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An accelerating Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is a robust signal of climate change in model predictions but has been questioned by trace gas observations. We analyze stratospheric mean age of air and the full age spectrum as measures for the BDC and its trend. Age of air is calculated with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data to assess the robustness of the representation of the BDC in current generation meteorological reanalyses. We find that climatological mean age significantly depends on the reanalysis, with JRA-55 showing the youngest and MERRA-2 the oldest mean age. Consideration of the age spectrum indicates that the older age for MERRA-2 is related to a stronger spectrum tail, likely related to weaker tropical upwelling and stronger recirculation. Seasonality of stratospheric transport is robustly represented in reanalyses, with similar mean age variations and age spectrum peaks. Long-term changes over 1989–2015 turn out to be similar for the reanalyses with mainly decreasing mean age accompanied by a shift of the age spectrum peak towards shorter transit times, resembling the forced response in climate model simulations to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. For the shorter periods 1989–2001 and 2002–2015 age of air changes are less robust. Only ERA-Interim shows the hemispheric dipole pattern in age changes during 2002–2015 as viewed by recent satellite observations. Consequently, the representation of decadal variability of the BDC in current generation reanalyses appears less robust and a major uncertainty of modelling the BDC.
In this study, we construct a new monthly zonal mean carbon dioxide (CO2) distribution from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere over the 2000–2010 time period. This reconstructed CO2 product is based on a Lagrangian backward trajectory model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorology and tropospheric CO2 measurements. Comparisons of our CO2 product to extratropical in situ measurements from aircraft transects and balloon profiles show remarkably good agreement. The main features of the CO2 distribution include (1) relatively large mixing ratios in the tropical stratosphere; (2) seasonal variability in the extratropics, with relatively high mixing ratios in the summer and autumn hemisphere in the 15–20 km altitude layer; and (3) decreasing mixing ratios with increasing altitude from the upper troposphere to the middle stratosphere ( ∼ 35 km). These features are consistent with expected variability due to the transport of long-lived trace gases by the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The method used here to construct this CO2 product is unique from other modelling efforts and should be useful for model and satellite validation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere as a prior for inversion modelling and to analyse features of stratosphere–troposphere exchange as well as the stratospheric circulation and its variability.
In this study, we aim to reconstruct a relevant and new database of monthly zonal mean distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) at global scale extending from the upper-troposphere (UT) to stratosphere (S). This product can be used for model and satellite validation in the UT/S, as a prior for inversion modelling and mainly to analyse a plausible feature of the stratospherictropospheric exchange as well as the stratospheric circulation and its variability. To do so, we investigate the ability of a Lagrangian trajectory model guided by ERA-Interim reanalysis to construct the CO2 abundance in the UT/S. From 10 year backward trajectories and tropospheric observations of CO2, we reconstruct upper-tropospheric and stratospheric CO2 over the period 2000–2010. The inter-comparisons of the reconstructed CO2 with mid-latitude vertical profiles measured by balloon samples as well as quasi-horizontal air samples from ER-2 aircraft during SOLVE and CONTRAIL campaigns exhibit a remarkable agreement. That demonstrates the potential of Lagrangian model to reconstruct CO2 in the UT/S. The zonal mean distribution exhibits relatively large CO2 in the tropical stratosphere due to the seasonal variation of the tropical upwelling of Brewer-Dobson circulation. During winter and spring, the tropical pipe is relatively isolated but is less confined during summer and autumn so that high CO2 values are more readily transported out of the tropics to the mid- and high latitude stratosphere. The shape of the vertical profiles suggests that relatively high CO2 above 20 km altitude mainly enter the stratosphere through tropical upwelling. CO2 mixing ratio is relatively low in the polar and tropical regions above 25 km. On average the CO2 mixing ratio decreases with altitude by 6-8 ppmv from the UT to stratosphere (e.g. up to 35 km) and is nearly constant with altitude.
This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of stratospheric mean age of air, including the full age spectrum, with the Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), driven by reanalysis winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-based results are compared to results based on the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a significantly slower BDC for ERA5 than for ERA-Interim, manifesting in weaker diabatic heating rates and higher age of air. In the tropical lower stratosphere, heating rates are 30 %–40 % weaker in ERA5, likely correcting a bias in ERA-Interim. At 20 km and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere, ERA5 age values are around the upper margin of the uncertainty range from historical tracer observations, indicating a somewhat slow–biased BDC. The age trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, as climate models predict in response to global warming. However, the age decrease is not linear but steplike, potentially caused by multi-annual variability or changes in the observations included in the assimilation. During the 2002–2012 period, the ERA5 age shows a similar hemispheric dipole trend pattern as ERA-Interim, with age increasing in the NH and decreasing in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Shifts in the age spectrum peak and residual circulation transit times indicate that reanalysis differences in age are likely caused by differences in the residual circulation. In particular, the shallow BDC branch accelerates in both reanalyses, whereas the deep branch accelerates in ERA5 and decelerates in ERA-Interim.
