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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Using combined data from the Relativistic Heavy Ion and Large Hadron Colliders, we constrain the shear and bulk viscosities of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) at temperatures of ∼150–350 MeV. We use Bayesian inference to translate experimental and theoretical uncertainties into probabilistic constraints for the viscosities. With Bayesian model averaging we propagate an estimate of the model uncertainty generated by the transition from hydrodynamics to hadron transport in the plasma’s final evolution stage, providing the most reliable phenomenological constraints to date on the QGP viscosities.
In memory of Edward Diener: reflections on his career, contributions and the science of happiness
(2021)
Prof. Edward (Ed) Diener (1946-2021), a pioneer in positive psychology, passed away on the 27th of April 2021 at his home in Salt Lake City, Utah (Salt Lake City Tribune, 2021). As one of the most influential psychologists of the discipline, Ed Diener pushed the boundaries of our understanding of positive psychological functioning, subjective well-being, and happiness (Layous, 2020). As one of the Top 200 most cited researchers across all disciplines and fields, he will be most remembered for founding the scientific study of subjective well-being (SWB) and happiness (Bakshi, 2019). Diener developed the concept of subjective well-being by exploring the factors that influence people's life satisfaction (Diener et al., 2017a). He studied the individual causes of subjective well-being, such as close social relationships, income, meaning and purpose, personality, and societal causes, such as economic development, low corruption and crime, and a healthy environment (Diener et al., 2018). His research has discovered both universal and culture-specific causes and consequences of SWB and influenced governmental policy (Oishi et al., 1999). In respect of his memory, the purpose of this paper is threefold: (a) to reflect upon his career journey, (b) to celebrate his significant contributions to the discipline, and (c) to provide personal reflections of those who worked closely with him over the past 50 years.
In this letter we report the first multi-differential measurement of correlated pion-proton pairs from 2 billion Au+Au collisions at sNN=2.42 GeV collected with HADES. In this energy regime the population of Δ(1232) resonances plays an important role in the way energy is distributed between intrinsic excitation energy and kinetic energy of the hadrons in the fireball. The triple differential d3N/dMπ±pdpTdy distributions of correlated π±p pairs have been determined by subtracting the πp combinatorial background using an iterative method. The invariant-mass distributions in the Δ(1232) mass region show strong deviations from a Breit-Wigner function with vacuum width and mass. The yield of correlated pion-proton pairs exhibits a complex isospin, rapidity and transverse-momentum dependence. In the invariant mass range 1.1<Minv(GeV/c2)<1.4, the yield is found to be similar for π+p and π−p pairs, and to follow a power law 〈Apart〉α, where 〈Apart〉 is the mean number of participating nucleons. The exponent α depends strongly on the pair transverse momentum (pT) while its pT-integrated and charge-averaged value is α=1.5±0.08st±0.2sy.
Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries. Methods: Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun’s electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries). Results: This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p < 0.01. Conclusion: A large change in solar insolation, both between winter and summer and between the minimum and maximum monthly values, may increase the risk of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder. With frequent circadian rhythm dysfunction and suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder, greater understanding of the optimal roles of daylight and electric lighting in circadian entrainment is needed.