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We show that average excess returns during the last two years of the presidential cycle are significantly higher than during the first two years: 9.8 percent over the period 1948 – 2008. This pattern in returns cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. In this paper, we formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as the alternative explanation found in the literature for explaining the presidential cycle anomaly. PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight empirically testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The existence of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power. JEL Classification: E32; G14; P16 Keywords: Political Economy, Market Efficiency, Anomalies, Calendar Effects
The Anthonomus juniperinus group, with descriptions of two new species (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)
(2010)
The Anthonomus juniperinus (Sanborn) species group is defined and two new species, Anthonomus sanborni, new species, and A. rileyi new species, from the United States are described, keyed and illustrated. The three species of the group are associated with the plant genus Juniperus and the larvae of A. juniperinus are known to develop in fungal galls of Gymnosporangium spp. as well as fruits of the Eastern redcedar, Juniperus virginiana L. The biology of the group and its taxonomic relationships to other species of Anthonomus Germar are also discussed.
The fauna of Phanaeini of the northeast of Brazil was investigated through fieldwork in the States of Ceará, Maranhão and Piauí, and through study of preserved material from other states. Seven species of Phanaeini are newly recorded from these three states. Of these, two species are also new records for the northeast region: Phanaeus melibaeus Blanchard and an unidentified Dendropaemon Perty species. A total of 13 new state records are given for eight of the 15 species of Phanaeini recorded from the northeast to date, including three new state genus records. A key is provided for identification of all species. Detailed distributional information is presented together with habitat and bait preferences and other ecological data for each species. The diversity and distribution of the tribe in the northeast is discussed in the context of regional biotopes and wider geographic ranges. The fauna is shown to be more diverse than previously believed, containing both endemic and widespread elements occurring in species assemblages that differ according to habitat type and elevation, leading to substantial complementarity of diversity amongst the main biogeographic provinces and biotopes of the region.
Four new species of Cydistomyia Taylor from New Guinea, C. missimiensis, C. madangiensis, C. waigani, and C. moresbyensis, are described and figured. A revised key to the females of New Guinea Cydistomyia and New Guinea collection records for 57 additional species of Tabanidae are provided. A table with the approximate longitudes and latitudes of all but one locality listed is provided.
Hiltonius carpinus carpinus Chamberlin, 1943 (Spirobolida: Spirobolidae), is authoritatively recorded from the United States for the first time; it is known only from southern/southeastern Arizona but should be expected in adjoining counties of New Mexico. The northernmost locality is the Pinaleno Mountains, Graham County, and its distribution extends to southern Mexico; the other subspecies, H. c. vulcan (Chamberlin, 1953), occurs in Guatemala. The range of H. c. carpinus includes the type locality of the enigmatic H. fossulifer (Pocock, 1908), lending credence to prior suggestions that the names are synonymous. Three new Mexican states – Durango, Jalisco, and Nuevo León – are documented for H. c. carpinus.
New species are described in the tribe Piezocerini: Gorybia rondonia sp. nov. from Brazil (Rondônia) and G. bahiensis sp. nov. from Brazil (Bahia); in the tribe Hexoplonini: Calycibidion rubricolle sp. nov. from Brazil (Bahia); in the tribe Ibidionini, Tropidina: Tropidion argentina sp. nov. from Argentina (La Rioja) and T. boliviensis sp. nov. from Bolivia (Santa Cruz); in the tribe Rhinotragini: Ommata (Ommata) albitarsis sp. nov. from Brazil (Rondônia); and in the tribe Rhopalophorini: Cosmisoma viridescens sp. nov. from Brazil (Bahia). To validate the tribal names, Hexoplon Thomson, 1864 and Tropidion Thomson, 1867, are here designated type genera of Hexoplonini and Tropidiina, respectively.
The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) coreceptor use and viral evolution were analyzed in blood samples from an HIV-1 infected patient undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT). Coreceptor use was predicted in silico from sequence data obtained from the third variable loop region of the viral envelope gene with two software tools. Viral diversity and evolution was evaluated on the same samples by Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood methods. In addition, phenotypic analysis was done by comparison of viral growth in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and in a CCR5 (R5)-deficient T-cell line which was controlled by a reporter assay confirming viral tropism. In silico coreceptor predictions did not match experimental determinations that showed a consistent R5 tropism. Anti-HIV directed antibodies could be detected before and after the SCT. These preexisting antibodies did not prevent viral rebound after the interruption of antiretroviral therapy during the SCT. Eventually, transplantation and readministration of anti-retroviral drugs lead to sustained increase in CD4 counts and decreased viral load to undetectable levels. Unexpectedly, viral diversity decreased after successful SCT. Our data evidence that only R5-tropic virus was found in the patient before and after transplantation. Therefore, blocking CCR5 receptor during stem cell transplantation might have had beneficial effects and this might apply to more patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Furthermore, we revealed a scenario of HIV-1 dynamic different from the commonly described ones. Analysis of viral evolution shows the decrease of viral diversity even during episodes with bursts in viral load.
Background: The importance of the Notch signaling in the development of glomerular diseases has been recently described. Therefore we analyzed in podocytes the expression and activity of ADAM10, one important component of the Notch signaling complex. Methods: By Western blot, immunofluorescence and immunohistochemistry analysis we characterized the expression of ADAM10 in human podocytes, human urine and human renal tissue. Results: We present evidence, that differentiated human podocytes possessed increased amounts of mature ADAM10 and released elevated levels of L1 adhesion molecule, one well known substrate of ADAM10. By using specific siRNA and metalloproteinase inhibitors we demonstrate that ADAM10 is involved in the cleavage of L1 in human podocytes. Injury of podocytes enhanced the ADAM10 mediated cleavage of L1. In addition, we detected ADAM10 in urinary podocytes from patients with kidney diseases and in tissue sections of normal human kidney. Finally, we found elevated levels of ADAM10 in urinary vesicles of patients with glomerular kidney diseases. Conclusions: The activity of ADAM10 in human podocytes may play an important role in the development of glomerular kidney diseases.
Background: B. burgdorferi sensu lato (sl) is the etiological agent of Lyme borreliosis in humans. Spirochetes have adapted themselves to the human immune system in many distinct ways. One important immune escape mechanism for evading complement activation is the binding of complement regulators Factor H (CFH) or Factor H-like protein1 (FHL-1) to Complement Regulator-Acquiring Surface Proteins (CRASPs). Results: We demonstrate that B. garinii OspA serotype (ST4) PBi resist complement-mediated killing by binding of FHL-1. To identify the primary ligands of FHL-1 four CspA orthologs from B. garinii ST4 PBi were cloned and tested for binding to human CFH and FHL-1. Orthologs BGA66 and BGA71 were found to be able to bind both complement regulators but with different intensities. In addition, all CspA orthologs were tested for binding to mammalian and avian CFH. Distinct orthologs were able to bind to CFH of different animal origins. Conclusions: B. garinii ST4 PBi is able to evade complement killing and can bind FHL-1 to membrane expressed proteins. Recombinant proteins BGA66 can bind FHL-1 and human CFH, while BGA71 can bind only FHL-1. All recombinant CspA orthologs from B. garinii ST4 PBi can bind CFH from different animal origins. This partly explains the wide variety of animals that can be infected by B. garinii.
Introduction: Hypothermia improves survival and neurological recovery after cardiac arrest. Pro-inflammatory cytokines have been implicated in focal cerebral ischemia/reperfusion in-jury. It is unknown whether cardiac arrest also triggers the release of cerebral inflammatory molecules, and whether therapeutic hypothermia alters this inflammatory response. This study sought to examine whether hypothermia or the combination of hypothermia with anes-thetic postconditioning with sevoflurane affect cerebral inflammatory response after cardio-pulmonary resuscitation. Methods: Thirty pigs (28 - 34kg) were subjected to cardiac arrest following temporary coro-nary artery occlusion. After 7 minutes of ventricular fibrillation and 2 minutes of basic life support, advanced cardiac life support was started according to the current AHA guidelines. Return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 21 animals who were randomized to ei-ther normothermia at 38degreesC, hypothermia at 33degreesC or hypothermia at 33degreesC combined with se-voflurane (each group: n = 7) for 24 hours. The effects of hypothermia and the combination of hypothermia with sevoflurane on cerebral inflammatory response after cardiopulmonary resuscitation were studied using tissue samples from the cerebral cortex of pigs euthanized after 24 hours and employing quantitative RT-PCR and ELISA techniques. Results: Global cerebral ischemia following resuscitation resulted in significant upregulation of cerebral tissue inflammatory cytokine mRNA expression (mean +/- SD; interleukin (IL)-1beta 8.7 +/- 4.0, IL-6 4.3 +/- 2.6, IL-10 2.5 +/- 1.6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)alpha 2.8 +/- 1.8, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) 4.0 +/- 1.9-fold compared with sham control) and IL-1beta protein concentration (1.9 +/- 0.6-fold compared with sham control). Hypothermia was associated with a significant (P <0.05 versus normothermia) reduction in cerebral inflammatory cytokine mRNA expression (IL-1beta 1.7 +/- 1.0, IL-6 2.2 +/- 1.1, IL-10 0.8 +/- 0.4, TNFalpha 1.1 +/- 0.6, ICAM-1 1.9 +/- 0.7-fold compared with sham control). These results were also confirmed for IL-1beta on protein level. Experimental settings employing hypothermia in combination with sevoflurane showed that the volatile anesthetic did not confer additional anti-inflammatory effects com-pared with hypothermia alone. Conclusions: Mild therapeutic hypothermia resulted in decreased expression of typical ce-rebral inflammatory mediators after cardiopulmonary resuscitation. This may confer, at least in part, neuroprotection following global cerebral ischemia and resuscitation.