Refine
Document Type
- Article (2)
- Working Paper (2)
Language
- English (4)
Has Fulltext
- yes (4)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (4)
Keywords
- asset pricing (1)
- consumption (1)
- cross-section of stock return (1)
- utility functions (1)
Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Background: Different parameters have been determined for prediction of treatment outcome in hepatitis c virus genotype 1 infected patients undergoing pegylated interferon, ribavirin combination therapy. Results on the importance of vitamin D levels are conflicting. In the present study, a comprehensive analysis of vitamin D levels before and during therapy together with single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in vitamin D metabolism in the context of other known treatment predictors has been performed.
Methods: In a well characterized prospective cohort of 398 genotype 1 infected patients treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin for 24–72 weeks (INDIV-2 study) 25-OH-vitamin D levels and different single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed together with known biochemical parameters for a correlation with virologic treatment outcome.
Results: Fluctuations of more than 5 (10) ng/ml in 25-OH-vitamin D-levels have been observed in 66 (39) % of patients during the course of antiviral therapy and neither pretreatment nor under treatment 25-OH-vitamin D-levels were associated with treatment outcome. The DHCR7-TT-polymorphism within the 7-dehydrocholesterol-reductase showed a significant association (P = 0.031) to sustained viral response in univariate analysis. Among numerous further parameters analyzed we found that age (OR = 1.028, CI = 1.002–1.056, P = 0.035), cholesterol (OR = 0.983, CI = 0.975–0.991, P<0.001), ferritin (OR = 1.002, CI = 1.000–1.004, P = 0.033), gGT (OR = 1.467, CI = 1.073–2.006, P = 0.016) and IL28B-genotype (OR = 2.442, CI = 1.271–4.695, P = 0.007) constituted the strongest predictors of treatment response.
Conclusions: While 25-OH-vitamin D-levels levels show considerable variations during the long-lasting course of antiviral therapy they do not show any significant association to treatment outcome in genotype 1 infected patients.
Standard applications of the consumption-based asset pricing model assume that goods and services within the nondurable consumption bundle are substitutes. We estimate substitution elasticities between different consumption bundles and show that households cannot substitute energy consumption by consumption of other nondurables. As a consequence, energy consumption affects the pricing function as a separate factor. Variation in energy consumption betas explains a large part of the premia related to value, investment, and operating profitability. For example, value stocks are typically more energy-intensive than growth stocks and thus riskier, since they suffer more from the oil supply shocks that also affect households.
Prognostic assessment of patients with liver cirrhosis allocated for implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a challenging task in clinical practice. The aim of our study was to assess the prognostic value of the CLIF‐C AD (Acute Decompensation) score in patients with TIPS implantation. Transplant‐free survival (TFS) and 3‐month mortality were reviewed in 880 patients who received de novo TIPS implantation for the treatment of cirrhotic portal hypertension. The prognostic value of the CLIF‐C AD score was compared with the Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child‐Pugh score, and albumin‐bilirubin (ALBI) score using Harrell’s C concordance index. The median TFS after TIPS implantation was 40.0 (34.6‐45.4) months. The CLIF‐C AD score (c = 0.635 [0.609‐0.661]) was superior in the prediction of TFS in comparison to MELD score (c = 0.597 [0.570‐0.623], P = 0.006), Child‐Pugh score (c = 0.579 [0.552‐0.606], P < 0.001), and ALBI score (c = 0.573 [0.545‐0.600], P < 0.001). However, the CLIF‐C AD score did not perform significantly better than the MELD‐Na score (c = 0.626 [0.599‐0.653], P = 0.442). There were no profound differences in the scores’ ranking with respect to indication for TIPS implantation, stent type, or underlying liver disease. Subgroup analyses revealed that a CLIF‐C AD score >45 was a predictor of 3‐month mortality in the supposed low‐risk group of patients with a MELD score ≤12 (14.7% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The CLIF‐C AD score is suitable for prognostic assessment of patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension receiving TIPS implantation. In the prediction of TFS, the CLIF‐C AD score is superior to MELD score, Child‐Pugh score, and ALBI score but not the MELD‐Na score.