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The pressure on tax haven countries to engage in tax information exchange shows first effects on capital markets. Empirical research suggests that investors do react to information exchange and partially withdraw from previous secrecy jurisdictions that open up to information exchange. While some of the economic literature emphasizes possible positive effects of tax havens, the present paper argues that proponents of positive effects may have started from questionable premises, in particular when it comes to the effects that tax havens have for emerging markets like China and India.
Using fiscal reaction functions for 3a panel of actual euro-area countries the paper investigates whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to increases in the level of inherited debt compared to the period prior to succession to the euro. While we find some evidence for such a loss in prudence, the results are not robust to changes in the specification, as for example an exclusion of Greece from the panel. This suggests that the current debt problems may result to a large extent from pre-existing debt levels prior to entry or from a larger need for fiscal prudence in a common currency, while an adverse change in the fiscal reaction functions for most countries does not apply.
The paper uses fiscal reaction functions for a panel of euro-area countries to investigate whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to shocks in the level of inherited debt compared to the period prior to succession to the euro. While we find some evidence for such a loss in prudence, the results are not robust to changes in the specification, such as an exclusion of Greece from the panel. This suggests that the current debt problems may result to a large extent from preexisting debt levels prior to entry or from a larger need for fiscal prudence in a common currency, while an adverse change in the fiscal reaction functions for most countries does not apply.
How to be a good European...
(2010)
Unter der Überschrift "Ich kaufe griechische Staatsanleihen weil..." sollten Persönlichkeiten aus Politik, Wirtschaft und Kultur kurz begründen, warum sie griechische Staatsanleihen gekauft haben bzw. kaufen werden--idealerweise unter Nachweis ihres finanziellen Engagements. Zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt kaufe ich keine griechischen Staatsanleihen...
This contribution draws on two recent publications in which the macroeconomic model data base (www.macromodelbase.com) is employed for model comparisons. The comparative approach is used to base policy analysis on a systematic evaluation of the different implications that a certain economic policy can have when submitted to different modeling approaches. In this manner, policy recommendations are more robust to modeling uncertainty. By extending the comparative approach to forecasting, the authors investigate the accuracy of different forecasting models and obtain more reliable mean forecasts.
This paper studies the long-run effects of credit market disruptions on real firm outcomes and how these effects depend on nominal wage rigidities at the firm level. I trace out the long-run investment and growth trajectories of firms which are more adversely affected by a transitory shock to aggregate credit supply. Affected firms exhibit a temporary investment gap for two years following the shock, resulting in a persistent accumulated growth gap. I show that affected firms with a higher degree of wage rigidity exhibit a steeper drop in investment and grow more slowly than affected firms with more flexible wages.
Large companies are increasingly on trial. Over the last decade, many of the world’s biggest firms have been embroiled in legal disputes over corruption charges, financial fraud, environmental damage, taxation issues or sanction violations, ending in convictions or settlements of record-breaking fines, well above the billion-dollar mark. For critics of globalization, this turn towards corporate accountability is a welcome sea-change showing that multinational companies are no longer above the law. For legal experts, the trend is noteworthy because of the extraterritorial dimensions of law enforcement, as companies are increasingly held accountable for activities independent of their nationality or the place of the activities. Indeed, the global trend required understanding the evolution of corporate criminal law enforcement in the United States in particular, where authorities have skillfully expanded its effective jurisdiction beyond its territory. This paper traces the evolution of corporate prosecutions in the United States. Analyzing federal prosecution data, it then shows that foreign firms are more likely to pay a fine, which is on average 6,6 times larger.
One of the motivations for establishing a European banking union was the desire to break the ties with between national regulators and domestic financial institutions in order to prevent regulatory capture. However, supervisory authority over the financial sector at the national level can also have valuable public benefits. The aim of this policy letter is to detail these public benefits in order to counter discussions that focus only on conflicts of interest. It is informed by an analysis of how financial institutions interacted with policy-makers in the design of national bank rescue schemes in response to the banking crisis of 2008. Using this information, it discusses the possible benefits of close cooperation between financial institutions and regulators and analyzes these in the wake of a European banking union.
With free delivery of products virtually being a standard in E-commerce, product returns pose a major challenge for online retailers and society. For retailers, product returns involve significant transportation, labor, disposal, and administrative costs. From a societal perspective, product returns contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and packaging disposal and are often a waste of natural resources. Therefore, reducing product returns has become a key challenge. This paper develops and validates a novel smart green nudging approach to tackle the problem of product returns during customers’ online shopping processes. We combine a green nudge with a novel data enrichment strategy and a modern causal machine learning method. We first run a large-scale randomized field experiment in the online shop of a German fashion retailer to test the efficacy of a novel green nudge. Subsequently, we fuse the data from about 50,000 customers with publicly-available aggregate data to create what we call enriched digital footprints and train a causal machine learning system capable of optimizing the administration of the green nudge. We report two main findings: First, our field study shows that the large-scale deployment of a simple, low-cost green nudge can significantly reduce product returns while increasing retailer profits. Second, we show how a causal machine learning system trained on the enriched digital footprint can amplify the effectiveness of the green nudge by “smartly” administering it only to certain types of customers. Overall, this paper demonstrates how combining a low-cost marketing instrument, a privacy-preserving data enrichment strategy, and a causal machine learning method can create a win-win situation from both an environmental and economic perspective by simultaneously reducing product returns and increasing retailers’ profits.
Biodiversity loss poses a significant threat to the global economy and affects ecosystem services on which most large companies rely heavily. The severe financial implications of such a reduced species diversity have attracted the attention of companies and stakeholders, with numerous calls to increase corporate transparency. Using textual analysis, this study thus investigates the current state of voluntary biodiversity reporting of 359 European blue-chip companies and assesses the extent to which it aligns with the upcoming disclosure framework of the Task Force on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). The descriptive results suggest a substantial gap between current reporting practices and the proposed TNFD framework, with disclosures largely lacking quantification, details and clear targets. In addition, the disclosures appear to be relatively unstandardized. Companies in sectors or regions exposed to higher nature-related risks as well as larger companies are more likely to report on aspects of biodiversity. This study contributes to the emerging literature on nature-related risks and provides detailed insights on the extent of the reporting gap in light of the upcoming standards.
This paper is the first to conduct an incentive-compatible experiment using real monetary payoffs to test the hypothesis of probabilistic insurance which states that willingness to pay for insurance decreases sharply in the presence of even small default probabilities as compared to a risk-free insurance contract. In our experiment, 181 participants state their willingness to pay for insurance contracts with different levels of default risk. We find that the willingness to pay sharply decreases with increasing default risk. Our results hence strongly support the hypothesis of probabilistic insurance. Furthermore, we study the impact of customer reaction to default risk on an insurer’s optimal solvency level using our experimentally obtained data on insurance demand. We show that an insurer should choose to be default-free rather than having even a very small default probability. This risk strategy is also optimal when assuming substantial transaction costs for risk management activities undertaken to achieve the maximum solvency level.
SAFE Newsletter : 2016, Q3
(2016)
SAFE Newsletter : 2016, Q4
(2016)
Editorial: Michael Heise : The Chief Economist of Allianz SE about the economic outlook for 2011 Research Finance: Andreas Hackethal, Utpal Bhattacharya, Benjamin Loos, Simon Kaesler, Steffen Meyer : "Unbiased Financial Advice – Wanted but not Followed" Research Law: Katja Langenbucher : "Insider Trading in Europe" Research Money/Macro: Thomas Laubach, Michael U. Krause, Matthias Hoffmann : "Long-Run Growth Expectations and Current Account Balances" Policy Platform: Heinz Hilgert, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Günther Merl, Helmut Siekmann : "Proposal for a Reorganisation of the German Landesbanks and Savings Banks Sector" Interview: Viral V. Acharya : "The Dodd-Frank Act Leaves a Lot to be Desired"
Editorial: Jürgen Stark : The ECB's Chief Economist about inflation targeting, liquidity support and the sovereign debt crisis Research Finance: Yulia Plyakha, Raman Uppal, Grigory Vilkov : "Why Does the Equally Weighted Portfolio Outperform the Value and Price Weighted Portfolios?" Research Law: Manfred Wandt : "Legal Objectives of the Solvency II Framework Directive" Research E-Finance: Roman Beck, Timm Pintner, Martin Wolf : "Individual Mindfulness to Mitigate Information Overload within Financial Organizations" Policy Platform: Peter Gomber, Björn Arndt, Marco Lutat, Tim Uhle : "Regulation of High-Frequency Trading – A European Perspective" Interview: Norbert Walter : "The Risko of Compromising on Price Stability Must not be Taken"
Editorial: Jens Weidmann : "Central Banks and Monetary Policy after the Crisis" Research Finance: Holger Kraft,Claus Munk : "Optimal Housing, Consumption, and Investment Decisions over the Life Cycle" Research Money/Macro: Ester Faia, Eleni Iliopulos : "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy" Research Law: Andreas Cahn, D. Schöneberger : "Shareholder Governance in Europe" Policy Platform: Michael Haliassos, Dimitri Vayanos : "Getting Greece Back on Track: How?" Interview: Raimond Maurer, Ralph Rogalla : "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions"
House of Finance
(2010)
1 Editorial ; 2 Increased Disclosure Requirements for the Supervisory Boards of Stock Corporations ; 3 Can Facebook Predict Stock Market Activity? ; 4 Combining Structured and Unstructured Data :Sources for Support in Financial Decision Making ; 5 Liikanen Commission makes proposals for an efficient and sustainable financial system ; 6 INTERVIEW: What Economists Can Learn from Neuroscientists ; 7 News ; 8 Selected Research and Policy Publications
Parallel Banking – Frankfurt Can Bring some Light into the Darkness_3
THOMAS SCHÄFER
Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis_4
ALEXANDER BICK | STEPHANIE KREMER | DIETER NAUTZ
Who Benefits from Building Insurance Groups?_6
SEBASTIAN SCHLÜTTER | HELMUT GRÜNDL
IT Innovation: Mindfully Resisting the Bandwagon_8
ROMAN BECK | WOLFGANG KÖNIG | IMMANUEL PAHLKE | MARTIN WOLF
“The Part-Time Master in Finance is GBS' Answer to the Bologna Process”_10
UWE WALZ
House of Finance Wins New LOEWE Center_12
0 Home ; 1 Editorial ; 2 Do Information Rents in Loan Spreads Persist over the Business Cycle? ; 3 Regulation of Executive Pay in Germany - Perspectives of Optimal Contracting and Managerial Power ; 4 Linking Customer and Financial Metrics to Shareholder Value ; 5 Policy Platform: Recommendations for the Regulation of Shadow Banking ; 6 INTERVIEW – Lars-Hendrik Röller: "Theory Needs to Address the Right Kind of Policy Questions" ; 7 News ; 8 Selected Research and Policy Publications
Editorial : Andreas Dombret "Regulating Systemically Important Financial Institutions is Vitally Important" ; Research Money/Macro : Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Michael Haliassos "International Portfolio Differences: Environment versus Characteristics" ; Research Finance : Raimond Maurer, Ralph Rogalla, Yuanyuan Shen "Optimal Asset Allocation in Retirement with Open-end Real Estate Funds" ; Research Law : Theodor Baums "Shareholder Suits in German Company Law – An Empirical Study" ; Policy Platform : Helmut Siekmann, Patrick Tuschl "Constitutional Ruling on Court of Auditors' Review of Banks" ; Interview : Michael S. Barr "Information Does not Necessarily Lead to Understanding"
SAFE Newsletter : 2018, Q4
(2018)
SAFE Newsletter : 2013, Q3
(2013)
Research: Joachim Weber, Benjamin Loos, Steffen Meyer, Andreas Hackethal "Individual Investors' Trading Motives and Security Selling Behavior"
Ignazio Angeloni, Ester Faia "Monetary Policy and Prudential Regulations with Bank Runs"
Helmut Siekmann "Legal Limits to Quantitative Easing"
Policy Margit Vanberg "SAFE Summer Academy 2013 on 'International Financial Stability'"
Guest Commentary Peter Praet "Cooperation between the ECB and Academia"
SAFE Newsletter : 2013, Q2
(2013)
Against the background of the European debt crisis, the Research Center SAFE, in the fall of 2013, had issued a call for papers on the topic “Austerity and Economic Growth: Concepts for Europe”, with the objective of soliciting research proposals focusing on the nature of the relationship between austerity, debt sustainability and growth. Each of the five funded projects brought forth an academic paper and a shortened, non-technical policy brief. These policy papers are presented in the present collection of policy letters, edited by Alfons Weichenrieder.
The first paper by Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi looks into the question of how fiscal consolidations influence the real economy. Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt emphasize that fiscal austerity is a signal that investors use to tell apart governments with high and low default costs that accordingly will have a high or low probability of repayment.The paper by Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller and Johannes Pfeiffer,looks at the impact of austerity measures on government bond spreads. Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor, in the fourth contribution, put into question whether the narrative records of fiscal consolidation plans are really exogenous. The final study by Enrique Mendoza, Linda Tesar and Jing Zhang suggests that fiscal consolidation should largely depend on expenditure cuts, rather than tax increases that may fail, when fiscal space is exhausted.
SAFE Newsletter : 2015, Q2
(2015)
SAFE Newsletter : 2015, Q4
(2015)
SAFE Newsletter : 2015, Q3
(2015)
SAFE Newsletter : 2016, Q2
(2016)
SAFE Newsletter : 2015, Q1
(2015)
SAFE Newsletter : 2016, Q1
(2016)
SAFE Newsletter : 2014, Q4
(2014)
SAFE Newsletter : 2017, Q3
(2017)
SAFE Newsletter : 2019, Q2
(2019)
SAFE Newsletter : 2019, Q3
(2019)
SAFE Newsletter : 2019, Q1
(2019)
SAFE Newsletter : 2019, Q4
(2019)
SAFE Newsletter : 2018, Q1
(2018)
SAFE Newsletter : 2018, Q3
(2018)
SAFE Newsletter : 2018, Q2
(2018)
SAFE Newsletter : 2013, Q1
(2013)
SAFE Newsletter : 2014, Q2
(2014)