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We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of the digital infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, theoretical considerations and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolve in each of these types of uncertainty by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommend guidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify our analysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.
This literature survey explores the potential avenues for the design of a green auto asset-backed security by focusing on the European auto securitization market. In this context, we examine the entire value chain of the securitization process to understand the incentives and interests involved at various stages of the transaction. We review recent regulatory developments, feasibility concerns, and potential designs of a sustainable securitization framework. Our study suggests that a Green Auto ABS should be based on both a green use of proceeds and a green collateral-based methodology.
We provide evidence on the extent to which survey items in the Preference Survey Module and the resulting Global Preference Survey measuring social preferences − trust, altruism, positive and negative reciprocity − predict behavior in corresponding experimental games outside the original participant sample of Falk et al. (2022). Our results, which are based on a replication study with university students in Tehran, Iran, are mixed. While quantitative items considering hypothetical versions of the experimental games correlate significantly and economically meaningfully with individual behavior, none of the qualitative items show significant correlations. The only exception is altruism where results correspond more closely to the original findings.
We develop a quantity-driven general equilibrium model that integrates the term structure of interest rates with the repurchase agreements (repo) market to shed light on the com-bined effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the bond and money markets. We characterize in closed form the endogenous dynamic interaction between bond prices and repo rates, and show (i) that repo specialness dampens the impact of any given quantity of asset pur-chases due to QE on the slope of the term structure and (ii) that bond scarcity resulting from QE increases repo specialness, thus strengthening the local supply channel of QE.
In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted monetary policy between 2002 and 2022 according to the weighted average of the inflation rates within the European Monetary Union (EMU) or reacted more strongly to the inflation rate developments of certain EMU countries.
The New Keynesian model first generates data which is used to train and evaluate several machine learning algorithms. They authors find that a neural network performs best out-of-sample. They use this algorithm to generally classify historical EMU data, and to determine the exact weight on the inflation rate of EMU members in each quarter of the past two decades. Their findings suggest disproportional emphasis of the ECB on the inflation rates of EMU members that exhibited high inflation rate volatility for the vast majority of the time frame considered (80%), with a median inflation weight of 67% on these countries. They show that these results stem from a tendency of the ECB to react more strongly to countries whose inflation rates exhibit greater deviations from their long-term trend.
Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, the authors study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, they analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, they conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. They find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% to 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
We analyze the performance of marketplace lending using loan cash flow data from the largest platform, Lending Club. We find substantial risk-adjusted performance of about 40 basis points per month for the entire loan portfolio. Other loan portfolios grouped by risk category have similar risk-adjusted performance. We show that characteristics of the local bank sector for each loan, such as concentration of deposits and the presence of national banks, are related to the performance of loans. Thus, marketplace lending has the potential to finance a growing share of the consumer credit market in the absence of a competitive response from the traditional incumbents.
The discount control mechanisms that closed-end funds often choose to adopt before IPO are supposedly implemented to narrow the difference between share price and net asset value. We find evidence that non-discretionary discount control mechanisms such as mandatory continuation votes serve as costly signals of information to reveal higher fund quality to investors. Rents of the skill signaled through the announcement of such policies accrue to managers rather than investors as differences in skill are revealed through growing assets under management rather than risk- adjusted performance.
Armstrong et al. (2022) review the empirical methods used in the accounting literature to draw causal inferences. They document a growing number of studies using quasi-experimental methods and provide a critical perspective on this trend as well as the use of these methods in the accounting literature. In this discussion, I complement their review by broadening the perspective. I argue for a design-based approach to accounting research that shifts attention from methods to the entire research design. I also discuss why studies that aim to draw causal inferences are important, how these studies fit into the scientific process, and why assessing the strength of the research design is important when evaluating studies and aggregating research findings.
Retained earnings and foreign portfolio ownership: implications for the current account debate
(2023)
In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012 to 2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5bn annually. This amounts to approximately five percent of Germany’s average official current account surplus (€226.6bn) across these years.
We find that high macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital, despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower depreciation and utilization of existing capital, which dominates the investment slowdown. Motivated by these dynamics, we develop a quantitative production-based model in which firms implement precautionary savings through reducing utilization rather than raising invest-ment. Through this novel intensive-margin mechanism, uncertainty shocks command a quarter of the equity premium in general equilibrium, while flexibility in utilization adjustments helps explain uncertainty risk exposures in the cross-section of industry returns.
We assemble a data set of more than eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index into uncertainty about sanctions against Russia, energy policy and other dimensions. We then estimate a VAR model with daily financial and macroeconomic data and identify an exogenous uncertainty shock. The increase in uncertainty has strong effects on financial markets and causes a significant decline in economic activity as well as an increase in expected inflation. We find the effects of uncertainty to be particularly strong in the first months of the war.
Flows of funds run by banks or by firms that belong to the same financial group as a bank are less volatile and less sensitive to bad past performance. This enables bank-affiliated funds to better weather distress and to hold lower precautionary cash buffers in comparison with their unaffiliated peers. Banks provide liquidity support to distressed affiliated funds by buying shares of those funds that are experiencing large outflows. This, in turn, diminishes the severity of strategic complementarities in investors’ redemptions. Liquidity support and other benefits of bank affiliation are conditional on the financial health of the parent company. Distress in the banking system spills over to the mutual fund sector via ownership links. Our research high-lights substantial dependencies between the banking system and the asset management industry, and identifies an important channel via which financial stability risks depend on the organisational structure of the financial sector.
Fund companies regularly send shareholder letters to their investors. We use textual analysis to investigate whether these letters’ writing style influences fund flows and whether it predicts performance and investment styles. Fund investors react to the tone and content of shareholder letters: A less negative tone leads to higher net flows. Thus, fund companies can use shareholder letters as a tactical instrument to influence flows. However, at the same time, a dishonest communication that is not consistent with the fund’s actual performance decreases flows. A positive writing style predicts higher idiosyncratic risk as well as more style bets, while there is no consistent predictive power for future performance.
Art-related non-fungible tokens (NFTs) took the digital art space by storm in 2021, generating massive amounts of volume and attracting a large number of users to a previously obscure part of blockchain technology. Still, very little is known about the attributes that influence the price of these digital assets. This paper attempts to evaluate the level of speculation associated with art NFTs, comprehend the characteristics that confer value on them and design a profitable trading strategy based on our findings. We analyze 860,067 art NFTs that have been deployed on the Ethereum blockchain and have been involved in 317,950 sales using machine learning methods to forecast the probability of sale, the trade frequency and the average price. We find that NFTs are highly speculative assets and that their price and recurrence of sale are heavily determined by the floor and the last sale prices, independent of any fundamental value.
Mamma mia! Revealing hidden heterogeneity by PCA-biplot : MPC puzzle for Italy's elderly poor
(2023)
I investigate consumption patterns in Italy and use a PCA-biplot to discover a consumption puzzle for the elderly poor. Data from the third wave (2017) of the Eurosystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) indicate that Italian poor old-aged households boast lower levels of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than suggested by the dominant consumption models. A customized regression analysis exhibits group differences with richer peers to be only half as large as prescribed by a traditional linear regression model. This analysis has benefited from a visualization technique for high-dimensional matrices related to the unsupervised machine learning literature. I demonstrate that PCA-biplots are a useful tool to reveal hidden relations and to help researchers to formulate simple research questions. The method is presented in detail and suggestions on incorporating it in the econometric modeling pipeline are given.
We investigate consumption patterns in Europe with supervised machine learning methods and reveal differences in age and wealth impact across countries. Using data from the third wave (2017) of the Eurosystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), we assess how age and (liquid) wealth affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in the Netherlands, Germany, France, and Italy. Our regression analysis takes the specification by Christelis et al. (2019) as a starting point. Decision trees are used to suggest alternative variable splits to create categorical variables for customized regression specifications. The results suggest an impact of differing wealth distributions and retirement systems across the studied Eurozone members and are relevant to European policy makers due to joint Eurozone monetary policy and increasing supranational fiscal authority of the EU. The analysis is further substantiated by a supervised machine learning analysis using a random forest and XGBoost algorithm.
Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In their proposed approach, the authors take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust rules that minimize the volatilities at those frequencies that policymakers are most interested in stabilizing. Compared to the status quo approach, their results suggest that policymakers should be more restrained in their inflation responses when their aim is to stabilize inflation and output growth at specific frequencies. Additional caution is called for due to model uncertainty.
This paper examines how the implementation of a new dark order - Midpoint Extended Life Order on NASDAQ - impacts financial markets stability in terms of occurrences of mini-flash crashes in individual securities. We use high-frequency order book data and apply panel regression analysis to estimate the effect of M-ELO trading on market stability and liquidity provision. The results suggest a predominance of a speed bump effect of M-ELO rather than a darkness effect. We find that the introduction of M-ELO increases market stability by reducing the average number of mini-flash crashes, but its impact on market quality is mixed.
I have assessed changes in the monetary policy stance in the euro area since its inception by applying a Bayesian time-varying parameter framework in conjunction with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. I find that the estimated policy response has varied considerably over time. Most of the results suggest that the response weakened after the onset of the financial crisis and while quantitative measures were still in place, although there are also indications that the weakening of the response to the expected inflation gap may have been less pronounced. I also find that the policy response has become more forceful over the course of the recent sharp rise in inflation. Furthermore, it is essential to model the stochastic volatility relating to deviations from the policy rule as it materially influences the results.