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The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.
Poster presentation: The brain is autonomously active and this self-sustained neural activity is in general modulated, but not driven, by the sensory input data stream [1,2]. Traditionally one has regarded this eigendynamics as resulting from inter-modular recurrent neural activity [3]. Understanding the basic modules for cognitive computation is, in this view, the primary focus of research and the overall neural dynamics would be determined by the the topology of the intermodular pathways. Here we examine an alternative point of view, asking whether certain aspects of the neural eigendynamics have a central functional role for overall cognitive computation [4,5]. Transiently stable neural activity is regularly observed on the cognitive time-scale of 80–100 ms, with indications that neural competition [6] plays an important role in the selection of the transiently stable neural ensembles [7], also denoted winning coalitions [8]. We report on a theory approach which implements these two principles, transient-state dynamics and neural competition, in terms of an associative neural network with clique encoding [9]. A cognitive system [10] with a non-trivial internal eigendynamics has two seemingly contrasting tasks to fulfill. The internal processes need to be regular and not chaotic on one side, but sensitive to the afferent sensory stimuli on the other side. We show, that these two contrasting demands can be reconciled within our approach based on competitive transient-state dynamics, when allowing the sensory stimuli to modulate the competition for the next winning coalition. By testing the system with the bars problem, we find an emerging cognitive capability. Only based on the two basic architectural principles, neural competition and transient-state dynamics, with no explicit algorithmic encoding, the system performs on its own a non-linear independent component analysis of input data stream. The system has rudimentary biological features. All learning is local Hebbian-style, unsupervised and online. It exhibits an ever-ongoing eigendynamics and at no time is the state or the value of synaptic strengths reset or the system restarted; there is no separation between training and performance. We believe that this kind of approach – cognitive computation with autonomously active neural networks – to be an emerging field, relevant both for system neuroscience and synthetic cognitive systems.
Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities
(2021)
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.
Recurrent cortical networks provide reservoirs of states that are thought to play a crucial role for sequential information processing in the brain. However, classical reservoir computing requires manual adjustments of global network parameters, particularly of the spectral radius of the recurrent synaptic weight matrix. It is hence not clear if the spectral radius is accessible to biological neural networks. Using random matrix theory, we show that the spectral radius is related to local properties of the neuronal dynamics whenever the overall dynamical state is only weakly correlated. This result allows us to introduce two local homeostatic synaptic scaling mechanisms, termed flow control and variance control, that implicitly drive the spectral radius toward the desired value. For both mechanisms the spectral radius is autonomously adapted while the network receives and processes inputs under working conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the two adaptation mechanisms under different external input protocols. Moreover, we evaluated the network performance after adaptation by training the network to perform a time-delayed XOR operation on binary sequences. As our main result, we found that flow control reliably regulates the spectral radius for different types of input statistics. Precise tuning is however negatively affected when interneural correlations are substantial. Furthermore, we found a consistent task performance over a wide range of input strengths/variances. Variance control did however not yield the desired spectral radii with the same precision, being less consistent across different input strengths. Given the effectiveness and remarkably simple mathematical form of flow control, we conclude that self-consistent local control of the spectral radius via an implicit adaptation scheme is an interesting and biological plausible alternative to conventional methods using set point homeostatic feedback controls of neural firing.
An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes : is the US era coming to an end?
(2018)
We point out that the Nobel prize production of the USA, the UK, Germany and France has been in numbers that are large enough to allow for a reliable analysis of the long-term historical developments. Nobel prizes are often split, such that up to three awardees receive a corresponding fractional prize. The historical trends for the fractional number of Nobelists per population are surprisingly robust, indicating in particular that the maximum Nobel productivity peaked in the 1970s for the USA and around 1900 for both France and Germany. The yearly success rates of these three countries are to date of the order of 0.2–0.3 physics, chemistry and medicine laureates per 100 million inhabitants, with the US value being a factor of 2.4 down from the maximum attained in the 1970s. The UK in contrast managed to retain during most of the last century a rate of 0.9–1.0 science Nobel prizes per year and per 100 million inhabitants. For the USA, one finds that the entire history of science Noble prizes is described on a per capita basis to an astonishing accuracy by a single large productivity boost decaying at a continuously accelerating rate since its peak in 1972.
Coupling local, slowly adapting variables to an attractor network allows to destabilize all attractors, turning them into attractor ruins. The resulting attractor relict network may show ongoing autonomous latching dynamics. We propose to use two generating functionals for the construction of attractor relict networks, a Hopfield energy functional generating a neural attractor network and a functional based on information-theoretical principles, encoding the information content of the neural firing statistics, which induces latching transition from one transiently stable attractor ruin to the next. We investigate the influence of stress, in terms of conflicting optimization targets, on the resulting dynamics. Objective function stress is absent when the target level for the mean of neural activities is identical for the two generating functionals and the resulting latching dynamics is then found to be regular. Objective function stress is present when the respective target activity levels differ, inducing intermittent bursting latching dynamics.
For a chaotic system pairs of initially close-by trajectories become eventually fully uncorrelated on the attracting set. This process of decorrelation can split into an initial exponential decrease and a subsequent diffusive process on the chaotic attractor causing the final loss of predictability. Both processes can be either of the same or of very different time scales. In the latter case the two trajectories linger within a finite but small distance (with respect to the overall extent of the attractor) for exceedingly long times and remain partially predictable. Standard tests for chaos widely use inter-orbital correlations as an indicator. However, testing partially predictable chaos yields mostly ambiguous results, as this type of chaos is characterized by attractors of fractally broadened braids. For a resolution we introduce a novel 0-1 indicator for chaos based on the cross-distance scaling of pairs of initially close trajectories. This test robustly discriminates chaos, including partially predictable chaos, from laminar flow. Additionally using the finite time cross-correlation of pairs of initially close trajectories, we are able to identify laminar flow as well as strong and partially predictable chaos in a 0-1 manner solely from the properties of pairs of trajectories.
Self-organized robots may develop attracting states within the sensorimotor loop, that is within the phase space of neural activity, body and environmental variables. Fixpoints, limit cycles and chaotic attractors correspond in this setting to a non-moving robot, to directed, and to irregular locomotion respectively. Short higher-order control commands may hence be used to kick the system from one self-organized attractor robustly into the basin of attraction of a different attractor, a concept termed here as kick control. The individual sensorimotor states serve in this context as highly compliant motor primitives. We study different implementations of kick control for the case of simulated and real-world wheeled robots, for which the dynamics of the distinct wheels is generated independently by local feedback loops. The feedback loops are mediated by rate-encoding neurons disposing exclusively of propriosensoric inputs in terms of projections of the actual rotational angle of the wheel. The changes of the neural activity are then transmitted into a rotational motion by a simulated transmission rod akin to the transmission rods used for steam locomotives. We find that the self-organized attractor landscape may be morphed both by higher-level control signals, in the spirit of kick control, and by interacting with the environment. Bumping against a wall destroys the limit cycle corresponding to forward motion, with the consequence that the dynamical variables are then attracted in phase space by the limit cycle corresponding to backward moving. The robot, which does not dispose of any distance or contact sensors, hence reverses direction autonomously.
Which are the factors underlying human information production on a global level? In order to gain an insight into this question we study a corpus of 252–633 mil. publicly available data files on the Internet corresponding to an overall storage volume of 284–675 Terabytes. Analyzing the file size distribution for several distinct data types we find indications that the neuropsychological capacity of the human brain to process and record information may constitute the dominant limiting factor for the overall growth of globally stored information, with real-world economic constraints having only a negligible influence. This supposition draws support from the observation that the files size distributions follow a power law for data without a time component, like images, and a log-normal distribution for multimedia files, for which time is a defining qualia.
Author summary: The generation of new information is limited by two key factors, by the incurring economic costs and by the capacity of the human brain to process and store data and information; the controlling agent needs to retain an overall understanding even when data is generated by semiautomatic processes. These processes are reflected in the statistical properties of the data files publicly available on the Internet. Collecting a corpus of 252–633 mil. files we find that the statistics of the file size distribution are consistent with the supposition that data production on a global level is shaped and limited by the neuropsychological information processing capacity of the brain, with economic and hardware constraints having a negligible influence.
Spontaneous brain activity is characterized in part by a balanced asynchronous chaotic state. Cortical recordings show that excitatory (E) and inhibitory (I) drivings in the E-I balanced state are substantially larger than the overall input. We show that such a state arises naturally in fully adapting networks which are deterministic, autonomously active and not subject to stochastic external or internal drivings. Temporary imbalances between excitatory and inhibitory inputs lead to large but short-lived activity bursts that stabilize irregular dynamics. We simulate autonomous networks of rate-encoding neurons for which all synaptic weights are plastic and subject to a Hebbian plasticity rule, the flux rule, that can be derived from the stationarity principle of statistical learning. Moreover, the average firing rate is regulated individually via a standard homeostatic adaption of the bias of each neuron’s input-output non-linear function. Additionally, networks with and without short-term plasticity are considered. E-I balance may arise only when the mean excitatory and inhibitory weights are themselves balanced, modulo the overall activity level. We show that synaptic weight balance, which has been considered hitherto as given, naturally arises in autonomous neural networks when the here considered self-limiting Hebbian synaptic plasticity rule is continuously active.
We present an effective model for timing-dependent synaptic plasticity (STDP) in terms of two interacting traces, corresponding to the fraction of activated NMDA receptors and the concentration in the dendritic spine of the postsynaptic neuron. This model intends to bridge the worlds of existing simplistic phenomenological rules and highly detailed models, thus constituting a practical tool for the study of the interplay of neural activity and synaptic plasticity in extended spiking neural networks. For isolated pairs of pre- and postsynaptic spikes, the standard pairwise STDP rule is reproduced, with appropriate parameters determining the respective weights and timescales for the causal and the anticausal contributions. The model contains otherwise only three free parameters, which can be adjusted to reproduce triplet nonlinearities in hippocampal culture and cortical slices. We also investigate the transition from time-dependent to rate-dependent plasticity occurring for both correlated and uncorrelated spike patterns.
The Fisher information constitutes a natural measure for the sensitivity of a probability distribution with respect to a set of parameters. An implementation of the stationarity principle for synaptic learning in terms of the Fisher information results in a Hebbian self-limiting learning rule for synaptic plasticity. In the present work, we study the dependence of the solutions to this rule in terms of the moments of the input probability distribution and find a preference for non-Gaussian directions, making it a suitable candidate for independent component analysis (ICA). We confirm in a numerical experiment that a neuron trained under these rules is able to find the independent components in the non-linear bars problem. The specific form of the plasticity rule depends on the transfer function used, becoming a simple cubic polynomial of the membrane potential for the case of the rescaled error function. The cubic learning rule is also an excellent approximation for other transfer functions, as the standard sigmoidal, and can be used to show analytically that the proposed plasticity rules are selective for directions in the space of presynaptic neural activities characterized by a negative excess kurtosis.
Generating functionals may guide the evolution of a dynamical system and constitute a possible route for handling the complexity of neural networks as relevant for computational intelligence.We propose and explore a new objective function, which allows to obtain plasticity rules for the afferent synaptic weights. The adaption rules are Hebbian, self-limiting, and result from the minimization of the Fisher information with respect to the synaptic flux. We perform a series of simulations examining the behavior of the new learning rules in various circumstances.The vector of synaptic weights aligns with the principal direction of input activities, whenever one is present. A linear discrimination is performed when there are two or more principal directions; directions having bimodal firing-rate distributions, being characterized by a negative excess kurtosis, are preferred. We find robust performance and full homeostatic adaption of the synaptic weights results as a by-product of the synaptic flux minimization. This self-limiting behavior allows for stable online learning for arbitrary durations.The neuron acquires new information when the statistics of input activities is changed at a certain point of the simulation, showing however, a distinct resilience to unlearn previously acquired knowledge. Learning is fast when starting with randomly drawn synaptic weights and substantially slower when the synaptic weights are already fully adapted.
Envy, the inclination to compare rewards, can be expected to unfold when inequalities in terms of pay-off differences are generated in competitive societies. It is shown that increasing levels of envy lead inevitably to a self-induced separation into a lower and an upper class. Class stratification is Nash stable and strict, with members of the same class receiving identical rewards. Upper-class agents play exclusively pure strategies, all lower-class agents the same mixed strategy. The fraction of upper-class agents decreases progressively with larger levels of envy, until a single upper-class agent is left. Numerical simulations and a complete analytic treatment of a basic reference model, the shopping trouble model, are presented. The properties of the class-stratified society are universal and only indirectly controllable through the underlying utility function, which implies that class-stratified societies are intrinsically resistant to political control. Implications for human societies are discussed. It is pointed out that the repercussions of envy are amplified when societies become increasingly competitive.
We study simulated animats in terms of wheeled robots with the most simple neural controller possible – a single neuron per actuator. The system is fully self-organized in the sense that the controlling neuron receives uniquely the actual angle of the wheel as an input. Non-trivial locomotion results in structured environments, with the robot determining autonomously the direction of movement (time-reversal symmetry is spontaneously broken). Our controller, which mimics the mechanism used to transmit power in steam locomotives, abstracts from the body plan of the animat, working without problems also in the presence of noise and for chains of individual two-wheeled cars. Being fully compliant our controller may be also used, in the spirit of morphological computation, as a basic unit for higher-level evolutionary algorithms.
Human societies are characterized by three constituent features, besides others. (A) Options, as for jobs and societal positions, differ with respect to their associated monetary and non-monetary payoffs. (B) Competition leads to reduced payoffs when individuals compete for the same option as others. (C) People care about how they are doing relatively to others. The latter trait –the propensity to compare one’s own success with that of others– expresses itself as envy. It is shown that the combination of (A)–(C) leads to spontaneous class stratification. Societies of agents split endogenously into two social classes, an upper and a lower class, when envy becomes relevant. A comprehensive analysis of the Nash equilibria characterizing a basic reference game is presented. Class separation is due to the condensation of the strategies of lower-class agents, which play an identical mixed strategy. Upper-class agents do not condense, following individualist pure strategies. The model and results are size-consistent, holding for arbitrary large numbers of agents and options. Analytic results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. An analogy to interacting confined classical particles is discussed.
Five decades of US, UK, German and Dutch music charts show that cultural processes are accelerating
(2019)
Analysing the timeline of US, UK, German and Dutch music charts, we find that the evolution of album lifetimes and of the size of weekly rank changes provide evidence for an acceleration of cultural processes. For most of the past five decades, number one albums needed more than a month to climb to the top, nowadays an album is in contrast top ranked either from the start, or not at all. Over the last three decades, the number of top-listed albums increased as a consequence from roughly a dozen per year, to about 40. The distribution of album lifetimes evolved during the last decades from a log-normal distribution to a power law, a profound change. Presenting an information–theoretical approach to human activities, we suggest that the fading relevance of personal time horizons may be causing this phenomenon. Furthermore, we find that sales and airplay- based charts differ statistically and that the inclusion of streaming affects chart diversity adversely. We point out in addition that opinion dynamics may accelerate not only in cultural domains, as found here, but also in other settings, in particular in politics, where it could have far reaching consequences.