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The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self‐reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long‐term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
This essay reviews a cornerstone of the European Banking Union project, the resolution of systemically important banks. The focus is on the inherent conflict between a possible intervention by resolution authorities, conditional on a crisis situation, and effective prevention prior to a crisis. Moreover, the paper discusses the rules for bail-in debt and conversion rules for different layers of debt. Finally, some organizational requirements to achieve effective resolution results will be analyzed.
Channelrhodopsin-1 from Chlamydomonas augustae (CaChR1) is a light-activated cation channel, which is a promising optogenetic tool. We show by resonance Raman spectroscopy and retinal extraction followed by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) that the isomeric ratio of all-trans to 13-cis of solubilized channelrhodopsin-1 is with 70:30 identical to channelrhodopsin-2 from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii (CrChR2). Critical frequency shifts in the retinal vibrations are identified in the Raman spectrum upon transition to the open (conductive P2(380)) state. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra indicate different structures of the open states in the two channelrhodopsins as reflected by the amide I bands and the protonation pattern of acidic amino acids.
The subatomic world is governed by the strong interactions of quarks and gluons, described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). Quarks experience confinement into colour-less objects, i.e. they can not be observed as free particles. Under extreme conditions such as high temperature or high density, this constraint softens and a transition to a phase where quarks and gluons are quasi-free particles (Quark-Gluon-Plasma) can occur. This environment resembles the conditions prevailing during the early stages of the universe shortly after the Big Bang.
The phase diagram of QCD is under investigation in current and future collider experiments, for example at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) or at the Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR). Due to the strength of the strong interactions in the energy regime of interest, analytic methods can not be applied rigorously. The only tool to study QCD from first principles is given by simulations of its discretised version, Lattice QCD (LQCD).
These simulations are in the high-performance computing area, hence, the numerical aspects of LQCD are a vital part in this field of research. In recent years, Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) have been incorporated in these simulations as they are a standard tool for general purpose calculations today.
In the course of this thesis, the LQCD application cl2qcd has been developed, which allows for simulations on GPUs as well as on traditional CPUs, as it is based on OpenCL. cl2qcd constitutes the first application for Wilson type fermions in OpenCL.
It provides excellent performance and has been applied in physics studies presented in this thesis. The investigation of the QCD phase diagram is hampered by the notorious sign-problem, which restricts current simulation algorithms to small values of the chemical potential.
Theoretically, studying unphysical parameter ranges allows for constraints on the phase diagram. Of utmost importance is the clarification of the order of the finite temperature transition in the Nf=2 chiral limit at zero chemical potential. It is not known if it is of first or second order. To this end, simulations utilising Twisted Mass Wilson fermions aiming at the chiral limit are presented in this thesis.
Another possibility is the investigation of QCD at purely imaginary chemical potential. In this region, QCD is known to posses a rich phase structure, which can be used to constrain the phase diagram of QCD at real chemical potential and to clarify the nature of the Nf=2 chiral limit. This phase structure is studied within this thesis, in particular the nature of the Roberge-Weiss endpoint is mapped out using Wilson fermions.
SAFE Newsletter : 2014, Q3
(2014)
Das Schwerionenkollisionen Programm der Beschleuniger RHIC und LHC gibt Hinweise auf einen neuen Zustand hadronischer Materie --- das Quark-Gluon Plasma. Dieses zeichnet sich durch eine zumindest partielle Aufhebung des confinements aus, welches besagt, dass keine freien Quarks beochtbar sind.
Aus einer Beschreibung der experimentellen Daten mit relativistischer Hydrodynamik folgen weitere Eigenschaften. So geht das in einer Schwerionenkollision erzeugte Quark-Gluon Plasma nach sehr kurzer Zeit, etwa 1 fm/c, in ein zumindest lokales thermisches Gleichgewicht über. Durch die Lorentzkontraktion der beiden Schwerionen erwartet man, dass der Zustand direkt nach der Kollision durch eine Impulsanisotropie in der transversal-longitudinalen Ebene bestimmt wird. Somit setzt das Erreichen eines thermischen Gleichgewichts zunächst eine Isotropisierung voraus. Bisherige Studien haben gezeigt, dass gluonische Moden bei dieser Isotropisierung durch Verursachung einer chromo-Weibel Instabilität eine entscheidende Rolle spielen.
Weiterhin verhält sich das Quark-Gluon Plasma wie eine fast perfekte Flüssigkeit. Eine Berücksichtigung dissipativer Terme in der hydrodynamischen Beschreibung erfordert das Hinzufügen weiterer Terme zu den entsprechenden Bewegungsgleichungen. Diese sind proportional zu Transportkoeffizienten, welche durch die zugrunde liegende mikroskopische Theorie festgelegt sind.
Diese Theorie ist Quantenchromodynamik. Sie beschreibt die starke Wechselwirkung der Quarks und Gluonen und ist ein fundamentaler Baustein des Standardmodells der Teilchenphysik. Da im Regelfall Prozesse der starken Wechselwirkung nichtperturbativ sind, beschreiben wir QCD unter Verwendung einer Gitterregularisierung. Diese beruht auf einer Diskretisierung der vierdimensionalen Euklidischen Raumzeit durch einen Hyperkubus mit periodischen Randbedingungen und ermöglicht ein Lösen der QCD mit numerischen Methoden. Allerdings ist die Anwendung der Gittereichtheorie auf Systeme im thermischen Gleichgewicht beschränkt und kann somit keine Prozesse beschreiben, die auf Echtzeit basieren.
Transportkoeffizienten entsprechen Proportionalitätskoeffizienten, die die Relaxation einer Flüssigkeit oder eben eines Quark-Gluon Plasmas von einer kleinen Störung beschreiben. Damit sind sie unmittelbar mit der Zeit verknüpft. Über Kubo-Formeln lassen sie sich jedoch mit Gleichgewichtserwartungswerten retardierter Korrelatoren verknüpfen und werden so in Gitter QCD zugänglich.
In der vorliegenden Dissertation berechnen wir den Transportkoeffizienten κ in Gittereichtheorie für das Yang-Mills Plasma. Dabei nutzen wir aus, dass dieser Transportkoeffizient eine triviale analytische Fortsetzung vom retardierten zum Euklidischen Korrelator besitzt, welcher direkt in Gittereichtheorie zugänglich ist. Es ist die erste nichtperturbative Berechnung eines Transportkoeffizienten in QCD ohne weitere Annahmen, wie die Maximum Entropie Methode oder Ansätze, zu treffen.
We compared Chatham Island endemic species Xanthocnemis tuanuii to its congenerics from the New Zealand South Island: X. zealandica (newly collected specimens)and X. sinclairi (type specimens plus newly collected material). Two independent tests were performed –geometric morphometrics and molecular. Both analyses were consistent in supporting the status of X. tuanuiias a good species. Species differed statistically in the following morphological traits: head (dorsal view), male appendages (dorsal, lateral, posterior and ventral views), thorax (dorsal view), and penis (dorsal and lateral view). In addition to the original diagnostic features (mainly shape of the male superior appendages), a new morphological character is suggested here which reliably distinguishes the species based on the shape of the inferior appendages. There was no statistical support for the species status of X. sinclairi. The only feature re-ported as diagnostic (lower lobe of male superior appendages) was found to be variable and insufficient to warrant the previously proposed taxonomic rank for X. sinclairi. Molecular analysis of specimens showing identical appendages to the X. sinclairi holotype grouped them with X. zealandica specimens. Therefore X. sinclairi is synonymised with X. zealandica.
In the second half of February 2014, Odonata were searched for nine days on Bali andfour days on Lombok, the western Lesser Sundas, Indonesia. One species, Orthetrum chrysishas been for the first time recorded for Bali and six species, Nosostictaemphyla, Idionyx murcia, Brachydiplax chalybea, Agrionoptera insignis, Neurothemisramburii, Rhyothemis phyllishave been for the first time recorded for Lombok. The previous lit-erature concerning the two islands is analysed. To the moment, 55 Odonata species (3 unidentified) are known for Bali and 39 for Lombok, although the actual faunas of both islands are supposed to be equally rich, and further studies on Lombok are necessary. Odonata faunas of Bali and Lombok mirror each other in respect of high shares,29 and 23%, of Odonata species ranging to the west and east of the two islands, respectively. Efficiency of Lombok Strait as a biogeographical boundary was estimated as high as 0.6, so Wallace Line is of importance for Odonata. Some diagnostic characters of N. emphyla, N. ramburii, R. phyllis phyllisand Procordulia sambawanaand a taxo-nomical situation around Prodasineura autumnalisand P. humeralis, which is not justified biogeographically, are discussed. Short notes on habitats and assemblages of Odonata are added.
The results of two expeditions into the Ulu Baleh and Ulu Balui areas of the interior of Sarawak are presented, including data from forest that was pristine at the time of sampling but that was subsequently logged. A total of 74 species are recorded, notably including Coeliccia campioni, Coeliccia new species borneensis-group, Pericnemis spp., Heliogomphusblandulus, Leptogomphus pendleburyi, Chlorogomphus ?manauand Procordulia ?new species. A discussion of the results and potential differences in the odonate fauna of comparable logged and unlogged forest sites is given.
Odonata fauna of karst streams and rivers of South Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina, West Balkan)
(2014)
Results of the odonatological survey in the Neretva River Basin in South Herzegovinakarst region of Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted from April to August 2013 are presented. The area had been pre-assessed as insufficiently known in term of its Odonata fauna, but believed to be important habitat for several species of conservation concern, particularly Coenagrion ornatum, Ceriagrion tenellum, Caliaeschna microstigma, Lindenia tetraphylla and Cordulegaster heros. Moreover, freshwater habitats of the region are increasingly threatened due to climate change and the habitat destruction due to infrastructure and hydroenergy production projects. The focus of the study was set on the streams and rivers in Neretva, Trebižat, Trebišnjica and Bregava river valleys, Hutovo blato wetland, Mostarsko blato, Dabarsko and Fatničko polje. The survey resulted in 482 Odonata records of 49 species from 52 surveyed localities. Notable results include new distribution data on species of conservation concern, particularly six new localities of C. ornatum, nine of C. microstigma and five of C. heros. Comments on species of conservation concern and brief description of habitats at all surveyed localities are provided. New data on species of conservation concern are important for better conservation planning of dragonfly species and habitats in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A new species of the synthemistid genus Palaeosynthemis is described from the Trauna River valley in Western Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea. The new species is most similar to P. cyrene from which it can be distinguished, among other characters, by the coloration of the pterostigma (jet-black in the new species vs brownish yellow in P. cyrene) and of the wing bases (not darkened vs strongly darkened). The new species also differs from P. cyrene in having a narrow, almost parallel-sided yellow lateral synthoracic stripe and a well-defined yellow marking along most of the ventral margin of the metepimeron. In P. cyrene the lateral synthoracic stripe is markedly wider and tapered, and the yellow element along the ventral margin of the metepimeron is absent. Characters of the adult male are illustrated and the affinities of the species are discussed.
A selection of duplicates from the collection of Michel Edmond de Selys Longchamps was found at the Übersee-Museum Bremen/Germany (UMB). Selys determined a lot of Odonata in the UMB collection and sent 80 European and 76 exotic species to Bremen on 23 April, 1875. According to the labels 121 specimens could be assigned to this shipment and eleven specimens must have been sent to UMB in later years. This collection includes two paralectotypes (Progomphus gracilis Hagen inSelys, 1853;Palaemnema nathalia Selys, 1886) and seven syntypes (Rhinocypha trifasciata Selys, 1853; Dysphaea dimidiata limbata Selys, 1859; Argia sordida Hagen inSelys, 1865; Oxyagrion dissidens Selys, 1876; Oxyagrion haematinum Selys, 1876; Oxyagrion pavi-dum Hagen in Selys, 1876; Telagrion longum Selys, 1876). In addition, a male specimen of Euphaea tricolor subcostalis Selys, 1873 might also belong to the original syntype series. Altogether three specimens with labeled nomina nuda(Diplax catharina Selys, Diplax fausta Selys, Dythemis bilineata Hagen) and two labeled with manuscript names (Diplax marcellina Selys, Perithemis ovate Bates) are in this collection.
In spring and summer 2008, the Odonata fauna of the Khabr National Park (Iran) was studied for the first time. Here, we present records of the representatives of family Libellulidae only. A total of twelve libellulid Odonata were found. Most of them are common species in Iran and other parts of Kerman province. Scarce Iranian species are Trithemis arteriosa and Zygonyx torridus.
Specimens of Burmagomphus asahinai Kosterin, Makbun and Dawwrueng, 2012 and Burmagomphus divaricatus Lieftinck, 1964 from SW and NE Cambodia show differences in the development of the light pattern. One male of the latter species has unusual posterior spinules on posterior hamuli. Two males of Orientogomphus minor(Laidlaw, 1931) from the same locality in NE Cambodia have substantial differences in the thoracic and abdominal pattern. NE Cambodian specimens of Gomphidia abbotti Williamson, 1907 and Lamelligomphus castor (Lieftinck, 1941) have minor differences from data on these species from literature. Caution is necessary when composing and using keys for identification of the mentioned genera of gomphids.
Balut and Sarangani islands are two small landmasses situated off the coast of Davao Occidental, Mindanao Island. Despite recent increase on odonatological data from various islands in the Philippines, these two remote islands have never been explored. Hence, a short survey was conducted on first week of April and November 7 – November 14, 2010 on all freshwater systems in these two islands. Twenty-five species under seven families and 21 genera were found representing the first Odonata record for the two islands.
We propose a novel approach on how to estimate systemic risk and identify its key determinants. For US financial companies with publicly traded equity options, we extract option-implied value-at-risks and measure the spillover effects between individual company value-at-risks and the option-implied value-at-risk of a financial index. First, we study the spillover effect of increasing company risks on the financial sector. Second, we analyze which companies are mostly affected if the tail risk of the financial sector increases. Key metrics such as size, leverage, market-to-book ratio and earnings have a significant influence on the systemic risk profiles of financial institutions.
This thesis serves two main purposes:
1. The introduction of a novel experimental method to investigate phase change dynamics of supercooled liquids
2. First-time measurements for the crystallization behaviour for hydrogen isotopes under various conditions
1) The new method is established by the synergy of a liquid microjet of ~ 5 µm diameter and a scattering technique with high spatial resolution, here linear Raman spectroscopy. Due to the high directional stability and the known velocity of the liquid filament, its traveling axis corresponds to a time axis static in space. Utilizing evaporative cooling in a vacuum environment, the propagating liquid cools down rapidly and eventually experiences a phase transition to the crystalline state. This temporal evolution is probed along the filament axis, ultimately resulting in a time resolution of 10 ns. The feasibility of this approach is proven successfully within the following experiments.
2) A main object of study are para-hydrogen liquid filaments. Raman spectra reveal a temperature gradient of the liquid across the filament. This behaviour can quantitatively be reconstructed by numerical simulations using a layered model and is rooted in the effectiveness of evaporative cooling on the surface and a finite thermal conductivity. The deepest supercoolings achieved are ~ 30% below the melting point, at which the filament starts to solidify from the surface towards the core. With a crystal growth velocity extracted from the data the appropriate growth mechanism is identified. The crystal structure that initially forms is metastable and probably the result of Ostwald’s rule of stages. Indications for a transition within the solid towards the stable equilibrium phase support this interpretation.
The analog isotope ortho-deuterium is evidenced to behave qualitatively similar with quantitative differences being mass related.
In further measurements, isotopic mixtures of para-hydrogen and ortho-deuterium are investigated. It is found that the crystallization process starts earlier and lasts significantly longer compared to the pure substances with the maximum values between 20-50% ortho-deuterium content. A solely temperature based explanation for this effect can be excluded. The difference in the quantum character and hence effective size of the isotopes suggests a strong influence of the progressing liquid-solid-interface. Small dilutions of each para-hydrogen and ortho-deuterium with neon show an even more extended crystallization process compared to above isotopic mixtures. Additionally, the crystal is strongly altered in favor of the equilibrium lattice structure of neon.
Low interest rates are becoming a threat to the stability of the life insurance industry, especially in countries such as Germany, where products with relatively high guaranteed returns sold in the past still represent a prominent share of the total portfolio. This contribution aims to assess and quantify the effects of the current low interest rate phase on the balance sheet of a representative German life insurer, given the current asset allocation and the outstanding liabilities. To do so, we generate a stochastic term structure of interest rates as well as stock market returns to simulate investment returns of a stylized life insurance business portfolio in a multi-period setting. Based on empirically calibrated parameters, we can observe the evolution of the life insurers' balance sheet over time with a special focus on their solvency situation. To account for different scenarios and in order to check the robustness of our findings, we calibrate different capital market settings and different initial situations of capital endowment. Our results suggest that a prolonged period of low interest rates would markedly affect the solvency situation of life insurers, leading to relatively high cumulative probability of default for less capitalized companies.
This paper analyzes how on-the-job search (OJS) by an agent impacts the moral hazard problem in a repeated principal-agent relationship. OJS is found to constitute a source of agency costs because efficient search incentives require that the agent receives all gains from trade. Further, the optimal incentive contract with OJS matches the design of empirically observed compensation contracts more accurately than models that ignore OJS. In particular, the optimal contract entails excessive performance pay plus efficiency wages. Efficiency wages reduce the opportunity costs of work effort and hence serve as a complement to bonuses. Thus, the model offers a novel explanation for the use of efficiency wages. When allowing for renegotiation, the model generates wage and turnover dynamics that are consistent with empirical evidence. I argue that the model contributes to explaining the concomitant rise in the use of performance pay and in competition for high-skill workers during the last three decades.
We study consumption-portfolio and asset pricing frameworks with recursive preferences and unspanned risk. We show that in both cases, portfolio choice and asset pricing, the value function of the investor/ representative agent can be characterized by a specific semilinear partial differential equation. To date, the solution to this equation has mostly been approximated by Campbell-Shiller techniques, without addressing general issues of existence and uniqueness. We develop a novel approach that rigorously constructs the solution by a fixed point argument. We prove that under regularity conditions a solution exists and establish a fast and accurate numerical method to solve consumption-portfolio and asset pricing problems with recursive preferences and unspanned risk. Our setting is not restricted to affine asset price dynamics. Numerical examples illustrate our approach.