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Institute
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models -- their subjective understanding -- of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models -- a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.
No association between Parkinson disease and autoantibodies against NMDA-type glutamate receptors
(2019)
Background: IgG-class autoantibodies to N-Methyl-D-Aspartate (NMDA)-type glutamate receptors define a novel entity of autoimmune encephalitis. Studies examining the prevalence of NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies in patients with Parkinson disease with/without dementia produced conflicting results. We measured NMDA antibodies in a large, well phenotyped sample of Parkinson patients without and with cognitive impairment (n = 296) and controls (n = 295) free of neuropsychiatric disease. Detailed phenotyping and large numbers allowed statistically meaningful correlation of antibody status with diagnostic subgroups as well as quantitative indicators of disease severity and cognitive impairment.
Methods: NMDA antibodies were analysed in the serum of patients and controls using well established validated assays. We used anti-NMDA antibody positivity as the main independent variable and correlated it with disease status and phenotypic characteristics.
Results: The frequency of NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies was lower in Parkinson patients (13%) than in controls (22%) and higher than in previous studies in both groups. NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies were neither significantly associated with diagnostic subclasses of Parkinson disease according to cognitive impairment, nor with quantitative indicators of disease severity and cognitive impairment. A positive NMDA antibody status was positively correlated with age in controls but not in Parkinson patients.
Conclusion: It is unlikely albeit not impossible that NMDA antibodies play a significant role in the pathogenesis or progression of Parkinson disease e.g. to Parkinson disease with dementia, while NMDA IgG antibodies define a separate disease of its own.
Aim: The cytokine receptor tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 9 (TNFRSF9) is mainly considered to be a co-stimulatory activation marker in hematopoietic cells. Several preclinical models have shown a dramatic beneficial effect of treatment approaches targeting TNFRSF9 with agonistic antibodies. However, preliminary clinical phase I/II studies were stopped after the occurrence of several severe deleterious side effects. In a previous study, it was demonstrated that TNFRSF9 was strongly expressed by reactive astrocytes in primary central nervous system (CNS) tumors, but was largely absent from tumor or inflammatory cells. The aim of the present study was to address the cellular source of TNFRSF9 expression in the setting of human melanoma brain metastasis, a highly immunogenic tumor with a prominent tropism to the CNS.
Methods: Melanoma brain metastasis was analyzed in a cohort of 78 patients by immunohistochemistry for TNFRSF9 and its expression was correlated with clinicopathological parameters including sex, age, survival, tumor size, number of tumor spots, and BRAF V600E expression status.
Results: Tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 9 was frequently expressed independently on both melanoma and endothelial cells. In addition, TNFRSF9 was also present on smooth muscle cells of larger vessels and on a subset of lymphomonocytic tumor infiltrates. No association between TNFRSF9 expression and patient survival or other clinicopathological parameters was seen. Of note, several cases showed a gradual increase in TNFRSF9 expression on tumor cells with increasing distance from blood vessels, an observation that might be linked to hypoxia-driven TNFRSF9 expression in tumor cells.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that the cellular source of TNFRSF9 in melanoma brain metastasis largely exceeds the lymphomonocytic pool, and therefore further careful (re-) assessment of potential TNFRSF9 functions in cell types other than hematopoietic cells is needed. Furthermore, the hypothesis of hypoxia-driven TNFRSF9 expression in brain metastasis melanoma cells requires further functional testing.
Mitigating climate change necessitates global cooperation, yet global data on individuals’ willingness to act remain scarce. In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance, wherein individuals around the globe systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act. This perception gap, combined with individuals showing conditionally cooperative behaviour, poses challenges to further climate action. Therefore, raising awareness about the broad global support for climate action becomes critically important in promoting a unified response to climate change.