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Exploiting the natural experiment of the German reunification, we examine how consumers adapt to a new environment in their macroeconomic forecasting. We document that East Germans expect higher in inflation and make larger forecast errors than West
Germans even decades after reunification. Differences in consumption baskets, financial literacy, risk aversion or trust in the central bank cannot fully account for these patterns. We find most support for the explanation that East Germans, who were used to a strong norm of zero inflation, persistently overadjusted the level of their expectations in the face of the initial inflation shock in reunified Germany. Our findings suggest that large changes in the economic environment can permanently impede people's ability to form accurate macroeconomic expectations, with an important role for the interaction of old norms and new experiences around the event.
Background: Does the dogma of nephron sparing surgery (NSS) still stand for large renal masses? Available studies dealing with that issue are considerably biased often mixing imperative with elective indications for NSS and also including less malignant variants or even benign renal tumors. Here, we analyzed the oncological long-term outcomes of patients undergoing elective NSS or radical tumor nephrectomy (RN) for non-endophytic, large (≥7cm) clear cell renal carcinoma (ccRCC).
Methods: Prospectively acquired, clinical databases from two academic high-volume centers were screened for patients from 1980 to 2010. The query was strictly limited to patients with elective indications. Surgical complications were retrospectively assessed and classified using the Clavien-Dindo-classification system (CDS). Overall survival (OS) and cancer specific survival (CSS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier-method and the log-rank test.
Results: Out of in total 8664 patients in the databases, 123 patients were identified (elective NSS (n = 18) or elective RN (n = 105)) for ≥7cm ccRCC. The median follow-up over all was 102 months (range 3–367 months). Compared to the RN group, the NSS group had a significantly longer median OS (p = 0.014) and median CSS (p = 0.04).
Conclusions: In large renal masses, NSS can be performed safely with acceptable complication rates. In terms of long-term OS and CSS, NSS was at least not inferior to RN. Our findings suggest that NSS should also be performed in patients presenting with renal tumors ≥7cm whenever technically feasible. Limitations include its retrospective nature and the limited availability of data concerning long-term development of renal function in the two groups.
Background: Conversion from calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) therapy to a mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor following kidney transplantation may help to preserve graft function. Data are sparse, however, concerning the impact of conversion on posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) or the progression of pre-existing diabetes.
Methods: PTDM and other diabetes-related parameters were assessed post hoc in two large open-label multicenter trials. Kidney transplant recipients were randomized (i) at month 4.5 to switch to everolimus or remain on a standard cyclosporine (CsA)-based regimen (ZEUS, n = 300), or (ii) at month 3 to switch to everolimus, remain on standard CNI therapy or convert to everolimus with reduced-exposure CsA (HERAKLES, n = 497).
Results: There were no significant differences in the incidence of PTDM between treatment groups (log rank p = 0.97 [ZEUS], p = 0.90 [HERAKLES]). The mean change in random blood glucose from randomization to month 12 was also similar between treatment groups in both trials for patients with or without PTDM, and with or without pre-existing diabetes. The change in eGFR from randomization to month 12 showed a benefit for everolimus versus comparator groups in all subpopulations, but only reached significance in larger subgroups (no PTDM or no pre-existing diabetes).
Conclusions: Within the restrictions of this post hoc analysis, including non-standardized diagnostic criteria and limited glycemia laboratory parameters, these data do not indicate any difference in the incidence or severity of PTDM with early conversion from a CsA-based regimen to everolimus, or in the progression of pre-existing diabetes.
Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00154310 (registered September 2005) and NCT00514514 (registered August 2007); EudraCT (2006-007021-32 and 2004-004346-40).
Complex problem solving (CPS) is a highly transversal competence needed in educational and vocational settings as well as everyday life. The assessment of CPS is often computer-based, and therefore provides data regarding not only the outcome but also the process of CPS. However, research addressing this issue is scarce. In this article we investigated planning activities in the process of complex problem solving. We operationalized planning through three behavioral measures indicating the duration of the longest planning interval, the delay of the longest planning interval and the variance of intervals between each two successive interactions. We found a significant negative average effect for our delay indicator, indicating that early planning in CPS is more beneficial. However, we also found effects depending on task and interaction effects for all three indicators, suggesting that the effects of different planning behaviors on CPS are highly intertwined.
Background: The combination of intermediate-dose cytarabine plus mitoxantrone (IMA) can induce high complete remission rates with acceptable toxicity in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We present the final results of a randomized-controlled trial comparing IMA with the standard 7 + 3 induction regimen consisting of continuous infusion cytarabine plus daunorubicin (DA).
Patients and methods: Patients with newly diagnosed AML >60 years were randomized to receive either intermediate-dose cytarabine (1000 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1, 3, 5, 7) plus mitoxantrone (10 mg/m2 days 1–3) (IMA) or standard induction therapy with cytarabine (100 mg/m2 continuously days 1–7) plus daunorubicin (45 mg/m2 days 3–5) (DA). Patients in complete remission after DA received intermediate-dose cytarabine plus amsacrine as consolidation treatment, whereas patients after IMA were consolidated with standard-dose cytarabine plus mitoxantrone.
Results: Between February 2005 and October 2009, 485 patients were randomized; 241 for treatment arm DA and 244 for IMA; 76% of patients were >65 years. The complete response rate after DA was 39% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 33–45] versus 55% (95% CI: 49–61) after IMA (odds ratio 1.89, P = 0.001). The 6-week early-death rate was 14% in both arms. Relapse-free survival curves were superimposable in the first year, but separated afterwards, resulting in 3-year relapse-free survival rates of 29% versus 14% in the DA versus IMA arms, respectively (P = 0.042). The median overall survival was 10 months in both arms (P = 0.513).
Conclusion: The dose escalation of cytarabine in induction therapy lead to improved remission rates in the elderly AML patients. This did not translate into a survival advantage, most likely due to differences in consolidation treatment. Thus, effective consolidation strategies need to be further explored. In combination with an effective consolidation strategy, the use of intermediate-dose cytarabine in induction may improve curative treatment for elderly AML patients.
Background: Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) is the most common inflammatory myopathy in childhood and a major cause of morbidity among children with pediatric rheumatic diseases. The management of JDM is very heterogeneous. The JDM working group of the Society for Pediatric Rheumatology (GKJR) aims to define consensus- and practice-based strategies in order to harmonize diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of JDM.
Methods: The JDM working group was established in 2015 consisting of 23 pediatric rheumatologists, pediatric neurologists and dermatologists with expertise in the management of JDM. Current practice patterns of management in JDM had previously been identified via an online survey among pediatric rheumatologists and neurologists. Using a consensus process consisting of online surveys and a face-to-face consensus conference statements were defined regarding the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of JDM. During the conference consensus was achieved via nominal group technique. Voting took place using an electronic audience response system, and at least 80% consensus was required for individual statements.
Results: Overall 10 individual statements were developed, finally reaching a consensus of 92 to 100% regarding (1) establishing a diagnosis, (2) case definitions for the application of the strategies (moderate and severe JDM), (3) initial diagnostic testing, (4) monitoring and documentation, (5) treatment targets within the context of a treat-to-target strategy, (6) supportive therapies, (7) explicit definition of a treat-to-target strategy, (8) various glucocorticoid regimens, including intermittent intravenous methylprednisolone pulse and high-dose oral glucocorticoid therapies with tapering, (9) initial glucocorticoid-sparing therapy and (10) management of refractory disease.
Conclusion: Using a consensus process among JDM experts, statements regarding the management of JDM were defined. These statements and the strategies aid in the management of patients with moderate and severe JDM.
Using a data sample of 448.1 × 106 ψ(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, we report the first observation of the electromagnetic Dalitz decay ψ(3686) → η e+e−, with significances of 7.0σ and 6.3σ when reconstructing the η meson via its decay modes η → γπ+π− and η → π+π−η (η → γγ ), respectively. The weighted average branching fraction is determined to be B(ψ(3686) → η e+e−) = (1.90 ± 0.25 ± 0.11) × 10−6, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic.
We report new measurements of the cross sections for the production of Dbar D final states at the ψ(3770) resonance. Our data sample consists of an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb−1 of e+e− annihilation data produced by the BEPCII collider and collected and analyzed with the BESIII detector. We exclusively reconstruct three D0 and six D+ hadronic decay modes and use the ratio of the yield of fully reconstructed Dbar D events ("double tags") to the yield of all reconstructed D or bar D mesons ("single tags") to determine the number of D0bar D0 and D+D− events, benefiting from the cancellation of many systematic uncertainties. Combining these yields with an independent determination of the integrated luminosity of the data sample, we find the cross sections to be σ(e+e− → D0bar D0) nb and σ(e+e− → D+D−) = (2.830 ± 0.011 ± 0.026) nb, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively.
Using a data sample of 𝑒+𝑒− collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 567 pb−1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of √𝑠=4.6 GeV with the BESIII detector, we measure the absolute branching fraction of the inclusive semileptonic Λ+𝑐 decay with a double-tag method. We obtain ℬ(Λ+𝑐→𝑋𝑒+𝜈𝑒)=(3.95±0.34±0.09)%, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. Using the known Λ+𝑐 lifetime and the charge-averaged semileptonic decay width of nonstrange charmed mesons (𝐷0 and 𝐷+), we obtain the ratio of the inclusive semileptonic decay widths Γ(Λ+𝑐→𝑋𝑒+𝜈𝑒)/¯Γ(𝐷→𝑋𝑒+𝜈𝑒)=1.26±0.12.
Using a data sample of e+e− collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb−1 collected with the BESIII detector at a center-of-mass energy of s=3.773GeV, we search for the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D0→π0π0π0, π0π0η, π0ηη and ηηη using the double tag method. The absolute branching fractions are measured to be B(D0→π0π0π0)=(2.0±0.4±0.3)×10−4, B(D0→π0π0η)=(3.8±1.1±0.7)×10−4 and B(D0→π0ηη)=(7.3±1.6±1.5)×10−4 with the statistical significances of 4.8σ, 3.8σ and 5.5σ, respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones systematic. No significant signal of D0→ηηη is found, and the upper limit on its decay branching fraction is set to be B(D0→ηηη)<1.3×10−4 at the 90% confidence level.
The decay 𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝛾𝜙 is studied using a sample of 1.31×109 𝐽/𝜓 events collected with the BESIII detector. Two structures around 1475 MeV/𝑐2 and 1835 MeV/𝑐2 are observed in the 𝛾𝜙 invariant mass spectrum for the first time. With a fit on the 𝛾𝜙 invariant mass, which takes into account the interference between the two structures, and a simple analysis of the angular distribution, the structure around 1475 MeV/𝑐2 is found to favor an assignment as the 𝜂(1475) and the mass and width for the structure around 1835 MeV/𝑐2 are consistent with the 𝑋(1835). The statistical significances of the two structures are 13.5𝜎 and 6.3𝜎, respectively. The results indicate that both 𝜂(1475) and 𝑋(1835) contain a sizeable 𝑠¯𝑠 component.
Using a low background data sample of 9.7×105 𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝜂′, 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− events, which are 2 orders of magnitude larger than those from the previous experiments, recorded with the BESIII detector at BEPCII, the decay dynamics of 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− are studied with both model-dependent and model-independent approaches. The contributions of 𝜔 and the 𝜌(770)−𝜔 interference are observed for the first time in the decays 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− in both approaches. Additionally, a contribution from the box anomaly or the 𝜌(1450) resonance is required in the model-dependent approach, while the process specific part of the decay amplitude is determined in the model-independent approach.
Based on an 𝑒+𝑒− collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 567 pb−1 taken at the center-of-mass energy of √𝑠=4.6 GeV with the BESIII detector, we measure the absolute branching fraction of the inclusive decay Λ+𝑐→Λ+𝑋 to be ℬ(Λ+𝑐→Λ+𝑋)=(38.2+2.8−2.2±0.9)% using the double-tag method, where 𝑋 refers to any possible final state particles. In addition, we search for direct 𝐶𝑃 violation in the charge asymmetry of this inclusive decay for the first time, and obtain 𝒜𝐶𝑃≡[ℬ(Λ+𝑐→Λ+𝑋)−ℬ(¯Λ−𝑐 → ¯Λ+𝑋)]/[ℬ(Λ+𝑐→Λ+𝑋)+ℬ(¯Λ−𝑐 → ¯Λ+𝑋)]=(2.1+7.0−6.6±1.6)%, a statistically limited result with no evidence of 𝐶𝑃 violation.
Using an 𝑒+𝑒− collision data sample of 2.93 fb−1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV by the BESIII detector at BEPCII, we report the observation of 𝐷0→𝑎0(980)−𝑒+𝜈𝑒 and evidence for 𝐷+→𝑎0(980)0𝑒+𝜈𝑒 with significances of 6.4𝜎 and 2.9𝜎, respectively. The absolute branching fractions are determined to be ℬ(𝐷0→𝑎0(980)−𝑒+𝜈𝑒)×ℬ(𝑎0(980)−→𝜂𝜋−) = [1.33+0.33−0.29(stat)±0.09(syst)]×10−4 and ℬ(𝐷+→𝑎0(980)0𝑒+𝜈𝑒)×ℬ(𝑎0(980)0→𝜂𝜋0)=[1.66+0.81
−0.66(stat)±0.11(syst)]×10−4. This is the first time the 𝑎0(980) meson has been measured in a 𝐷0 semileptonic decay, which would open one more interesting page in the investigation of the nature of the puzzling 𝑎0(980) states.
Using a sample of 4.48×108 𝜓(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, we study the two-photon decays of the pseudoscalar mesons 𝜋0, 𝜂, 𝜂′, 𝜂(1405), 𝜂(1475), 𝜂(1760), and 𝑋(1835) in 𝐽/𝜓 radiative decays using 𝜓(3686)→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓 events. The 𝜋0, 𝜂, and 𝜂′ mesons are clearly observed in the two-photon mass spectra, and the branching fractions are determined to be 𝐵(𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝜋0→3𝛾)=(3.57±0.12±0.16)×10−5, 𝐵(𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝜂→3𝛾)=(4.42±0.04±0.18)×10−4, and 𝐵(𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝜂′→3𝛾)=(1.26±0.02±0.05)×10−4, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. No clear signal for 𝜂(1405), 𝜂(1475), 𝜂(1760) or 𝑋(1835) is observed in the two-photon mass spectra, and upper limits at the 90% confidence level on the product branching fractions are obtained.
Using a data sample of 448.1×106 𝜓(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII, we perform search for the hadronic transition ℎ𝑐→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓 via 𝜓(3686)→𝜋0ℎ𝑐. No signals of the transition are observed, and the upper limit on the product branching fraction ℬ(𝜓(3686)→𝜋0ℎ𝑐)ℬ(ℎ𝑐→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓) at the 90% confidence level (C.L.) is determined to be 2.0×10−6. This is the most stringent upper limit to date.