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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
The capability of directing gaze to relevant parts in the environment is crucial for our survival. Computational models have proposed quantitative accounts of human gaze selection in a range of visual search tasks. Initially, models suggested that gaze is directed to the locations in a visual scene at which some criterion such as the probability of target location, the reduction of uncertainty or the maximization of reward appear to be maximal. But subsequent studies established, that in some tasks humans instead direct their gaze to locations, such that after the single next look the criterion is expected to become maximal. However, in tasks going beyond a single action, the entire action sequence may determine future rewards thereby necessitating planning beyond a single next gaze shift. While previous empirical studies have suggested that human gaze sequences are planned, quantitative evidence for whether the human visual system is capable of finding optimal eye movement sequences according to probabilistic planning is missing. Here we employ a series of computational models to investigate whether humans are capable of looking ahead more than the next single eye movement. We found clear evidence that subjects’ behavior was better explained by the model of a planning observer compared to a myopic, greedy observer, which selects only a single saccade at a time. In particular, the location of our subjects’ first fixation differed depending on the stimulus and the time available for the search, which was well predicted quantitatively by a probabilistic planning model. Overall, our results are the first evidence that the human visual system’s gaze selection agrees with optimal planning under uncertainty.
Cerebral lesions may cause degeneration and neuroplastic reorganization in both the ipsi- and the contralesional hemisphere, presumably creating an imbalance of primarily inhibitory interhemispheric influences produced via transcallosal pathways. The two hemispheres are thought to mutually hamper neuroplastic reorganization of the other hemisphere. The results of preceding degeneration and neuroplastic reorganization of white matter may be reflected by Diffusion Tensor Imaging-derived diffusivity parameters such as fractional anisotropy (FA). In this study, we applied Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) to contrast the white matter status of the contralesional hemisphere of young lesioned brains with and without contralateral influences by comparing patients after hemispherotomy to those who had not undergone neurosurgery. DTI was applied to 43 healthy controls (26 females, mean age ± SD: 25.07 ± 11.33 years) and two groups of in total 51 epilepsy patients with comparable juvenile brain lesions (32 females, mean age ± SD: 25.69 ± 12.77 years) either after hemispherotomy (30 of 51 patients) or without neurosurgery (21 of 51 patients), respectively. FA values were compared between these groups using the unbiased tract-based spatial statistics approach. A voxel-wise ANCOVA controlling for age at scan yielded significant group differences in FA. A post hoc t-test between hemispherotomy patients and healthy controls revealed widespread supra-threshold voxels in the contralesional hemisphere of hemispherotomy patients indicating comparatively higher FA values (p < 0.05, FWE-corrected). The non-surgery group, in contrast, showed extensive supra-threshold voxels indicating lower FA values in the contralesional hemisphere as compared to healthy controls (p < 0.05, FWE-corrected). Whereas lower FA values are suggestive of pronounced contralesional degeneration in the non-surgery group, higher FA values in the hemispherotomy group may be interpreted as a result of preceding plastic remodeling. We conclude that, whether juvenile brain lesions are associated with contralesional degeneration or reorganization partly depends on the ipsilesional hemisphere. Contralesional reorganization as observed in hemispherotomy patients was most likely enabled by the complete neurosurgical deafferentation of the ipsilesional hemisphere and, thereby, the disinhibition of the neuroplastic potential of the contralesional hemisphere. The main argument of this study is that hemispherotomy may be seen as a major plastic stimulus and as a prerequisite for contralesional neuroplastic remodeling in patients with juvenile brain lesions.