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Im Folgenden wird […] [z]unächst […] an Daniel Cramers Emblemata sacra die dem Emblem eignende sakramentale Prägekraft als Einprägung des Wortes Gottes in die Seele des Rezipienten erläutert. Dieses der Emblematik zugesprochene Vermögen thematisiert Cramer nicht nur in einem metareflexiven Emblem, er legt es seinem Emblembuch auch konzeptionell als ein Element des Heilsweges zu göttlicher Gnade zugrunde. Diese meditative Funktion der Emblematik wird vor allem durch den Status des Wortes als göttliches Wort gewährleistet, das durch die Pictura, das äußere Bild, der Seele des Gläubigen, gleichsam als inneres Bild (imago), eingeprägt werden kann. Insbesondere in den Schriften der Sprachtheoretiker Justus Georg Schottelius und Georg Philipp Harsdörffer lassen sich Zusammenhänge zwischen den göttlichen Zeichen der Hieroglyphik als Grundlage der Emblematik und einer ontologischen Zeichentheorie festmachen, die sich auf die unmittelbare Verbindung von Sache und Wort vor der Folie der lingua adamica beruft. Beide Konzepte, die Präsenzwerdung des absenten göttlichen Predigtwortes durch die Prägekraft der Pictura in Cramers heiligen Emblemen sowie der sprachpatriotische Status des göttlichen Wortes, finden eine messtheologische Synthese in Johann Michael Dilherrs Predigtsammlung der Heiligen Sonn- und Festtags-Arbeit. Abschließend wird hier der emblematische Vollzug des Sakramentalen exemplarisch zu rekonstruieren sein.
MoSyD-Jahresbericht 2011 : Drogentrends in Frankfurt am Main : Monitoring-System Drogentrends
(2012)
How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous
rm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the 'competition effect', by which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises. We
find that a 1 percent increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.18 percent. Most of the cyclical variability in inflation is driven by markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks rather than endogenous changes in desired markups.
This paper characterises optimal monetary policy in an economy with endogenous
firm entry, a cash-in-advance constraint and preset wages. Firms must make pro
fits to cover entry costs; thus the markup on goods prices is efficient. However, because leisure is not priced at a markup, the consumption-leisure tradeoff is distorted. Consequently, the real wage, hours and production are suboptimally low. Due to the labour requirement in entry, insufficient labour supply also implies that entry is too low. The paper shows that in the absence of
fiscal instruments such as labour income subsidies, the optimal monetary policy under sticky wages achieves higher welfare than under flexible wages. The policy maker uses the money supply instrument to raise the real wage - the cost of leisure - above its flexible-wage level, in response to expansionary shocks to productivity and entry costs. This raises labour supply, expanding production and
rm entry.
Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery increases length of hospital stay and in-hospital mortality. A significant number of patients undergoing cardiac surgical procedures require perioperative intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support. Use of an IABP has been linked to an increased incidence of perioperative renal dysfunction and death. This might be due to dislodgement of atherosclerotic material in the descending thoracic aorta (DTA). Therefore, we retrospectively studied the correlation between DTA atheroma, AKI and in-hospital mortality.
Methods: A total of 454 patients were retrospectively matched to one of four groups: -IABP/-DTA atheroma, +IABP/-DTA atheroma, -IABP/+DTA atheroma, +IABP/+DTA atheroma. Patients were then matched according to presence/absence of DTA atheroma, presence/absence of IABP, performed surgical procedure, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). DTA atheroma was assessed through standard transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) imaging studies of the descending thoracic aorta.
Results: Basic patient characteristics, except for age and gender, did not differ between groups. Perioperative AKI in patients with -DTA atheroma/+IABP was 5.1% versus 1.7% in patients with -DTA atheroma/-IABP. In patients with +DTA atheroma/+IABP the incidence of AKI was 12.6% versus 5.1% in patients with +DTA atheroma/-IABP. In-hospital mortality in patients with +DTA atheroma/-IABP was 3.4% versus 8.4% with +DTA atheroma/+IABP. In patients with +DTA atheroma/+IABP in hospital mortality was 20.2% versus 6.4% with +DTA atheroma/-IABP. Multivariate logistic regression identified DTA atheroma > 1 mm (P = *0.002, odds ratio (OR) = 4.13, confidence interval (CI) = 1.66 to 10.30), as well as IABP support (P = *0.015, OR = 3.04, CI = 1.24 to 7.45) as independent predictors of perioperative AKI and increased in-hospital mortality. DTA atheroma in conjunction with IABP significantly increased the risk of developing acute kidney injury (P = 0.0016) and in-hospital mortality (P = 0.0001) when compared to control subjects without IABP and without DTA atheroma.
Conclusions: Perioperative IABP and DTA atheroma are independent predictors of perioperative AKI and in-hospital mortality. Whether adding an IABP in patients with severe DTA calcification increases their risk of developing AKI and mortality postoperatively cannot be clearly answered in this study. Nevertheless, when IABP and DTA are combined, patients are more likely to develop AKI and to die postoperatively in comparison to patients without IABP and DTA atheroma.
This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are discussed in detail. These models address the famous Lucas critique by deriving behavioral equations systematically from the optimizing and forward-looking decision-making of households and firms subject to well-defined constraints. State-of-the-art methods for solving and estimating such models are reviewed and presented in examples. The chapter goes beyond the mere presentation of the most popular benchmark model by providing a framework for model comparison along with a database that includes a wide variety of macroeconomic models. Thus, it offers a convenient approach for comparing new models to available benchmarks and for investigating whether particular policy recommendations are robust to model uncertainty. Such robustness analysis is illustrated by evaluating the performance of simple monetary policy rules across a range of recently-estimated models including some with financial market imperfections and by reviewing recent comparative findings regarding the magnitude of government spending multipliers. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important objectives for on-going and future research using the New Keynesian framework.
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Point forecasts of some models are of similar accuracy as the forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts of different DSGE models turn out to be quite distinct. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from individual models. The accuracy of a simple average of DSGE model forecasts is comparable to Greenbook projections for medium term horizons. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts.
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as accurate as the Greenbook projections for output growth and the federal funds rate. Only for inflation the model forecasts are dominated by the Greenbook projections. A comparison with forecasts from Bayesian VARs shows that the economic structure of the DSGE models which is useful for the interpretation of forecasts does not lower the accuracy of forecasts. Combining forecasts of several DSGE models increases precision in comparison to individual model forecasts. Comparing density forecasts with the actual distribution of observations shows that DSGE models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts.
Nach den Kolloquien, die 2009 und 2010 in Braga/Portugal stattfanden, organisierte der Portugiesische Germanistikverband (APEG - Associação Portuguesa de Estudos Germanísticos) am 28. und 29. Oktober 2011 sein III. Forum, welches jungen GermanistInnen gewidmet war. Die Tagung fand in diesem Jahr an der Universität Coimbra statt und versammelte über 20 junge GermanistInnen, die ihre Forschungsarbeiten zum Thema „Em Trânsito – Übergänge. Grenzen überschreiten in der Germanistik“ vortrugen. Diese Sondernummer der REAL stellt einige der Beiträge dieses Kolloquiums der breiteren Gemeinschaft der GermanistInnen vor. Damit wollen sowohl die APEG als auch die REAL ihren Beitrag zur Förderung des internationalen Nachwuchses in der Germanistik leisten.
Die jungen GermanistInnen wurden dazu eingeladen, über Kultur als einen dynamischen Prozess und als Zusammentreffen verschiedenartiger komplexer Beziehungen von und in unterschiedlichen (Grenz)gebieten, die sich ständig neu definieren, zu äußern. Das Kolloquium gab die Möglichkeit zu einer breiten Diskussion über die Wahrnehmung von Grenzen und deren unterschiedliche Herausbildung, über Verschränkungen, Verhandlungen und Übersetzung, über Identitäten, Beziehungen und Konzepte, die sich entlang, gegen und mit diesen Grenzen herausbilden und artikulieren.
Die verschiedenen Sektionen und Beiträge dieser Sondernummer dokumentieren, dass die hybriden Gebiete und fließenden Schnittstellen, die sich beim Zusammentreffen von Grenzen ergeben, zumeist die größten Herausforderungen, aber auch die produktivsten Schauplätze für konzeptionelle Entwicklungen und praktische Analysen darstellen. Sie zwingen uns, sowohl Konzepte und Fachgebiete, als auch den eigenen Standort in der Wissenschaft zu hinterfragen, da sie den epistemologischen Prozess durch Instabilität, Bewegung und Verschiebungen beeinflussen.