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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
The design and operation of innovative nuclear systems requires a better knowledge of the capture and fission cross sections of the Pu isotopes. For the case of capture on 242Pu, a reduction of the uncertainty in the fast region down to 8-12% is required. Moreover, aiming at improving the evaluation of the fast energy range in terms of average parameters, the OECD NEA High Priority Request List (HPRL) requests high-resolution capture measurements with improved accuracy below 2 keV. The current uncertainties also affect the thermal point, where previous experiments deviate from each other by 20%. A fruitful collaboration betwen JGU Mainz and HZ Dresden-Rossendorf within the EC CHANDA project resulted in a 242Pu sample consisting of a stack of seven fission-like targets making a total of 95(4) mg of 242Pu electrodeposited on thin (11.5 μm) aluminum backings. This contribution presents the results of a set of measurements of the 242Pu(n, γ) cross section from thermal to 500 keV combining different neutron beams and techniques. The thermal point was determined at the Budapest Research Reactor by means of Neutron Activation Analysis and Prompt Gamma Analysis, and the resolved (1 eV - 4 keV) and unresolved (1 - 500 keV) resonance regions were measured using a set of four Total Energy detectors at the CERN n_TOF-EAR1.
The experimental area 2 (EAR-2) at CERNs neutron time-of-flight facility (n_TOF), which is operational since 2014, is designed and built as a short-distance complement to the experimental area 1 (EAR-1). The Parallel Plate Avalanche Counter (PPAC) monitor experiment was performed to characterize the beam pro↓le and the shape of the neutron 'ux at EAR-2. The prompt γ-flash which is used for calibrating the time-of-flight at EAR-1 is not seen by PPAC at EAR-2, shedding light on the physical origin of this γ-flash.
he study of the resonant structures in neutron-nucleus cross-sections, and therefore of the compound-nucleus reaction mechanism, requires spectroscopic measurements to determine with high accuracy the energy of the neutron interacting with the material under study.
To this purpose, the neutron time-of-flight facility n_TOF has been operating since 2001 at CERN. Its characteristics, such as the high intensity instantaneous neutron flux, the wide energy range from thermal to few GeV, and the very good energy resolution, are perfectly suited to perform high-quality measurements of neutron-induced reaction cross sections. The precise and accurate knowledge of these cross sections plays a fundamental role in nuclear technologies, nuclear astrophysics and nuclear physics.
Two different measuring stations are available at the n_TOF facility, called EAR1 and EAR2, with different characteristics of intensity of the neutron flux and energy resolution. These experimental areas, combined with advanced detection systems lead to a great flexibility in performing challenging measurement of high precision and accuracy, and allow the investigation isotopes with very low cross sections, or available only in small quantities, or with very high specific activity.
The characteristics and performances of the two experimental areas of the n_TOF facility will be presented, together with the most important measurements performed to date and their physics case. In addition, the significant upcoming measurements will be introduced.
The Cosmological Lithium Problem refers to the large discrepancy between the abundance of primordial 7Li predicted by the standard theory of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the value inferred from the so-called “Spite plateau” in halo stars. A possible explanation for this longstanding puzzle in Nuclear Astrophysics is related to the incorrect estimation of the destruction rate of 7Be, which is responsible for the production of 95% of primordial Lithium. While charged-particle induced reactions have mostly been ruled out, data on the 7Be(n,α) and 7Be(n,p) reactions are scarce or completely missing, so that a large uncertainty still affects the abundance of 7Li predicted by the standard theory of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. Both reactions have been measured at the n_TOF facility at CERN, providing for the first time data in a wide neutron energy range.
The 33S(n,α)30Si cross section measurement, using 10B(n,α) as reference, at the n_TOF Experimental Area 2 (EAR2) facility at CERN is presented. Data from 0.01 eV to 100 keV are provided and, for the first time, the cross section is measured in the range from 0.01 eV to 10 keV. These data may be used for a future evaluation of the cross section because present evaluations exhibit large discrepancies. The 33S(n,α)30Si reaction is of interest in medical physics because of its possible use as a cooperative target to boron in Neutron Capture Therapy (NCT).
Neutron-induced reaction cross sections are important for a wide variety of research fields ranging from the study of nuclear level densities, nucleosynthesis to applications of nuclear technology like design, and criticality and safety assessment of existing and future nuclear reactors, radiation dosimetry, medical applications, nuclear waste transmutation, accelerator-driven systems and fuel cycle investigations. Simulations and calculations of nuclear technology applications largely rely on evaluated nuclear data libraries. The evaluations in these libraries are based both on experimental data and theoretical models. CERN’s neutron time-of-flight facility n_TOF has produced a considerable amount of experimental data since it has become fully operational with the start of its scientific measurement programme in 2001. While for a long period a single measurement station (EAR1) located at 185 m from the neutron production target was available, the construction of a second beam line at 20 m (EAR2) in 2014 has substantially increased the measurement capabilities of the facility. An outline of the experimental nuclear data activities at n_TOF will be presented.
Background: Although anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tear-prevention programs may be effective in the (secondary) prevention of a subsequent ACL injury, little is known, yet, on their effectiveness and feasibility. This study assesses the effects and implementation capacity of a secondary preventive motor-control training (the Stop-X program) after ACL reconstruction.
Methods and design: A multicenter, single-blind, randomized controlled, prospective, superiority, two-arm design is adopted. Subsequent patients (18–35 years) with primary arthroscopic unilateral ACL reconstruction with autologous hamstring graft are enrolled. Postoperative guideline rehabilitation plus Classic follow-up treatment and guideline rehabilitation plus the Stop-X intervention will be compared. The onset of the Stop-X program as part of the postoperative follow-up treatment is individualized and function based. The participants must be released for the training components. The endpoint is the unrestricted return to sport (RTS) decision. Before (where applicable) reconstruction and after the clearance for the intervention (aimed at 4–8 months post surgery) until the unrestricted RTS decision (but at least until 12 months post surgery), all outcomes will be assessed once a month. Each participant is consequently measured at least five times to a maximum of 12 times. Twelve, 18 and 24 months after the surgery, follow-up-measurements and recurrence monitoring will follow. The primary outcome assessement (normalized knee-separation distance at the Drop Jump Screening Test (DJST)) is followed by the functional secondary outcomes assessements. The latter consist of quality assessments during simple (combined) balance side, balance front and single-leg hops for distance. All hop/jump tests are self-administered and filmed from the frontal view (3-m distance). All videos are transferred using safe big content transfer and subsequently (and blinded) expertly video-rated. Secondary outcomes are questionnaires on patient-reported knee function, kinesiophobia, RTS after ACL injury and training/therapy volume (frequency – intensity – type and time). All questionnaires are completed online using the participants’ pseudonym only.
Group allocation is executed randomly. The training intervention (Stop-X arm) consists of self-administered home-based exercises. The exercises are step-wise graduated and follow wound healing and functional restoration criteria. The training frequency for both arms is scheduled to be three times per week, each time for a 30 min duration. The program follows current (secondary) prevention guidelines.
Repeated measurements gain-score analyses using analyses of (co-)variance are performed for all outcomes.
Trial registration: German Clinical Trials Register, identification number DRKS00015313. Registered on 1 October 2018.
Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio‐economic challenges.
The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post‐2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low‐ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge.
Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.
Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence‐based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures.
The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632).
A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
Maintenance therapy after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is conceptually attractive to prevent relapse, but has been hampered by the limited number of suitable anti-leukemic agents. The deacetylase inhibitor (DACi) panobinostat demonstrated moderate anti-leukemic activity in a small subset of patients with advanced AML and high-risk MDS in phase I/II trials.1, 2 It also displays immunomodulatory activity3 that may enhance leukemia-specific cytotoxicity4 and mitigate graft versus host disease (GvHD), but conversely could impair T- and NK cell function.5, 6 We conducted this open-label, multi-center phase I/II trial (NCT01451268) to assess the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of prolonged prophylactic administration of panobinostat after HSCT for AML or MDS. The study protocol was approved by an independent ethics committee and conducted in compliance with the Declaration of Helsinki. All patients provided written informed consent. ...
Background: Simultaneous pancreas kidney transplantation (SPK), pancreas transplantation alone (PTA) or pancreas transplantation after kidney (PAK) are the only curative treatment options for patients with type 1 (juvenile) diabetes mellitus with or without impaired renal function. Unfortunately, transplant waiting lists for this indication are increasing because the current organ acceptability criteria are restrictive; morbidity and mortality significantly increase with time on the waitlist. Currently, only pancreas organs from donors younger than 50 years of age and with a body mass index (BMI) less than 30 are allocated for transplantation in the Eurotransplant (ET) area. To address this issue we designed a study to increase the available donor pool for these patients.
Methods/Design: This study is a prospective, multicenter (20 German centers), single blinded, non-randomized, two armed trial comparing outcome after SPK, PTA or PAK between organs with the currently allowed donor criteria versus selected organs from donors with extended criteria. Extended donor criteria are defined as organs procured from donors with a BMI of 30 to 34 or a donor age between 50 and 60 years. Immunosuppression is generally standardized using induction therapy with Myfortic, tacrolimus and low dose steroids. In principle, all patients on the waitlist for primary SPK, PTA or PAK are eligible for the clinical trial when they consent to possibly receiving an extended donor criteria organ. Patients receiving an organ meeting the current standard criteria for pancreas allocation (control arm) are compared to those receiving extended criteria organ (study arm); patients are blinded for a follow-up period of one year. The combined primary endpoint is survival of the pancreas allograft and pancreas allograft function after three months, as an early relevant outcome parameter for pancreas transplantation.
Discussion: The EXPAND Study has been initiated to investigate the hypothesis that locally allocated extended criteria organs can be transplanted with similar results compared to the currently allowed standard ET organ allocation. If our study shows a favorable comparison to standard organ allocation criteria, the morbidity and mortality for patients waiting for transplantation could be reduced in the future.
Trial registered at: NCT01384006
Background: Despite novel therapeutic agents, most multiple myeloma (MM) patients eventually relapse. Two large phase III trials have shown significantly improved response rates (RR) of lenalidomide/dexamethasone compared with placebo/dexamethasone in relapsed MM (RMM) patients. These results have led to the approval of lenalidomide for RMM patients and lenalidomide/dexamethasone has since become a widely accepted second-line treatment. Furthermore, in RMM patients consolidation with high-dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation has been shown to significantly increase progression free survival (PFS) as compared to cyclophosphamide in a phase III trial. The randomized prospective ReLApsE trial is designed to evaluate PFS after lenalidomide/dexamethasone induction, high-dose chemotherapy consolidation plus autologous stem cell transplantation and lenalidomide maintenance compared with the well-established lenalidomide/dexamethasone regimen in RMM patients.
Methods/Design: ReLApsE is a randomized, open, multicenter phase III trial in a planned study population of 282 RMM patients. All patients receive three lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycles and - in absence of available stem cells from earlier harvesting - undergo peripheral blood stem cell mobilization and harvesting. Subsequently, patients in arm A continue on consecutive lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycles, patients in arm B undergo high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation followed by lenalidomide maintenance until discontinuation criteria are met. Therapeutic response is evaluated after the 3rd (arm A + B) and the 5th lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycle (arm A) or 2 months after autologous stem cell transplantation (arm B) and every 3 months thereafter (arm A + B). After finishing the study treatment, patients are followed up for survival and subsequent myeloma therapies. The expected trial duration is 6.25 years from first patient in to last patient out. The primary endpoint is PFS, secondary endpoints include overall survival (OS), RR, time to best response and the influence of early versus late salvage high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation on OS.
Discussion: This phase III trial is designed to evaluate whether high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation and lenalidomide maintenance after lenalidomide/dexamethasone induction improves PFS compared with the well-established continued lenalidomide/dexamethasone regimen in RMM patients. Trial registration: ISRCTN16345835 (date of registration 2010-08-24).
Das T-lymphoblastische Lymphom (T-LBL) ist eine seltene Form des Non-Hodgkin-Lymphoms (NHL). Als wirksamste Behandlung haben sich intensive Therapien analog zu Protokollen für die akute lymphoblastische Leukämien (ALL) etabliert. Auch bei Erwachsenen werden inzwischen hohe CR-Raten erreicht. Aufgrund einer Rezidivrate von 20–35 % und einem Überleben von 45–75% besteht jedoch der Bedarf einer weiteren Therapieoptimierung. Dieses Ziel wird von der multizentrischen deutschen Studiengruppe für die ALL des Erwachsenen (GMALL) verfolgt, die prospektive Studien durchgeführt und eigene Therapieempfehlungen evaluiert hat.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde die Effektivität der GMALL-Studientherapie T-LBL 1/2004 und der GMALL-Konsensus-Empfehlung für die Therapie neu diagnostizierter T-LBL bei Erwachsenen untersucht. Hauptaugenmerk lag auf der Auswertung der Gesamtergebnisse und der Evaluierung potentiell prognostischer Faktoren. Eine weitere wesentliche Fragestellung war es, die Bedeutung der Mediastinalbestrahlung in der Erstlinientherapie für das Therapieergebnis zu evaluieren. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt war die Evaluation der Bedeutung eines Interimstagings mittels PET. Zusätzlich wurde die Wirksamkeit verschiedener Salvageansätze bei primärem Therapieversagen und Rezidiv evaluiert.
Ausgewertet wurden Daten von 149 Patienten, die zwischen 2004 und 2013 in zwei konsekutiven Kohorten gemäß der Studie GMALL T-LBL 01/2004 (Kohorte I; n = 101) oder der GMALL-Therapieempfehlung (Kohorte II; n = 48) behandelt wurden. Die empfohlene Therapie beinhaltete zwei Induktionsblöcke, die Reinduktion sowie sechs Konsolidationsblöcke. Die ZNS-Prophylaxe bestand aus intrathekalen Chemotherapiegaben und eine Schädelbestrahlung mit 24 Gy. Patienten, die gemäß der Studie 01/2004 behandelt wurden, sollten nach der Induktion außerdem eine Mediastinalbestrahlung mit 36 Gy erhalten. Patienten ohne CR/CRu nach dem ersten Konsolidationsblock sollten einer Salvagetherapie außerhalb des Studienprotokolls oder der Therapieempfehlung zugeführt werden. Bei mittels CT bestimmter CRu oder PR zu diesem Zeitpunkt wurde zur Sicherung des Remissionsstatus eine PET empfohlen.
Die CR-Rate der Gesamtpopulation lag bei 76 %. Das Gesamtüberleben und das erkrankungsfreie Überleben nach zwei Jahren lagen bei 72 bzw. 70 %. Die Rezidivrate betrug 28 %, die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit ein Jahr nach Rezidivdiagnose lag bei 35 %. Es bestand kein statistisch signifikanter Unterschied zwischen den Überlebensraten von Patienten mit und ohne Mediastinalbestrahlung (bestrahlte Patienten der Kohorte vs. Patienten der Kohorte II). Alle Patienten mit computertomographisch ermittelter CRu nach Konsolidation I, bei denen eine konfirmatorische PET durchgeführt wurde (n=21), waren PET-negativ, d. h. in metabolischer CR. Von den PET-evaluierten Patienten mit computertomographisch ermittelter PR (n = 22) waren 55 % PET-negativ. In der Gesamtpopulation wurden zahlreiche potentielle Prognosefaktoren analysiert. Statistische Signifikanz erreichte dabei nur der Allgemeinzustand. Ein ECOG-Score von 0–1 war mit einem günstigeren erkrankungsfreien Überleben assoziiert.
Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Effektivität der GMALL-Therapie. Der Verzicht auf die Mediastinalbestrahlung in der Therapieempfehlung war nicht mit einer Verschlechterung des Therapieergebnisses verbunden. Die Arbeit verdeutlicht die Komplexität der frühen Remissionsbeurteilung mit verschiedenen Verfahren im Versorgungsstandard und unterstreicht den dringenden Bedarf einer standardisierten Remissionsbeurteilung und Referenzbefundung. Die PET erwies sich als wichtiges Instrument des Interimstagings, um eine remissionsabhängige Therapiestratifikation sinnvoll durchführen zu können. Sie zeigte sich zudem als unerlässlich für die korrekte Bewertung der Effektivität von Salvagestrategien und damit für die Therapieoptimierung bei primärer Refraktärität.
Die in dieser Arbeit ausgewerteten Daten bilden die bisher größte berichtete Population einheitlich behandelter erwachsener T-LBL Patienten ab. Die Ergebnisse stellen eine wichtige Grundlage für die weitere Therapieoptimierung im Rahmen der aktuell laufenden GMALL-Studie 08/2013 dar.
Background: Patients with Ph-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), such as polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), are at increased risk for thrombosis/thromboembolism and major bleeding. Due to the morbidity and mortality of these events, antiplatelet and/or anticoagulant agents are commonly employed as primary and/or secondary prophylaxis. On the other hand, disease-related bleeding complications (i.e., from esophageal varices) are common in patients with MPN. This analysis was performed to define the frequency of such events, identify risk factors, and assess antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy in a cohort of patients with MPN.
Methods: The MPN registry of the Study Alliance Leukemia is a non-interventional prospective study including adult patients with an MPN according to WHO criteria (2008). For statistical analysis, descriptive methods and tests for significant differences as well as contingency tables were used to identify the odds of potential risk factors for vascular events.
Results: MPN subgroups significantly differed in sex distribution, age at diagnosis, blood counts, LDH levels, JAK2V617F positivity, and spleen size (length). While most thromboembolic events occurred around the time of MPN diagnosis, one third of these events occurred after that date. Splanchnic vein thrombosis was most frequent in post-PV-MF and MPN-U patients. The chance of developing a thromboembolic event was significantly elevated if patients suffered from post-PV-MF (OR 3.43; 95 % CI = 1.39–8.48) and splenomegaly (OR 1.76; 95 % CI = 1.15–2.71). Significant odds for major bleeding were previous thromboembolic events (OR = 2.71; 95 % CI = 1.36–5.40), splenomegaly (OR = 2.22; 95 % CI 1.01–4.89), and the administration of heparin (OR = 5.64; 95 % CI = 1.84–17.34). Major bleeding episodes were significantly less frequent in ET patients compared to other MPN subgroups.
Conclusions: Together, this report on an unselected "real-world" cohort of German MPN patients reveals important data on the prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment of thromboembolic and major bleeding complications of MPN.
Gene-modified autologous hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) can provide ample clinical benefits to subjects suffering from X-linked chronic granulomatous disease (X-CGD), a rare inherited immunodeficiency characterized by recurrent, often life-threatening bacterial and fungal infections. Here we report on the molecular and cellular events observed in two young adults with X-CGD treated by gene therapy in 2004. After the initial resolution of bacterial and fungal infections, both subjects showed silencing of transgene expression due to methylation of the viral promoter, and myelodysplasia with monosomy 7 as a result of insertional activation of ecotropic viral integration site 1 (EVI1). One subject died from overwhelming sepsis 27 months after gene therapy, whereas a second subject underwent an allogeneic HSC transplantation. Our data show that forced overexpression of EVI1 in human cells disrupts normal centrosome duplication, linking EVI1 activation to the development of genomic instability, monosomy 7 and clonal progression toward myelodysplasia.
The KASCADE-Grande experiment has significantly contributed to the current knowledge about the energy spectrum and composition of cosmic rays for energies between the knee and the ankle. Meanwhile, post-LHC versions of the hadronic interaction models are available and used to interpret the entire data set of KASCADE-Grande. In addition, a new, combined analysis of both arrays, KASCADE and Grande, was developed significantly increasing the accuracy of the shower observables. First results of the new analysis with the entire data set of the KASCADE-Grande experiment will be the focus of this contribution.
High attrition rates of novel anti-cancer drugs highlight the need for improved models to predict toxicity. Although polo-like kinase 1 (Plk1) inhibitors are attractive candidates for drug development, the role of Plk1 in primary cells remains widely unexplored. Therefore, we evaluated the utility of an RNA interference-based model to assess responses to an inducible knockdown (iKD) of Plk1 in adult mice. Here we show that Plk1 silencing can be achieved in several organs, although adverse events are rare. We compared responses in Plk1-iKD mice with those in primary cells kept under controlled culture conditions. In contrast to the addiction of many cancer cell lines to the non-oncogene Plk1, the primary cells' proliferation, spindle assembly and apoptosis exhibit only a low dependency on Plk1. Responses to Plk1-depletion, both in cultured primary cells and in our iKD-mouse model, correspond well and thus provide the basis for using validated iKD mice in predicting responses to therapeutic interventions.