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A satellite-based climate record of monthly mean surface solar irradiance (SIS) is investigated with regard to possible inhomogeneities in time. The data record is provided by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) for the period of 1983 to 2005, covering a disk area between ±70° in latitude and longitude. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and two other homogeneity tests are applied with and without the use of reference SIS data (from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA -Interim reanalysis. The focus is on the detection of break-like inhomogeneities, which may occur due to satellite or SIS retrieval algorithm changes. In comparison with the few suitable BSRN SIS observation series with limited extension in time (no data before 1992), the CM SAF SIS time series do not show significant inhomogeneities, even though slight discrepancies in the surface measurements appear. The investigation of the full CM SAF SIS domain reveal inhomogeneities related to most of the documented satellite and retrieval changes, but only for relatively small domain fractions (especially in mountainous desert-like areas in Africa). In these regions the retrieval algorithm is not capable of adjusting for the changes of the satellite instruments. For other areas, e.g., Europe, no such breaks in the time series are found. We conclude that the CM SAF SIS data record has to be further assessed and regionally homogenized before climate trend investigations can be conducted.
In this study, two different methods were applied to derive daily and monthly sunshine duration based on high-resolution satellite products provided by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring using data from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager). The satellite products were either hourly cloud type or hourly surface incoming direct radiation. The satellite sunshine duration estimates were not found to be significantly different using the native 15-minute temporal resolution of SEVIRI. The satellite-based sunshine duration products give additional spatial information over the European continent compared with equivalent in situ-based products. An evaluation of the satellite sunshine duration by product intercomparison and against station measurements was carried out to determine their accuracy. The satellite data were found to be within ±1 h/day compared to high-quality Baseline Surface Radiation Network or surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) station measurements. The satellite-based products differ more over the oceans than over land, mainly because of the treatment of fractional clouds in the cloud type-based sunshine duration product. This paper presents the methods used to derive the satellite sunshine duration products and the performance of the different retrievals. The main benefits and disadvantages compared to station-based products are also discussed.
The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes.
A twentieth century-long coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling, Climate Limited-area Model) and NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) is studied here to evaluate the added value of coupled marginal seas over continental regions. The interactive coupling of the marginal seas, namely the Mediterranean, the North and the Baltic Seas, to the atmosphere in the European region gives a comprehensive modelling system. It is expected to be able to describe the climatological features of this geographically complex area even more precisely than an atmosphere-only climate model. The investigated variables are precipitation and 2 m temperature. Sensitivity studies are used to assess the impact of SST (sea surface temperature) changes over land areas. The different SST values affect the continental precipitation more than the 2 m temperature. The simulated variables are compared to the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) observational data, and also to the HOAPS/GPCC (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) data. In the coupled simulation, added skill is found primarily during winter over the eastern part of Europe. Our analysis shows that, over this region, the coupled system is dryer than the uncoupled system, both in terms of precipitation and soil moisture, which means a decrease in the bias of the system. Thus, the coupling improves the simulation of precipitation over the eastern part of Europe, due to cooler SST values and in consequence, drier soil.
Often in climate system studies, linear and symmetric statistical measures are applied to quantify interactions among subsystems or variables. However, they do not allow identification of the driving and responding subsystems. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to apply asymmetric measures from information theory: the axiomatically proposed transfer entropy and the first principle-based information flow to detect and quantify climate interactions. As their estimations are challenging, we initially tested nonparametric estimators like transfer entropy (TE)-binning, TE-kernel, and TE k-nearest neighbor and parametric estimators like TE-linear and information flow (IF)-linear with idealized two-dimensional test cases along with their sensitivity on sample size. Thereafter, we experimentally applied these methods to the Lorenz-96 model and to two real climate phenomena, i.e., (1) the Indo-Pacific Ocean coupling and (2) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–European air temperature coupling. As expected, the linear estimators work for linear systems but fail for strongly nonlinear systems. The TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators are reliable for linear and nonlinear systems. Nevertheless, the nonparametric methods are sensitive to parameter selection and sample size. Thus, this work proposes a composite use of the TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators along with parameter testing for consistent results. The revealed information exchange in Lorenz-96 is dominated by the slow subsystem component. For real climate phenomena, expected bidirectional information exchange between the Indian and Pacific SSTs was detected. Furthermore, expected information exchange from NAO to European air temperature was detected, but also unexpected reversal information exchange. The latter might hint to a hidden process driving both the NAO and European temperatures. Hence, the limitations, availability of time series length and the system at hand must be taken into account before drawing any conclusions from TE and IF-linear estimations.
Moisture sources of heavy precipitation in Central Europe in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones
(2022)
During the past century, several extreme summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. The processes intensifying the precipitation in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments are only partially understood. Our study aims to investigate these processes with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics for 16 selected Vb-events. Moreover, we analyse the characteristics of typical moisture source regions during 1107 Vb-events from 1901 to 2010 based on ERA-20C reanalysis dynamically downscaled with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. We observe moisture contributions by various source regions highlighting the complex dynamical interplay of different air masses leading to moisture convergence in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. Overall, up to 80% of the precipitation originates from the European continent, indicating the importance of continental moisture recycling, especially within the respective river catchment. Other major moisture uptake regions are the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and for a few events the Black Sea. Remarkably, anomalies in these oceanic source regions show no connection to precipitation amounts in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. In contrast, the Vb-cyclones with the highest precipitation are associated with anomalously high evaporation in the Mediterranean Sea, even though the Mediterranean Sea is only a minor moisture source region on average. Interestingly, the evaporation anomalies are not connected with sea-surface temperature but with wind-speed anomalies (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient R≈0.7, significant with p<0.01) indicating mainly dynamically driven evaporation. The particular role of the Mediterranean Sea hints towards possible importance of Mediterranean moisture for the early-stage intensification of Vb-cyclones and the pre-moistening of the continental uptake regions upstream of the target catchments.
The goal of limited area models (LAMs) is to downscale coarse-gridded general circulation model output to represent small-scale features of weather and climate. The LAM needs information from the driving coarse-gridded model passing through its lateral boundaries. The treatment of this information transfer causes inconsistencies between driving and nested models and, subsequently, issues in regional weather and climate simulations. This work examines errors arising from choices taken by the modeler (temporal update frequency of boundary data, spatial resolution jump, and numerical lateral boundary formulation) systematically in an idealized simulation environment. So-called Big-Brother Experiments were performed with the LAM COSMO-CLM (0.11° grid spacing). A baroclinic wave in a zonal channel was simulated over flat terrain with and without a Gaussian hill. The results reveal that the quality of the driving data, here represented by simulations only differing from the LAM simulations by reduced spatial resolution, dominates the performance of the nested model. Consequently, at the simulated mesoscale, the performance of the nested small-scale model simulations is weakly sensitive to the numerical lateral boundary formulation (Davies relaxation or the newly implemented, computationally less demanding Mesinger Eta-model formulation). The performance sensitivity to boundary update frequency and resolution jump is small when at least 6-hourly updates and a resolution jump factor of maximally six is used. Gaussian hill LAM simulations illustrated the strength of downscaling; they can represent small-scale features missing in the coarse-scale driving simulations. In the idealized simulation experiments, spectral nudging is not advisable as it imprints the driving models deficits on the nested simulation.
Background:Aedes aegypti is a potential vector for several arboviruses including dengue and Zika viruses. The species seems to be restricted to subtropical/tropical habitats and has difficulties in establishing permanent populations in southern Europe, probably due to constraints during the winter season. The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the cold tolerance (CT) of Ae. aegypti in its most cold-resistant life stage, the eggs.
Methods: The CT of Ae. aegypti eggs was compared with that of Ae. albopictus which is well established in large parts of Europe. By systematically studying the literature (meta-analysis), we recognized that CT has been rarely tested in Ae. aegypti eggs, but eggs can survive at zero and sub-zero temperatures for certain exposure periods. To overcome potential bias from experimental differences between studies, we then conducted species comparisons using a harmonized high-resolution CT measuring method. From subtropical populations of the same origin, the survival (hatching in %) and emergence of adults of both species were measured after zero and sub-zero temperature exposures for up to 9 days (3 °C, 0 °C and − 2 °C: ≤ 9 days; − 6 °C: ≤ 2 days).
Results: Our data show that Ae. aegypti eggs can survive low and sub-zero temperatures for a short time period similar to or even better than those of Ae. albopictus. Moreover, after short sub-zero exposures of eggs of both species, individuals still developed into viable adults (Ae. aegypti: 3 adults emerged after 6 days at − 2 °C, Ae. albopictus: 1 adult emerged after 1 day at − 6 °C).
Conclusions: Thus, both the literature and the present experimental data indicate that a cold winter may not be the preventing factor for the re-establishment of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti in southern Europe.
Container-breeding Aedes spp. (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes can be surveilled at low cost using ovitraps. Hence, this method is a preferred monitoring approach of dengue vectors in low-resource settings. The ovitraps consist of a cup filled with water and an oviposition substrate for female mosquitoes. The attractiveness of the substrates for female mosquitoes can greatly differ due to differences in texture, color, and smell of the materials used. We compare four oviposition substrates, which are all low priced, easy to transport, and easy to purchase, to maximize the success of Aedes egg sampling. Sampled egg material is often reared to adulthood for further taxonomic identification and transported to (international) laboratories for specialized vector research. Here we introduce a transport technique for sampled eggs. In addition, we explored the impact of international transport by means of a bilateral hatching experiment in Nepal, the country of origin, and in Germany, in a laboratory specialized in ecophysiological research. The best low-cost oviposition substrate for the dengue vectors Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes aegypti (L.) was found to be a white cotton sheet. The introduced transport technique of sampled eggs is easy to build from laboratory and household materials and ensures good transport conditions (i.e., temperature and relative humidity). Even under good temperature (17.4–31.0 °C) and humidity conditions (58.9–94.2%), hatching success of eggs was found to be reduced after international transport to Germany when compared to the hatching success of eggs in Nepal. We postulate that air pressure during international transport may have reduced the hatching success and strongly recommend pressure-regulated transport boxes for egg transport via airplane. As the proposed operation procedure is useful in assisting the monitoring of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti in low-resource settings, Aedes researchers are encouraged to follow it for the sampling and transport of Aedes eggs.
Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.