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Using a data sample of 4.481×108 𝜓(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector, we report the first observation of the four-lepton-decays 𝐽/𝜓→𝑒+𝑒−𝑒+𝑒− and 𝐽/𝜓→𝑒+𝑒−𝜇+𝜇− utilizing the process 𝜓(3686)→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓. The branching fractions are determined to be [5.48±0.31(stat)±0.45(syst)]×10−5 and [3.53±0.22(stat)±0.13(syst)]×10−5, respectively. The results are consistent with theoretical predictions. No significant signal is observed for 𝐽/𝜓→𝜇+𝜇−𝜇+𝜇−, and an upper limit on the branching fraction is set at 1.6×10−6 at the 90% confidence level. A 𝐶𝑃 asymmetry observable is constructed for the first two channels, which is measured to be (−0.012±0.054±0.010) and (0.062±0.059±0.006), respectively. No evidence for 𝐶𝑃 violation is observed in this process.
he Born cross sections for the process 𝑒+𝑒−→𝜂′𝜋+𝜋− at different center-of-mass energies between 2.00 and 3.08 GeV are reported with improved precision from an analysis of data samples collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring. An obvious structure is observed in the Born cross section line shape. Fit as a Breit-Wigner resonance, it has a statistical significance of 6.3𝜎 and a mass and width of 𝑀=(2111±43±25) MeV/𝑐2 and Γ=(135±34±30) MeV, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. These measured resonance parameters agree with the measurements of BABAR in 𝑒+𝑒−→𝜂′𝜋+𝜋− and BESIII in 𝑒+𝑒−→𝜔𝜋0 within two standard deviations.
Observation of a near-threshold structure in the K⁺ recoil-mass spectra in e⁺e⁻ → K⁺(Dₛ⁻D*⁰+Dₛ*⁻D⁰)
(2021)
We report a study of the processes of 𝑒+𝑒−→𝐾+𝐷−𝑠𝐷*0 and 𝐾+𝐷*−𝑠𝐷0 based on 𝑒+𝑒− annihilation samples collected with the BESIII detector operating at BEPCII at five center-of-mass energies ranging from 4.628 to 4.698 GeV with a total integrated luminosity of 3.7 fb−1. An excess of events over the known contributions of the conventional charmed mesons is observed near the 𝐷−𝑠𝐷*0 and 𝐷*−𝑠𝐷0 mass thresholds in the 𝐾+ recoil-mass spectrum for events collected at √𝑠=4.681 GeV. The structure matches a mass-dependent-width Breit-Wigner line shape, whose pole mass and width are determined as (3982.5+1.8
−2.6±2.1) MeV/𝑐2 and (12.8+5.3−4.4±3.0) MeV, respectively. The first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. The significance of the resonance hypothesis is estimated to be 5.3 𝜎 over the contributions only from the conventional charmed mesons. This is the first candidate for a charged hidden-charm tetraquark with strangeness, decaying into 𝐷−𝑠𝐷*0 and 𝐷*−𝑠𝐷0. However, the properties of the excess need further exploration with more statistics.
We report a study of the processes of e+e−→K+(D−sD∗0+D∗−sD0) based on e+e− annihilation samples collected with the BESIII detector operating at BEPCII at five center-of-mass energies ranging from 4.628 to 4.698 GeV with a total integrated luminosity of 3.7 fb−1. An excess over the known contributions of the conventional charmed mesons is observed near the D−sD∗0 and D∗−sD0 mass thresholds in the K+ recoil-mass spectrum for events collected at s√=4.681 GeV. The structure matches a mass-dependent-width Breit-Wigner line shape, whose pole mass and width are determined as (3982.5+1.8−2.6±2.1) MeV/c2 and (12.8+5.3−4.4±3.0) MeV, respectively. The first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. The significance of the resonance hypothesis is estimated to be 5.3 σ over the contributions only from the conventional charmed mesons. This is the first candidate of the charged hidden-charm tetraquark with strangeness, decaying into D−sD∗0 and D∗−sD0. However, the properties of the excess need further exploration with more statistics.
We present the first experimental search for the rare charm decay D0→π0ν¯ν. It is based on an e+e− collision sample consisting of 10.6×10^6 pairs of D0¯D0 mesons collected by the BESIII detector at √s=3.773 GeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb^−1. A data-driven method is used to ensure the reliability of the background modeling. No significant D0→π0ν¯ν signal is observed in data and an upper limit of the branching fraction is set to be 2.1×10^-4 at the 90% confidence level. This is the first experimental constraint on charmed-hadron decays into dineutrino final states.
We report on the first search for ¯Λ−Λ oscillations in the decay 𝐽/𝜓→𝑝𝐾−¯Λ+c.c. by analyzing 1.31×109 𝐽/𝜓 events accumulated with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. The 𝐽/𝜓 events are produced using 𝑒+𝑒− collisions at a center of mass energy √𝑠=3.097 GeV. No evidence for hyperon oscillations is observed. The upper limit for the oscillation rate of ¯Λ to Λ hyperons is determined to be 𝒫(Λ)=[ℬ(𝐽/𝜓→𝑝𝐾−Λ+c.c.)/ℬ(𝐽/𝜓→𝑝𝐾−¯Λ+c.c.)]<4.4×10−6 corresponding to an oscillation parameter 𝛿𝑚Λ¯Λ of less than 3.8×10−18 GeV at the 90% confidence level.
Using a data sample of e+e− collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb−1 collected with the BESIII detector at a center-of-mass energy of s=3.773GeV, we search for the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D0→π0π0π0, π0π0η, π0ηη and ηηη using the double tag method. The absolute branching fractions are measured to be B(D0→π0π0π0)=(2.0±0.4±0.3)×10−4, B(D0→π0π0η)=(3.8±1.1±0.7)×10−4 and B(D0→π0ηη)=(7.3±1.6±1.5)×10−4 with the statistical significances of 4.8σ, 3.8σ and 5.5σ, respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones systematic. No significant signal of D0→ηηη is found, and the upper limit on its decay branching fraction is set to be B(D0→ηηη)<1.3×10−4 at the 90% confidence level.
There has recently been a dramatic renewal of interest in hadron spectroscopy and charm physics. This renaissance has been driven in part by the discovery of a plethora of charmonium-like XYZ states at BESIII and B factories, and the observation of an intriguing proton-antiproton threshold enhancement and the possibly related X(1835) meson state at BESIII, as well as the threshold measurements of charm mesons and charm baryons.
We present a detailed survey of the important topics in tau-charm physics and hadron physics that can be further explored at BESIII during the remaining operation period of BEPCII. This survey will help in the optimization of the data-taking plan over the coming years, and provides physics motivation for the possible upgrade of BEPCII to higher luminosity.
We measure the Born cross sections of the process 𝑒+𝑒−→𝐾+𝐾−𝐾+𝐾− at center-of-mass (c.m.) energies, √𝑠, between 2.100 and 3.080 GeV. The data were collected using the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. An enhancement at √𝑠=2.232 GeV is observed, very close to the 𝑒+𝑒−→Λ¯Λ production threshold. A similar enhancement at the same c.m. energy is observed in the 𝑒+𝑒−→𝜙𝐾+𝐾− cross section. The energy dependence of the 𝐾+𝐾−𝐾+𝐾− and 𝜙𝐾+𝐾− cross sections differs significantly from that of 𝑒+𝑒−→𝜙𝜋+𝜋−.
Using 𝑒+𝑒−→Λ+𝑐¯Λ−𝑐 production from a 567 pb−1 data sample collected by BESIII at 4.6 GeV, a full angular analysis is carried out simultaneously on the four decay modes of Λ+𝑐→𝑝𝐾0𝑆, Λ𝜋+, Σ+𝜋0, and Σ0𝜋+. For the first time, the Λ+𝑐 transverse polarization is studied in unpolarized 𝑒+𝑒− collisions, where a nonzero effect is observed with a statistical significance of 2.1𝜎. The decay asymmetry parameters of the Λ+𝑐 weak hadronic decays into 𝑝𝐾0𝑆, Λ𝜋+, Σ+𝜋0 and Σ0𝜋+ are measured to be 0.18±0.43(stat)±0.14(syst), −0.80±0.11(stat)±0.02(syst), −0.57±0.10(stat)±0.07(syst), and −0.73±0.17(stat)±0.07(syst), respectively. In comparison with previous results, the measurements for the Λ𝜋+ and Σ+𝜋0 modes are consistent but with improved precision, while the parameters for the 𝑝𝐾0𝑆 and Σ0𝜋+ modes are measured for the first time.
Using a data sample of 448.1×106 𝜓(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII, we perform search for the hadronic transition ℎ𝑐→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓 via 𝜓(3686)→𝜋0ℎ𝑐. No signals of the transition are observed, and the upper limit on the product branching fraction ℬ(𝜓(3686)→𝜋0ℎ𝑐)ℬ(ℎ𝑐→𝜋+𝜋−𝐽/𝜓) at the 90% confidence level (C.L.) is determined to be 2.0×10−6. This is the most stringent upper limit to date.
Using a sample of 4.48×108 ψ(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, we study the two-photon decays of the pseudoscalar mesons π0, η, η′, η(1405), η(1475), η(1760), and X(1835) in J/ψ radiative decays using ψ(3686)→π+π−J/ψ events. The π0, η and η′ mesons are clearly observed in the two-photon mass spectra, and the branching fractions are determined to be B(J/ψ→γπ0→3γ)=(3.57±0.12±0.16)×10−5, B(J/ψ→γη→3γ)=(4.42±0.04±0.18)×10−4, and B(J/ψ→γη′→3γ)=(1.26±0.02±0.05)×10−4, where the first errors are statistical and the second systematic. No clear signal for η(1405), η(1475), η(1760) or X(1835) is observed in the two-photon mass spectra, and upper limits at the 90% confidence level on the product branching fractions are obtained.
By analyzing 2.93 fb−1 of data taken at the ψ(3770) resonance peak with the BESIII detector, we measure the branching fractions for the hadronic decays D+ → K0S K0S K +, D+ → K0S K0Sπ+, D0 → K0S K0S and D0 → K0S K0S K0S . They are determined to be B(D+ → K0S K0S K +) = (2.54 ± 0.05stat. ± 0.12sys.) × 10−3, B(D+ → K0S K0Sπ+) = (2.70 ± 0.05stat. ± 0.12sys.) × 10−3, B(D0 → K0S K0S ) = (1.67 ± 0.11stat. ± 0.11sys.) × 10−4 and B(D0 → K0S K0S K0S ) = (7.21 ± 0.33stat. ± 0.44sys.) × 10−4, where the second one is measured for the first time and the others are measured with significantly improved precision over the previous measurements.
The decays of χc2→K+K−π0, KSK±π∓ and π+π−π0 are studied with the ψ(3686) data samples collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESIII). For the first time, the branching fractions of χc2→K∗K¯¯¯¯¯, χc2→a±2(1320)π∓/a02(1320)π0 and χc2→ρ(770)±π∓ are measured. Here K∗K¯¯¯¯¯ denotes both K∗±K∓ and K∗0K¯¯¯¯¯0+c.c., and K∗ denotes the resonances K∗(892), K∗2(1430) and K∗3(1780). The observations indicate a strong violation of the helicity selection rule in χc2 decays into vector and pseudoscalar meson pairs. The measured branching fractions of χc2→K∗(892)K¯¯¯¯¯ are more than 10 times larger than the upper limit of χc2→ρ(770)±π∓, which is so far the first direct observation of a significant U-spin symmetry breaking effect in charmonium decays.
Using data samples collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider at six center-of-mass energies between 4.008 and 4.600 GeV, we observe the processes e+e− → φφω and e+e− → φφφ. The Born cross sections are measured and the ratio of the cross sections σ(e+e− → φφω)/σ(e+e− → φφφ) is estimated to be 1.75 ± 0.22 ± 0.19 averaged over six energy points, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The results represent first measurements of these interactions.
We report the first measurement of the absolute branching fraction for Λ+c→Λμ+νμ. This measurement is based on a sample of e+e− annihilation data at a center-of-mass energy of s√=4.6 GeV collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage rings. The sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 567 pb−1. The branching fraction is determined to be B(Λ+c→Λμ+νμ)=(3.49±0.46(stat)±0.27(syst))%. In addition, we calculate the ratio B(Λ+c→Λμ+νμ)/B(Λ+c→Λe+νe) to be 0.96±0.16(stat)±0.04(syst).
Using an 𝑒+𝑒− collision data sample of 2.93 fb−1 collected at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV by the BESIII detector at BEPCII, we report the observation of 𝐷0→𝑎0(980)−𝑒+𝜈𝑒 and evidence for 𝐷+→𝑎0(980)0𝑒+𝜈𝑒 with significances of 6.4𝜎 and 2.9𝜎, respectively. The absolute branching fractions are determined to be ℬ(𝐷0→𝑎0(980)−𝑒+𝜈𝑒)×ℬ(𝑎0(980)−→𝜂𝜋−) = [1.33+0.33−0.29(stat)±0.09(syst)]×10−4 and ℬ(𝐷+→𝑎0(980)0𝑒+𝜈𝑒)×ℬ(𝑎0(980)0→𝜂𝜋0)=[1.66+0.81
−0.66(stat)±0.11(syst)]×10−4. This is the first time the 𝑎0(980) meson has been measured in a 𝐷0 semileptonic decay, which would open one more interesting page in the investigation of the nature of the puzzling 𝑎0(980) states.
The decay 𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝛾𝜙 is studied using a sample of 1.31×109 𝐽/𝜓 events collected with the BESIII detector. Two structures around 1475 MeV/𝑐2 and 1835 MeV/𝑐2 are observed in the 𝛾𝜙 invariant mass spectrum for the first time. With a fit on the 𝛾𝜙 invariant mass, which takes into account the interference between the two structures, and a simple analysis of the angular distribution, the structure around 1475 MeV/𝑐2 is found to favor an assignment as the 𝜂(1475) and the mass and width for the structure around 1835 MeV/𝑐2 are consistent with the 𝑋(1835). The statistical significances of the two structures are 13.5𝜎 and 6.3𝜎, respectively. The results indicate that both 𝜂(1475) and 𝑋(1835) contain a sizeable 𝑠¯𝑠 component.
Using a low background data sample of 9.7×105 𝐽/𝜓→𝛾𝜂′, 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− events, which are 2 orders of magnitude larger than those from the previous experiments, recorded with the BESIII detector at BEPCII, the decay dynamics of 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− are studied with both model-dependent and model-independent approaches. The contributions of 𝜔 and the 𝜌(770)−𝜔 interference are observed for the first time in the decays 𝜂′→𝛾𝜋+𝜋− in both approaches. Additionally, a contribution from the box anomaly or the 𝜌(1450) resonance is required in the model-dependent approach, while the process specific part of the decay amplitude is determined in the model-independent approach.
Measurements of cross section of e⁺e⁻ → pp¯π⁰ at center-of-mass energies between 4.008 and 4.600 GeV
(2017)
Based on e+e− annihilation data samples collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider at 13 center-of-mass energies from 4.008 to 4.600 GeV, measurements of the Born cross section of e+e− → pp¯π0 are performed. No significant resonant structure is observed in the measured energy dependence of the cross section. The upper limit on the Born cross section of e+e− → Y (4260) → pp¯π0 at the 90% C.L. is determined to be 0.01 pb. The upper limit on the ratio of the branching fractions B(Y (4260)→pp¯π0) B(Y (4260)→π+π− J/ψ) at the 90% C.L. is determined to be 0.02%.
We study the decays of J/ψ and ψ(3686) to the final states Σ(1385)0Σ¯(1385)0 and Ξ0Ξ¯0 based on a single baryon tag method using data samples of (1310.6±7.0)×106 J/ψ and (447.9±2.9)×106 ψ(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. The decays to Σ(1385)0Σ¯(1385)0 are observed for the first time. The measured branching fractions of J/ψ and ψ(3686)→Ξ0Ξ¯0 are in good agreement with, and much more precise, than the previously published results. The angular parameters for these decays are also measured for the first time. The measured angular decay parameter for J/ψ→Σ(1385)0Σ¯(1385)0, α=−0.64±0.03±0.10, is found to be negative, different to the other decay processes in this measurement. In addition, the "12\% rule" and isospin symmetry in the J/ψ and ψ(3686)→ΞΞ¯ and Σ(1385)Σ¯(1385) systems are tested.
The decays of χc2→K+K−π0, KSK±π∓ and π+π−π0 are studied with the ψ(3686) data samples collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESIII). For the first time, the branching fractions of χc2→K∗K¯¯¯¯¯, χc2→a±2(1320)π∓/a02(1320)π0 and χc2→ρ(770)±π∓ are measured. Here K∗K¯¯¯¯¯ denotes both K∗±K∓ and K∗0K¯¯¯¯¯0+c.c., and K∗ denotes the resonances K∗(892), K∗2(1430) and K∗3(1780). The observations indicate a strong violation of the helicity selection rule in χc2 decays into vector and pseudoscalar meson pairs. The measured branching fractions of χc2→K∗(892)K¯¯¯¯¯ are more than 20 times larger than that of χc2→ρ(770)±π∓, which implies the effects are largely due to U-spin symmetry breaking, rather than just isospin symmetry breaking in charmonium decays.
The decays of χc2→K+K−π0, KSK±π∓ and π+π−π0 are studied with the ψ(3686) data samples collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESIII). For the first time, the branching fractions of χc2→K∗K¯¯¯¯¯, χc2→a±2(1320)π∓/a02(1320)π0 and χc2→ρ(770)±π∓ are measured. Here K∗K¯¯¯¯¯ denotes both K∗±K∓ and K∗0K¯¯¯¯¯0+c.c., and K∗ denotes the resonances K∗(892), K∗2(1430) and K∗3(1780). The observations indicate a strong violation of the helicity selection rule in χc2 decays into vector and pseudoscalar meson pairs. The measured branching fractions of χc2→K∗(892)K¯¯¯¯¯ are more than 10 times larger than the upper limit of χc2→ρ(770)±π∓, which is so far the first direct observation of a significant U-spin symmetry breaking effect in charmonium decays.
The decays of χc2→K+K−π0, KSK±π∓ and π+π−π0 are studied with the ψ(3686) data samples collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESIII). For the first time, the branching fractions of χc2→K∗K¯¯¯¯¯, χc2→a±2(1320)π∓/a02(1320)π0 and χc2→ρ(770)±π∓ are measured. Here K∗K¯¯¯¯¯ denotes both K∗±K∓ and K∗0K¯¯¯¯¯0+c.c., and K∗ denotes the resonances K∗(892), K∗2(1430) and K∗3(1780). The observations indicate a strong violation of the helicity selection rule in χc2 decays into vector and pseudoscalar meson pairs. The measured branching fractions of χc2→K∗(892)K¯¯¯¯¯ are more than 20 times larger than that of χc2→ρ(770)±π∓, which implies the effects are largely due to U-spin symmetry breaking, rather than just isospin symmetry breaking in charmonium decays.
By analyzing the large-angle Bhabha scattering events e+e− → (γ)e+e− and diphoton events e+e− → (γ)γγ for the data sets collected at center-of-mass (c.m.) energies between 2.2324 and 4.5900 GeV (131 energy points in total) with the upgraded Beijing Spectrometer (BESIII) at the Beijing Electron-Positron Collider (BEPCII), the integrated luminosities have been measured at the different c.m. energies, individually. The results are important inputs for the R value and J/ψ resonance parameter measurements.
Measurement of the e+e−→π+π− cross section between 600 and 900 MeV using initial state radiation
(2016)
We extract the e+e− →π+π− cross section in the energy range between 600 and 900 MeV, exploiting the method of initial state radiation. A data set with an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb−1 taken at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider is used. The cross section is measured with a systematic uncertainty of 0.9%. We extract the pion form factor |Fπ|2 as well as the contribution of the measured cross section to the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to (g−2)μ. We find this value to be aππ,LO μ (600–900 MeV) = (368.2 ±2.5stat±3.3sys) ·10−10, which is between the corresponding values using the BaBar or KLOE data.
Background and Aim. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is one of the most common complications of liver cirrhosis. Antibiotics are the main treatment regimen of SBP. Traditional Chinese medicine Xuebijing injection has been used in such patients. Our study aimed to overview the efficacy of Xuebijing injection combined with antibiotics for the treatment of SBP.
Method. We searched the PubMed, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, VIP, and Wanfang databases. The search items included "Xuebijing", "peritonitis", "liver cirrhosis", and "random" to identify all relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The Cochrane risk of bias tool was used to assess the study quality. The odd ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was also calculated.
Results. A total of 9 RCTs were included. The study quality was unsatisfied. The overall (OR = 2.95, 95% CI = 1.97–4.42, p<0.00001) and complete (OR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.57–3.04, p<0.00001) responses were significantly higher in the Xuebijing injection combined with antibiotics group than the antibiotics alone group. The incidence of cirrhosis related complications, including hepatic encephalopathy and hepatorenal syndrome, was lower in the Xuebijing injection combined with antibiotics group than the antibiotics alone group. No significant heterogeneity was observed among studies.
Conclusion. Additional use of Xuebijing injection may improve the efficacy of antibiotics for the treatment of SBP in liver cirrhosis. However, due to a low level of current evidence, we did not establish any recommendation regarding the use of Xuebijing injection for the treatment of SBP.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.