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Using four exclosures, the impact of mouflon grazing and weather on plant communities of the phytosociological alliances Koelerio-Phleion phleoidis and Hyperico perforati-Scleranthion perennis occurring on shallow soils within a forest landscape was studied in the Křivoklátsko Biosphere Reserve (Czech Republic) during seven years. In the years 2004–2010, the vascular plant species composition was recorded annually on a total of eight fenced and eight control plots, each 2 m × 1 m in size. Treatment, time, and weather data were used as explanatory variables in ordination and correlation analyses. Cover values of different life forms and indicator values varied significantly in dependence on the weather conditions of the preceding five months; however, correlations varied according to the vegetation type and were rather rarely detected. The effect of fencing appeared important in all study plots; however, the temporal trends were significant only in half of them. We did not find a significant interaction between treatment and time in the total dataset. A successional change was detected in one fenced plot only; in all other cases, the species composition fluctuated – a phenomenon that is not directly attributable to weather conditions. In the fenced plots, the herbaceous vegetation cover decreased, mainly due to litter accumulation and partly due to shrub encroachment. At least some parts of the valuable and species-rich habitats could be maintained under high game density, but some parts are endangered by eutrophication and game grazing. Nature conservation management should balance both mechanisms.