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The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close enough to model-consistency. It is found that commitment continues to be important for optimal policy, that the optimal long-run inflation target is unaffected by the degree of potential distortion of beliefs, and that optimal policy is even more history-dependent than if rational expectations are assumed. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E42
We have used the SLIMCAT 3-D off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to quantify the Arctic chemical ozone loss in the year 2002/2003 and compare it with similar calculations for the winters 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. Recent changes to the CTM have improved the model's ability to reproduce polar chemical and dynamical processes. The updated CTM uses σ-θ as a vertical coordinate which allows it to extend down to the surface. The CTM has a detailed stratospheric chemistry scheme and now includes a simple NAT-based denitrification scheme in the stratosphere.
In the model runs presented here the model was forced by ECMWF ERA40 and operational analyses. The model used 24 levels extending from the surface to ~55km and a horizontal resolution of either 7.5° x 7.5° or 2.8° x 2.8°. Two different radiation schemes, MIDRAD and the CCM scheme, were used to diagnose the vertical motion in the stratosphere. Based on tracer observations from balloons and aircraft, the more sophisticated CCM scheme gives a better representation of the vertical transport in this model which includes the troposphere. The higher resolution model generally produces larger chemical O3 depletion, which agrees better with observations.
The CTM results show that very early chemical ozone loss occurred in December 2002 due to extremely low temperatures and early chlorine activation in the lower stratosphere. Thus, chemical loss in this winter started earlier than in the other two winters studied here. In 2002/2003 the local polar ozone loss in the lower stratosphere was ~40% before the stratospheric final warming. Larger ozone loss occurred in the cold year 1999/2000 which had a persistently cold and stable vortex during most of the winter. For this winter the current model, at a resolution of 2.8° x 2.8°, can reproduce the observed loss of over 70% locally. In the warm and more disturbed winter 2003/2004 the chemical O3 loss was generally much smaller, except above 620K where large losses occurred due to a period of very low minimum temperatures at these altitudes.
Number concentrations of total and non-volatile aerosol particles with size diameters >0.01 μm as well as particle size distributions (0.4–23 μm diameter) were measured in situ in the Arctic lower stratosphere (10–20.5 km altitude). The measurements were obtained during the campaigns European Polar Stratospheric Cloud and Lee Wave Experiment (EUPLEX) and Envisat-Arctic-Validation (EAV). The campaigns were based in Kiruna, Sweden, and took place from January to March 2003. Measurements were conducted onboard the Russian high-altitude research aircraft Geophysica using the low-pressure Condensation Nucleus Counter COPAS (COndensation PArticle Counter System) and a modified FSSP 300 (Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe). Around 18–20 km altitude typical total particle number concentrations nt range at 10–20 cm−3 (ambient conditions). Correlations with the trace gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) are discussed. Inside the polar vortex the total number of particles >0.01 μm increases with potential temperature while N2O is decreasing which indicates a source of particles in the above polar stratosphere or mesosphere. A separate channel of the COPAS instrument measures the fraction of aerosol particles non-volatile at 250°C. Inside the polar vortex a much higher fraction of particles contained non-volatile residues than outside the vortex (~67% inside vortex, ~24% outside vortex). This is most likely due to a strongly increased fraction of meteoric material in the particles which is transported downward from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex. The high fraction of non-volatile residual particles gives therefore experimental evidence for downward transport of mesospheric air inside the polar vortex. It is also shown that the fraction of non-volatile residual particles serves directly as a suitable experimental vortex tracer. Nanometer-sized meteoric smoke particles may also serve as nuclei for the condensation of gaseous sulfuric acid and water in the polar vortex and these additional particles may be responsible for the increase in the observed particle concentration at low N2O. The number concentrations of particles >0.4 μm measured with the FSSP decrease markedly inside the polar vortex with increasing potential temperature, also a consequence of subsidence of air from higher altitudes inside the vortex. Another focus of the analysis was put on the particle measurements in the lowermost stratosphere. For the total particle density relatively high number concentrations of several hundred particles per cm3 at altitudes below ~14 km were observed in several flights. To investigate the origin of these high number concentrations we conducted air mass trajectory calculations and compared the particle measurements with other trace gas observations. The high number concentrations of total particles in the lowermost stratosphere are probably caused by transport of originally tropospheric air from lower latitudes and are potentially influenced by recent particle nucleation.
Balloon-borne measurements of CFC11 (from the DIRAC in situ gas chromatograph and the DESCARTES grab sampler), ClO and O3 were made during the 1999/2000 Arctic winter as part of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign, based in Kiruna (Sweden). Here we present the CFC11 data from nine flights and compare them first with data from other instruments which flew during the campaign and then with the vertical distributions calculated by the SLIMCAT 3D CTM. We calculate ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex between late January and early March using the relation between CFC11 and O3 measured on the flights. The peak ozone loss (~1200ppbv) occurs in the 440-470K region in early March in reasonable agreement with other published empirical estimates. There is also a good agreement between ozone losses derived from three balloon tracer data sets used here. The magnitude and vertical distribution of the loss derived from the measurements is in good agreement with the loss calculated from SLIMCAT over Kiruna for the same days.
A new version of a digital global map of irrigation areas was developed by combining irrigation statistics for 10 825 sub-national statistical units and geo-spatial information on the location and extent of irrigation schemes. The map shows the percentage of each 5 arc minute by 5 arc minute cell that was equipped for irrigation around the year 2000. It is thus an important data set for global studies related to water and land use. This paper describes the data set and the mapping methodology and gives, for the first time, an estimate of the map quality at the scale of countries, world regions and the globe. Two indicators of map quality were developed for this purpose, and the map was compared to irrigated areas as derived from two remote sensing based global land cover inventories.
Flow velocity in rivers has a major impact on residence time of water and thus on high and low water as well as on water quality. For global scale hydrological modeling only very limited information is available for simulating flow velocity. Based on the Manning-Strickler equation, a simple algorithm to model temporally and spatially variable flow velocity was developed with the objective of improving flow routing in the global hydrological model of Water- GAP. An extensive data set of flow velocity measurements in US rivers was used to test and to validate the algorithm before integrating it into WaterGAP. In this test, flow velocity was calculated based on measured discharge and compared to measured velocity. Results show that flow velocity can be modeled satisfactorily at selected river cross sections. It turned out that it is quite sensitive to river roughness, and the results can be optimized by tuning this parameter. After the validation of the approach, the tested flow velocity algorithm has been implemented into the WaterGAP model. A final validation of its effects on the model results is currently performed.
The Kaon-Spectrometer (KaoS) at the heavy-ion synchrotron (SIS) at the Gesellschaft für Schwerionenforschung (GSI) in Darmstadt has been used to study production and propagation of K+ and K- mesons from Au+Au collisions at a kinetic beam energy of 1.5 AGeV. This energy for K+ mesons is close to the corresponding production threshold in binary nucleon-nucleon collisions and far below for K- mesons. The azimuthal angular distributions of particles as a function of the collision centrality and particle transverse momenta have been measured. The properties of strange mesons are expected to be modified by the in-medium meson-baryon potential. Theoretical calculations show that the superposition of the scalar and vector potentials leads to a small repulsive K+N and a strong attractive K-N potential. Additionally, the interaction of kaons and antikaons with nuclear matter is different. The strangeness conservation law inhibits the absorption probability of K+ mesons as they contain an s-quark. K- mesons, however, interact with nucleons via strangenessexchange (K- + N ->Y + pion, where Y = lambda, sigma). Moreover, the reverse process (pion + Y -> K- + N) is the dominant production mechanism of K- mesons at SIS energies. The azimuthal angular emission patterns of kaons are expected to be sensitive to the in-medium potentials. An enhanced out-of-plane emission of K+ mesons was observed in Au+Au reactions at 1.0 AGeV and 1.5 AGeV, and also in Ni+Ni at 1.93 AGeV. The out-of-plane emission of K+ mesons in Au+Au reactions at 1.0 AGeV was interpreted as a consequence of a repulsive K+N potential in the nuclear medium, however, recent transport calculations show that the emission patterns obtained in Au+Au at 1.5 AGeV and Ni+Ni at 1.93 AGeV are additionally influenced by the re-scattering of kaons. For K- mesons the calculations predict an almost isotropic emission pattern due to the attractive K-N potential which counteracts the absorption of K- mesons in the spectator fragments. In Ni+Ni collisions at 1.93 AGeV the azimuthal distribution of K- mesons has been found to be isotropic. In this case, however, the spectators are rather small and have large relative velocities. In addition, the delay of antikaon emission due to strangenessexchange reaction minimizes the interaction with the spectators. As a consequence the sensitivity of the K- meson emission pattern to the K-N in-medium potential is reduced. In Au+Au collisions we found a dependence of the K- meson azimuthal emission pattern on the transverse momentum. The antikaons registered with pt < 0.5 GeV/c are preferentially emitted in the reaction plane and the particles with pt > 0.5 GeV/c show strong out-of-plane enhancement. The emission patterns of K- can be explained in terms of two competing phenomena: one of them is indeed the influence of the attractive K-N potential, however, the second one originates from the strangeness-exchange process.
Soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) is a cytosolic enzyme producing the intracellular messenger cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) on activation with nitric oxide (NO) which leads to the activation of GMP dependent protein kinases and to vasodilation. NO signaling may be affected by altered expression of sGC subunits, as has been shown in different pathological and physiological conditions and developmental stages. The molecular mechanisms underlying altered sGC expression in these and other conditions have not yet been revealed. Gene expression can also be regulated at the level of mRNA through alterations in translational efficiency and in mRNA stability. HuR (Human R) is a ubiquitously expressed member of the embryonic lethal abnormal vision (ELAV) family of RNA-binding proteins. Among other RNAs, there has been recent evidence that the expression of sGC is subject to post-transcriptional regulation by HuR. It has been shown that chronic hypertension induces changes in HuR expression and activity, which account for decreased sGC expression and activity in the aorta of hypertensive rats. This thesis should study was performed in an effort to provide some insight to the transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation of sGC expression in a mammal, the rat. We investigated rat sGC alpha-1 transcriptional regulation in rat lung fibroblast (RLF-6) cells. The 3000bp 5' upstream region of the alpha-1 sGC gene was isolated and analyzed for promoter activity by using luciferase reporter constructs- Alpha3000 (with -2794 bp), Alpha1100 (-1092 bp), Alpha350 (-346 bp) and Alpha200 (-200 bp). The promoter activity was the highest in the 200bp construct (about 6-fold higher than Alpha3000) suggesting that this fragment contains all the crucial elements necessary to support basal transcription of the alpha-1 sGC gene. Analysis of the 200 bp of the 5’ UTR of the alpha-1 gene was performed using the MATINSPECTOR V2.2 software for putative transcription factors. The constructs containing the deleted sites for NFY and Sp1 showed a significant decrease in constitutive promoter activity by almost 80% and 60% respectively, implying that these transcription factors are crucial elements in the basal expression of the of sGC alpha-1 subunit. Treatment of RLF-6 cells with genistein 50 microM and mithramycinA 100 nM, known to inhibit the NFY and Sp1 binding to DNA respectively, reflected the same effects. Furthermore the cGMP content of the cells was significantly reduced by both inhibitors, almost completely by genistein, and by about 40 % by mithramycinA. Electrophoretic mobility-shift assay (EMSA) clearly showed the formation of multiple complexes with the biotinylated ODN (decoy oligodeoxynucleotide) probes for NFY and Sp1 when incubated with RLF-6 nuclear extract. A “supershift” observed in the presence of antibodies to the individual transcription factors confirmed that these factors were present in the shifted band, indeed. NFY and Sp1 are instrumental in several physiological and pathophysiological effects mediated by several growth factors in smooth muscle cells. Thus the regulation of the promoter, in response to serum, was also analysed. 10% foetal calf serum led to decreased alpha-1 sGC level as shown by western blots performed with rat aorta. Decreased sGC alpha-1 mRNA expression was observed in RLF-6 cells and cultured rat aortic smooth muscle cells incubated with FCS for 24 hours. This decrease was reflected in the promoter activity in RLF-6 cells using both Alpha3000 and Alpha200 constructs confirming that the regulation took place at promoter level. EMSA performed with nuclear extracts from FCS treated RLF-6 cells led to diminished binding to NFY, but to an enhanced binding to Sp1 site. We concluded that the factors Sp1 and NFY (the sites overlapping) compete for binding, and in the presence of FCS, it is Sp1 that binds stronger, and hence results in diminishing promoter activity. In order to delineate the post-transcriptional regulation of sGC alpha-1 subunit, studies were performed to demonstrate the regulation of expression of the mRNA stabilizing protein HuR. It has been observed that exposure of isolated rat aortic segments to the activator of adenylyl cyclase, forskolin, strongly reduced sGC alpha-1/beta-1 and HuR protein and mRNA expression in a time-dependent and actinomycin D-sensitive fashion. Transcription factor decoy approach proved that the cAMP-induced down-regulation of HuR is mediated by the activation of AP-1. It has been established that HuR stabilises the sGC alpha-1 and beta-1 mRNA. However the pathway underlying this regulation remains unknown. In order to identify the mechanism of this regulation, we looked for HuR interacting proteins employing the yeast two hybrid assay. The enzyme of the polyamine catabolic pathway spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase (SSAT) was found to interact with the hinge region of HuR. This interaction was confirmed by performing immunoprecipitation and GST-pulldown experiments. A direct effect of these proteins on each other’s biological activity was not visible as tested through the SSAT activity assay and HuR gel shift. It might be possible that SSAT-mediated modulation of local polyamine concentrations enhances/reduces HuR activity and sGC expression to affect cell proliferation. In summary, this study represents an analysis of the rat sGC alpha-1 promoter regulation in rat fibroblast cells and identifies NFY and Sp1 as important factors in sGC alpha-1 expression. It also gives first evidence of sGC regulation at the transcriptional level in response to an external stimulus, and proposes the possible mechanism. It also identifies SSAT as a HuR interacting protein. These might have implications in the various pathophysiological conditions where sGC plays an important role.
The generation of O2- by NADPH oxidaes was mainly attributed to immune cells that kill invading bacteria or cancer cells. But importantly, in the past several years, several homologs of the catalytic subunit gp91phox (Nox2) of the phagocytic NADPH oxidase have been identified in non-immune cells and tissues. Superoxide production derived from NADPH oxidaes has been shown to play a role not only in host defense but also in defined signaling cascades mediating growth and apoptosis. The aim of this work was to study the expression and the regulation of the”new” Nox isoforms in rat renal mesangial cells (MC). In particular the following results were achieved. 1) mRNA’s for both Nox1 and Nox4 were detected by RT-PCR. 2) Nox1 mRNA levels were increased upon exposure to basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) and fetal calf serum (FCS) in a time- and dose-dependent manner. Exposure of MC to bFGF and FCS increased also basal production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by MC. By contrast, Nox4 mRNA levels were not significantly affected by bFGF treatment, but were markedly down-regulated by PDGF and FCS. 3) To study the regulation of Nox1 on the protein level, an anti-Nox1 antibody was generated and characterized using affinity chromatography. Up-regulation of Nox1 expression by growth factors was confirmed also on the protein level. 4) Based on the already known cDNA sequence for Nox1, the transcriptional start site was determined by the “gene RACE” technique. 2547 bp of the genomic sequence of the 5´-flanking region of the Nox1 gene were cloned and sequenced using the „Genome-Walking“ method. To study the regulation of Nox1 transcription functional Nox1 promoter/luciferase fusions were be established. MC were transiently transfected with different promoter/luciferase constructs and stimulated with growth factors. By measuring luciferase activity it was determined that growth factors induced the Nox1 transcription and that the Nox1 core promoter is sufficient for the activation. 5) By measurement of superoxide radicals and analysis of Nox1 mRNA expression by quantitative RT-PCR (TaqMan) as well as protein level by Western blotting it could be shown that treatment of MC with NO donors inhibited the expression of Nox1 in a time- and dose-dependent manner. Moreover, using activators and inhibitors of the soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) it could be shown, that the activation of sGC mediates the effect of NO on Nox1 expression. However, NO had no inhibitory effect on Nox1 promoter activity. Experiments with the inhibitor of transcription, actinomycin D, suggest that NO-mediated regulation of Nox1 is triggered probably via post-transcriptional mechanisms. Nox4 is regulated on the mRNA levels in a similar manner as Nox1. 6) To analyze the sub-cellular localization of the Nox isoforms, coding sequences for Nox1 and Nox4 were fused together with green fluorescent protein into the pEGFP-N1 demonstrated that both isoforms are localized predominantly in the plasma membrane, but also in the perinuclear region and cytoplasm. However, the localization of Nox1 in the plasma membrane was more pronounced. 7) In addition to Nox1 and Nox4, mRNA of the newly identified NOXA1 that is a homolog of the p67phox subunit of NADPH oxidase was detected in MC by RT-PCR.
In large models of neuronal cell death, there is a tight correlation between Cdk5 deregulation and cell-cycle dysfunction. However, pathways that link Cdk5 to the cell cycle during neuronal death are still unclear. We have investigated the molecular events that precede p25/Cdk5-triggered neuronal death using a neuronal cell line that allows inducible p25 expression. In this system, no sign of apoptosis was seen before 24 hours of p25 induction. Thus, at that time, cell-cycle-regulatory proteins were analysed by immunoblotting and some of them showed a significant deregulation. Interestingly, after time-course experiments, the earliest feature correlated with p25 expression was the phosphorylation of the retinoblastoma protein (Rb). Indeed, this phosphorylation was observed 6 hours after p25 induction and was abolished in the presence of a Cdk5 inhibitor, roscovitine, which does not inhibit the usual Rb cyclin-D kinases Cdk4 and Cdk6. Furthermore, analyses of levels and subcellular localization of Cdk-related cyclins did not reveal any change following Cdk5 activation, arguing for a direct effect of Cdk5 activity on Rb protein. This latter result was clearly demonstrated by in vitro kinase assays showing that the p25-Cdk5 complex in our cell system phosphorylates Rb directly without the need for any intermediary kinase activity. Hence, Rb might be an appropriate candidate that connects Cdk5 to cell-cycle deregulation during neuronal cell death.