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Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
In power systems, flow allocation (FA) methods enable to allocate the usage and costs of the transmission grid to each single market participant. Based on predefined assumptions, the power flow is split into isolated generator-specific or producer-specific sub-flows. Two prominent FA methods, Marginal Participation (MP) and Equivalent Bilateral Exchanges (EBEs), build upon the linearized power flow and thus on the Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDFs). Despite their intuitive and computationally efficient concepts, they are restricted to networks with passive transmission elements only. As soon as a significant number of controllable transmission elements, such as high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, operate in the system, they lose their applicability. This work reformulates the two methods in terms of Virtual Injection Patterns (VIPs), which allows one to efficiently introduce a shift parameter q to tune contributions of net sources and net sinks in the network. In this work, major properties and differences in the methods are pointed out, and it is shown how the MP and EBE algorithms can be applied to generic meshed AC-DC electricity grids: by introducing a pseudo-impedance ω¯ , which reflects the operational state of controllable elements and allows one to extend the PTDF matrix under the assumption of knowing the current flow in the system. Basic properties from graph theory are used to solve for the pseudo-impedance in dependence of the position within the network. This directly enables, e.g., HVDC lines to be considered in the MP and EBE algorithms. The extended methods are applied to a low-carbon European network model (PyPSA-EUR) with a spatial resolution of 181 nodes and an 18% transmission expansion compared to today’s total transmission capacity volume. The allocations of MP and EBE show that countries with high wind potentials profit most from the transmission grid expansion. Based on the average usage of transmission system expansion, a method of distributing operational and capital expenditures is proposed. In addition, it is shown how injections from renewable resources strongly drive country-to-country allocations and thus cross-border electricity flows.
Background & Aims: NAFLD is a growing health concern. The aim of the Fatty Liver Assessment in Germany (FLAG) study was to assess disease burden and provide data on the standard of care from secondary care. Methods: The FLAG study is an observational real-world study in patients with NAFLD enrolled at 13 centres across Germany. Severity of disease was assessed by non-invasive surrogate scores and data recorded at baseline and 12 months. Results: In this study, 507 patients (mean age 53 years; 47% women) were enrolled. According to fibrosis-4 index, 64%, 26%, and 10% of the patients had no significant fibrosis, indeterminate stage, and advanced fibrosis, respectively. Patients with advanced fibrosis were older, had higher waist circumferences, and higher aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyltransferase as well as ferritin levels. The prevalence of obesity, arterial hypertension, and type 2 diabetes increased with fibrosis stages. Standard of care included physical exercise >2 times per week in 17% (no significant fibrosis), 19% (indeterminate), and 6% (advanced fibrosis) of patients. Medication with either vitamin E, silymarin, or ursodeoxycholic acid was reported in 5%. Approximately 25% of the patients received nutritional counselling. According to the FibroScan-AST score, 17% of patients presented with progressive non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (n = 107). On follow-up at year 1 (n = 117), weight loss occurred in 47% of patients, of whom 17% lost more than 5% of body weight. In the weight loss group, alanine aminotransferase activities were reduced by 20%. Conclusions: This is the first report on NAFLD from a secondary-care real-world cohort in Germany. Every 10th patient presented with advanced fibrosis at baseline. Management consisted of best supportive care and lifestyle recommendations. The data highlight the urgent need for systematic health agenda in NAFLD patients. Lay summary: FLAG is a real-world cohort study that examined the liver disease burden in secondary and tertiary care. Herein, 10% of patients referred to secondary care for NAFLD exhibited advanced liver disease, whilst 64% had no significant liver scarring. These findings underline the urgent need to define patient referral pathways for suspected liver disease.
A central motivation for the development of x-ray free-electron lasers has been the prospect of time-resolved single-molecule imaging with atomic resolution. Here, we show that x-ray photoelectron diffraction—where a photoelectron emitted after x-ray absorption illuminates the molecular structure from within—can be used to image the increase of the internuclear distance during the x-ray-induced fragmentation of an O2 molecule. By measuring the molecular-frame photoelectron emission patterns for a two-photon sequential K-shell ionization in coincidence with the fragment ions, and by sorting the data as a function of the measured kinetic energy release, we can resolve the elongation of the molecular bond by approximately 1.2 a.u. within the duration of the x-ray pulse. The experiment paves the road toward time-resolved pump-probe photoelectron diffraction imaging at high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a highly heritable neuropsychiatric disease characterized by recurrent episodes of mania and depression. BD shows substantial clinical and genetic overlap with other psychiatric disorders, in particular schizophrenia (SCZ). The genes underlying this etiological overlap remain largely unknown. A recent SCZ genome wide association study (GWAS) by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium identified 128 independent genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The present study investigated whether these SCZ-associated SNPs also contribute to BD development through the performance of association testing in a large BD GWAS dataset (9747 patients, 14278 controls). After re-imputation and correction for sample overlap, 22 of 107 investigated SCZ SNPs showed nominal association with BD. The number of shared SCZ-BD SNPs was significantly higher than expected (p = 1.46x10-8). This provides further evidence that SCZ-associated loci contribute to the development of BD. Two SNPs remained significant after Bonferroni correction. The most strongly associated SNP was located near TRANK1, which is a reported genome-wide significant risk gene for BD. Pathway analyses for all shared SCZ-BD SNPs revealed 25 nominally enriched gene-sets, which showed partial overlap in terms of the underlying genes. The enriched gene-sets included calcium- and glutamate signaling, neuropathic pain signaling in dorsal horn neurons, and calmodulin binding. The present data provide further insights into shared risk loci and disease-associated pathways for BD and SCZ. This may suggest new research directions for the treatment and prevention of these two major psychiatric disorders.
The arachidonic acid cascade is a key player in inflammation, and numerous well-established drugs interfere with this pathway. Previous studies have suggested that simultaneous inhibition of 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO) and soluble epoxide hydrolase (sEH) results in synergistic anti-inflammatory effects. In this study, a novel prototype of a dual 5-LO/sEH inhibitor KM55 was rationally designed and synthesized. KM55 was evaluated in enzyme activity assays with recombinant enzymes. Furthermore, activity of KM55 in human whole blood and endothelial cells was investigated. KM55 potently inhibited both enzymes in vitro and attenuated the formation of leukotrienes in human whole blood. KM55 was also tested in a cell function-based assay. The compound significantly inhibited the LPS-induced adhesion of leukocytes to endothelial cells by blocking leukocyte activation.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a genetically complex mental illness characterized by severe oscillations of mood and behavior. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci that together account for a small portion of the heritability. To identify additional risk loci, we performed a two-stage meta-analysis of >9 million genetic variants in 9,784 bipolar disorder patients and 30,471 controls, the largest GWAS of BD to date. In this study, to increase power we used ~2,000 lithium-treated cases with a long-term diagnosis of BD from the Consortium on Lithium Genetics, excess controls, and analytic methods optimized for markers on the Xchromosome. In addition to four known loci, results revealed genome-wide significant associations at two novel loci: an intergenic region on 9p21.3 (rs12553324, p = 5.87×10-9; odds ratio = 1.12) and markers within ERBB2 (rs2517959, p = 4.53×10-9; odds ratio = 1.13). No significant X-chromosome associations were detected and X-linked markers explained very little BD heritability. The results add to a growing list of common autosomal variants involved in BD and illustrate the power of comparing well-characterized cases to an excess of controls in GWAS.
Reading is not only "cold" information processing, but involves affective and aesthetic processes that go far beyond what current models of word recognition, sentence processing, or text comprehension can explain. To investigate such "hot" reading processes, standardized instruments that quantify both psycholinguistic and emotional variables at the sublexical, lexical, inter-, and supralexical levels (e.g., phonological iconicity, word valence, arousal-span, or passage suspense) are necessary. One such instrument, the Berlin Affective Word List (BAWL) has been used in over 50 published studies demonstrating effects of lexical emotional variables on all relevant processing levels (experiential, behavioral, neuronal). In this paper, we first present new data from several BAWL studies. Together, these studies examine various views on affective effects in reading arising from dimensional (e.g., valence) and discrete emotion features (e.g., happiness), or embodied cognition features like smelling. Second, we extend our investigation of the complex issue of affective word processing to words characterized by a mixture of affects. These words entail positive and negative valence, and/or features making them beautiful or ugly. Finally, we discuss tentative neurocognitive models of affective word processing in the light of the present results, raising new issues for future studies.
Since the domestication of the urus, 10.000 years ago, mankind utilizes bovine milk for different purposes. Besides usage as a nutrient also the external application of milk on skin has a long tradition going back to at least the ancient Aegypt with Cleopatra VII as a great exponent. In order to test whether milk has impact on skin physiology, cultures of human skin fibroblasts were exposed to commercial bovine milk. Our data show significant induction of proliferation by milk (max. 2,3-fold, EC50: 2,5% milk) without toxic effects. Surprisingly, bovine milk was identified as strong inducer of collagen 1A1 synthesis at both, the protein (4-fold, EC50: 0,09% milk) and promoter level. Regarding the underlying molecular pathways, we show functional activation of STAT6 in a p44/42 and p38-dependent manner. More upstream, we identified IGF-1 and insulin as key factors responsible for milk-induced collagen synthesis. These findings show that bovine milk contains bioactive molecules that act on human skin cells. Therefore, it is tempting to test the herein introduced concept in treatment of atrophic skin conditions induced e.g. by UV light or corticosteroids.