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The comparison of persons is pervasive in social judgement and human decision making and yet its neural substrate is poorly explored. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we investigated the brain activities of participants comparing other persons with each other (other vs. other comparison - OOC) and with themselves (self vs. other comparison - SOC) as regards psychological (intelligence) and physical (height) characteristics. We found that the comparison of these two person characteristics differ in their neural activation patterns in the OOC as well as in the SOC with higher activity increases for intelligence than height comparison in several areas in medial frontal and orbitofrontal cortex and posterior cingulate cortex suggesting that their activation scales with the demand on person comparison. The person comparison network strikingly overlaps the one commonly described for the classic theory of mind tasks. We interpret this overlap as indicating perspective taking common to person comparison and theory of mind. Furthermore, we suggest that the neural differences between the SOC and the OOC especially in the dorsal part of the medial frontal cortex rely on the different degree of the self involved in the two types of comparisons. The results additionally suggest that the decision directions of self-relevant comparisons, especially in the intelligence comparison of the SOC, resulted in differences in the activation of the medial frontal cortex, which also relies on differences in the reward anticipation and self-relatedness of these decisions.
Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 : impact on Frankfurt in due consideration of health care and public health
(2010)
Background: In April 2009 a novel influenza A H1N1/2009 virus was identified in Mexico and in the United States which quickly spread around the world. Most of the countries established infection surveillance systems in order to track the number of (laboratory-confirmed) H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Methods: The impact of the emergence of the novel pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus on Frankfurt was statistically evaluated by the Health Protection Authority, City of Frankfurt am Main. Vaccination rates of the health care workers (HCWs) of the University Hospital Frankfurt were measured by the Occupational Health Service. Results: Although the virulence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 seems to be comparable with seasonal influenza, a major patient load and wave of hospital admissions occurred in the summer of 2009. Even though the 2009 vaccination rate of the University Hospital Frankfurt (seasonal influenza [40.5%], swine flu [36.3%]) is better than the average annual uptake of influenza vaccine in the German health care system (approximately 22% for seasonal and 15% for swine flu), vaccination levels remain insufficient. However, physicians were significantly (p < 0.001) more likely to have been vaccinated against swine flu and seasonal influenza than nurses. Conclusions: The outbreak of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in April 2009 provided a major challenge to health services around the world. Nosocomial transmission of H1N1/2009 has been documented. Present experience should be used to improve pandemic preparedness plans and vaccination programs ought to target as many HCWs as possible.
Due to an increasing awareness of the potential hazardousness of air pollutants, new laws, rules and guidelines have recently been implemented globally. In this respect, numerous studies have addressed traffic-related exposure to particulate matter using stationary technology so far. By contrast, only few studies used the advanced technology of mobile exposure analysis. The Mobile Air Quality Study (MAQS) addresses the issue of air pollutant exposure by combining advanced high-granularity spatial-temporal analysis with vehicle-mounted, person-mounted and roadside sensors. The MAQS-platform will be used by international collaborators in order 1) to assess air pollutant exposure in relation to road structure, 2) to assess air pollutant exposure in relation to traffic density, 3) to assess air pollutant exposure in relation to weather conditions, 4) to compare exposure within vehicles between front and back seat (children) positions, and 5) to evaluate "traffic zone"- exposure in relation to non-"traffic zone"-exposure. Primarily, the MAQS-platform will focus on particulate matter. With the establishment of advanced mobile analysis tools, it is planed to extend the analysis to other pollutants including including NO2, SO2, nanoparticles, and ozone.
Background: Hemorrhagic shock/resuscitation is associated with aberrant neutrophil activation and organ failure. This experimental porcine study was done to evaluate the effects of Fas-directed extracorporeal immune therapy with a leukocyte inhibition module (LIM) on hemodynamics, neutrophil tissue infiltration, and tissue damage after hemorrhagic shock/resuscitation. Methods: In a prospective controlled double-armed animal trial 24 Munich Mini Pigs (30.3 +/- 3.3 kg) were rapidly haemorrhaged to reach a mean arterial pressure (MAP) of 35 +/- 5 mmHg, maintained hypotensive for 45 minutes, and then were resuscitated with Ringer's solution to baseline MAP. With beginning of resuscitation 12 pigs underwent extracorporeal immune therapy for 3 hours (LIM group) and 12 pigs were resuscitated according to standard medical care (SMC). Haemodynamics, haematologic, metabolic, and organ specific damage parameters were monitored. Neutrophil infiltration was analyzed histologically after 48 and 72 hours. Lipid peroxidation, and apoptosis were specifically determined in lung, bowel, and liver. Results: In the LIM group, neutrophil counts were reduced versus SMC during extracorporeal immune therapy. After 72 hours, the haemodynamic parameters MAP and cardiac output (CO) were significantly better in the LIM group. Histological analyses showed reduction of shock-related neutrophil tissue infiltration in the LIM group, especially in the lungs. Lower amounts of apoptotic cells and lipid peroxidation were found in organs after LIM treatment. Conclusions: Transient Fas-directed extracorporeal immune therapy may protect from posthemorrhagic neutrophil tissue infiltration and tissue damage.
Objective: To summarise the benefits and harms of treatments for women with gestational diabetes mellitus. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Data sources: Embase, Medline, AMED, BIOSIS, CCMed, CDMS, CDSR, CENTRAL, CINAHL, DARE, HTA, NHS EED, Heclinet, SciSearch, several publishers’ databases, and reference lists of relevant secondary literature up to October 2009. Review methods: Included studies were randomised controlled trials of specific treatment for gestational diabetes compared with usual care or "intensified" compared with "less intensified" specific treatment. Results: Five randomised controlled trials matched the inclusion criteria for specific versus usual treatment. All studies used a two step approach with a 50 g glucose challenge test or screening for risk factors, or both, and a subsequent 75 g or 100 g oral glucose tolerance test. Meta-analyses did not show significant differences for most single end points judged to be of direct clinical importance. In women specifically treated for gestational diabetes, shoulder dystocia was significantly less common (odds ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.21 to 0.75), and one randomised controlled trial reported a significant reduction of pre-eclampsia (2.5 v 5.5%, P=0.02). For the surrogate end point of large for gestational age infants, the odds ratio was 0.48 (0.38 to 0.62). In the 13 randomised controlled trials of different intensities of specific treatments, meta-analysis showed a significant reduction of shoulder dystocia in women with more intensive treatment (0.31, 0.14 to 0.70). Conclusions: Treatment for gestational diabetes, consisting of treatment to lower blood glucose concentration alone or with special obstetric care, seems to lower the risk for some perinatal complications. Decisions regarding treatment should take into account that the evidence of benefit is derived from trials for which women were selected with a two step strategy (glucose challenge test/screening for risk factors and oral glucose tolerance test).
Feral cats (Felis catus), introduced into Australia with European settlers in the 19th century, colonized the entire Australian continent in less than 100 years, including the Australian arid zone which covers more than 70% of the continent. Feral cats are responsible for the decline and extinction of a number of native species and the failure of a number of reintroduction attempts, especially in the arid zone. Many ecological studies on feral cats have been conducted on home range size and movement patterns in different environments, abundance and diet, with the aim of gaining a better understanding about their successful invasion of the Australian continent. There are no physiological studies on the feral cat to date. However, there is evidence that there is a strong interrelation between physiology and abiotic factors such as climate. Thus, distribution, habitat, and dispersal of species can not fully be understood without background knowledge of physiology. This PhD aims to contribute to a better understanding of three physiological parameters: metabolism, body mass and body temperature patterns. These parameters may possibly identify physiological adaptation to different climate zones, seasonal conditions and island isolation.
Until now, the NW Indian Ocean was sparsely covered with coral proxy records, and records from the Maldives Archipelago do not exist. The first such coral proxy record from the central Maldives is presented in this study. It originates from a massive Porites lutea (Quoy and Gaimard, 1833) colony that was sampled March 2007 in the lagoon of Rasdhoo Atoll (4°N/ 73°W), which is located in the central Maldives. The record spans a period of 90 yrs and reaches back to 1917 AD with monthly to bimonthly resolution. This study investigates temporal variations of the skeletal stable oxygen (delta18O) and carbon (delta13C) isotopes, the strontium-to-calcium (Sr/Ca), and the annual extension-rates, and their relationship to historical climate variations 1917-2007. Annual extension-rates show an increase over the 20th century, and are correlated with instrumental sea surface temperatures (SST). The interannual variation of the extension-rates within 2.5-4 years is driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The amount of skeletal extension during the summer months is triggered by variations in the strength of the SW monsoon. Interannual and decadal variability in monsoon current activity (18-19 yrs) and rainfall over India are an expression of the summer monsoon strength. This is the reason why a statistical link between coral extension-rates and precipitation over India can be established. This implies that annual extension-rates in corals can be used as a new proxy for Indian monsoon variability on decadal resolution. The delta18O record exhibits the 20th century warming trend that is influenced by the effect of monsoon-induced cooling. delta18O also reveals interannual ENSO triggered variability, which is due to ENSO-forced variations in SST and sea surface salinity (SSS). A decadal variation at 12-14 yrs cannot be linked to SST variations in the NW Indian Ocean, but with decadal variations of SSS. They could be caused by ENSO- forced variations of the monsoon currents during the mature phase of ENSO teleconnections in the Indian Ocean in boreal winter. The Sr/Ca record does not indicate a significant warming, in spite of the observed SST rise at the sampling site. Changes in seawater Sr/Ca cannot be excluded. Nevertheless, interannual ENSO forcing is still evident. Evidence for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is found during 1917-1955. Afterwards, the Sr/Ca data indicate the disappearance of PDO forcing. By the combination of Sr/Ca and delta18O it is possible to detect ~80% of historical El Niño and La Niña events at the sample site. This study confirms the notion that interannual to multi-decadal climate fluctuations in the Pacific play a crucial role for climate variability in the Indian Ocean.
In this thesis, we study the properties of excitations in the systems of interacting fermions. These excitations can be bosonic such as collective modes which we handle in the first part of this thesis or fermionic like quasi particles and quasi holes. One of the important points, to investigate the excitations is their damping which corresponds to their life-time in the system. This thesis consists of two parts, where in both parts, we use the field-theoretical methods to examine the problem.
Background: Previously, we showed that glioma pathogenesis related protein (GliPR) is induced in CEM T cells upon HIV-1 infection in vitro. To examine whether GliPR plays a role as HIV dependency factor (HDF), we tested the effect of GliPR suppression by siRNA on HIV-1 replication. Results: Induction of GliPR expression by HIV-1 was confirmed in P4-CCR5 cells. When GliPR was suppressed by siRNA, HIV-1 replication was significantly reduced as measured by HIV-1 transcript levels, HIV-1 p24 protein levels, and HIV-1 LTR-driven reporter gene expression, suggesting that GliPR is a cellular co-factor of HIV-1. Microarray analysis of uninfected HeLa cells following knockdown of GliPR revealed, among a multitude of gene expression alterations, a down-regulation of syndecan-1, syndecan-2, protein kinase C alpha (PRKCA), the catalytic subunit beta of cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PRKACB), nuclear receptor co-activator 3 (NCOA3), and cell surface protein CD59 (protectin), all genes having relevance for HIV-1 pathology. Conclusions: The up-regulation of GliPR by HIV-1 and the early significant inhibition of HIV-1 replication mediated by knockdown of GliPR reveal GliPR as an important HIV-1 dependency factor (HDF), which may be exploited for HIV-1 inhibition.
Background: Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are a group of highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders which are characteristically comprised of impairments in social interaction, communication and restricted interests/behaviours. Several cell adhesion transmembrane leucine-rich repeat (LRR) proteins are highly expressed in the nervous system and are thought to be key regulators of its development. Here we present an association study analysing the roles of four promising candidate genes - LRRTM1 (2p), LRRTM3 (10q), LRRN1 (3p) and LRRN3 (7q) - in order to identify common genetic risk factors underlying ASDs.
Methods: In order to gain a better understanding of how the genetic variation within these four gene regions may influence susceptibility to ASDs, a family-based association study was undertaken in 661 families of European ancestry selected from four different ASD cohorts. In addition, a case-control study was undertaken across the four LRR genes, using logistic regression in probands with ASD of each population against 295 ECACC controls.
Results: Significant results were found for LRRN3 and LRRTM3 (P < 0.005), using both single locus and haplotype approaches. These results were further supported by a case-control analysis, which also highlighted additional SNPs in LRRTM3.
Conclusions: Overall, our findings implicate the neuronal leucine-rich genes LRRN3 and LRRTM3 in ASD susceptibility.
Background: Initiated by a clinical case of critical endotracheal tube (ETT) obstruction, we aimed to determine factors that potentially contribute to the development of endotracheal tube obstruction by its inflated cuff. Prehospital climate and storage conditions were simulated. Methods: Five different disposable ETTs (6.0, 7.0, and 8.0 mm inner diameter) were exposed to ambient outside temperature for 13 months. In addition, every second of these tubes was mechanically stressed by clamping its cuffed end between the covers of a metal emergency case for 10 min. Then, all tubes were heated up to normal body temperature, placed within the cock of a syringe, followed by stepwise inflation of their cuffs to pressures of 3 kPa and >=12 kPa, respectively. The inner lumen of the ETT was checked with the naked eye for any obstruction caused by the external cuff pressure. Results: Neither in tubes that were exposed to ambient temperature (range: -12°C to +44°C) nor in those that were also clamped, visible obstruction by inflated cuffs was detected at any of the two cuff pressure levels. Conclusions: We could not demonstrate a critical obstruction of an ETT by its inflated cuff, neither when the cuff was over-inflated to a pressure of 12 kPa or higher, nor in ETTs that had been exposed to unfavorable storage conditions and significant mechanical stress.
New taxa of Epiphloeinae Kuwert (Cleridae) and Chaetosomatidae Crowson (Coleoptera: Cleroidea)
(2010)
Twenty-one new taxa of Cleridae and one of Chaetosomatidae are described including four new genera: Acanthocollis, Decaphloeus, Megaphloeus, and Stegnoclava. Twenty new species are described: five species of Amboakis Opitz (A. ampla, A. antegalba, A. diffusa, A. demagna, A. waodani, one species of Epiphloeus Spinola (E. erwini), four species of Madoniella Pic (M. aspera, M. darlingtoni, M. divida, M. spilota), two species of Plocamocera Spinola (P. clinata, P. lena), seven species of Pyticeroides Kuwert (P. latisentis, P. moraquesi, P. parvoporis, P. pinnacerinis, P. pullis, P. turbosiris, P. ustulatis), and one species of Chaetosomatidae (Chaetosoma colossa).
The authorship and type species of the genera Acentroptera and Metazycera are reviewed. The correct author of Acentroptera is Guérin-Méneville, 1844; Acentroptera dejeani Guérin-Méneville, 1844, is here designated as the type species. Metazycera is the correct spelling of the genus described by Chevrolat, 1837; the type species is Hispa trimaculata Olivier, 1808, by monotypy; Metaxycera Baly, 1864 is an unjustified emendation.
Specimens of Megacopta cribraria (Fabricius) were collected in northern Georgia in late October 2009, where they were invading homes in large numbers. This is the first known occurrence of this species and the family Plataspidae in the New World. Megacopta cribraria was previously known from Asia and Australia. A key is provided to separate Plataspidae from other families of Pentatomoidea in America North of Mexico. A diagnosis and figures are provided to facilitate recognition of M. cribraria. Reported host plants and other aspects of the biology of this species are reviewed. Megacopta cribraria is considered a pest of numerous legumes in Asia, has the potential to provide biological control of kudzu, Pueraria montana var. lobata (Willd.) Ohwi, (Fabaceae) and likely will continue to be a household pest in the vicinity of kudzu fields as well as become a pest of North American legume crops.
The species of the genus Lathropus Erichson are reviewed for Florida and the West Indies, excluding the Lesser Antilles. Seven species are recorded from this region, three of which are described as new: Lathropus chickcharnie Thomas, new species, Lathropus jamaicensis Thomas, new species, and Lathropus rhabdophloeoides Thomas, new species. A lectotype is designated for Lathropus vernalis Casey, and Lathropus striatus Casey is synonymized under Lathropus vernalis Casey, new synonymy. Illustrations and a key to the species of this geographgic region are provided.
Rezension zu: Raimon Graells i Fabregat (Coord.), El valor social i comercial de la vaixella metàllica al Mediterrani centre-occidental durant la protohitòria in: Revista d’Arqueologia de Ponent 16-17, 2006-2007, 257-340 <81 pages, 65 illustrations. Edited by Secció d’Arqueologia, Prehistoria i Història Antiga, Departament d’Història, Facultat de Lletres, Universitat de Lleida. ISSN: 1131-883-X>
Event-by-event fluctuations of the particle yield ratios in heavy-ion collisions at 20 - 158 AGeV
(2010)
Non-statistical event-by-event fluctuations are considered as an important signal for the critical endpoint of the QCD phase diagram. Event-by-event fluctuations of different observables are thus investigated in detail in current experiments but are also an important observable to be studied at the future CBM experiment at FAIR. In this work we present the energy and centrality dependence of event-by-event fluctuations of particle yield ratios measured by the NA49 experiment in Pb+Pb collisions at 20 - 158 AGeV. Systematic studies of the influence of the dE/dx resolution on the particle identification and the centrality bin size were performed. Results can be compared to event-by-event fluctuations measured by NA49 for different observables such as <pt> or the mean charged particle multiplicity. Main results of these studies are an increase of absolute value of the dynamical particle ratio fluctuations with decreasing centrality for all considered ratios, saturation of the K/Pi and K/p ratio fluctuations for peripheral Pb + Pb collisions at 158A GeV and scaling of the energy and centrality dependences of the p/Pi ratio fluctuations with NpNPi. The measured energy and centrality dependences of the K/Pi and K/p ratio fluctuations scale with NK in a different way. The saturation of the mentioned ratios fluctuations was attributed to the development of pronounced spike at zero in the eventwise ratio distributions, which, as was shown by Monte Carlo simulations, influence the measured fluctuations in the very peripheral Pb + Pb collisions at 158A GeV. In future, the CBM experiment at FAIR will investigate the intermediate region of the QCD phase diagram in great detail searching for the first order phase transition line and the expected critical endpoint. It is therefore important to closely investigate its sensitivity towards particle ratio fluctuations in Au+Au collisions at 10-45 AGeV beam energy. Detailed simulation studies will be presented. As an outcome of these feasibility studies we conclude that the CBM experiment will be able to provide high quality data on the subject of the event-by-event flucutations of particle yield ratios with sensitivity in the order of 1%.
Over the past few decades, changes in market conditions such as globalisation and deregulation of financial markets as well as product innovation and technical advancements have induced financial institutions to expand their business activities beyond their traditional boundaries and to engage in cross-sectoral operations. As combining different sectoral businesses offers opportunities for operational synergies and diversification benefits, financial groups comprising banks, insurance undertakings and/or investment firms, usually referred to as financial conglomerates, have rapidly emerged, providing a wide range of services and products in distinct financial sectors and oftentimes in different geographic locations. In the European Union (EU), financial conglomerates have become part of the biggest and most active financial market participants in recent years. Financial conglomerates generally pose new problems for financial authorities as they can raise new risks and exacerbate existing ones. In particular, their cross-sectoral business activities can involve prudentially substantial risks such as the risk of regulatory arbitrage and contagion risk arising from intra-group transactions. Moreover, the generally large size of financial conglomerates as well as the high complexity and interconnectedness of their corporate structures and risk exposures can entail substantial systemic risk and can therefore threaten the stability of the financial system as a whole. Until a few years ago, there was no supervisory framework in place which addressed a financial conglomerate in its entirety as a group. Instead, each group entity within a financial conglomerate was subject to the supervisory rules of its pertinent sector only. Such silo supervisory approach had the drawback of not taking account of risks which arise or aggravate at the group level. It also failed to consider how the risks from different business lines within the group interrelate with each other and affect the group as a whole. In order to address this lack of group-wide prudential supervision of financial conglomerates, the European legislator adopted the Financial Conglomerates Directive 2002/87/EC8 (‘FCD’) on 16 December 2002. The FCD was transposed into national law in the member states of the EU (‘Member States’) by 11 August 2004 for application to financial years beginning on 1 January 2005 and after. The FCD primarily aims at supplementing the existing sectoral directives to address the additional risks of concentration, contagion and complexity presented by financial conglomerates. It therefore provides for a supervisory framework which is applicable in addition to the sectoral supervision. Most importantly, the FCD has introduced additional capital requirements at the conglomerate level so as to prevent the multiple use of the same capital by different group entities. This paper seeks to examine to what extent the FCD provides for an adequate capital regulation of financial conglomerates in the EU while taking into account the underlying sectoral capital requirements and the inherent risks associated with financial conglomerates. In Part 1, the definition and the basic corporate models of financial conglomerates will be presented (I), followed by an illustration of the core motives behind the phenomenon of financial conglomeration (II) and an overview of the development of the supervision over financial conglomerates in the EU (III). Part 2 begins with a brief elaboration on the role of regulatory capital (I) and gives a general overview of the EU capital requirements applicable to banks and insurance undertakings respectively. A delineation of the commonalities and differences of the banking and the insurance capital requirements will be provided (II). It continues to further examine the need for a group-wide capital regulation of financial conglomerates and analyses the adequacy of the FCD capital requirements. In this context, the technical advice rendered by the Joint Committee on Financial Conglomerates (JCFC) as well as the currently ongoing legislative reforms at the EU level will be discussed (III). The paper finally closes with a conclusion and an outlook on remaining open issues (IV).
This study examines the legal environment of netting agreements covering financial contracts. It concludes that an international instrument should be developed capable of improving the effectiveness of netting agreements in mitigating systemic risk. To this end, two different aspects of the enforceability of netting agreements are considered: (i) the general enforceability of netting, and (ii) the possibility of precluding the operation of netting a mechanism by way of a regulatory moratorium for considerations of systemic stability. The first part of the study presents the use of netting and the various forms it may take before going on to explain the benefits and drawbacks of enforceable netting agreements. Benefits for individual firms consist in lower counterparty risk and more favourable capital requirements. Benefits for the financial market as a whole flow from greater financial market stability since the contagion of systemically relevant institutions by the default or insolvency of another institution is limited, thus helping to avoid systemic effects. Additionally, the use of netting arrangements can improve overall market liquidity. A potential drawback of enforceability of netting, in certain situations, is that the operation of a netting mechanism could actually work against the purpose of systemic stability where the transfer of parts of the business of an insolvent financial institution to a solvent bridge entity would enhance or maintain value to a greater extent than the operation of a netting agreement would. Regulatory authorities are considering under which conditions a moratorium to halt the netting mechanism until the situation is solved could avoid this threat to systemic stability. The second part of the study examines whether there is the potential to support the purpose of enhanced systemic stability by way of international harmonisation of private and insolvency law. As regards the issue of general enforceability, the global picture of netting legislation is heterogeneous. Given the great practical relevance of the matter, an international instrument could be very useful. As to the issue of private law consequences of regulatory moratoria, the absence of a harmonised framework appears to lead to actual cross-border inconsistency and legal uncertainty as regards financial contracts that are governed by a foreign law. Taking these to aspects into account, this paper recommends that work on developing an international instrument be undertaken. The final part of the study suggests a set of preliminary guidelines for the development of suchan instrument. In the light of the findings of the previous sections, a mixed, two-step approach is recommended. First, a non-binding instrument could be developed, serving as a benchmark and reservoir of legal solutions in respect of the relevant issues. Secondly, isolated aspects relating to both the general enforceability of netting and the accommodation of a regulatory moratorium in foreign private and insolvency law could be dealt with in an international Convention, in particular where cross-border situations involving netting require uniformity of applicable legal rules.
Background: Environmental noise is ubiquitous in population growth processes, with a well acknowledged potential to affect populations regardless of their sizes. It therefore deserves consideration in population dynamics modelling. The usual approach to incorporating noise into population dynamical models is to make some model parameter(s) (typically the growth rate, the carrying capacity, or both) stochastic and responsive to environment fluctuations. It is however still unclear whether including noise in one or/and another parameter makes a difference to the model performance. Here we investigated this issue with a focus on model fit and predictive accuracy. To do this, we developed three population dynamical models of the Ricker type with the noise included in the growth rate (Model 1), in the carrying capacity (Model 2), and in both (Model 3). We generated several population time series under each model, and used a Bayesian approach to fit the three models to the simulated data. We then compared the model performances in fitting to the data and in forecasting future observations. Results: When the mean intrinsic growth rate, r, in the data was low, the three models had roughly comparable performances, irrespective of the true model and the level of noise. As r increased, Models 1 performed best on data generated from it, and Model 3 tended to perform best on data generated from either Models 2 or Model 3. Model 2 was uniformly outcompeted by the other two models, regardless of the true model and the level of noise. The correlation between the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the mean square error (MSE) used respectively as measure of fit and predictive accuracy was broadly positive. Conclusion: Our results suggested that the way environmental noise is incorporated into a population dynamical model may profoundly affect its performance. Overall, we found that including noise in one or/and another parameter does not matter as long as the mean intrinsic growth rate, r, is low. As r increased, however, the three models performed differently. Models 1 and 3 broadly outperformed Model 2, the first having the advantage of being simple and more computationally tractable. A comforting result emerging from our analysis is the broad positive correlation between MSEs and DICs, suggesting that the latter may also be informative about the predictive performance of a model.