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Appropriate precautions in the case of flood occurrence often require long lead times (several days) in hydrological forecasting. This in turn implies large uncertainties that are mainly inherited from the meteorological precipitation forecast. Here we present a case study of the extreme flood event of August 2005 in the Swiss part of the Rhine catchment (total area 34 550 km2). This event caused tremendous damage and was associated with precipitation amounts and flood peaks with return periods beyond 10 to 100 years. To deal with the underlying intrinsic predictability limitations, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS that downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. We document the setup of the coupled system and assess its performance for the flood event under consideration. We show that the probabilistic meteorological-hydrological ensemble prediction chain is quite effective and provides additional guidance for extreme event forecasting, in comparison to a purely deterministic forecasting system. For the case studied, it is also shown that most of the benefits of the probabilistic approach may be realized with a comparatively small ensemble size of 10 members.
A mild synthetic method for N-formyl-Met-Leu-Phe-OH (1) is described. After Fmoc solid phase peptide synthesis, on-bead formylation and HPLC purification, more than 30 mg of the fully 13C/15N-labelled tripeptide 1 could be isolated in a typical batch. This peptide can be easily crystallised and is therefore well suited as a standard sample for setting up solid-state NMR experiments.
In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference.
The Late Tertiary to Quaternary evolution of the Ntem interior delta in SW Cameroon shall be modelled. A step fault was formed along neotectonically remobilized Precambrian structures. Uncalibrated 14C-datations in this ‘sediment trap’ show Pleistocene to Holocene ages. Both within and below the interior delta pebbles and clasts which are cemented in an iron and manganese matrix were found. These ‘fanglomerates’ are used to discuss different processes of the younger evolution also concerning climatic fluctuations in the study area.
A high-precision pressure probe is described which allows non-invasive online-monitoring of the water relations of intact leaves. Real-time recording of the leaf water status occurred by data transfer to an Internet server. The leaf patch clamp pressure probe measures the attenuated pressure, Pp, of a leaf patch in response to a constant clamp pressure, Pclamp. Pp is sensed by a miniaturized silicone pressure sensor integrated into the device. The magnitude of Pp is dictated by the transfer function of the leaf, Tf, which is a function of leaf patch volume and ultimately of cell turgor pressure, Pc, as shown theoretically. The power function Tf=f(Pc) theoretically derived was experimentally confirmed by concomitant Pp and Pc measurements on intact leaflets of the liana Tetrastigma voinierianum under greenhouse conditions. Simultaneous Pp recordings on leaflets up to 10 m height above ground demonstrated that changes in Tf induced by Pc changes due to changes of microclimate and/or of the irrigation regime were sensitively reflected in corresponding changes of Pp. Analysis of the data show that transpirational water loss during the morning hours was associated with a transient rise in turgor pressure gradients within the leaflets. Subsequent recovery of turgescence during the afternoon was much faster than the preceding transpiration-induced water loss if the plants were well irrigated. Our data show the enormous potential of the leaf patch clamp pressure probe for leaf water studies including unravelling of the hydraulic communication between neighbouring leaves and over long distances within tall plants (trees).
A new species, Aiolopus obariensis sp. n., is described and illustrated from Fezzan Province, Libya. Besides other differentiating characters, the new species is characterized by having a conspicuously short and club-shaped left antenna. A description and a key to Libyan species of Aiolopus Fieber is provided. Some additional characters of male and female genitalia have also been incorporated.
The miscanthus mealybug, Miscanthicoccus miscanthi (Takahashi) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is newly reported as prey for the lady beetle Hyperaspis paludicola Schwarz (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) at the Regan National Airport, Washington, DC (northern range extension). A new armored scale prey, Diaspidiotus ancyclus (Putnam) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), for the lady beetle Microweisea misella (LeConte) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is recorded. A range extension for Hyperaspis paludicola is reported.
Australophanus, new genus, is described and illustrated for Cryptamorpha redtenbacheri (Reitter). Platamus Erichson is synonymized under Telephanus Erichson, new synonymy. Euplatamus Sharp, new status, replaces Platamus Erichson as the genus name. Type species are designated for Aplatamus Grouvelle and Euplatamus Sharp. Telephanus velox (Haldeman) is synonymized under Telephanus atricapillus Erichson. A diagnosis of the tribe Telephanini, a key to the described telephanine genera of the world is presented, and a phylogeny of the family Silvanidae is proposed.
Synchronized neural activity in the visual cortex is associated with small time delays (up to ~10 ms). The magnitude and direction of these delays depend on stimulus properties. Thus, synchronized neurons produce fast sequences of action potentials, and the order in which units tend to fire within these sequences is stimulusdependent, but not stimulus-locked. In the present thesis, I investigated whether such preferred firing sequences repeat with sufficient accuracy to serve as a neuronal code. To this end, I developed a method for extracting the preferred sequence of firing in a group of neurons from their pair-wise preferred delays, as measured by the offsets of the centre peaks in their cross-correlation histograms. This analysis method was then applied to highly parallel recordings of neuronal spiking activity made in area 17 of anaesthetized cats in response to simple visual stimuli, like drifting gratings and moving bars. Using a measure of effect size, I then analyzed the accuracy with which preferred firing sequences reflected stimulus properties, and found that in the presence of gamma oscillations, the time at which a unit fired in the firing sequence conveyed stimulus information almost as precisely as the firing rate of the same unit. Moreover, the stimulus-dependent changes in firing rates and firing times were largely unrelated, suggesting that the information they carry is not redundant. Thus, despite operating at a time scale of only a few milliseconds, firing sequences have the strong potential to provide a precise neural code that can complement firing rates in the cortical processing of stimulus information.
This is a story about a house with a history and about the people who lived or worked there. It captures something of the spirit of the times in the worlds of politics and development, and it discusses the links which were established between Oxfam GB in Zambia and the African National Congress of South Africa.
A graph theoretical approach to the analysis, comparison, and enumeration of crystal structures
(2008)
As an alternative approach to lattices and space groups, this work explores graph theory as a means to model crystal structures. The approach uses quotient graphs and nets - the graph theoretical equivalent of cells and lattices - to represent crystal structures. After a short review of related work, new classes of cycles in nets are introduced and their ability to distinguish between non-isomorphic nets and their computational complexity are evaluated. Then, two methods to estimate a structure’s density from the corresponding net are proposed. The first uses coordination sequences to estimate the number of nodes in a sphere, whereas the second method determines the maximal volume of a unit cell. Based on the quotient graph only, methods are proposed to determine whether nets consist of islands, chains, planes, or penetrating, disconnected sub-nets. An algorithm for the enumeration of crystal structures is revised and extended to a search for structures possessing certain properties. Particular attention is given to the exclusion of redundant nets and those, which, by the nature of their connectivity, cannot correspond to a crystal structure. Nets with four four-coordinated nodes, corresponding to sp3 hybridised carbon polymorphs with four atoms per unit cell, are completely enumerated in order to demonstrate the approach. In order to render quotient graphs and nets independent from crystal structures, they are reintroduced in a purely graph-theoretical way. Based on this, the issue of iso- and automorphism of nets is reexamined. It is shown that the topology of a net (that is the bonds in a crystal) constrains severely the symmetry of the embedding (that is the crystal), and in the case of connected nets the space group except for the setting. Several examples are studied and conclusions on phases are drawn (pseudo-cubic FeS2 versus pyrite; α- versus β- quartz; marcasite- versus rutile-like phases). As the automorphisms of certain quotient graphs stipulate a translational symmetry higher than an arbitrary embedding of the corresponding net would show, they are examined in more detail and a method to reduce the size of such quotient graphs is proposed. Besides two instructional examples with 2-dimensional graphs, the halite, calcite, magnesite, barytocalcite, and a strontium feldspar structures are discussed. For some of the structures it is shown that the quotient graph which is equivalent to a centred cell is reduced to a quotient graph equivalent to the primitive cell. For the partially disordered strontium feldspar, it is shown that even if it could be annealed to an ordered structure, the unit cell would likely remain unchanged. For the calcite and barytocalcite structures it is shown that the equivalent nets are not isomorphic.
A glimpse of the tropics : spiders (Araneae) in the greenhouses of the Botanic Garden Berlin-Dahlem
(2008)
In a survey of the spider fauna in greenhouses of the Botanic Garden Berlin-Dahlem, 30 spider species were recorded. Two species are new to Europe: Theotima minutissima (Petrunkevitch, 1929) and Heteroonops spinimanus (Simon, 1891). T. minutissima is the first member of the family Ochyroceratidae reported from Europe. Oecobius navus Blackwall, 1859 is new to Central Europe. Triaeris stenaspis Simon, 1891, is recorded from Germany for the first time. Zodarion italicum (Canestrini, 1868) is new to eastern Germany. Despite the discovery of some species previously unknown to Germany, the spider fauna in the Botanic Garden consisted mainly of wellknown synanthropic species and common inhabitants of greenhouses. Several alien spiders recently found in greenhouses, garden centers and houses were not recorded in the Botanic Garden. The species composition of the exotic spider fauna in greenhouses seems to depend chiefly on the specific modes of acquisition of plants and plant substrate.
The distribution of linguistic structures in the world is the joint product of universal principles, inheritance from ancestor languages, language contact, social structures, and random fluctuation. This paper proposes a method for evaluating the relative significance of each factor — and in particular, of universal principles — via regression modeling: statistical evidence for universal principles is found if the odds for families to have skewed responses (e.g. all or most members have postnominal relative clauses) as opposed to having an opposite response skewing or no skewing at all, is significantly higher for some condition (e.g. VO order) than for another condition, independently of other factors.