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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
We study a set of German open-end mutual funds for a time period during which this industry emerged from its infancy. In those years, the distribution channel for mutual funds was dominated by the brick-and-mortar retail networks of the large universal banks. Using monthly observations from 12/1986 through 12/1998, we investigate if cross-sectional return differences across mutual funds affect their market shares. Although such a causal relation has been established in highly competitive markets, such as the United States, the rigid distribution system in place in Germany at the time may have caused retail performance and investment performance to uncouple. In fact, although we observe stark differences in investment performance across mutual funds (and over time), we find no evidence that cross-sectional performance differences affect the market shares of these funds. Klassifikation: G 23
Es werden verschiedene Methoden zur Messung der Risikoeinstellung einzelner Individuen vorgestellt und kritisch diskutiert. Berücksichtigt werden unter anderem Selbsteinschätzungen und experimentell orientierte Verfahren. Die Zusammenstellung wendet sich insbesondere an Wissenschaftler und Praktiker, die nach anwendbaren Verfahren zur Risikoeinstellungsmessung suchen.
In this paper we analyze the relation between fund performance and market share. Using three performance measures we first establish that significant differences in the risk-adjusted returns of the funds in the sample exist. Thus, investors may react to past fund performance when making their investment decisions. We estimated a model relating past performance to changes in market share and found that past performance has a significant positive effect on market share. The results of a specification test indicate that investors react to risk-adjusted returns rather than to raw returns. This suggests that investors may be more sophisticated than is often assumed.
Der vorliegende Beitrag führt eine detaillierte empirische Untersuchung über die Rolle der amtlichen Kursmakler an der Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse durch. Der verwendete Datensatz erlaubt eine Analyse des Einflusses der Maklertätigkeit auf Liquidität und Volatilität sowie eine Beurteilung der Profitabilität der Eigengeschäfte.
Die Beteiligung der Makler am Präsenzhandel ist erheblich. Ihre Eigengeschäfte machen über 20% des Handelsvolumens zu gerechneten Kursen und über 40% des Handelsvolumens im variablen Handel aus. Für letzteren wird zudem dokumentiert, daß die Tätigkeit der Makler zu einer deutlichen Reduktion der Geld-Brief-Spannen beiträgt. Die letztendlich gezahlte effektive Spanne beträgt im Durchschnitt weniger als ein Drittel der Spanne, die sich aus dem Orderbuch ergibt.
Für den Handel zu gerechneten Kursen wird gezeigt, daß die Preisfeststellung durch die Makler zu einer Verringerung der Volatilität führt. Eine Beurteilung des Einflusses der Makler auf die Volatilität im fortlaufenden Handel scheitert daran, daß das hierfür teilweise verwendete Maß, die Stabilisierungsrate, nach unserer Einschätzung keine aussagekräftigen Resultate liefert.
Die Makler erzielten während unseres Untersuchungszeitraums im Durchschnitt keinen Gewinn aus ihren Eigengeschäften. Eine Zerlegung der Gewinne in zwei Komponenten zeigt, daß positive Spannengewinne im Aggregat nicht für entstehende Positionierungsverluste kompensieren können.
Insgesamt zeigt unsere Untersuchung, daß die Kursmakler an den deutschen Wertpapierbörsen einen Beitrag zur Sicherung der Marktqualität leisten. Die Konsequenzen dieser Resultate für die Organisation des Aktienhandels in Deutschland werden diskutiert.
Insider trading and portfolio structure in experimental asset markets with a long lived asset
(1997)
We report results of a series of nine market experiments with asymmetric information and a fundamental value process that is more "realistic" than those in previous experiments. Both a call market institution and a continuous double auction mechanism are employed. We find considerable pricing inefficiencies that are only partially exploited by insiders. The magnitude of insider gains is analyzed separately for each experiment. We find support for the hypothesis that the continuous double auction leads to more efficient outcomes. Finally, we present evidence of an endowment effect: the initial portfolio structure influences the final asset holdings of experimental subjects.
This paper provides a detailed empirical analysis of the call auction procedure on the German stock exchanges. The auction is conducted by the Makler whose position resembles that of a NYSE specialist. We use a dataset which contains information about all individual orders for a sample of stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE). This sample allows us to calculate the cost of transacting in a call market and compare them to the costs of transacting in a continuous market. We find that transaction costs for small transactions in the call market are lower than the quoted spread in the order book of the continuous market whereas transaction costs for large transactions are higher than the spread in the continuous market.
We further address the question whether active participation of the Makler is advantageous. On the one hand he may accomodate order imbalances, increase the liquidity of the market and stabilize prices. On the other hand, the discretion in price setting gives him an incentive to manipulate prices. This may increase return volatility. Our dataset identifies the trades the Maklers make for their own accounts. We eliminate these trades and determine the price that would have obtained without their participation. Comparing this hypothetical price series to the actual transaction prices, we find that Makler participation tends to reduce return volatility. A further analysis shows that the actual prices are much closer to the surrounding prices of the continuous trading session than the hypothetical prices that would have obtained without Makler participation. These results indicate that the Maklers provide a valuable service to the market. We further calculate the profits associated with the positions taken by the Maklers and find that, on average, they do not earn profits on the positions they take. Their compensation is thus restricted to the commissions they receive.