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Institute
Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Background: Disease progression and delayed neurological complications are common after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). We explored the potential of quantitative blood-brain barrier (BBB) imaging to predict disease progression and neurological outcome.
Methods: Data were collected as part of the Co-Operative Studies of Brain Injury Depolarizations (COSBID). We analyzed retrospectively, blinded and semi-automatically magnetic resonance images from 124 aSAH patients scanned at 4 time points (24–48 h, 6–8 days, 12–15 days and 6–12 months) after the initial hemorrhage. Volume of brain with apparent pathology and/or BBB dysfunction (BBBD), subarachnoid space and lateral ventricles were measured. Neurological status on admission was assessed using the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies and Rosen-Macdonald scores. Outcome at ≥6 months was assessed using the extended Glasgow outcome scale and disease course (progressive or non-progressive based on imaging-detected loss of normal brain tissue in consecutive scans). Logistic regression was used to define biomarkers that best predict outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to assess accuracy of outcome prediction models.
Findings: In the present cohort, 63% of patients had progressive and 37% non-progressive disease course. Progressive course was associated with worse outcome at ≥6 months (sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 97%). Brain volume with BBBD was significantly larger in patients with progressive course already 24–48 h after admission (2.23 (1.23–3.17) folds, median with 95%CI), and persisted at all time points. The highest probability of a BBB-disrupted voxel to become pathological was found at a distance of ≤1 cm from the brain with apparent pathology (0·284 (0·122–0·594), p < 0·001, median with 95%CI). A multivariate logistic regression model revealed power for BBBD in combination with RMS at 24-48 h in predicting outcome (ROC area under the curve = 0·829, p < 0·001).
Interpretation: We suggest that early identification of BBBD may serve as a key predictive biomarker for neurological outcome in aSAH.
Fund: Dr. Dreier was supported by grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) (DFG DR 323/5-1 and DFG DR 323/10–1), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) Center for Stroke Research Berlin 01 EO 0801 and FP7 no 602150 CENTER-TBI.
Dr. Friedman was supported by grants from Israel Science Foundation and Canada Institute for Health Research (CIHR). Dr. Friedman was supported by grants from European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007–2013; grant #602102).
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The elliptic flow signal, v2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Background: Numerous cases of swine-origin 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1)-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) bridged by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy have been reported; however, complication rates are high. We present our experience with H1N1-associated ARDS and successful bridging of lung function using superimposed high-frequency jet ventilation (SHFJV) in combination with continuous positive airway pressure/assisted spontaneous breathing (CPAP/ASB).
Methods: We admitted five patients with H1N1 infection and ARDS to our intensive care unit. Although all patients required pure oxygen and controlled ventilation, oxygenation was insufficient. We applied SHFJV/CPAP/ASB to improve oxygenation.
Results: Initial PaO2/FiO2 ratio prior SHFJV was 58-79 mmHg. In all patients, successful oxygenation was achieved by SHFJV (PaO2/FiO2 ratio 105-306 mmHg within 24 h). Spontaneous breathing was set during first hours after admission. SHFJV could be stopped after 39, 40, 72, 100, or 240 h. Concomitant pulmonary herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection was observed in all patients. Two patients were successfully discharged. The other three patients relapsed and died within 7 weeks mainly due to combined HSV infection and in two cases reoccurring H1N1 infection.
Conclusions: SHFJV represents an alternative to bridge lung function successfully and improve oxygenation in the critically ill.
FINANCIAL SERVICES PROVIDERS ARE EXPOSED TO DIFFERENT SOURCES OF INSTITUTIONAL PRESSURE ARISING FROM THE INTENSE COMPETITION AND REGULATION IN THE BANKING SECTOR. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, THIS ARTICLE ANALYZES THE DETERMINANTS OF GRID ASSIMILATION AND THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONAL PRESSURE IN THE GRID ASSIMILATION PROCESS.
Background: The progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia can be predicted by cognitive, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers. Since most biomarkers reveal complementary information, a combination of biomarkers may increase the predictive power. We investigated which combination of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR)-sum-of-boxes, the word list delayed free recall from the Consortium to Establish a Registry of Dementia (CERAD) test battery, hippocampal volume (HCV), amyloid-beta1–42 (Aβ42), amyloid-beta1–40 (Aβ40) levels, the ratio of Aβ42/Aβ40, phosphorylated tau, and total tau (t-Tau) levels in the CSF best predicted a short-term conversion from MCI to AD dementia.
Methods: We used 115 complete datasets from MCI patients of the "Dementia Competence Network", a German multicenter cohort study with annual follow-up up to 3 years. MCI was broadly defined to include amnestic and nonamnestic syndromes. Variables known to predict progression in MCI patients were selected a priori. Nine individual predictors were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. ROC curves of the five best two-, three-, and four-parameter combinations were analyzed for significant superiority by a bootstrapping wrapper around a support vector machine with linear kernel. The incremental value of combinations was tested for statistical significance by comparing the specificities of the different classifiers at a given sensitivity of 85%.
Results: Out of 115 subjects, 28 (24.3%) with MCI progressed to AD dementia within a mean follow-up period of 25.5 months. At baseline, MCI-AD patients were no different from stable MCI in age and gender distribution, but had lower educational attainment. All single biomarkers were significantly different between the two groups at baseline. ROC curves of the individual predictors gave areas under the curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.77, and all single predictors were statistically superior to Aβ40. The AUC of the two-parameter combinations ranged from 0.77 to 0.81. The three-parameter combinations ranged from AUC 0.80–0.83, and the four-parameter combination from AUC 0.81–0.82. None of the predictor combinations was significantly superior to the two best single predictors (HCV and t-Tau). When maximizing the AUC differences by fixing sensitivity at 85%, the two- to four-parameter combinations were superior to HCV alone.
Conclusion: A combination of two biomarkers of neurodegeneration (e.g., HCV and t-Tau) is not superior over the single parameters in identifying patients with MCI who are most likely to progress to AD dementia, although there is a gradual increase in the statistical measures across increasing biomarker combinations. This may have implications for clinical diagnosis and for selecting subjects for participation in clinical trials.
The Infectious Diseases Working Party (AGIHO) of the German Society of Hematology and Oncology (DGHO) here presents its updated recommendations for the treatment of documented fungal infections. Invasive fungal infections are a main cause of morbidity and mortality in cancer patients undergoing intensive chemotherapy regimens. In recent years, new antifungal agents have been licensed, and agents already approved have been studied in new indications. The choice of the most appropriate antifungal treatment depends on the fungal species suspected or identified, the patient’s risk factors (e.g., length and depth of neutropenia), and the expected side effects. This guideline reviews the clinical studies that served as a basis for the following recommendations. All recommendations including the levels of evidence are summarized in tables to give the reader rapid access to the information.