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This paper sets the background for the Special Issue of the Journal of Empirical Finance on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. It identifies the channel through which risks in the financial industry leaked into the public sector. It discusses the role of the bank rescues in igniting the sovereign debt crisis and reviews approaches to detect early warning signals to anticipate the buildup of crises. It concludes with a discussion of potential implications of sovereign distress for financial markets.
This paper investigates whether the overpricing of out-of-the money single stock calls can be explained by Tversky and Kahneman’s (1992) cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We argue that these options are overpriced because investors overweight small probability events and overpay for such positively skewed securities, i.e., characteristics of lottery tickets. We match a set of subjective density functions derived from risk-neutral densities, including CPT with the empirical probability distribution of U.S. equity returns. We find that overweighting of small probabilities embedded in CPT explains on average the richness of out-of-the money single stock calls better than other utility functions. The degree that agents overweight small probability events is, however, strongly timevarying and has a horizon effect, which implies that it is less pronounced in options of longer maturity. We also find that time-variation in overweighting of small probabilities is strongly explained by market sentiment, as in Baker and Wurgler (2006).
Low probability events are overweighted in the pricing of out-of the-money index puts and single stock calls. We find that this behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, linked to equity market sentiment, and higher moments of the risk-neutral density. An implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure that is jointly derived from index and single stock options explains investors' overweight of tail events the best. Our findings also suggest that IV-sentiment predicts equity markets reversals better than overweight of small probabilities itself. When employed in a trading strategy, IV-sentiment delivers economically significant results, which are more consistent than the ones produced by the market sentiment factor. The joint use of information from the single stock and index option markets seems to explain the forecasting power of IV-sentiment. Out-of-sample tests on reversal prediction show that our IV-sentiment measure adds value over and above traditional factors in the equity risk premium literature, especially as an equity-buying signal. This reversals prediction seems to improve time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies.
Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the potential risk of gadobutrol-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment for the development of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis (NSF).
Materials and Methods: We performed a prospective, international, multicenter, open-label study in 55 centers. Patients with moderate to severe renal impairment scheduled for any gadobutrol-enhanced MRI were included. All patients received a single intravenous bolus injection of gadobutrol at a dose of 0.1 mmol/kg body weight. The primary target variable was the number of patients who develop NSF within a 2-year follow-up period.
Results: A total of 908 patients were enrolled, including 586 with moderate and 284 with severe renal impairment who are at highest risk for developing NSF. The mean time since renal disease diagnosis was 1.83 and 5.49 years in the moderate and severe renal impairment cohort, respectively. Overall, 184 patients (20.3%) underwent further contrast-enhanced MRI with other gadolinium-based contrast agents within the 2-year follow-up. No patient developed symptoms conclusive of NSF.
Conclusions: No safety concerns with gadobutrol in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment were identified. There were no NSF cases.
BACKGROUND: The analysis of microarray time series promises a deeper insight into the dynamics of the cellular response following stimulation. A common observation in this type of data is that some genes respond with quick, transient dynamics, while other genes change their expression slowly over time. The existing methods for detecting significant expression dynamics often fail when the expression dynamics show a large heterogeneity. Moreover, these methods often cannot cope with irregular and sparse measurements.
RESULTS: The method proposed here is specifically designed for the analysis of perturbation responses. It combines different scores to capture fast and transient dynamics as well as slow expression changes, and performs well in the presence of low replicate numbers and irregular sampling times. The results are given in the form of tables including links to figures showing the expression dynamics of the respective transcript. These allow to quickly recognise the relevance of detection, to identify possible false positives and to discriminate early and late changes in gene expression. An extension of the method allows the analysis of the expression dynamics of functional groups of genes, providing a quick overview of the cellular response. The performance of this package was tested on microarray data derived from lung cancer cells stimulated with epidermal growth factor (EGF).
CONCLUSION: Here we describe a new, efficient method for the analysis of sparse and heterogeneous time course data with high detection sensitivity and transparency. It is implemented as R package TTCA (transcript time course analysis) and can be installed from the Comprehensive R Archive Network, CRAN. The source code is provided with the Additional file 1.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda has been characterized as unpredictable, unprecedented and – after a telling neologism of the president himself – unpresidented. In this blog post I will argue that the constituent parts of Trump’s foreign policy are all but new. What is new is their combination. Moreover, while Trump’s Jeffersonianism-Jacksonianism stands in stark contrast to the Wilsonianism-Hamiltonianism that Hillary Clinton embraced during her election campaign, it is only a partial departure from Barack Obama’s Jeffersonianism-Hamiltonianism.
Das Yin und Yang des Terrors
(2017)
Man stelle sich folgendes Szenario vor: Björn Höcke und Abū Bakr al-Baġdādī diskutieren bei Sandra Maischberger darüber, welche Konsequenzen Deutschland aus dem islamistischen Terrorismus ziehen sollte – und sie sind sich dabei einig.
Die Fiktion mag hanebüchen klingen. Nicht nur, weil der Möchtegern-Kalif des „Islamischen Staats“ (IS) unter keinen Umständen als Gast einer deutschen Talkshow in Erscheinung treten könnte – oder auch nur wollte. Sondern auch, weil der Möchtegern-Goebbels aus Thüringen sich stets als ritterlicher Gegner der Islamisten präsentiert, deren Denken und Handeln völlig unvereinbar sei mit dem Willen des hiesigen Volkes, den die Rechtspopulisten zu repräsentieren meinen. Gleicht man allerdings die (migrations-)politischen Willensbekundungen, die AFD und Co. als Antwort auf den islamistischen Terror bieten, ab mit den politischen Reaktionen, die sich der IS von Anschlägen in Europa erhofft, fällt es schwer, hier einen Widerspruch zu sehen. Vielmehr lässt ein solcher Abgleich die deutschen – und auch europäischen – Rechtspopulisten, für die Höcke hier stellvertretend steht, fast schon als heimliche Partner des IS erscheinen, deren Absichten sich bestens mit den Vorstellungen der IS-Strategen ergänzen.
Damit ist ein dialektisches Problem angesprochen, das dem Umgang mit dem Terrorismus stets inhärent ist. Immerhin gehört es zu den Binsenweisheiten der Konfliktforschung, dass terroristische Akteure Reaktionen provozieren wollen, die ihnen neue Handlungsmöglichkeiten eröffnen. Und dies wiederum verweist darauf, dass Politiker und Sicherheitsbehörden, aber auch die Medien dabei (ungewollt) zu Erfüllungsgehilfen werden können, wenn deren Reflexe dem terroristischen Kalkül entsprechen. Die Dynamik des Terrors speist sich eben nicht nur aus den Aktionen der Terroristen, sondern auch aus dem Verhalten ihrer Antagonisten und der Öffentlichkeit. Um jene Dynamik zu verstehen, reicht daher der Blick auf terroristische Strategien keineswegs aus. Vielmehr ist deren Effekt von den Reaktionen relationaler Akteure abhängig. Wer also dem Terrorismus das Wasser abgraben will, der muss – so paradox das klingt – auch Vorsicht gegenüber denen walten lassen, die Anstoß an ihm nehmen.
Diese Prämisse eröffnet eine kritische Perspektive auf Formen des Anti-Terrorismus. Denn demnach können Versuche, dem Terror die Stirn zu bieten, unbeabsichtigte (Neben-)Folgen mit sich bringen, welche die Dynamik des Terrors verstärken. Derartige backfire mechanisms sind es, die in diesem Beitrag problematisiert werden. Jedoch widmet er sich nicht der staatlichen Antiterrorpolitik, sondern erörtert, inwiefern das Zusammenspiel von Medien und Rechtspopulismus zur aktuellen Dynamik des islamistischen Terrorismus beiträgt. Diese Frage stellt sich vor dem Hintergrund, dass die jüngsten Anschläge in Europa eine virtuelle Form des Terrorismus darstellen, wo häufig Einzelpersonen im Namen des IS agieren, aber kaum bis gar nicht im Kontakt mit der Organisation standen. Es scheint daher die Vermutung nicht abwegig, dass co-konstitutive Faktoren – wie die Berichterstattung über den Terror und anti-muslimische Diskurse – eine nicht unbedeutende Rolle bei deren Radikalisierung und Aktivierung spielen.
In this meeting report, particularly addressing the topic of protection of the cardiovascular system from ischemia/reperfusion injury, highlights are presented that relate to conditioning strategies of the heart with respect to molecular mechanisms and outcome in patients’ cohorts, the influence of co-morbidities and medications, as well as the contribution of innate immune reactions in cardioprotection. Moreover, developmental or systems biology approaches bear great potential in systematically uncovering unexpected components involved in ischemia–reperfusion injury or heart regeneration. Based on the characterization of particular platelet integrins, mitochondrial redox-linked proteins, or lipid-diol compounds in cardiovascular diseases, their targeting by newly developed theranostics and technologies opens new avenues for diagnosis and therapy of myocardial infarction to improve the patients’ outcome.
Gleichstellungs-Monitor 2013
(2014)
Der vorliegende Text ist ein Bericht über die Ergebnisse einer qualitativen empirischen Befragung, die im Herbst 2015 in Haushalten eines Quartiers der Stadt Qingdao in China im Rahmen des BMBF-Projekts SEMIZENTRAL durchgeführt wurde. Das Gesamtprojekt umfasst die erstmalige Realisierung eines Resource Recovery Centers (RRC) als flexibles System mit Wasserrückgewinnung und Wiederverwertung in einer schnell wachsenden Stadt. Das Fachgebiet Abwassertechnik am Institut IWAR der Technischen Universität Darmstadt leitet das Projekt. Das ISOE ist Partner im Forschungsverbund und führt eine Stoffstrom- und eine damit verbundene Vulnerabilitätsanalyse für das Gebiet der Implementierung durch. In diesem Zusammenhang ist es wichtig, Einflussfaktoren des Umgangs mit Wasser und Abwasser durch die Bewohner und Bewohnerinnen zu erfassen. Thematischer Schwerpunkt der Befragung war, welche Alltagspraxis in Bezug auf Wasser und Abwasser die Bewohnerinnen und Bewohner haben und wie sich diese durch den Umzug aus einer traditionellen Dorfstruktur in ein modernes Wohnquartier verändert hat. Gleichzeitig sollte die Bekanntheit und Akzeptanz des Konzepts des RRC empirisch untersucht werden.
Under physiological conditions, endothelial cells and the endothelial nitric oxide (NO) synthase (eNOS) are the main source of NO in the cardiovascular system. However, several other cell types have also been implicated in the NO-dependent regulation of cell function, including erythrocytes. NO derived from red blood cells has been proposed to regulate erythrocyte membrane fluidity, inhibit platelet activation and induce vasodilation in hypoxic areas, but these proposals are highly controversial. In the current issue of Cell Communication and Signaling, an elegant study by Gambaryan et al., assayed NO production by erythrocytes by monitoring the activation of the platelet intracellular NO receptor, soluble guanylyl cyclase, and its downstream kinase protein kinase G. After systematically testing different combinations of erythrocyte/platelet suspensions, the authors found no evidence for platelet soluble guanylyl cyclase/protein kinase G activation by erythrocytes and conclude that erythrocytes do not release biologically active NO to inhibit platelet activation.
Recent advances in basic cardiovascular research as well as their translation into the clinical situation were the focus at the last "New Frontiers in Cardiovascular Research meeting". Major topics included the characterization of new targets and procedures in cardioprotection, deciphering new players and inflammatory mechanisms in ischemic heart disease as well as uncovering microRNAs and other biomarkers as versatile and possibly causal factors in cardiovascular pathogenesis. Although a number of pathological situations such as ischemia-reperfusion injury or atherosclerosis can be simulated and manipulated in diverse animal models, also to challenge new drugs for intervention, patient studies are the ultimate litmus test to obtain unequivocal information about the validity of biomedical concepts and their application in the clinics. Thus, the open and bidirectional exchange between bench and bedside is crucial to advance the field of ischemic heart disease with a particular emphasis of understanding long-lasting approaches in cardioprotection.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We evaluated cerebral white and gray matter changes in patients with iRLS in order to shed light on the pathophysiology of this disease.
METHODS: Twelve patients with iRLS were compared to 12 age- and sex-matched controls using whole-head diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) techniques. Evaluation of the DTI scans included the voxelwise analysis of the fractional anisotropy (FA), radial diffusivity (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD).
RESULTS: Diffusion tensor imaging revealed areas of altered FA in subcortical white matter bilaterally, mainly in temporal regions as well as in the right internal capsule, the pons, and the right cerebellum. These changes overlapped with changes in RD. Voxel-based morphometry did not reveal any gray matter alterations.
CONCLUSIONS: We showed altered diffusion properties in several white matter regions in patients with iRLS. White matter changes could mainly be attributed to changes in RD, a parameter thought to reflect altered myelination. Areas with altered white matter microstructure included areas in the internal capsule which include the corticospinal tract to the lower limbs, thereby supporting studies that suggest changes in sensorimotor pathways associated with RLS.
Molecular cause and functional impact of altered synaptic lipid signaling due to a prg‐1 gene SNP
(2015)
Loss of plasticity-related gene 1 (PRG-1), which regulates synaptic phospholipid signaling, leads to hyperexcitability via increased glutamate release altering excitation/inhibition (E/I) balance in cortical networks. A recently reported SNP in prg-1 (R345T/mutPRG-1) affects ~5 million European and US citizens in a monoallelic variant. Our studies show that this mutation leads to a loss-of-PRG-1 function at the synapse due to its inability to control lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) levels via a cellular uptake mechanism which appears to depend on proper glycosylation altered by this SNP. PRG-1(+/-) mice, which are animal correlates of human PRG-1(+/mut) carriers, showed an altered cortical network function and stress-related behavioral changes indicating altered resilience against psychiatric disorders. These could be reversed by modulation of phospholipid signaling via pharmacological inhibition of the LPA-synthesizing molecule autotaxin. In line, EEG recordings in a human population-based cohort revealed an E/I balance shift in monoallelic mutPRG-1 carriers and an impaired sensory gating, which is regarded as an endophenotype of stress-related mental disorders. Intervention into bioactive lipid signaling is thus a promising strategy to interfere with glutamate-dependent symptoms in psychiatric diseases.
Left ventricular non-compaction cardiomyopathy and left ventricular assist device: a word of caution
(2016)
BACKGROUND: In patients with left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC), implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) may be performed as a bridge to transplantation. In this respect, the particular characteristics of the left ventricular myocardium may represent a challenge.
CASE PRESENTATION: We report a patient with LVNC who required urgent heart transplantation for inflow cannula obstruction nine months after receiving a LVAD. LVAD parameters, echocardiography and examination of the explanted heart suggested changes of left ventricular configuration brought about by LVAD support as the most likely cause of inflow cannula obstruction.
CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that changes experienced by non-compacted myocardium during LVAD support may give rise to inflow cannula obstruction and flow reduction. Presence of LVNC mandates tight surveillance for changes in LV configuration and LVAD flow characteristics and may justify urgent transplantation listing status.
The aim of this clinical trial was to evaluate the impact of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) in combination with chemotherapy and to assess the NPM1 status as biomarker for ATRA therapy in younger adult patients (18-60 years) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients were randomized for intensive chemotherapy with or without open-label ATRA (45 mg/m2, days 6-8; 15 mg/m2, days 9-21). Two cycles of induction therapy were followed by risk-adapted consolidation with high-dose cytarabine or allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Due to the open label character of the study, analysis was performed on an intention-to-treat (ITT) and a per-protocol (PP) basis. One thousand one hundred patients were randomized (556, STANDARD; 544, ATRA) with 38 patients treated vice versa. Median follow-up for survival was 5.2 years. ITT analyses revealed no difference between ATRA and STANDARD for the total cohort and for the subset of NPM1-mutated AML with respect to event-free (EFS; p = 0.93, p = 0.17) and overall survival (OS; p = 0.24 and p = 0.32, respectively). Pre-specified PP analyses revealed better EFS in NPM1-mutated AML (p = 0.05) and better OS in the total cohort (p = 0.03). Explorative subgroup analyses on an ITT basis revealed better OS (p = 0.05) in ATRA for genetic low-risk patients according to ELN recommendations. The clinical trial is registered at clinicaltrialsregister.eu (EudraCT Number: 2004-004321-95).
Cl(-) plays a crucial role in neuronal function and synaptic inhibition. However, the impact of neuronal morphology on the diffusion and redistribution of intracellular Cl(-) is not well understood. The role of spines in Cl(-) diffusion along dendritic trees has not been addressed so far. Because measuring fast and spatially restricted Cl(-) changes within dendrites is not yet technically possible, we used computational approaches to predict the effects of spines on Cl(-) dynamics in morphologically complex dendrites. In all morphologies tested, including dendrites imaged by super-resolution STED microscopy in live brain tissue, spines slowed down longitudinal Cl(-) diffusion along dendrites. This effect was robust and could be observed in both deterministic as well as stochastic simulations. Cl(-) extrusion altered Cl(-) diffusion to a much lesser extent than the presence of spines. The spine-dependent slowing of Cl(-) diffusion affected the amount and spatial spread of changes in the GABA reversal potential thereby altering homosynaptic as well as heterosynaptic short-term ionic plasticity at GABAergic synapses in dendrites. Altogether, our results suggest a fundamental role of dendritic spines in shaping Cl(-) diffusion, which could be of relevance in the context of pathological conditions where spine densities and neural excitability are perturbed.
Der jeweilige Betrugsbegriff kristallisiert sich in der Interpretation des § 263 StGB. Obwohl die Vorschrift seit 1875 existiert, hat sich ihre Interpretation von Epoche zu Epoche und in einer Reihe von Aspekten geändert. Die sich so entwickelten Betrugsbegriffe sind nicht frei von Vagheit und Widersprüchen.
Mittels einer Analyse der Rechtsprechung des Reichsgerichts und des Bundesgerichtshofs zwischen 1879 und 1979 arbeite ich heraus, welche ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen und Tendenzen die sich verändernden Betrugsbegriffe bestimmen. Dabei werden nicht nur juristische Argumente analysiert, die Urteilsgründe, sondern auch die Sachverhaltsdarstellungen mit Blick auf die gesellschaftlichen und ökonomischen Positionen der Beteiligten und Betroffenen und ihrer Beziehungen. So können auch latente Aspekte der Begriffe aufgefunden und explizit gemacht werden. Es wird gezeigt, dass einige Formen von Täuschung und Manipulation, im wesentlichen durch Werbung, aus dem Betrugsbegriff ausgenommen werden ebenso wie einige Formen von Vermögensbeschädigung, während auf der anderen Seite Schäden einbezogen werden, die nicht wirklich Vermögensschäden sind
Es wird auch gezeigt, dass der Wandel des politischen Regimes die Rechtsprechung und ihren Betrugsbegriff beeinflusst.
Die Analyse wird mittels qualitativer und quantitativer Inhaltsanalyse vorgenommen. Außerdem entwickle ich einen Betrugsbegriff der mit einer konstitutionellen Demokratie eher vereinbar ist. Die Untersuchung wurde zwischen 1981 und 1983 vorgenommen, das Buch 1985 veröffentlicht, was hier unverändert herausgegeben wird.