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In recent econometric work, most analyses of female labour supply consider married women, whereas the results for unmarried women are provided rather as a by-product (Burtless/Greenberg, 1982, Johnson/Pencavel, 1984, Leu/Kugler, 1986, Merz, 1990,). When the particular interest is focused on unmarried women, data of the seventies or rather simple econometric models are used (Keeley et al., 1978, Hausman, 1980, Coverman/Kemp, 1987) . Often very specific populations are examined, like for example lone mothers in Blundell/Duncan/Meghir (1992), Jenkins (1992), Staat/Wagenhals (1993) or Laisney et al. (1993). Analysing the economic behaviour of unmarried women, one is confronted with the problem that the term ‘unmarried’ is not clearly defined. It includes single, divorced, separated and widowed women. They live in different types of households, like one-person households or family households, where they occupy different economic positions as for example head of the household or relative of the head. The present work considers unmarried female heads of household. We assume that the dominant economic position as head of household, voluntarily or involuntarily occupied, forces these women to a similar behaviour independent from their family status. Thus they are taken together in the analysis from the different family statuses: single, divorced, separated and widowed. Being unmarried often is regarded as a temporary state, voluntarily or involuntarily, for example in the case of young women before marriage or in the case of divorced women after their separation. Nevertheless the demographic development shows the increased importance of unmarried women in the population during the last decades. In the USA the portion of female headed households raised from 21,1% in 1970 to 26,2% in 1980 and 29,0% in 1992 (Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1993. Own calculations). In the FRG, female headed households constitute 26,4% of total households in 1970, 27,4% in 1980 and 30,1% in 1992 (Stat.Bundesamt, FS 1, Reihe 3, 1970, 1980, 1992). Therefore it seems an interesting topic to analyse the labour supply behaviour of unmarried female heads. Especially the question whether the labour supply of unmarried women resembles rather that of married women or of prime-age males is of particular interest. Another purpose of this analysis is to apply modern econometric panel data models with special emphasis on the problem of unbalanced panel data. Most panel data analyses are carried out using balanced panel data, which is no problem if the selection process could be ignored and if enough cases are available to guarantee efficient estimation. Especially the last point was crucial for the present analysis of unmarried females. In the available panel data sets the unmarried female heads constitute only a rather small population. Therefore the estimation techniques were modified to take missing observations of the individuals into account. The paper is organized as follows: In section 2 the underlying theoretical model of intertemporal labour supply under uncertainty is shortly presented. Section 3 deals with the econometric specification and estimation techniques where the use of unbalanced panel data is considered. Section 4 contains the data description with a particular look on the unbalancedness of the samples. In the last section 5 the empirical results are presented. We compare the estimated parameters for the unmarried women between the USA and the FRG and also analyse the differences between unmarried and married women. Moreover a comparison between different samples of unmarried women is provided.
This paper provides an empirical assessment of hypotheses that identify causes of demand side constraints of individual labour supply. In a comparative study for the USA and the FRG we focus on analysing the effect of productivity gaps (industry wage growth beyond productivity growth), industry investment intensity and regional labour market conditions on individual employment probabilities. Furthermore, we investigate whether demand side constraints of labour supply can be caused by a spill over from commodity markets. Efficiency wage theory and the theory of inter-industry wage differentials are utilised to derive identifying restrictions that are applicable to the labour supply models for both countries. The econometric contribution of the paper is the derivation and application of a two step estimation method for the class of simultaneous random effects double hurdle models, of which the labour supply model employed in this paper is a special case. To provide the empirical basis for the comparative study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel are linked to the OECD’s International Sectoral Database. JEL classification: C33, C34, J64, O57
Modelling consumer behaviour in a profile design using a three equation generalised Tobit model
(1997)
We propose the application of a three equation generalised Tobit to model different aspects of consumer behaviour in a full profile study design. The model takes into account that consumer behaviour can be measured by preference scores, purchase probability and purchase volume. We aim to avoid the drawbacks of traditional conjoint analysis where the latter two aspects are disregarded. Starting from a full profile design, we develop the appropriate questionnaire layout, the econometric model, the likelihood function and tests. The model is applied in a market entry study for an innovative medicament after a reform of Germany´s public health system in 1993-1994. JEL Classification: C35,M31,L65
We propose a new framework for modeling time dependence in duration processes. The ACD approach introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended so that the conditional expectation of the durations depends on an unobservable stochastic process which is modeled via a Markov chain. The Markov switching ACD model (MSACD) is a flexible tool for description of financial duration processes. The introduction of a latent information regime variable can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. In an empirical application we show that the MSACD approach is able to capture specific characteristics of inter trade durations while alternative ACD models fail. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14
In recent methodological work the well known ACD approach, originally introduced by Engle and Russell (1998), has been supplemented by the involvement of an unobservable stochastic process which accompanies the underlying process of durations via a discrete mixture of distributions. The Mixture ACD model, emanating from the specialized proposal of De Luca and Gallo (2004), has proved to be a moderate tool for description of financial duration data. The use of one and the same family of ordinary distributions has been common practice until now. Our contribution incites to use the rich parameterized comprehensive family of distributions which allows for interacting different distributional idiosyncrasies. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14
We propose a new framework for modelling the time dependence in duration processes being in force on financial markets. The pioneering ACD model introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended in a manner that the duration process will be accompanied by an unobservable stochastic process. The Discrete Mixture ACD framework provides us with a general methodology which puts the idea into practice. It is established by introducing a discrete-valued latent regime variable which can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. The empirical application demonstrates its ability to capture specific characteristics of intraday transaction durations while alternative approaches fail. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14.
In recent methodological work the well known ACD approach, originally introduced by Engle and Russell (1998), has been supplemented by the involvement of an unobservable stochastic process which accompanies the underlying process of durations via a discrete mixture of distributions. The Mixture ACD model, emanating from the specialized proposal of De Luca and Gallo (2004), has proved to be a moderate tool for description of financial duration data. The use of one and the same family of ordinary distributions has been common practice until now. Our contribution incites to use the rich parameterized comprehensive family of distributions which allows for interacting different distributional idiosyncrasies. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14.
Diese Arbeit gibt einen Überblick der Konzeption und der Evaluation der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik (AAMP) in Deutschland. Die rechtliche Grundlage der AAMP stellte von 1969 bis 1997 das Arbeitsförderungsgesetz (AFG) dar. 1998 wurde dieses durch das Sozialgesetzbuch (SGB) III abgelöst. Während das AFG noch unter Bedingungen der Vollbeschäftigung eingeführt wurde und auch eine generelle Verbesserung der Funktionsweise des Arbeitsmarktes vorsah, erfolgte im Zeitablauf eine stärkere Ausrichtung der AAMP auf die Wiedereingliederung von Problemgruppen in den Arbeitsmarkt. Das SGB III stellt die Eingliederung von Arbeitslosen in reguläre Beschäftigung in den Mittelpunkt. Obwohl das SGB III in Ansätzen eine Erfolgskontrolle der AAMP vorsieht und trotz der hohen fiskalischen Kosten (43 Mrd. DM im Jahr 2001) fehlt bisher eine umfassende Evaluation der Wirkungen der AAMP unter Berücksichtigung der Kosten. Die Arbeit stellt die grundlegenden methodischen Probleme einer aussagekräftigen Evaluation dar. Die mikroökonomische Evaluation untersucht, ob die Teilnahme an einem arbeitsmarktpolitischen Programm zu einem Erfolg im Hinblick auf individuelle Zielgrößen wie Beschäftigung oder Verdienst führt.
In this study we are concerned with the impact of vocational training on the individual’s unemployment duration in West Germany. The data basis used is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for the period from 1984 to 1994. To resolve the intriguing sample selection problem, i.e. to find an adequate control group for the group of trainees, we employ matching methods which were developed in the statistical literature. These matching methods uses as the main matching variable the individual propensity score to participate in training, which is obtained by estimating a random effects probit model. On the basis of the matched sample a discrete time hazard rate model is utilized to assess the impact of vocational training on unemployment duration. Our results indicate, that training significantly raises the transition rate of unemployed into employment in the short but not in the long run. JEL classification: C40, J20, J64
Job creation schemes (JCS) have been one important programme of active labour market policy in Germany aiming at the re-integration of hard-to-place unemployed individuals into regular employment. In ontrast to earlier evaluation studies of these programmes based on survey data, we use administrative data containing more than 11,000 participants for our analysis and hence, can take effect heterogeneity explicitly into account. We focus on effect heterogeneity caused by differences in the implementation of programmes (economic sector, types of support and implementing institutions). The results are rather discouraging and show that in general, JCS are unable to improve the re-integration chances of participants into regular employment.
This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Since previous empirical studies of these measures have been based on relatively small datasets and focussed on East Germany, this is the first study which allows to draw policy-relevant conclusions. The very informative and exhaustive dataset at hand not only justifies the application of a matching estimator but also allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional, individual and programme heterogeneity. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is two years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants.
In this paper we evaluate the employment effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Job creation schemes are a major element of active labour market policy in Germany and are targeted at long-term unemployed and other hard-to-place individuals. Access to very informative administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency justifies the application of a matching estimator and allows to account for individual (group-specific) and regional effect heterogeneity. We extend previous studies in four directions. First, we are able to evaluate the effects on regular (unsubsidised) employment. Second, we observe the outcome of participants and non-participants for nearly three years after programme start and can therefore analyse mid- and long-term effects. Third, we test the sensitivity of the results with respect to various decisions which have to be made during implementation of the matching estimator, e.g. choosing the matching algorithm or estimating the propensity score. Finally, we check if a possible occurrence of 'unobserved heterogeneity' distorts our interpretation. The overall results are rather discouraging, since the employment effects are negative or insignificant for most of the analysed groups. One notable exception are long-term unemployed individuals who benefit from participation. Hence, one policy implication is to address programmes to this problem group more tightly. JEL Classification: J68, H43, C13
This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Since previous empirical studies of these measures have been based on relatively small datasets and focussed on East Germany, this is the first study which allows to draw policy-relevant conclusions. The very informative and exhaustive dataset at hand not only justifies the application of a matching estimator but also allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional, individual and programme heterogeneity. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is two years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants. JEL Classification: H43, J64, J68, C13, C40
Previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in Germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative. However, we find that this is not true for all strata of the population. Identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency. We present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity. Our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups. Exceptions are long-term unemployed men in West and long-term unemployed women in East and West Germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates. JEL: C13 , J68 , H43
The effects of vocational training programmes on the duration of unemployment in Eastern Germany
(2005)
Vocational training programmes have been the most important active labour market policy instrument in Germany in the last years. However, the still unsatisfying situation of the labour market has raised doubt on the efficiency of these programmes. In this paper, we analyse the effects of the participation in vocational training programmes on the duration of unemployment in Eastern Germany. Based on administrative data for the time between the October 1999 and December 2002 of the Federal Employment Administration, we apply a bivariate mixed proportional hazards model. By doing so, we are able to use the information of the timing of treatment as well as observable and unobservable influences to identify the treatment effects. The results show that a participation in vocational training prolongates the unemployment duration in Eastern Germany. Furthermore, the results suggest that locking-in effects are a serious problem of vocational training programmes. JEL Classification: J64, J24, I28, J68
In dieser Studie werden die Wirkungen von Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen (ABM) in Deutschland auf die individuellen Eingliederungswahrscheinlichkeiten der Teilnehmer in reguläre Beschäftigung evaluiert. Für die Untersuchung wird ein umfangreicher und informativer Datensatz aus den Datenquellen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) verwendet, der es ermöglicht, die Wirkungen der Programme differenziert nach individuellen Unterschieden der Teilnehmer und mit Berücksichtigung der heterogenen Arbeitsmarktstruktur zu untersuchen. Der Datensatz enthält Informationen zu allen Teilnehmern in ABM, die ihre Maßnahmen im Februar 2000 begonnen haben, und zu einer Kontrollgruppe von Nichtteilnehmern, die im Januar 2000 arbeitslos waren und im Februar 2000 nicht in die Programme eingetreten sind. Mit Hilfe der Informationen der Beschäftigtenstatistik ist es hierbei erstmals möglich, den Abgang in reguläre Beschäftigung auf Grundlage administrativer Daten zu untersuchen. Der vorliegende Verbleibszeitraum reicht bis Dezember 2002. Unter Verwendung von Matching-Methoden auf dem Ansatz potenzieller Ergebnisse werden die Effekte von ABM mit regionaler Unterscheidung und für besondere Problem- und Zielgruppen des Arbeitsmarktes geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar deutliche Unterschiede in den Effekten für Subgruppen, insgesamt weisen die empirischen Befunde jedoch darauf hin, dass das Ziel der Eingliederung in reguläre ungeförderte Beschäftigung durch ABM weitgehend nicht realisiert werden konnte. JEL: C40 , C13 , J64 , H43 , J68
In dieser Studie werden die Wirkungen von Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen (ABM) in Deutschland auf die individuellen Eingliederungswahrscheinlichkeiten der Teilnehmer in reguläre Beschäftigung evaluiert. Für die Untersuchung wird ein umfangreicher und informativer Datensatz aus den Datenquellen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) verwendet, der es ermöglicht, die Wirkungen der Programme differenziert nach individuellen Unterschieden der Teilnehmer und mit Berücksichtigung der heterogenen Arbeitsmarktstruktur zu untersuchen. Der Datensatz enthält Informationen zu allen Teilnehmern in ABM, die ihre Maßnahmen im Februar 2000 begonnen haben, und zu einer Kontrollgruppe von Nichtteilnehmern, die im Januar 2000 arbeitslos waren und im Februar 2000 nicht in die Programme eingetreten sind. Mit Hilfe der Informationen der Beschäftigtenstatistik ist es hierbei erstmals möglich, den Abgang in reguläre Beschäftigung auf Grundlage administrativer Daten zu untersuchen. Der vorliegende Verbleibszeitraum reicht bis Dezember 2002. Unter Verwendung von Matching-Methoden auf dem Ansatz potenzieller Ergebnisse werden die Effekte von ABM mit regionaler Unterscheidung und für besondere Problem- und Zielgruppen des Arbeitsmarktes geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar deutliche Unterschiede in den Effekten für Subgruppen, insgesamt weisen die empirischen Befunde jedoch darauf hin, dass das Ziel der Eingliederung in reguläre ungeförderte Beschäftigung durch ABM weitgehend nicht realisiert werden konnte. JEL: C40 , C13 , J64 , H43 , J68
This study analyses the effects of public sector sponsored vocational training (PSVT) on individuals’ unemployment duration in West Germany for the period from 1985 to 1993. The data is taken from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). To resolve the intriguing sample selection problem, i.e. to find an adequate control group for the group of trainees, we employ matching methods. These matching methods use the individual propensity to participate in training, which is obtained by estimating a panel probit model as the main matching variable. On the basis of the matched sample a discrete time hazard rate model is utilized to assess the effects of training participation on unemployment duration. Our results indicate that a significant positive effect on reemployment chances due to PSVT can only be expected for courses with a duration of no longer than six months. No significant positive effects on post-training reemployment chances where found for courses lasting longer than six months. In fact these PSVT courses are significantly less effective at increasing reemployment chances than those lasting no longer than three months. JEL classification: C40, J20, J64
We estimate a semiparametric single-risk discrete-time duration model to assess the effect of vocational training on the duration of unemployment spells. The data basis used in this study is the German Socio-Economic-Panel (GSOEP) for West Germany for the period from 1986 to 1994. To take into account a possible selection bias actual participation in vocational training is instrumented using estimates of a randomeffects probit model for the participation in qualification measures. Our main results show that training does have a significant short term effect of reducing unemployment duration but that this effect does not persist in the long run. JEL classifications: C41, J20, J64
This paper is intended as a short survey of the most relevant methods for grouped transition data. The fundamentals of duration analysis are discussed in a continuous time framework, whereas the treatment of methods for discrete durations is limited to the peculiarity of these models. In addition, some recent empirical applications of the methods are discussed.
This paper provides a review of empirical evidence relating to the impact of training on employment performance. Since a central issue in estimating training effects is the sample selection problem a short theoretical discussion of different evaluation strategies is given. The empirical overview primarily focuses on non-experimental evidence for Germany. In addition selected studies for other countries and experimental investigations are discussed.
Wir verwenden eine neue, auf der Burr-Verteilung basierende Spezifikation aus der Familie der Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) Modelle zur ökonometrischen Analyse der Transaktionsintensitäten während der Börseneinführung (IPO) der Deutsche Telekom Aktie. In diesem Fallbeispiel wird die Leistungsfähigkeit des neu entwickelten Burr-ACD-Modells mit den Standardmodellen von Engle und Russell verglichen, die im Burr-ACD Modell als Spezialfälle enthalten sind. Wir diskutieren außerdem alternative Möglichkeiten, Intra- Tagessaisonalitäten der Handelsintensität in ACD Modellen zu berücksichtigen.
Innovations are a key factor to ensure the competitiveness of establishments as well as to enhance the growth and wealth of nations. But more than any other economic activity, decisions about innovations are plagued by failures of the market mechanism. As a response, public instruments have been implemented to stimulate private innovation activities. The effectiveness of these measures, however, is ambiguous and calls for an empirical evaluation. In this paper we make use of the IAB Establishment Panel and apply various microeconometric methods to estimate the effect of public measures on innovation activities of German establishments. We find that neglecting sample selection due to observable as well as to unobservable characteristics leads to an overestimation of the treatment effect and that there are considerable differences with regard to size class and betweenWest and East German establishments.