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Deformation in the upper mantle is localized in shear zones. In order to localize strain, weakening has to occur, which can be achieved by a reduction in grain size. In order for grains to remain small and preserve shear zones, phases have to mix. Phase mixing leads to dragging or pinning of grain boundaries which slows down or halts grain growth. Multiple phase mixing processes have been suggested to be important during shear zone evolution. The importance of a phase mixing process depends on the geodynamic setting. This study presents detailed microstructural analysis of spinel bearing shear zones from the Erro-Tobbio peridotite (Italy) that formed during pre-alpine rifting. The first stage of deformation occurred under melt-free conditions, during which clinopyroxene and olivine porphyroclasts dynamically recrystallized. With ongoing extension, silica-undersaturated melt percolated through the shear zones and reacted with the clinopyroxene neoblasts, forming olivine–clinopyroxene layers. Furthermore, the melt reacted with orthopyroxene porphyroclasts, forming fine-grained polymineralic layers (ultramylonites) adjacent to the porphyroclasts. Strain rates in these layers are estimated to be about an order of magnitude faster than within the olivine-rich matrix. This study demonstrates the importance of melt-rock reactions for grain size reduction, phase mixing and strain localization in these shear zones.
A high incidence of thromboembolic events associated with high mortality has been reported in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections with respiratory failure. The present study characterized post-transcriptional gene regulation by global microRNA (miRNA) expression in relation to activated coagulation and inflammation in 21 critically ill SARS-CoV-2 patients. The cohort consisted of patients with moderate respiratory failure (n = 11) and severe respiratory failure (n = 10) at an acute stage (day 0–3) and in the later course of the disease (>7 days). All patients needed supplemental oxygen and severe patients were defined by the requirement of positive pressure ventilation (intubation). Levels of D-dimers, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin (IL)-6 were significantly higher in patients with severe compared with moderate respiratory failure. Concurrently, next generation sequencing (NGS) analysis demonstrated increased dysregulation of miRNA expression with progression of disease severity connected to extreme downregulation of miR-320a, miR-320b and miR-320c. Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis revealed involvement in the Hippo signaling pathway, the transforming growth factor (TGF)-β signaling pathway and in the regulation of adherens junctions. The expression of all miR-320 family members was significantly correlated with CRP, IL-6, and D-dimer levels. In conclusion, our analysis underlines the importance of thromboembolic processes in patients with respiratory failure and emphasizes miRNA-320s as potential biomarkers for severe progressive SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Background: To test the effect of urological primary cancers (bladder, kidney, testis, upper tract, penile, urethral) on overall mortality (OM) after secondary prostate cancer (PCa). Methods: Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, patients with urological primary cancers and concomitant secondary PCa (diagnosed 2004-2016) were identified and were matched in 1:4 fashion with primary PCa controls. OM was compared between secondary and primary PCa patients and stratified according to primary urological cancer type, as well as to time interval between primary urological cancer versus secondary PCa diagnoses. Results: We identified 5,987 patients with primary urological and secondary PCa (bladder, n = 3,287; kidney, n = 2,127; testis, n = 391; upper tract, n = 125; penile, n = 47; urethral, n = 10) versus 531,732 primary PCa patients. Except for small proportions of Gleason grade group and age at diagnosis, PCa characteristics between secondary and primary PCa were comparable. Conversely, proportions of secondary PCa patients which received radical prostatectomy were smaller (29.0 vs. 33.5%), while no local treatment rates were higher (34.2 vs. 26.3%). After 1:4 matching, secondary PCa patients exhibited worse OM than primary PCa patients, except for primary testis cancer. Here, no OM differences were recorded. Finally, subgroup analyses showed that the survival disadvantage of secondary PCa patients decreased with longer time interval since primary cancer diagnosis. Conclusions: After detailed matching for PCa characteristics, secondary PCa patients exhibit worse survival, except for testis cancer patients. The survival disadvantage is attenuated, when secondary PCa diagnosis is made after longer time interval, since primary urological cancer diagnosis.
Pseudocetherinae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) revisited: phylogeny and taxonomy of the lobe-headed bugs
(2022)
The concept of the previously monogeneric subfamily Pseudocetherinae (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Reduviidae) is revised and expanded. We here transfer Gerbelius Distant, 1903, Kayanocoris Miller, 1954, Microvarus Jeannel, 1917, Paragerbelius Miller, 1958, and Voconia Stål, 1866 from Reduviinae to Pseudocetherinae and treat Kayanocoris, Microvarus, Paragerbelius, and Pseudocethera Villiers, 1963 as junior synonyms of Voconia, resulting in new combinations for Voconia conradti (Jeannel, 1917) comb. nov., V. ifana (Villiers, 1963) comb. nov., V. monodi (Villiers, 1963) comb. nov., V. motoensis (Schouteden, 1929) comb. nov., V. ornata (Distant, 1903) comb. nov., V. schoutedeni (Villiers, 1964) comb. nov., V. typica (Miller, 1958) comb. nov., and V. wegneri (Miller, 1954) comb. nov. We also describe 23 new species of Voconia: V. bakeri sp. nov., V. bracata sp. nov., V. brachycephala sp. nov., V. chrysoptera sp. nov., V. coronata sp. nov., V. decorata sp. nov., V. dolichocephala sp. nov., V. fasciata sp. nov., V. grandioculata sp. nov., V. hemera sp. nov., V. isosceles sp. nov., V. laosensis sp. nov., V. lasiosoma sp. nov., V. lirophleps sp. nov., V. loki sp. nov., V. mexicana sp. nov., V. minima sp. nov., V. nyx sp. nov., V. smithae sp. nov., V. tridens sp. nov., V. trinidadensis sp. nov., V. tuberculata sp. nov., and V. vittata sp. nov. Lectotypes are designated for Gerbelius confluens Distant, 1903, G. typicus Distant, 1903, V. conradti comb. nov., V. ornata comb. nov., and V. pallidipes Stål, 1866. A revised diagnosis and description of Pseudocetherinae are provided along with photographs of the species and of the male genitalia of 13 pseudocetherine and five closely related reduviine species. An identification key to the two genera of Pseudocetherinae as well as a key to species of Voconia are presented. A phylogenetic hypothesis is proposed for the relationships of Pseudocetherinae using parsimony analyses of 77 morphological characters.
A new whitefly genus, Rudisculptus gen. nov. is described for its type species Rudisculptus caudalis gen. et sp. nov. feeding on Orophea katschallica Kurz (Annonaceae) from the Andaman Islands, India. Rudisculptus gen. nov. is similar to the New World genus, Aleuropleurocelus Drews & Sampson, 1956 and an Old World genus, Tetralicia Harrison, 1917 in pupal morphology, but differs in having the first abdominal setae, thoracic tracheal pores, caudal furrow, differentiated cephalothorax in slide mounts, the lingula excluded beyond the vasiform orifice. The new genus also differs from an Old World genus, Regiominutus Dubey, 2021 in habitus, pattern of wax secretion, shape, size, cuticle colour, raised lateral margin, extension of segment sutures and the lingula reaching outside the margin of the vasiform orifice, and in having the thoracic tracheal folds. Orophea katschallica is recorded as a new host plant for the whiteflies. Images of puparial habitus and types, line drawings and scanning electron microscope (SEM) microphotographs are provided.
We provide keys, descriptions and illustrations for 16 species of Scoliidae Latreille, 1802 found in Hong Kong, of which nine are new records for the territory, one is new to China and one is new to science: Scolia pakshaoensis sp. nov. The status of one species (Megacampsomeris sp. 1) remains uncertain; it may represent an additional new species.
An illustrated checklist of the Mollusca of Galicia Bank, a large and deep seamount off the NW Iberian Peninsula, is provided. The studied material was collected in 8 samples of Seamount 1 cruise (1987), 7 samples of ECOMARG 0709 (2009) and 36 samples of BANGAL 0711 (2011), between 615 and 1768 m. A total of 212 species are known to occur at the Galicia Bank (1 Monoplacophora, 7 Solenogastres, 3 Polyplacophora, 132 Gastropoda, 54 Bivalvia, 6 Scaphopoda, and 9 Cephalopoda), 21 of which from previous studies only. Four species are described as new, 34 species are first record in Spanish waters and another 20 species first record for the Northern Spanish waters. Over 7500 specimens, representing 104 species, were collected alive, and 87 species were represented by empty shells only. Only 53 species were detected in both Seamount 1 and BANGAL 0711; most of the species are rare and more species can be expected if exploration is continued. There is a marked difference in species composition between the summit platform (615‒1000 m) and the deeper part below 1500 m, with some genera (e.g., Colus and Limopsis) represented by alternative species. Endemism, if any, is very low and most of the species are widespread.
Large ants are not easy – the taxonomy of Dinoponera Roger (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Ponerinae)
(2021)
The taxonomy of the giant ants of the genus Dinoponera is revised based on female and male morphology. Eight species are recognized. Dinoponera nicinha sp. nov., from Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil, is described and D. grandis (Guérin-Méneville, 1838) is revived. The species D. australis Emery, 1901 and D. snellingi Lenhart, Dash & Mackay, 2013, plus the subspecies D. australis bucki Borgmeier, 1937 and D. australis nigricolor Borgmeier, 1937 are synonymized under D. grandis sp. rev. An unnamed and unidentified male is reported. In general, male morphology has greater and more discrete variation than in females, but they are scarce in museum collections. Species distributions are updated and illustrated, the genus ranging from southern Colombia to northern Argentina, with no reliable records from the Guiana Shield and all nominal species occurring in Brazil. Intraspecific variation and natural history are discussed. New illustrated identification keys are provided for both sexes. Future studies should address the collection of fresh specimens for molecular work and to assess the conservation status of several species and populations.
The diversity of Palpigradi is not evenly distributed among its different branches. The widespread genus Eukoenenia includes 80% of the species, while the other genera are poorly known. Allokoenenia certainly is the most understudied genus because it is represented only by the African species Allokoenenia afra Silvestri, 1913. Its description is short and does not include many features depicted in modern taxonomy of Palpigradi. In this paper, we describe two troglobitic species of Allokoenenia, report the occurrence of a third species represented by an immature specimen from Brazilian caves, and provide brief notes on the morphology of A. afra. Allokoenenia canhembora sp. nov., A. stygia sp. nov., and Allokoenenia sp. differ from A. afra by several morphological features, including more elongated appendages and a greater number of blades on lateral organs. Thus, they are considered troglomorphic. These new species are vulnerable to extinction because they are endemic to a single or few caves directly impacted by mining activities and groundwater exploitation. This study represents the first step for the conservation of these species and their habitats, since Brazilian caves with rare troglobites cannot be irreversibly impacted. Also, it brings important contributions on the distribution and morphology of this enigmatic genus.
Oxyethira Eaton, 1873 is one of the most diverse genera of Hydroptilidae, comprising over 240 species distributed in all biogeographical regions. Here three new species of Oxyethira (Trichoglene) Neboiss, 1977 are described and illustrated from male specimens collected in New Caledonia: O. (Trichoglene) hamus sp. nov., recognized by the hook-shaped apex of the long inferior appendages in lateral view and by the posterior margin of segment IX with a trilobed appearance in ventral view; O. (Trichoglene) rectangulata sp. nov., recognized by the rectangular shape of the inferior appendages, which are totally fused and with two pairs of small setae on the inner face; and O. (Trichoglene) spiralis sp. nov., recognized by the strongly curvilinear shape of the subgenital process in dorsal and lateral views and by the long process spiralling around the ejaculatory duct at the phallus apex.
Objective: To evaluate the prognostic impact of gastrointestinal involvement on the survival of children with Langerhans cell histiocytosis (GI-LCH) registered with the international clinical trials of the Histiocyte Society. Study design: This was a retrospective analysis of 2414 pediatric patients registered onto the consecutive trials DAL-HX 83, DAL-HX 90, LCH-I, LCH-II, and LCH-III. Results: Among the 1289 patients with single-system LCH, there was no single case confined to the GI tract; 114 of 1125 (10%) patients with multisystem LCH (MS-LCH) had GI-LCH at initial presentation. GI-LCH was significantly more common in children aged <2 years at diagnosis (13% vs 6% in those aged >2 years; P < .001) and in those with risk organ involvement (15% vs 6% in those without risk organ involvement; P < .001). The 5-year overall survival (OS) in patients without risk organ involvement was excellent irrespective of GI disease (98% vs 97% in patients with GI-LCH; P = .789). In patients with risk organ involvement, the 5-year OS was 51% in 70 patients with GI-LCH vs 72% in 394 patients without GI-LCH (P < .001). Conclusions: GI-LCH has an additive unfavorable prognostic impact in children with MS-LCH and risk organ involvement. The emerding need for more intensive or alternative treatments mandates prospective evaluation.
With the Earth system being about to leave Holocene conditions and thus the known safe operating space for humanity, frameworks such as the Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide quantitative metrics to guide sustainability transformations. In order to strive, not only for compliance with the PBs but also for societal well-being, some approaches attempt to combine both PBs and SDGs within a single assessment. We focus on two prominent examples, the “Doughnut” by Kate Raworth and the #SDGinPB project of the 2018 report to the Club of Rome, which are not only aimed at public outreach, but also at guiding policy-making. To meet these objectives, the approaches should possess a certain accuracy in determining the progress in achieving the SDGs and in complying with the PBs. We evaluate, by using a multi-indicator approach for comparison, whether both approaches’ limited set of indicators can still represent the SDGs’ complexity. This comparative approach estimates the progress in achieving SDGs, especially in the Global North, to be significantly lower. Based on these results and against the approaches’ purposes, we discuss their simplifications and at which point the results are no longer reliable. We conclude that global assessments can be an important factor in initiating transformative processes by stimulating public discourse, but that the actual implementation of these would require approaches with greater recognition of local particularities.
We combine structural analysis of fractures with 22 U–Pb dates measured in fracture-filling carbonate cements from bed-parallel fibrous calcite veins (beef), conjugated veins and faults within the Vaca Muerta Formation along the Andean fold and thrust belt in the Neuquén Basin. The measured ages constrain accurately the relationships between overpressures caused by hydrocarbon generation and Andean compression as mechanisms for natural fracturing and vein formation. Two generations of fibres have been identified in beef. The first one, consists of dark fibres from the inner zones, which are perpendicular to bedding and contain abundant cone-in-cone structures and hydrocarbon inclusions. U–Pb dating of these fibres yielded Early to Late Cretaceous ages from 116.7 ± 17.7 to 78.8 ± 10.2 Ma. The second generation of fibres corresponds to the outer zones and consists of white fibres oblique to bedding, indicating growth during layer-parallel shortening. Bed-perpendicular veins cutting beef yielded Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene dates from 72.8 ± 22.4 to 60.9 ± 10.4 Ma. Eocene ages from 52.0 ± 2.9 to 42.2 ± 18.9 Ma were measured in bed-parallel slip surfaces and reverse and strike-slip faults, whereas Miocene dates from 13.9 ± 2.6 to 6.2 ± 1.1 Ma were measured in E-W calcite veins. U–Pb dating of veins, structural analysis of fractures and subsidence curves, indicate that beef inner zones formed in the oil window during burial of the Neuquén basin, and that tectonic stresses could enhance their formation. Beef outer zones and bed-perpendicular veins formed during E-W Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene layer-parallel shortening. Contrarily, late Palaeocene-late Eocene bed-parallel slip surfaces and faults and Miocene E-W veins formed during NE-SW and E-W syn-to post-folding deformation, respectively. In both cases, syn-to post-folding compression occurred synchronously with forelandward migration of magmatic activity attributed to flat subduction of the Pacific slab beneath the Andes.
The impact of local environment characteristics on individual cycling behaviour has been discussed in transport research for several years. Many previous studies have, however, primarily focused on the presence and distribution of built environment elements, considered using georeferenced or census data. This paper argues that not only is the objectively measured environment an influencing factor, but also the individual perception of this environment. Furthermore, besides built elements, the evaluation of perceived non-built attributes, such as discourses and policies, as well as the environment’s impact on cycling attitudes, should be taken into account for a more comprehensive view. For this purpose, this study examines the responses to a household survey in the German city of Offenbach am Main (n = 701). The impact of the perceived local environment on cycling behaviour and cycling attitudes has been analysed using 21 perception items as well as socio-demographics, travel mode availability and general travel attitudes. For a more detailed view on cycling behaviour, this study applies the stage model of self-regulated behavioural change (SSBC) indicating a level of openness to use a bicycle frequently in everyday life. The results of the multivariate analysis show that the perceptions of built and non-built environment characteristics interrelate. Furthermore, certain perceptions encourage bicycle use and positive attitudes towards cycling, such as perceived cycling safety and pleasure. Primarily, these perceptions are safe and appropriate cycling infrastructures, cycling as a common practice and the absence of vandalism, dirt and high car pressure.
Objective: The term ‘precision medicine’ describes a rational treatment strategy tailored to one person that reverses or modifies the disease pathophysiology. In epilepsy, single case and small cohort reports document nascent precision medicine strategies in specific genetic epilepsies. The aim of this multicentre observational study was to investigate the deeper complexity of precision medicine in epilepsy. Methods: A systematic survey of patients with epilepsy with a molecular genetic diagnosis was conducted in six tertiary epilepsy centres including children and adults. A standardised questionnaire was used for data collection, including genetic findings and impact on clinical and therapeutic management. Results: We included 293 patients with genetic epilepsies, 137 children and 156 adults, 162 females and 131 males. Treatment changes were undertaken because of the genetic findings in 94 patients (32%), including rational precision medicine treatment and/or a treatment change prompted by the genetic diagnosis, but not directly related to known pathophysiological mechanisms. There was a rational precision medicine treatment for 56 patients (19%), and this was tried in 33/56 (59%) and was successful (ie, >50% seizure reduction) in 10/33 (30%) patients. In 73/293 (25%) patients there was a treatment change prompted by the genetic diagnosis, but not directly related to known pathophysiological mechanisms, and this was successful in 24/73 (33%). Significance: Our survey of clinical practice in specialised epilepsy centres shows high variability of clinical outcomes following the identification of a genetic cause for an epilepsy. Meaningful change in the treatment paradigm after genetic testing is not yet possible for many people with epilepsy. This systematic survey provides an overview of the current application of precision medicine in the epilepsies, and suggests the adoption of a more considered approach.
Abstract: Neurophysiological measures of preparation and attention are often atypical in ADHD. Still, replicated findings that these measures predict which patients improve after Neurofeedback (NF), reveal neurophysiological specificity, and reflect ADHD-severity are limited. Methods: We analyzed children’s preparatory (CNV) and attentional (Cue-P3) brain activity and behavioral performance during a cued Continuous Performance Task (CPT) before and after slow cortical potential (SCP)-NF or semi-active control treatment (electromyogram biofeedback). Mixed-effects models were performed with 103 participants at baseline and 77 were assessed for pre-post comparisons focusing on clinical outcome prediction, specific neurophysiological effects of NF, and associations with ADHD-severity. Results: Attentional and preparatory brain activity and performance were non-specifically reduced after treatment. Preparatory activity in the SCP-NF group increased with clinical improvement. Several performance and brain activity measures predicted non-specific treatment outcome. Conclusion: Specific neurophysiological effects after SCP-NF were limited to increased neural preparation associated with improvement on ADHD-subscales, but several performance and neurophysiological measures of attention predicted treatment outcome and reflected symptom severity in ADHD. The results may help to optimize treatment.
Korrektur zu: Roth C, Rettenmaier L and Behringer M (2021) High-Protein Energy-Restriction: Effects on Body Composition, Contractile Properties, Mood, and Sleep in Active Young College Students. Front. Sports Act. Living 3:683327. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2021.683327
The first part of this work addresses the automatic online tuning of transfer lines in particle accelerator facilities. In the second part the focus lies on the automatic construction and optimisation of such transport lines. It can be shown that genetic algorithms can be used very well for optimisation in both cases. Automatic online tuning can be performed very efficiently at accelerators under certain boundary conditions and is particularly well suited for initial beam commissioning with low intensity pilot beams. The construction of transfer lines can also be formulated and solved as an minimisation problem with an adopted parameterisation. Thereby, both the imaging properties of the beam transport and the robustness against error studies can be optimised at the same time.
Clean water is fundamental to human health and ecosystem integrity. However, water quality deteriorates due to novel anthropogenic pollutants present at microgram per liter concentrations in urban water cycles (termed micropollutants). Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have been identified as major point sources for aquatic (micro-)pollutants. Chemical and ecotoxicological analyses have shown that conventional biological WWTPs do not fully remove micropollutants and associated toxicities, which is often because of mobile, polar and/or recalcitrant compounds and transformation products (TPs). To minimize possible environmental risks, advanced wastewater treatment (AWWT) technologies could be a promising mitigation measure. Multiple processes are therefore being developed and evaluated such as ozonation and ozonation followed by granulated activated carbon (GAC) or biological filtration. Assessing the performance of these combined AWWTs was the focus the TransRisk project. Within this project, this thesis accomplished four major goals.
Firstly, the preparation of (waste)water samples was optimised for in vitro bioassays. Acidification, filtration and solid phase extraction (SPE) were tested for their impact on environmentally relevant in vitro endocrine activities, mutagenicity, genotoxicity and cytotoxicity. Significantly different outcomes of these assays were detected comparing neutral and acidified samples. Sample filtration had a lesser impact, but in some cases retention of particle-bound compounds could have caused significant toxicity losses. Out of three SPE sorbents the Telos C18/ENV at sample pH 2.5 extracted highest toxicity, some undetected in aqueous samples. These results indicate that sample preparation needs to be optimised for specific sample matrices and bioassays to avoid false-positive or -negative detects in effect-based analyses.
Secondly, the above listed in vitro toxicities were monitored in a protected region for drinking water production in South-West Germany (2012-2015). Out of 30 sampling sites surface water and groundwater were the least polluted. Nonetheless, a few groundwater samples induced high anti-estrogenic activity that prompted further monitoring. The latter included a waterworks in which no toxicity was detected. Hospital wastewater also had elevated in vitro toxicities and hospitals are, thus, relevant intervention points for source control. The biological WWTPs were effective in removing most of the detected toxicity, and the selected bioassays proved to be pertinent tools for water quality assessment and prioritisation of pollution hotspots.
Thirdly, the in vivo bioassay ISO10872 based on Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) was adapted for this thesis. Using this model, a median effect concentration (EC50) for reproductive toxicity of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon β-naphthoflavone (β- NF) of 114 µg/L was computed which is slightly lower than reported in the scientific literature. β-NF induced cyp-35A3::GFP (a biomarker in transgenic animals) in a time and concentration dependent manner (≤ 21.3–24 fold above controls). β-NF spiked wastewater samples supported earlier hypotheses on particle-bound pollutants. Reproductive toxicity (96 h) and cyp-35A3 induction (24 h) of biologically treated and/or ozonated wastewater extracts and growth promoting effects of GAC/biologically filtered ozonated wastewater extracts were observed. This suggested the presence of residual bioactive/toxic chemicals not included in the targeted chemical analysis. It also highlighted the importance of integrating multiple (apical and molecular) endpoints in wastewater assessments.
Fourthly, five in vitro and the adapted C. elegans bioassay were integrated into a wastewater quality evaluation (developed within TransRisk). Out of the five AWWT options, ozonation (at 1 g O3,applied/g DOC, HRT ~ 18 min) combined with nonaerated GAC filtration was rated most effective for toxicity removal. All five AWWTs largely removed estrogenic and (anti-)androgenic activities, but not anti-estrogenic activity and mutagenicity, which even increased during ozonation. This has been observed in related studies and points towards toxic TPs. These results also emphasized the need for implementing an effective post-treatment for ozonation. The results from a parallel in vivo study with Lumbriculus variegatus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum conducted on site at the WWTP (using flow through systems) were in accordance with the C. elegans results. In this context, it is suggested to further implement C. elegans as sensitive, feasible and ecologically relevant model.
In conclusion, this thesis shows how optimised sample preparation, long-term (in vitro) environmental monitoring, sensitive and ecologically relevant (in vivo) bioassays as well as innovative evaluation concepts, are pivotal in improving the removal of micropollutants and their toxicities with AWWTs. Future research should further develop and evaluate measures at sewer systems, conventional biological, tertiary and other advanced treatment technologies, as well as sociopolitical strategies (e.g., source control or natural conservation) and restoration projects. The effect-based tools optimised in this thesis will support assessing their success.
Analysing survival or fixation probabilities for a beneficial allele is a prominent task in the field of theoretical population genetics. Haldane's asymptotics is an approximation for the fixation probability in the case of a single beneficial mutant with small selective advantage in a large population.
In this thesis we analyse the interplay between genetic drift and directional selection and prove Haldane's asymptotics in different settings: For the fixation probability in Cannings models with moderate selection and for the survival probability of a slightly supercritical branching processes in a random environment.
In Chapter 3 we introduce a class of Cannings models with selection that allow for a forward and backward construction. In particular, a Cannings ancestral selection process can be defined for this class of models, which counts the number of potential parents and is in sampling duality to the forward frequency process. By means of this duality the probability of fixation can be expressed through the expectation of the Cannings ancestral selection process in stationarity. A control of this expectation yields that the fixation probability fulfils Haldane's asymptotics in a regime of moderately weak selection (Thm. 8).
In Chapter 4 we study the fixation probability of Cannings models in a regime of moderately strong selection. Here couplings of the frequency process of beneficial individuals with slightly supercritical Galton-Watson processes imply that the fixation probability is given by Haldane's asymptotics (Thm. 9).
Lastly, in Chapter 5 we consider slightly supercritical branching processes in an independent and identically distributed random environment and study the probability of survival as the number of expected offspring tends from above to one. We show that only if variance and expectation of the random offspring mean are of the same order the random environment has a non-trivial influence on the probability of survival, which results in a modification of Haldane's asymptotics. Out of the critical parameter regime the population goes extinct or survives with a probability that fulfils Haldane's asymptotics (Thm. 10).
The proof establishes an expression for the survival probability in terms of the shape function of the random offspring generating functions. This expression exhibits similarities to perpetuities known from a financial context. Consequently, we prove a limiting theorem for perpetuities with vanishing interest rates (Thm. 11).