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Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross section of interest rates at any given time but neglects time-series dynamics, nor the equilibrium approach, which focuses on time-series dynamics (primarily those of the instantaneous rate) but pays comparatively little attention to fitting the entire cross section at any given time and has been shown to forecast poorly. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson-Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts. JEL Code: G1, E4, C5
Elliptic flow holds much promise for studying the early-time thermalization attained in ultrarelativistic nuclear collisions. Flow measurements also provide a means of distinguishing between hydrodynamic models and calculations which approach the low density (dilute gas) limit. Among the effects that can complicate the interpretation of elliptic flow measurements are azimuthal correlations that are unrelated to the reaction plane (nonflow correlations). Using data for Au + Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV from the STAR time projection chamber, it is found that four-particle correlation analyses can reliably separate flow and nonflow correlation signals. The latter account for on average about 15% of the observed second-harmonic azimuthal correlation, with the largest relative contribution for the most peripheral and the most central collisions. The results are also corrected for the effect of flow variations within centrality bins. This effect is negligible for all but the most central bin, where the correction to the elliptic flow is about a factor of 2. A simple new method for two-particle flow analysis based on scalar products is described. An analysis based on the distribution of the magnitude of the flow vector is also described.
We report the first observation of K*(892)0--> pi K in relativistic heavy ion collisions. The transverse momentum spectrum of (K*0+K*0)/2 from central Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV is presented. The ratios of the K*0 yield derived from these data to the yields of negative hadrons, charged kaons, and phi mesons have been measured in central and minimum bias collisions and compared with model predictions and comparable e+e-, pp, and p-barp results. The data indicate no dramatic reduction of K*0 production in relativistic heavy ion collisions despite expected losses due to rescattering effects.
The STAR Collaboration reports the first observation of exclusive rho 0 photoproduction, AuAu-->AuAu rho 0, and rho 0 production accompanied by mutual nuclear Coulomb excitation, AuAu-->Au [star] Au [star] rho 0, in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The rho 0 have low transverse momenta, consistent with coherent coupling to both nuclei. The cross sections at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV agree with theoretical predictions treating rho 0 production and Coulomb excitation as independent processes.
We report STAR results on the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v2 for strange particles K0S, Lambda , and Lambda -bar at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The value of v2 as a function of transverse momentum, pt, of the produced particle and collision centrality is presented for both particles up to pt~3.0 GeV/c. A strong pt dependence in v2 is observed up to 2.0 GeV/c. The v2 measurement is compared with hydrodynamic model calculations. The physics implications of the pt integrated v2 magnitude as a function of particle mass are also discussed.
Inclusive transverse momentum distributions of charged hadrons within 0.2<pT<6.0 GeV/c have been measured over a broad range of centrality for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV. Hadron yields are suppressed at high pT in central collisions relative to peripheral collisions and to a nucleon-nucleon reference scaled for collision geometry. Peripheral collisions are not suppressed relative to the nucleon-nucleon reference. The suppression varies continuously at intermediate centralities. The results indicate significant nuclear medium effects on high-pT hadron production in heavy-ion collisions at high energy.
We report the first measurement of strange ( Lambda ) and antistrange ( Lambda -bar) baryon production from sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Rapidity density and transverse mass distributions at midrapidity are presented as a function of centrality. The yield of Lambda and Lambda -bar hyperons is found to be approximately proportional to the number of negative hadrons. The production of Lambda -bar hyperons relative to negative hadrons increases very rapidly with transverse momentum. The magnitude of the increase cannot be described by existing hadronic string fragmentation models alone.
Lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) is a rare disease that generally affects young women and involves the abnormal proliferation of smooth muscle-like cells (LAM cells) in the lungs (pulmonary LAM) and extrapulmonary sites (extrapulmonary LAM). This disease is rare in males. It is hard to distinguish between lung cancer and pulmonary LAM, especially during early stages. Herein, we present a case of a 66-year-old man with a small nodule in the right upper lobe that was first diagnosed as a lung malignancy using a chest CT scan. After a wedge dissection, a pathologist performed a histologic and immunohistochemical examination, and a diagnosis of pulmonary LAM was made. We further performed a 518-gene panel analysis using next-generation sequencing, and only three genes, BARD1, BLM, and BRCA2, were found to have mutations. We also provide a summary of the diagnosis and treatment of this disease.
Der vorliegende Artikel beschäftigt sich mit dem im Westen noch weitgehend unbekannten Genre des chinesischen Kriminalromans "gongàn xiaoshuo", sowie dessen produktiver Rezeption durch den niederländischen Diplomaten und Schriftsteller Robert H. van Gulik (*09.08.1910, †24.09.1967). Als Verständnisgrundlage sollen dabei zunächst einige grundsätzliche Ausführungen und Erläuterungen zu besagtem Genre getätigt werden. Danach wird sich der Text van Guliks "Richter Di" zuwenden, jener Romanreihe, der der Sinologe seine bis heute anhaltende Bekanntheit, auch über wissenschaftliche Kreise hinaus, verdankt. Um den Rahmen dieser Aufsatzes nicht zu sprengen, soll sich jedoch vorwiegend auf die durch van Gulik angefertigte und veröffentlichte Übersetzung des ursprünglichen chinesischen Originals, 'Wǔ Zétian sì dà qí àn' ( 武則天四大奇案 , "Vier außerordentlich seltsame Fälle in der Regierungszeit der Kaiserin Wu") (auch: 'Dee Goong An' ( 狄公案, "Richter Dis Fälle")), sowie den dritten Roman der Reihe, 'Geisterspuk in Peng-lai', konzentriert werden, da in diesem der Beginn der Karriere Richter Dis beschrieben wird. Auf diese Weise kann sowohl die besondere Form des chinesischen Kriminalromans - die van Gulik in seinen übrigen "Richter Di"- Romanen übernimmt -, wie auch das tradierte China-Bild und die Anklänge konfuzianischer Philosophie in angemessenem Umfang bearbeitet werden. Die in den Romanen dargestellten Formen des Alltagslebens, die Regierungsstrukturen, die politischen Verschwörungen und die Angriffe von außen, sind historisch korrekt beschrieben und gewähren somit einen faszinierenden Einblick in die Welt des historischen Chinas.
Studien zur Lokalisation: Teil: 2.: Verbgebundene Lokalisation vs. Lokalisation von Propositionen
(1992)
Der vorliegende Aufsatz gliedert sich in zwei Unterabschnitte. In Abschnitt I geht es um verbgebundene, von der Valenz geforderte Lokalisation. Die einzelsprachlichen Beispiele zeigen, daß es sich konstant um Verben der Position oder Positionsveränderung (Bewegungs - und Transferverben) handelt, die lokale Relationen wie LOK (Ortsruhe), SOURCE oder GOAL fordern. Unter Bezugnahme auf die Erkenntnisse zur Dimension der PARTIZIPATION (H. Seiler/W. Premper 1991) können die Varianten, wie sie in der einzelsprachlichen Kodierung zu beobachten sind, zwischen den Polen zentralisiert und dezentralisiert (peripher) angeordnet werden . Dies bedeutet, daß lokale Relationen (als verbgebundene Entitäten) einerseits am Partizipatum selbst und andererseits im Bereich der Partizipanten in Gestalt verschiedener grammatischer Relationen in Erscheinung treten können. Im ersteren Fall kann die Inkorporation einer lokalen Ergänzung ins Partizipatum als optimal zentralisiert betrachtet werden, während eine Kodierung als Präpositionalphrase das andere Extrem darstellt. Dazwischen liegt eine Kodierung als "Subjekt"- bzw. "Objekt"-Relation, für die sich, wie auch für die anderen Fälle, eine Reihe von Beispielen finden lassen. Somit schwankt die Skala der Kodierungsmöglichkeiten für verbgebundene lokale Relationen zwischen Inkorporation und Präpositional-/Postpositionalphrasen, was letztlich eine Differenzierung in markierte und unmarkierte, im letzteren Falle gar prototypische Instanzen bedeutet. Im II . Abschnitt geht es darum, so weit dies möglich erscheint, Varianten zu beschreiben, die funktional die Aufgabe einer Situierung einer Gesamtproposition bewerkstelligen.
This paper studies the interactions between corporate law and VC exits by acquisitions, an increasingly common source of VC-related litigation. We find that transactions by VC funds under liquidity pressure are characterized by (i) a substantially lower sale price; (ii) a greater probability of industry outsiders as acquirers; (iii) a positive abnormal return for acquirers. These features indicate the existence of fire sales, which satisfy VCs' liquidation preferences but hurt common shareholders, leaving board members with conflicting fiduciary duties and litigation risks. Exploiting an important court ruling that establishes the board’s fiduciary duties to common shareholders as a priority, we find that after the ruling maturing VCs become less likely to exit by fire sales and they distribute cash to their investors less timely. However, VCs experience more difficult fundraising ex-ante, highlighting the potential cost of a common-favoring regime. Overall the evidence has important implications for optimal fiduciary duty design in VC-backed start-ups.
Vasointestinal peptide metabolism plays a key physiological role in multimodular levels of vasodilatory, smooth muscle cell proliferative, parenchymal, and inflammatory lung reactions. In animal studies, vasointestinal peptide relaxes isolated pulmonary arterial segments from several mammalian species in vitro and neutralizes the pulmonary vasoconstrictor effect of endothelin. In some animal models, it reduces pulmonary vascular resistance in vivo and in monocrotaline-induced pulmonary hypertension. A 58-year-old woman presented with dyspnea and mild edema of the lower extremities. A bronchoscopy was performed without any suspicious findings suggesting a central tumor or other infiltrative disease. Endobronchial ultrasound revealed enlarged pulmonary arteries containing thrombi, a few enlarged lymph nodes, and enlarged mediastinal tissue anatomy with suspicion for mediastinal infiltration of a malignant process. We estimated that less than 10% of the peripheral vascular bed of the lung was involved in direct consolidated fibrosis as demonstrated in the left upper lobe apex. Further, direct involvement of fibrosis around the main stems of the pulmonary arteries was assumed to be low from positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans. Assuming a positive influence of low-dose radiation, it was not expected that this could have reduced pulmonary vascular resistance by over two thirds of the initial result. However; it was noted that this patient had idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension mixed with "acute" (mediastinal) fibrosis which could have contributed to the unexpected success of reduction of pulmonary vascular resistance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of successful treatment of idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension, probably as a result of low-dose radiation to the pulmonary arterial main stems. The patient continues to have no specific complaints concerning her idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension.
Tracheomalacia or tracheobronchomalacia (TM or TBM) is a common problem especially for elderly patients often unfit for surgical techniques. Several surgical or minimally invasive techniques have already been described. Stenting is one option but in general long-time stenting is accompanied by a high complication rate. Stent removal is more difficult in case of self-expandable nitinol stents or metallic stents in general in comparison to silicone stents. The main disadvantage of silicone stents in comparison to uncovered metallic stents is migration and plugging. We compared the operation time and in particular the duration of a sufficient Dumon stent fixation with different techniques in a patient with severe posttracheotomy TM and strongly reduced mobility of the vocal cords due to Parkinson’s disease. The combined approach with simultaneous Dumon stenting and endoluminal transtracheal externalized suture under cone-beam computer tomography guidance with the Berci needle was by far the fastest approach compared to a (not performed) surgical intervention, or even purely endoluminal suturing through the rigid bronchoscope. The duration of the endoluminal transtracheal externalized suture was between 5 minutes and 9 minutes with the Berci needle; the pure endoluminal approach needed 51 minutes. The alternative of tracheobronchoplasty was refused by the patient. In general, 180 minutes for this surgical approach is calculated. The costs of the different approaches are supposed to vary widely due to the fact that in Germany 1 minute in an operation room costs on average approximately 50–60€ inclusive of taxes. In our own hospital (tertiary level), it is nearly 30€ per minute in an operation room for a surgical approach. Calculating an additional 15 minutes for patient preparation and transfer to wake-up room, therefore a total duration inside the investigation room of 30 minutes, the cost per flexible bronchoscopy is per minute on average less than 6€. Although the Dumon stenting requires a set-up with more expensive anesthesiology accompaniment, which takes longer than a flexible investigation estimated at 1 hour in an operation room, still without calculation of the costs of the materials and specialized staff that the surgical approach would consume at least 3,000€ more than a minimally invasive approach performed with the Berci needle. This difference is due to the longer time of the surgical intervention which is calculated at approximately 180 minutes in comparison to the achieved non-surgical approach of 60 minutes in the operation suite.
Introduction: Currently there are several advanced guiding techniques for pathoanatomical diagnosis of incidental solitary pulmonary nodules (iSPN): Electromagnetic navigation (EMN) with or without endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS) with miniprobe, transthoracic ultrasound (TTUS) for needle approach to the pleural wall and adjacent lung and computed tomography (CT) -guidance for (seldom if ever used) endobronchial or (common) transthoracical approach. In several situations one technique is not enough for efficient diagnosis, therefore we investigated a new diagnostic technique of endobronchial guided biopsies by a Cone Beam Computertomography (CBCT) called DynaCT (SIEMENS AG Forchheim, Germany). Method and Material: In our study 33 incidental solitary pulmonary nodules (iSPNs) (28 malignant, 5 benign; mean diameter 25 +/-12mm, shortest distance to pleura 25+/-18mm) were eligible according to in- and exclusion criteria. Realtime and onsite navigation were performed according to our standard protocol.22 All iSPN were controlled with a second technique when necessary and clinical feasible in case of unspecific or unexpected histological result. In all cases common guidelines of treatment of different iSPNs were followed in a routine manner. Results: Overall navigational yield (ny) was 91% and diagnostic yield (dy) 70%, dy for all accomplished malignant cases (n=28) was 82%. In the subgroup analysis of the invisible iSPN (n=12, 11 malignant, 1 benign; mean diameter 15+/-3mm) we found an overall dy of 75%. For the first time we describe a significant difference in specifity of biopsy results in regards to the position of the forceps in the 3-dimensional volume (3DV) of the iSPN in the whole sample group. Comparing the specifity of biopsies of a 3D-uncentered but inside the outer one third of an iSPN-3DV with the specifity of biopsies of centered forceps position (meaning the inner two third of an iSPN-3DV) reveals a significant (p=0,0375 McNemar) difference for the size group (>1cm) of 0,9 for centered biopsies vs. 0,3 for uncentered biopsies. Therefore only 3D-centered biopsies should be relied on especially in case of a benign result. Conclusion:The diagnostic yield of DynaCT navigation guided transbronchial biopsies (TBB) only with forceps is at least up to twofold higher than conventional TBB for iSPNs <2cm. The diagnostic yield of DynaCT navigation guided forceps TBB in invisible SPNs is at least in the range of other navigation studies which were performed partly with multiple navigation tools and multiple instruments. For future diagnostic and therapeutic approaches it is so far the only onsite and realtime extrathoracic navigation approach (except for computed tomography (CT)-fluoroscopy) in the bronchoscopy suite which keeps the working channel open. The system purchase represents an important investment for hospitals but it is a multidisciplinary and multinavigational tool with possible access via bronchial airways, transthoracical or vascular approach at the same time and on the same table without the need for an expensive disposable instrument use.
Working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf) are highly correlated, but what accounts for this relationship remains elusive. Process-overlap theory (POT) proposes that the positive manifold is mainly caused by the overlap of domain-general executive processes which are involved in a battery of mental tests. Thus, executive processes are proposed to explain the relationship between WMC and Gf. The current study aims to (1) achieve a relatively purified representation of the core executive processes including shifting and inhibition by a novel approach combining experimental manipulations and fixed-links modeling, and (2) to explore whether these executive processes account for the overlap between WMC and Gf. To these ends, we reanalyzed data of 215 university students who completed measures of WMC, Gf, and executive processes. Results showed that the model with a common factor, as well as shifting and inhibition factors, provided the best fit to the data of the executive function (EF) task. These components explained around 88% of the variance shared by WMC and Gf. However, it was the common EF factor, rather than inhibition and shifting, that played a major part in explaining the common variance. These results do not support POT as underlying the relationship between WMC and Gf.
The genus Afronurus has several very common mayfly species in China and they are widely distributed in this country. Some of them are quite similar to each other in both imaginal and nymphal stages. However, these species have not been systematically compared and reviewed so far. In this study, six species are recognized. All nymphs of them share the following characters: gills V–VI with additional arrow-like accessory lobes, branched dentisetae, two rows of bristles and setae on hindtibiae and spotted abdominal terga. The males have divergent penes and clearly expressed titillators. The nymphs of the new species A. drepanophyllus sp. nov. have sickle-like gills I, spotted and striped body color, and males have unique genitalia. The nymphal stages of A. furcatus and A. hunanensis, which are associated and described for the first time, have similar body color to A. drepanophyllus sp. nov., but their pale dots on the head capsules and the shape of the hypopharynx are different. Keys to males and nymphs of the six species are provided.
Background We published the Canadian 2003 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy, and Management of Hereditary Angioedema (HAE; C1 inhibitor [C1-INH] deficiency) and updated this as Hereditary angioedema: a current state-of-the-art review: Canadian Hungarian 2007 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy, and Management of Hereditary Angioedema. Objective To update the International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy and Management of Hereditary Angioedema (circa 2010). Methods The Canadian Hereditary Angioedema Network (CHAEN)/Reseau Canadien d'angioedeme hereditaire (RCAH) (www.haecanada.com) and cosponsors University of Calgary and the Canadian Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (with an unrestricted educational grant from CSL Behring) held our third Conference May 15th to 16th, 2010 in Toronto Canada to update our consensus approach. The Consensus document was reviewed at the meeting and then circulated for review. Results This manuscript is the 2010 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy and Management of Hereditary Angioedema that resulted from that conference. Conclusions Consensus approach is only an interim guide to a complex disorder such as HAE and should be replaced as soon as possible with large phase III and IV clinical trials, meta analyses, and using data base registry validation of approaches including quality of life and cost benefit analyses, followed by large head-to-head clinical trials and then evidence-based guidelines and standards for HAE disease management.
Objectives: To compare efficacy and safety of ixekizumab (IXE) to adalimumab (ADA) in biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naïve patients with both active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and skin disease and inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (csDMARDs).
Methods: Patients with active PsA were randomised (1:1) to approved dosing of IXE or ADA in an open-label, head-to-head, blinded assessor clinical trial. The primary objective was to evaluate whether IXE was superior to ADA at week 24 for simultaneous achievement of a ≥50% improvement from baseline in the American College of Rheumatology criteria (ACR50) and a 100% improvement from baseline in the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI100). Major secondary objectives, also at week 24, were to evaluate whether IXE was: (1) non-inferior to ADA for achievement of ACR50 and (2) superior to ADA for PASI100 response. Additional PsA, skin, treat-to-target and quality-of-life outcome measures were assessed at week 24.
Results: The primary efficacy endpoint was met (IXE: 36%, ADA: 28%; p=0.036). IXE was non-inferior for ACR50 response (IXE: 51%, ADA: 47%; treatment difference: 3.9%) and superior for PASI100 response (IXE: 60%, ADA: 47%; p=0.001). IXE had greater response versus ADA in additional PsA, skin, nail, treat-to-target and quality-of-life outcomes. Serious adverse events were reported in 8.5% (ADA) and 3.5% (IXE) of patients.
Conclusions: IXE was superior to ADA in achievement of simultaneous improvement of joint and skin disease (ACR50 and PASI100) in patients with PsA and inadequate response to csDMARDs. Safety and tolerability for both biologicals were aligned with established safety profiles.