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Background: Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.
Methods: In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE—with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies— from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5–24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.
Findings: Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56–76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36–0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46–11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06–2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96–6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75–0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95–6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03–0·07).
Interpretation: In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.
Funding: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.
SARS-CoV-2 and stroke characteristics: a report from the Multinational COVID-19 Stroke Study Group
(2020)
Background: Stroke is reported as a consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, there is a lack of regarding comprehensive stroke phenotype and characteristics
Methods: We conducted a multinational observational study on features of consecutive acute ischemic stroke (AIS), intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and cerebral venous or sinus thrombosis (CVST) among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. We further investigated the association of demographics, clinical data, geographical regions, and countries’ health expenditure among AIS patients with the risk of large vessel occlusion (LVO), stroke severity as measured by National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS), and stroke subtype as measured by the TOAST criteria. Additionally, we applied unsupervised machine learning algorithms to uncover possible similarities among stroke patients.
Results: Among the 136 tertiary centers of 32 countries who participated in this study, 71 centers from 17 countries had at least one eligible stroke patient. Out of 432 patients included, 323(74.8%) had AIS, 91(21.1%) ICH, and 18(4.2%) CVST. Among 23 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage, 16(69.5%) had no evidence of aneurysm. A total of 183(42.4%) patients were women, 104(24.1%) patients were younger than 55 years, and 105(24.4%) patients had no identifiable vascular risk factors. Among 380 patients who had known interval onset of the SARS-CoV-2 and stroke, 144(37.8%) presented to the hospital with chief complaints of stroke-related symptoms, with asymptomatic or undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among AIS patients 44.5% had LVO; 10% had small artery occlusion according to the TOAST criteria. We observed a lower median NIHSS (8[3-17], versus 11 [5-17]; p=0.02) and higher rate of mechanical thrombectomy (12.4% versus 2%; p<0.001) in countries with middle to high-health expenditure when compared to countries with lower health expenditure. The unsupervised machine learning identified 4 subgroups, with a relatively large group with no or limited comorbidities.
Conclusions: We observed a relatively high number of young, and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among stroke patients. Traditional vascular risk factors were absent among a relatively large cohort of patients. Among hospitalized patients, the stroke severity was lower and rate of mechanical thrombectomy was higher among countries with middle to high-health expenditure.