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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a human pathogen that causes health-care associated blood stream infections (BSI). Although P. aeruginosa BSI are associated with high mortality rates, the clinical relevance of pathogen-derived prognostic biomarker to identify patients at risk for unfavorable outcome remains largely unexplored. We found novel pathogen-derived prognostic biomarker candidates by applying a multi-omics approach on a multicenter sepsis patient cohort. Multi-level Cox regression was used to investigate the relation between patient characteristics and pathogen features (2298 accessory genes, 1078 core protein levels, 107 parsimony-informative variations in reported virulence factors) with 30-day mortality. Our analysis revealed that presence of the helP gene encoding a putative DEAD-box helicase was independently associated with a fatal outcome (hazard ratio 2.01, p = 0.05). helP is located within a region related to the pathogenicity island PAPI-1 in close proximity to a pil gene cluster, which has been associated with horizontal gene transfer. Besides helP, elevated protein levels of the bacterial flagellum protein FliL (hazard ratio 3.44, p < 0.001) and of a bacterioferritin-like protein (hazard ratio 1.74, p = 0.003) increased the risk of death, while high protein levels of a putative aminotransferase were associated with an improved outcome (hazard ratio 0.12, p < 0.001). The prognostic potential of biomarker candidates and clinical factors was confirmed with different machine learning approaches using training and hold-out datasets. The helP genotype appeared the most attractive biomarker for clinical risk stratification due to its relevant predictive power and ease of detection.
This paper reports on Monte Carlo simulation results for future measurements of the moduli of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors, |GE | and |GM|, using the ¯pp → μ+μ− reaction at PANDA (FAIR). The electromagnetic form factors are fundamental quantities parameterizing the electric and magnetic structure of hadrons. This work estimates the statistical and total accuracy with which the form factors can be measured at PANDA, using an analysis of simulated data within the PandaRoot software framework. The most crucial background channel is ¯pp → π+π−,due to the very similar behavior of muons and pions in the detector. The suppression factors are evaluated for this and all other relevant background channels at different values of antiproton beam momentum. The signal/background separation is based on a multivariate analysis, using the Boosted Decision Trees method. An expected background subtraction is included in this study, based on realistic angular distribuations of the background contribution. Systematic uncertainties are considered and the relative total uncertainties of the form factor measurements are presented.