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Moisture sources of heavy precipitation in Central Europe in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones
(2022)
During the past century, several extreme summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. The processes intensifying the precipitation in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments are only partially understood. Our study aims to investigate these processes with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics for 16 selected Vb-events. Moreover, we analyse the characteristics of typical moisture source regions during 1107 Vb-events from 1901 to 2010 based on ERA-20C reanalysis dynamically downscaled with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. We observe moisture contributions by various source regions highlighting the complex dynamical interplay of different air masses leading to moisture convergence in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. Overall, up to 80% of the precipitation originates from the European continent, indicating the importance of continental moisture recycling, especially within the respective river catchment. Other major moisture uptake regions are the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and for a few events the Black Sea. Remarkably, anomalies in these oceanic source regions show no connection to precipitation amounts in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. In contrast, the Vb-cyclones with the highest precipitation are associated with anomalously high evaporation in the Mediterranean Sea, even though the Mediterranean Sea is only a minor moisture source region on average. Interestingly, the evaporation anomalies are not connected with sea-surface temperature but with wind-speed anomalies (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient R≈0.7, significant with p<0.01) indicating mainly dynamically driven evaporation. The particular role of the Mediterranean Sea hints towards possible importance of Mediterranean moisture for the early-stage intensification of Vb-cyclones and the pre-moistening of the continental uptake regions upstream of the target catchments.
Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.