universität der Welt, durchaus mit Recht. Wenngleich man zugeben muß, daß schon lange vor der Gründung der Al-Azhar, Schulen und Akademien für das Studium aller Wissensgebiete existierten, von denen die bedeutendsten gerade hier in Ägypten angesiedelt waren. Man denke nur an die altägyptische Akademie von On, welcher Ort später von den Griechen Heliopolis genannt wurde, oder an die berühmte antike Akademie von Alexandrien. Es ist somit kein Zufall, daß nach der Ausbreitung des Islam eben hier im Niltal das erste große islamische Wissenszentrum gegründet wurde. ...