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Background/aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide. Early identification of patients at risk for HCC recurrence is of paramount importance since early treatment of recurrent HCC after LT may be associated with increased survival. We evaluated incidence of and predictors for HCC recurrence, with a focus on the course of AFP levels.
Methods: We performed a retrospective, single-center study of 99 HCC patients who underwent LT between January 28th, 1997 and May 11th, 2016. A multi-stage proportional hazards model with three stages was used to evaluate potential predictive markers, both by univariate and multivariable analysis, for influences on 1) recurrence after transplantation, 2) mortality without HCC recurrence, and 3) mortality after recurrence.
Results: 19/99 HCC patients showed recurrence after LT. Waiting time was not associated with overall HCC recurrence (HR = 1, p = 0.979). Similarly, waiting time did not affect mortality in LT recipients both with (HR = 0.97, p = 0.282) or without (HR = 0.99, p = 0.685) HCC recurrence. Log10-transformed AFP values at the time of LT (HR 1.75, p = 0.023) as well as after LT (HR 2.07, p = 0.037) were significantly associated with recurrence. Median survival in patients with a ratio (AFP at recurrence divided by AFP 3 months before recurrence) of 0.5 was greater than 70 months, as compared to a median of only 8 months in patients with a ratio of 5.
Conclusion: A rise in AFP levels rather than an absolute threshold could help to identify patients at short-term risk for HCC recurrence post LT, which may allow intensification of the surveillance strategy on an individualized basis.
Low platelet count predicts reduced survival in potentially resectable hepatocellular carcinoma
(2022)
The prognostic role of platelet count in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear, and in fact both thrombocytopenia and thrombocytosis are reported as predictors of unfavourable outcomes. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of preoperative platelet count in potentially resectable HCC. We retrospectively reviewed 128 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC at a tertiary academic centre (2007–2019). Patient data were modelled by regression analysis, and platelet count was treated as a continuous variable. 89 patients had BCLC 0/A tumours and 39 had BCLC B tumours. Platelet count was higher in patients with larger tumours and lower in patients with higher MELD scores, advanced fibrosis, and portal hypertension (p < 0.001 for all listed variables). After adjusting for BCLC stage and tumour diameter, low platelet count associated with reduced overall survival (hazard ratio 1.25 per 50/nL decrease in platelet count, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.53, p = 0.034) and increased perioperative mortality (odds ratio 1.96 per 50/nL decrease in platelet count, 95% CI 1.19–3.53, p = 0.014). Overall, low platelet count correlates with increased liver disease severity, inferior survival, and excess perioperative mortality in resectable HCC. These insights might be applied in clinical practice to better select patients for resection.