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The population of industrialized countries such as the United States or of countries from the European Union spends approximately more than one hour each day in vehicles. In this respect, numerous studies have so far addressed outdoor air pollution that arises from traffic. By contrast, only little is known about indoor air quality in vehicles and influences by non-vehicle sources. Therefore the present article aims to summarize recent studies that address i.e. particulate matter exposure. It can be stated that although there is a large amount of data present for outdoor air pollution, research in the area of indoor air quality in vehicles is still limited. Especially, knowledge on non-vehicular sources is missing. In this respect, an understanding of the effects and interactions of i.e. tobacco smoke under realistic automobile conditions should be achieved in future.
Objective: Inhaled particulate matter (PM) in secondhand smoke (SHS) is deleterious for smokers and non-smokers. Different additives in cigarettes might effect the amount of PM. This study aimed to assess the influence of additives on the PM emissions from different cigarette types in SHS.
Design: An experimental study of PM measuring in SHS of cigarettes without exposition of any person.
Method: The concentrations of PM (PM10, PM2.5 and PM1) in SHS of four different types of cigarettes of the brand Lucky Strike, two types with additives (Original Red, Original Blue) and two types without additives (Straight Red, Straight Blue), in comparison to the reference cigarette 3R4F were analysed. An automatic environmental tobacco smoke emitter generated SHS in an enclosed space with a volume of 2.88 m3. PM was measured with a laser aerosol spectrometer (Grimm model 1.109). Afterwards, the measuring values of the four Lucky Strike brands and the reference cigarette were statistically evaluated and visualised.
Results: Lucky Strike Straight Blue, a cigarette type without additives and lower tar amount, showed 10% to 25% lower PM mean values compared with the other tested Lucky Strike products, but 21% (PM1) respectively 27% (PM2.5,PM10) higher mean values than the reference cigarette. The PM mean of all measured smoke-free baseline values (clean air) was 1.6 µg/m³. It increased up to about 1800 µg/m³ for the reference cigarette and up to about 3070 µg/m³ for the Lucky Strike Original Blue.
Conclusions: The findings of this study show the massive increase of PM amount by smoking cigarettes in enclosed spaces and suggest that additives in tobacco products increase the PM amount in SHS. For validation, further comparative studies are necessary focusing on the comparison of the PM concentration of cigarettes with and without additives.
Implications: Due to the exposure to SHS, 890 000 people die each year worldwide. PM in SHS endangers the health of both non-smokers and smokers. This study considers the effect of additives like aromatics and humectant agents in cigarettes on PM in SHS. Do additives in tobacco products increase the amount of PM?
The inhalation of particulate matter (PM) in second-hand smoke (SHS) is hazardous to health of smokers and non-smokers. Tobacco strength (amount of tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide) and different additives might have an effect on the amount of PM. This study aimed to investigate the influence of tobacco strength or additives on PM. Four cigarette types of the brand Marlboro with different strengths and with or without additives were analyzed in comparison to the 3R4F reference cigarette. SHS was generated by an automatic environmental tobacco smoke emitter (AETSE) in an enclosed space with a volume of 2.88 m³. PM concentrations (PM10, PM2.5, PM1) were measured with a laser aerosol spectrometer followed by statistical analysis. The two strongest Marlboro brands (Red and Red without additives) showed the highest PM concentrations of all tested cigarettes. The measured mean concentrations Cmean of PM10 increased up to 1458 µg/m³ for the Marlboro Red without additives (PM2.5: 1452 µg/m³, PM1: 1263 µg/m³). The similarly strong Marlboro Red showed very similar PM values. The second strongest type Marlboro Gold showed 36% (PM10, PM2.5) and 32% (PM1) lower values, respectively. The “lightest” type Marlboro Silver Blue showed 54% (PM10, PM2.5) or 50% (PM1) lower PM values. The results indicate that the lower the tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide amounts, as well as the longer the cigarette filter, the lower are the PM levels. An influence of additives could not be determined.
Background: The currently prevailing global threat of COVID-19 caused the publication numbers on coronaviruses to explode. The awareness of the scientific and public community is enormous. But what about the sense of all these undertakings and what can be learned about the future for a better understanding? These questions were answered with established bibliometric analyses of the time until the avalanche of publications unfolded.
Methods: Chronological, geographical aspects of publication output on coronavirus were also evaluated under the influence of epidemiological and socio-economic parameters.
Results: The trend in publication and citation numbers shows the strong influence of the past pandemics SARS and MERS with an untypical decline afterward. Research is becoming increasingly multidisciplinary over time. The USA and China, as the countries with the highest number of publications, are being displaced by other countries in the consideration of socio-economic and epidemiological aspects, which shows the effect of regional interest in corona research. A significant correlation was found between the number of SARS cases per country and related publications, while no correlation was found for MERS cases and articles.
Conclusions: The results underline the need for sustainable and forward-looking approaches that should not end with the containment of COVID-19.
Although the big tobacco companies offer the same cigarette brands across countries, little is known about the potential regional differences of the particulate matter (PM) emissions of apparently equal brands. PM emissions of three cigarette brands (Marlboro Gold, Winston Red resp. Classic, Parliament Platinum resp. Night Blue) from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Germany were analysed. Second-hand smoke was produced in a 2.88 m3 measuring cabin by an automatic environmental tobacco smoke emitter. PM size fractions PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 were detected in real-time using laser aerosol spectrometry. Depending on the PM fraction Marlboro cigarettes from UAE showed 33%–35% higher PM amounts. Moreover, Winston cigarettes from UAE showed distinctly higher PM values (28–31%) than the German counterparts. The “lighter” Parliament from UAE emitted 3%–9% more PM than the German one. The measured mean PM10 values laid between 778 and 1163 µg/m3 (mean PM2.5: 777–1161 µg/m3; mean PM1: 724–1074 µg/m3). That means smoking in enclosed rooms causes massive PM burden. The PM emission of equal or similar tobacco products from different countries can differ distinctly. Hence, the declaration of PM emission values, besides nicotine, tar, and carbon monoxide amounts, should be obligatory worldwide. Furthermore, complete information about the ingredients and production processes of tobacco products should be provided to health officials and the public. This can help to minimise or ban substances or product designs that make smoking even more harmful, and to enhance the awareness of the risks of smoking.
Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is linked to cervical cancer, which represents the world's fourth most common cancer in women. So far, no detailed map of the worldwide HPV research architecture has been constructed. Hence, this study focuses on the chronological development and geographical distribution of the global HPV-specific publications and evaluates citation-based parameters as well as socioeconomic features of the publishing countries.
In total, 29,330 HPV-related publications were identified. The US was the leading country with 12,270 publications. Only high-income-countries were found in the ranking of the fifteen most active countries with Germany, France, and Japan among the top five. Analysis of HPV research activity in relation to the economic strength demonstrated a lead position of Finland and Sweden with an average of 2248.78 and 1924.67 HPV-related publications per GDP in 1000 bn US-$, respectively. The most active upper-middle-income country was Mexico (416.78 HPV-related publications per GDP in 1000 bn US-$). India as lower-middle-income country reached a value of 279.78 HPV-related publications per GDP in 1000 bn US-$. Collaboration analysis pointed to the US as the center of the 4517 international HPV collaborations.
The worldwide HPV-research landscape is dominated by North American and Western European countries. By contrast, a high prevalence of HPV-related cervical cancer is documented for low-income countries. Hence, HPV-related public health interventions and prevention research specifically tailored to these countries needs to be fostered by monetary support and international collaborations.
Abstract In the middle of the twentieth century, the from North America sooty bark disease (SBD) of maples was first discovered in England and has spread in the last decades in Central Europe, in particular. The trigger of SBD is the mould fungus Cryptostroma (C.) corticale. The most common infested maple is the sycamore, Acer pseudoplatanus, a common tree in woods and parks. The disease is characterised by peeling of the outer layer of the bark and brownish-black spores under the peeled off bark. These spores can cause maple bark disease (MBD) in humans, a hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) with similar symptoms like COPD, allergic asthma, influenza or flu-like infections and interstitial pneumonia. Persons who have intensive respectively occupational contact with infested trees or wood, e.g., woodman, foresters, sawyers or paper mill workers, are at risk in particular. Since C. corticale favours hot summers and host trees weakened by drought, SBD will increasingly spread in the future due to ongoing climate change. Consequently, the risk of developing MBD will increase, too. As with all HPs, e.g., farmer’s lung and pigeon breeder’s disease, the diagnosis of MBD is intricate because it has no clear distinguishing characteristics compared to other interstitial lung diseases. Therefore, the establishment of consistent diagnosis guidelines is required. For correct diagnosis and successful therapy, multidisciplinary expertise including pulmonologists, radiologists, pathologists and occupational physicians is recommended. If MBD is diagnosed in time, the removal of the triggering fungus or the infested maple wood leads to complete recovery in most cases. Chronic HP can lead to lung fibrosis and a total loss of lung function culminating in death. HP and, thus, MBD, is a disease with a very high occupational amount. To avoid contact with spores of C. corticale, persons working on infested wood or trees have to wear personal protective equipment. To protect the public, areas with infested maples have to be cordoned off, and the trees should be removed. This is also for impeding further spreading of the spores.
Bicycle traumata are very common and especially neurologic complications lead to disability and death in all stages of the life. This review assembles the most recent findings concerning research in the field of bicycle traumata combined with the factor of bicycle helmet use. The area of bicycle trauma research is by nature multidisciplinary and relevant not only for physicians but also for experts with educational, engineering, judicial, rehabilitative or public health functions. Due to this plurality of global publications and special subjects, short time reviews help to detect recent research directions and provide also information from neighbour disciplines for researchers. It can be stated that to date, that although a huge amount of research has been conducted in this area more studies are needed to evaluate and improve special conditions and needs in different regions, ages, nationalities and to create successful prevention programs of severe head and face injuries while cycling. Focus was explicit the bicycle helmet use, wherefore sledding, ski and snowboard studies were excluded and only one study concerning electric bicycles remained due to similar motion structures within this review. The considered studies were all published between January 2010 and August 2011 and were identified via the online databases Medline PubMed and ISI Web of Science.
Background: Novel influenza in 2009 caused by H1N1, as well as the seasonal influenza, still are a challenge for the public health sectors worldwide. An increasing number of publications referring to this infectious disease make it difficult to distinguish relevant research output. The current study used scientometric indices for a detailed investigation on influenza related research activity and the method of density equalizing mapping to make the differences of the overall research worldwide obvious. The aim of the study was to compare scientific effort over the time as well as geographical distribution including the cooperation on national and international level.
Methods: Therefore, publication data was retrieved from Web of Science (WoS) of Thomson Scientific. Subsequently the data was analysed in order to show geographical distributions and the development of the research output over the time.
The query retrieved 51,418 publications that are listed in WoS for the time interval from 1900 to 2009. There is a continuous increase in research output and general citation activity especially since 1990.
Results: The identified all in all 51,418 publications were published by researchers from 151 different countries. Scientists from the USA participate in more than 37 percent of all publications, followed by researchers from the UK and Germany with more than five percent. In addition, the USA is in the focus of international cooperation.
In terms of number of publications on influenza, the Journal of Virology ranks first, followed by Vaccine and Virology. The highest impact factor (IF 2009) in this selection can be established for The Lancet (30.75). Robert Webster seems to be the most prolific author contributing the most publications in the field of influenza.
Conclusions: This study reveals an increasing and wide research interest in influenza. Nevertheless, citation based-declaration of scientific quality should be considered critically due to distortion by self-citation and co-authorship.
Background: Drowning is a constant global problem which claims proximately half a million victims worldwide each year, whereas the number of near-drowning victims is considerably higher. Public health strategies to reduce the burden of death are still limited. While research activities in the subject drowning grow constantly, yet there is no scientometric evaluation of the existing literature at the present time.
Methods: The current study uses classical bibliometric tools and visualizing techniques such as density equalizing mapping to analyse and evaluate the scientific research in the field of drowning. The interpretation of the achieved results is also implemented in the context of the data collection of the WHO.
Results: All studies related to drowning and listed in the ISI-Web of Science database since 1900 were identified using the search term "drowning". Implementing bibliometric methods, a constant increase in quantitative markers such as number of publications per state, publication language or collaborations as well as qualitative markers such as citations were observed for research in the field of drowning. The combination with density equalizing mapping exposed different global patterns for research productivity and the total number of drowning deaths and drowning rates respectively. Chart techniques were used to illustrate bi- and multilateral research cooperation.
Conclusions: The present study provides the first scientometric approach that visualizes research activity on the subject of drowning. It can be assumed that the scientific approach to this topic will achieve even greater dimensions because of its continuing actuality.
Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a major contributor to indoor air pollution. Since decades it is well documented that ETS can be harmful to human health and cause premature death and disease. In comparison to the huge research on toxicological substances of ETS, less attention was paid on the concentration of indoor ETS-dependent particulate matter (PM). Especially, investigation that focuses on different tobacco products and their concentration of deeply into the airways depositing PM-fractions (PM10, PM2.5 and PM1) must be stated. The tobacco smoke particles and indoor air quality study (ToPIQS) will approach this issue by device supported generation of indoor ETS and simultaneously measurements of PM concentration by laser aerosol spectrometry. Primarily, the ToPIQ study will conduct a field research with focus on PM concentration of different tobacco products and within various microenvironments. It is planned to extend the analysis to basic research on influencing factors of ETS-dependent PM concentration.
Background: After nearly a quarter-century of declining poverty, the numbers are rising again significantly. This is due not only to effects of climate change but also to the COVID-19 pandemics and armed conflict. Combined with the enormous health impacts, that will cause misery and health care costs worldwide. Therefore, this study provides background information on the global research landscape on poverty and health to help researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers determine the best way to address this threat.
Results: The USA is the key player, dealing mainly with domestic issues. European countries are also involved but tend to be more internationally oriented. Developing countries are underrepresented, with Nigeria standing out. A positive correlation was found between publication numbers and economic strength, while the relationship between article numbers and multidimensional poverty was negatively correlated.
Conclusions: These findings highlight the need for advanced networking and the benefits of cross-disciplinary research to mitigate the coming impacts.
Gender disparities in pediatric research: a descriptive bibliometric study on scientific authorships
(2022)
Background: The proportion of women in medicine, especially in pediatrics, is noticeably increasing. Yet, leadership positions are predominantly occupied by men.
Methods: Academic authorships of 156,642 pediatric original research articles were analyzed with regard to gender disparities. The evaluation included the proportion of female authorships (FAP), distributions over first-, co- and last-authorships, gender-related citation rates, a productivity analysis and investigations on journals, countries and pediatric sub-disciplines.
Results: In all, 46.6% of all authorships in pediatric research were held by female authors. Women held relatively more first-authorships (FAP = 52%) and had higher odds for first- (OR = 1.3) and co- (OR = 1.11) authorships, compared to men. The Prestige Index of −0.13 indicated an underrepresentation of female authors at prestigious first- and last-authorships. Citation rates were not affected by the gender of the key authors. At the country-level pronounced gender-related differences were detected. The time trend showed increasing female prospects forecasting a female-dominated Prestige Index of 0.05 in 2023.
Conclusion: The integration of women in pediatric research has advanced. Opportunities for female authors differ at the country-level, but overall women are lacking in leadership positions. Improving career opportunities for women in pediatric research can be expected in the coming years.
Impact: There is a measurable progress in the integration of female scientists.
Gender-neutrality is partially achieved in pediatric research with yet a female underrepresentation in leading positions.
Our descriptive study presents gender-related dynamics in pediatric research that forecast improving career opportunities for female scientists.
The exposure to tobacco smoke during pregnancy is considered to be amongst the most harmful avoidable risk factors. In this scientometric and gender study scientific data on smoking and pregnancy was analyzed using a variety of objective scientometric methods like the number of scientific contributions, the number of citations and the modified h-index in combination with gender-specific investigations. Covering a time period from 1900 to 2012, publishing activities of 27,955 authors, institutions and countries, reception within the international scientific community and its reactions were analyzed and interpreted. Out of 10,043 publications the highest number of scientific works were published in the USA (35.5%), followed by the UK (9.9%) and Canada (5.3%). These nations also achieve the highest modified h-indices of 128, 79 and 62 and the highest citation rates of 41.4%, 8.6% and 5.3%, respectively. Out of 12,596 scientists 6,935 are female (55.1%), however they account for no more than 49.7% of publications (12,470) and 42.8% of citations (172,733). The highest percentage of female experts about smoking and pregnancy is found in Australasia (60.7%), while the lowest is found in Asia (41.9%). The findings of the study indicate an increase in gender equality as well as in quantity and quality of international scientific research about smoking and pregnancy in the future.
Highlights
• Currently, China has the most publications, ahead of the USA and European countries.
• Research focuses are strictly separated into ecological and material science topics.
• Russia and Ukraine are among the frontrunners with a clear focus on materials science.
• The focus in PFAS research is shifting toward ecological issues.
• A national imbalance can be observed that leaves the low economies behind.
Abstract
The European Commission's current efforts to launch the largest proposal to restrict per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in history reflect the dire global plight of PFAS accumulation in the environment and their health impacts. While there are existing studies on PFAS research, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis that both covers the entire research period and provides deep insights into global research patterns, incentives, and barriers based on various parameters. We have been able to demonstrate the increasing interest in PFAS research, although citation numbers are declining prematurely. Policy regulations based on proving and establishing the toxicity of PFASs have stimulated research in developed countries and vice versa, with increasing emphasis on ecological aspects. China, in particular, is investing increasingly in PFAS research, but without defining or implementing regulations - with devastating effects. The separation of industrial and environmental research interests is clear, with little involvement of developing countries, even though their exposure to PFAS is devastating. It, therefore, requires increased globally networked and multidisciplinary approaches to address PFAS contamination challenges.
Radon ist ein ubiquitär im Erdmantel sowie in der Luft und im Wasser vorkommendes radioaktives Edelgas. Obwohl die mit der Exposition assoziierten Erkrankungen seit dem Mittelalter bekannt waren, ist eine kausale Zuordnung von Agens und Krankheit erst in der Mitte des letzten Jahrhunderts gelungen. Durch die physikalischen Eigenschaften des Gases ist die Prävention darauf ausgerichtet, die Exposition zu minimieren. Eine koordinierte Bemühung der EU, durch einheitliche Regeln die Bevölkerung zu schützen, stellt die Richtlinie 2013/59/EURATOM vom 5. Dezember 2013 dar. Umgesetzt in nationales Recht, sah die deutsche Strahlenschutzgesetzgebung vor, dass am 01.01.2021 die verantwortlichen Bundesländer basierend auf einer Expositionskarte die Gebiete festlegen, in denen der Grenzwert der Aktivitätskonzentration von Radon in der Luft im Jahresmittel 300 Bq/m3 überschreitet. In dieser Arbeit sollen die Fortschritte auf dem Weg zu einem umfassenderen Schutz vor den Gefahren durch Radon für die Bevölkerung in Deutschland dargestellt werden.
Obstructive Sleep Apnea is emerging as a global health epidemic, particularly due to the obesity pandemic. However, comprehensive prevalence data are still lacking and global OSA research has not yet been structurally evaluated. Using the latest comprehensive age/gender-specific BMI and obesity data, a global landscape estimating the risk/burden of OSA was created. Results were presented in relation to an in-depth analysis of OSA research and countries’ socioeconomic/scientific background. While the USA, Canada, and Japan are the highest publishing countries on OSA, Iceland, Greece, and Israel appeared at the forefront when relating the scientific output to socioeconomic parameters. Conversely, China, India, and Russia showed relatively low performances in these relations. Analysis of the estimated population at risk (EPR) of OSA showed the USA, China, India, and Brazil as the leading countries. Although the EPR and OSA research correlated strongly, major regional discrepancies between the estimated demand and actual research performances were identified, mainly in, but not limited to, developing nations. Our study highlights regional challenges/imbalances in the global activity on OSA and allows targeted measures to mitigate the burden of undiagnosed/untreated OSA. Furthermore, the inclusion of disadvantaged countries in international collaborations could stimulate local research efforts and provide valuable insights into the regional epidemiology of OSA.
Background: Fabry disease (FD), the second most prevalent lysosomal storage disorder, is classified as a rare disease. It often leads to significant quality of life impairments and premature death. Many cases remain undiagnosed due to the rarity and heterogeneity. Further, costs related to treatment often constitute a substantial financial burden for patients and health systems. While its epidemiology is still unclear, newborn screenings suggest that its actual prevalence rate is significantly higher than previously suspected. Methods: Based on well-established methodologies, this study gives an overview about the background of the development of FD-related research and provides a critical view of future needs. Results: On the grounds of benchmarking findings, an increasing research activity on FD can be observed. Most publishing countries are the USA, some European countries, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. In general, high-income countries publish comparably more on FD than low- or middle-income economies. The countries' financial and infrastructural background are unveiled as crucial factors for the FD research activity. Conclusions: Overall, there is a need to foster FD research infrastructure in developing and emerging countries with focus on cost-intensive genetic research that is independent from economic interests of big pharmaceutical companies.
Needlestick injuries: a density-equalizing mapping and socioeconomic analysis of the global research
(2020)
Background: Needlestick injuries have caused a deleterious effect on the physical and mental health of millions of health-care workers over the past decades, being responsible for occupational infections with viruses such as HIV or hepatis C. Despite this heavy burden of disease, no concise studies have been published on the global research landscape so far.
Methods: We used the New Quality and Quantity Indices in Science platform to analyze global NSI research (n = 2987 articles) over the past 115 years using the Web of Science and parameters such as global versus country-specific research activities, semi-qualitative issues, and socioeconomic figures.
Results: Density-equalizing mapping showed that although a total of n = 106 countries participated in NSI research, large parts of Africa and South America were almost invisible regarding global participation in NSI research. Average citation rate (cr) analysis indicated a high rate for Switzerland (cr = 25.1), Italy (cr = 23.5), and Japan (cr = 19.2). Socioeconomic analysis revealed that the UK had the highest quotient QGDP of 0.13 NSI-specific publications per bill. US-$ gross domestic product (GDP), followed by South Africa (QGDP = 0.12). Temporal analysis of HIV versus hepatitis research indicated that NSI-HIV research culminated in the early 1990s, whereas NSI-hepatitis research increased over the observed period from the 1980s until the last decade.
Conclusion: Albeit NSI research activity is generally increasing, the growth is asymmetrical from a global viewpoint. International strategies should be followed that put a focus on NSI in non-industrialized areas of the world.
The question of whether nuclear energy—as a source with relatively low carbon dioxide emissions—can be classified as a sustainable energy source has come into focus in connection with climate change. There is a controversy over securing independence from fossil fuels and gas supplies from other countries through a revival of nuclear energy. On the other hand, some viewpoints are critical: the handling of nuclear waste and the still unclear risks to human health and the environment, especially in light of recent perils from Russian military attacks on Ukrainian nuclear plants. To evaluate the worldwide publications on nuclear energy under health and environmental aspects, socio-economic parameters were included to provide an informed background for all stakeholders, from scientists to decision-makers. The correlation between the number of nuclear power plants and the publication output of the countries is proven to be highly significant. Thus, the operating countries publish the most. It has been shown that the development and economic use of nuclear energy are major stimuli for scientific endeavors. Reactor accidents have also spurred research. Mathematical risk modeling has been the area with the highest citation rate to date, but environmental and health aspects have become more important, especially after major accidents. The results show the importance of economic interests in research on nuclear energy from health and environmental aspects. Against the background of transnational hazards, global research participation should be encouraged. Moreover, the international debate should not ignore the reality of threats and their possible impacts.
Background: The adequate allocation of inpatient care resources requires assumptions about the need for health care and how this need will be met. However, in current practice, these assumptions are often based on outdated methods (e.g. Hill-Burton Formula). This study evaluated floating catchment area (FCA) methods, which have been applied as measures of spatial accessibility, focusing on their ability to predict the need for health care in the inpatient sector in Germany.
Methods: We tested three FCA methods (enhanced (E2SFCA), modified (M2SFCA) and integrated (iFCA)) for their accuracy in predicting hospital visits regarding six medical diagnoses (atrial flutter/fibrillation, heart failure, femoral fracture, gonarthrosis, stroke, and epilepsy) on national level in Germany. We further used the closest provider approach for benchmark purposes. The predicted visits were compared with the actual visits for all six diagnoses using a correlation analysis and a maximum error from the actual visits of ± 5%, ± 10% and ± 15%.
Results: The analysis of 229 million distances between hospitals and population locations revealed a high and significant correlation of predicted with actual visits for all three FCA methods across all six diagnoses up to ρ = 0.79 (p < 0.001). Overall, all FCA methods showed a substantially higher correlation with actual hospital visits compared to the closest provider approach (up to ρ = 0.51; p < 0.001). Allowing a 5% error of the absolute values, the analysis revealed up to 13.4% correctly predicted hospital visits using the FCA methods (15% error: up to 32.5% correctly predicted hospital). Finally, the potential of the FCA methods could be revealed by using the actual hospital visits as the measure of hospital attractiveness, which returned very strong correlations with the actual hospital visits up to ρ = 0.99 (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: We were able to demonstrate the impact of FCA measures regarding the prediction of hospital visits in non-emergency settings, and their superiority over commonly used methods (i.e. closest provider). However, hospital beds were inadequate as the measure of hospital attractiveness resulting in low accuracy of predicted hospital visits. More reliable measures must be integrated within the proposed methods. Still, this study strengthens the possibilities of FCA methods in health care planning beyond their original application in measuring spatial accessibility.