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Shallow meritocracy
(2023)
Meritocracies aspire to reward hard work and promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances into which they were born. However, circumstances often shape the choice to work hard. I show that people's merit judgments are "shallow" and insensitive to this effect. They hold others responsible for their choices, even if these choices have been shaped by unequal circumstances. In an experiment, US participants judge how much money workers deserve for the effort they exert. Unequal circumstances disadvantage some workers and discourage them from working hard. Nonetheless, participants reward the effort of disadvantaged and advantaged workers identically, regardless of the circumstances under which choices are made. For some participants, this reflects their fundamental view regarding fair rewards. For others, the neglect results from the uncertain counterfactual. They understand that circumstances shape choices but do not correct for this because the counterfactual—what would have happened under equal circumstances—remains uncertain.
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models -- their subjective understanding -- of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models -- a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.
No association between Parkinson disease and autoantibodies against NMDA-type glutamate receptors
(2019)
Background: IgG-class autoantibodies to N-Methyl-D-Aspartate (NMDA)-type glutamate receptors define a novel entity of autoimmune encephalitis. Studies examining the prevalence of NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies in patients with Parkinson disease with/without dementia produced conflicting results. We measured NMDA antibodies in a large, well phenotyped sample of Parkinson patients without and with cognitive impairment (n = 296) and controls (n = 295) free of neuropsychiatric disease. Detailed phenotyping and large numbers allowed statistically meaningful correlation of antibody status with diagnostic subgroups as well as quantitative indicators of disease severity and cognitive impairment.
Methods: NMDA antibodies were analysed in the serum of patients and controls using well established validated assays. We used anti-NMDA antibody positivity as the main independent variable and correlated it with disease status and phenotypic characteristics.
Results: The frequency of NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies was lower in Parkinson patients (13%) than in controls (22%) and higher than in previous studies in both groups. NMDA IgA/IgM antibodies were neither significantly associated with diagnostic subclasses of Parkinson disease according to cognitive impairment, nor with quantitative indicators of disease severity and cognitive impairment. A positive NMDA antibody status was positively correlated with age in controls but not in Parkinson patients.
Conclusion: It is unlikely albeit not impossible that NMDA antibodies play a significant role in the pathogenesis or progression of Parkinson disease e.g. to Parkinson disease with dementia, while NMDA IgG antibodies define a separate disease of its own.
Aim: The cytokine receptor tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 9 (TNFRSF9) is mainly considered to be a co-stimulatory activation marker in hematopoietic cells. Several preclinical models have shown a dramatic beneficial effect of treatment approaches targeting TNFRSF9 with agonistic antibodies. However, preliminary clinical phase I/II studies were stopped after the occurrence of several severe deleterious side effects. In a previous study, it was demonstrated that TNFRSF9 was strongly expressed by reactive astrocytes in primary central nervous system (CNS) tumors, but was largely absent from tumor or inflammatory cells. The aim of the present study was to address the cellular source of TNFRSF9 expression in the setting of human melanoma brain metastasis, a highly immunogenic tumor with a prominent tropism to the CNS.
Methods: Melanoma brain metastasis was analyzed in a cohort of 78 patients by immunohistochemistry for TNFRSF9 and its expression was correlated with clinicopathological parameters including sex, age, survival, tumor size, number of tumor spots, and BRAF V600E expression status.
Results: Tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 9 was frequently expressed independently on both melanoma and endothelial cells. In addition, TNFRSF9 was also present on smooth muscle cells of larger vessels and on a subset of lymphomonocytic tumor infiltrates. No association between TNFRSF9 expression and patient survival or other clinicopathological parameters was seen. Of note, several cases showed a gradual increase in TNFRSF9 expression on tumor cells with increasing distance from blood vessels, an observation that might be linked to hypoxia-driven TNFRSF9 expression in tumor cells.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that the cellular source of TNFRSF9 in melanoma brain metastasis largely exceeds the lymphomonocytic pool, and therefore further careful (re-) assessment of potential TNFRSF9 functions in cell types other than hematopoietic cells is needed. Furthermore, the hypothesis of hypoxia-driven TNFRSF9 expression in brain metastasis melanoma cells requires further functional testing.
Under certain conditions, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles can exist in the atmosphere in an amorphous solid or semi-solid state. To determine their relevance to processes such as ice nucleation or chemistry occurring within particles requires knowledge of the temperature and relative humidity (RH) range for SOA to exist in these states. In the CLOUD experiment at CERN, we deployed a new in-situ optical method to detect the viscosity of α-pinene SOA particles and measured their transition from the amorphous viscous to liquid state. The method is based on the depolarising properties of laboratory-produced non-spherical SOA particles and their transformation to non-depolarising spherical liquid particles during deliquescence. We found that particles formed and grown in the chamber developed an asymmetric shape through coagulation. A transition to spherical shape was observed as the RH was increased to between 35 % at −10 ◦C and 80 % at −38 ◦C, confirming previous calculations of the viscosity transition conditions. Consequently, α-pinene SOA particles exist in a viscous state over a wide range of ambient conditions, including the cirrus region of the free troposphere. This has implications for the physical, chemical and ice-nucleation properties of SOA and SOA-coated particles in the atmosphere.
Background: Pythium ultimum (P. ultimum) is a ubiquitous oomycete plant pathogen responsible for a variety of diseases on a broad range of crop and ornamental species. Results: The P. ultimum genome (42.8 Mb) encodes 15,290 genes and has extensive sequence similarity and synteny with related Phytophthora species, including the potato blight pathogen Phytophthora infestans. Whole transcriptome sequencing revealed expression of 86% of genes, with detectable differential expression of suites of genes under abiotic stress and in the presence of a host. The predicted proteome includes a large repertoire of proteins involved in plant pathogen interactions although surprisingly, the P. ultimum genome does not encode any classical RXLR effectors and relatively few Crinkler genes in comparison to related phytopathogenic oomycetes. A lower number of enzymes involved in carbohydrate metabolism were present compared to Phytophthora species, with the notable absence of cutinases, suggesting a significant difference in virulence mechanisms between P. ultimum and more host specific oomycete species. Although we observed a high degree of orthology with Phytophthora genomes, there were novel features of the P. ultimum proteome including an expansion of genes involved in proteolysis and genes unique to Pythium. We identified a small gene family of cadherins, proteins involved in cell adhesion, the first report in a genome outside the metazoans. Conclusions: Access to the P. ultimum genome has revealed not only core pathogenic mechanisms within the oomycetes but also lineage specific genes associated with the alternative virulence and lifestyles found within the pythiaceous lineages compared to the Peronosporaceae.
Under certain conditions, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles can exist in the atmosphere in an amorphous solid or semi-solid state. To determine their relevance to processes such as ice nucleation or chemistry occurring within particles requires knowledge of the temperature and relative humidity (RH) range for SOA to exist in these states. In the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) experiment at The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN), we deployed a new in situ optical method to detect the viscous state of α-pinene SOA particles and measured their transition from the amorphous highly viscous state to states of lower viscosity. The method is based on the depolarising properties of laboratory-produced non-spherical SOA particles and their transformation to non-depolarising spherical particles at relative humidities near the deliquescence point. We found that particles formed and grown in the chamber developed an asymmetric shape through coagulation. A transition to a spherical shape was observed as the RH was increased to between 35 % at −10 °C and 80 % at −38 °C, confirming previous calculations of the viscosity-transition conditions. Consequently, α-pinene SOA particles exist in a viscous state over a wide range of ambient conditions, including the cirrus region of the free troposphere. This has implications for the physical, chemical, and ice-nucleation properties of SOA and SOA-coated particles in the atmosphere.
Mitigating climate change necessitates global cooperation, yet global data on individuals’ willingness to act remain scarce. In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance, wherein individuals around the globe systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act. This perception gap, combined with individuals showing conditionally cooperative behaviour, poses challenges to further climate action. Therefore, raising awareness about the broad global support for climate action becomes critically important in promoting a unified response to climate change.