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Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
Activation of hypoxia inducible factor 1 is a general phenomenon in infections with human pathogens
(2010)
Background: Hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1 is the key transcriptional factor involved in the adaptation process of cells and organisms to hypoxia. Recent findings suggest that HIF-1 plays also a crucial role in inflammatory and infectious diseases. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using patient skin biopsies, cell culture and murine infection models, HIF-1 activation was determined by immunohistochemistry, immunoblotting and reporter gene assays and was linked to cellular oxygen consumption. The course of a S. aureus peritonitis was determined upon pharmacological HIF-1 inhibition. Activation of HIF-1 was detectable (i) in all ex vivo in biopsies of patients suffering from skin infections, (ii) in vitro using cell culture infection models and (iii) in vivo using murine intravenous and peritoneal S. aureus infection models. HIF-1 activation by human pathogens was induced by oxygen-dependent mechanisms. Small colony variants (SCVs) of S. aureus known to cause chronic infections did not result in cellular hypoxia nor in HIF-1 activation. Pharmaceutical inhibition of HIF-1 activation resulted in increased survival rates of mice suffering from a S. aureus peritonitis. Conclusions/Significance: Activation of HIF-1 is a general phenomenon in infections with human pathogenic bacteria, viruses, fungi and protozoa. HIF-1-regulated pathways might be an attractive target to modulate the course of life-threatening infections.
Introduction: Acute lung injury (ALI) is an inflammatory disorder of pulmonary or extrapulmonary origin. We have previously demonstrated that netrin-1 dampens murine ALI, and in an attempt to advance this finding into future clinical practice we evaluated whether netrin-1 would reduce alveolar inflammation during porcine ALI. Methods: This was a controlled in vivo experimental study in pigs. We induced ALI through lipoploysaccharide (LPS) infusion (50 micro g/kg) for 2 hours. Following this, we exposed animals to either vehicle, intravenous netrin-1 (netrin-1 i.v.) or inhaled netrin-1 (netrin-1 inh.). Serum samples and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were obtained to determine levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin (IL)-1beta, interleukin-6 and interleukin-8 at baseline and 6 hours following treatment. Myeloperoxidase activity (MPO) and protein levels were determined in the BAL, and tissue samples were obtained for histological evaluation. Finally, animals were scanned with spiral CT. Results: Following LPS infusion, animals developed acute pulmonary injury. Serum levels of TNF-alpha and IL-6 were significantly reduced in the netrin-1 i.v. group. BAL demonstrated significantly reduced cytokine levels 6 hours post-netrin-1 treatment (TNF-alpha: vehicle 633 ± 172 pg/ml, netrin-1 i.v. 84 ± 5 pg/ml, netrin-1 inh. 168 ± 74 pg/ml; both P < 0.05). MPO activity and protein content were significantly reduced in BAL samples from netrin-1-treated animals. Histological sections confirmed reduced inflammatory changes in the netrin-1-treated animals. Computed tomography corroborated reduced pulmonary damage in both netrin-1-treated groups. Conclusions: We conclude that treatment with the endogenous anti-inflammatory protein netrin-1 reduces pulmonary inflammation during the initial stages of ALI and should be pursued as a future therapeutic option.
Different response of Ptch mutant and Ptch wildtype Rhabdomyosarcoma toward SMO and PI3K inhibitors
(2018)
Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is the most common pediatric soft tissue sarcoma with poor prognosis. RMS frequently show Hedgehog (HH) pathway activity, which is predominantly seen in the embryonal subtype (ERMS). They also show activation of Phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate 3-kinase (PI3K) signaling. Here we compared the therapeutic effectiveness and the impact on HH target gene expression of Smoothened (SMO) antagonists with those of the PI3K inhibitor pictilisib in ERMS with and without mutations in the HH receptor Patched1 (PTCH). Our data demonstrate that growth of ERMS showing canonical Hh signaling activity due to Ptch germline mutations is efficiently reduced by SMO antagonists. This goes along with strong downregulation of the Hh target Gli1. Likewise Ptch mutant tumors are highly responsive toward the PI3K inhibitor pictilisib, which involves modulation of AKT and caspase activity. Pictilisib also modulates Hh target gene expression, which, however, is rather not correlated with its antitumoral effects. In contrast, sporadic ERMS, which usually express HH target genes without having PTCH mutation, apparently lack canonical HH signaling activity. Thus, stimulation by Sonic HE (SHH) or SAG (Smoothened agonist) or inhibition by SMO antagonists do not modulate HH target gene expression. In addition, SMO antagonists do not provoke efficient anticancer effects and rather exert off-target effects. In contrast, pictilisib and other PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors potently inhibit cellular growth. They also efficiently inhibit HH target gene expression. However, of whether this is correlated with their antitumoral effects it is not clear. Together, these data suggest that PI3K inhibitors are a good and reliable therapeutic option for all ERMS, whereas SMO inhibitors might only be beneficial for ERMS driven by PTCH mutations.
Introduction: Organ dysfunction or failure after the first days of ICU treatment and subsequent mortality with respect to the type of intensive care unit (ICU) admission is poorly elucidated. Therefore we analyzed the association of ICU mortality and admission for medical (M), scheduled surgery (ScS) or unscheduled surgery (US) patients mirrored by the occurrence of organ dysfunction/failure (OD/OF) after the first 72h of ICU stay.
Methods: For this retrospective cohort study (23,795 patients; DIVI registry; German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care Medicine (DIVI)) organ dysfunction or failure were derived from the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (excluding the Glasgow Coma Scale). SOFA scores were collected on admission to ICU and 72h later. For patients with a length of stay of at least five days, a multivariate analysis was performed for individual OD/OF on day three.
Results: M patients had the lowest prevalence of cardiovascular failure (M 31%; ScS 35%; US 38%), and the highest prevalence of respiratory (M 24%; ScS 13%; US 17%) and renal failure (M 10%; ScS 6%; US 7%). Risk of death was highest for M- and ScS-patients in those with respiratory failure (OR; M 2.4; ScS 2.4; US 1.4) and for surgical patients with renal failure (OR; M 1.7; ScS 2.7; US 2.4).
Conclusion: The dynamic evolution of OD/OF within 72h after ICU admission and mortality differed between patients depending on their types of admission. This has to be considered to exclude a systematic bias during multi-center trials.
BACKGROUND: Recent findings support the idea that interleukin (IL)-22 serum levels are related to disease severity in end-stage liver disease. Existing scoring systems--Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation (SOFT) and Pre-allocation-SOFT (P-SOFT)--are well-established in appraising survival rates with or without liver transplantation. We tested the hypothesis that IL-22 serum levels at transplantation date correlate with survival and potentially have value as a predictive factor for survival.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: MELD, SOFT, and P-SOFT scores were calculated to estimate post-transplantation survival. Serum levels of IL-22, IL-6, IL-10, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) were collected prior to transplantation in 41 patients. Outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years after transplantation.
RESULTS: IL-22 significantly correlated with MELD, P-SOFT, and SOFT scores (Rs 0.35, 0.63, 0.56 respectively, p<0.05) and with the discrimination in post-transplantation survival. IL-6 showed a heterogeneous pattern (Rs 0.40, 0.63, 0.57, respectively, p<0.05); CRP and PCT did not correlate. We therefore added IL-22 serum values to existing scoring systems in a generalized linear model (GLM), resulting in a significantly improved outcome prediction in 58% of the cases for both the P-SOFT (p<0.01) and SOFT scores (p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to address the concept that IL-22 serum values at the time of transplantation provide valuable information about survival rates following orthotopic liver transplantation.