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One of the unresolved questions in studies on population dynamics of forest Lepidoptera is why some populations at times reach outbreak densities, whereas others never do. Resolving this question is especially challenging if populations of the same species in different areas or of closely-related species in the same area are considered. The present study focused on three closely-related geometrid moth species, autumnal Epirrita autumnata, winter Operophtera brumata and northern winter moths Operophtera fagata, in southern Finland. There, winter and northern winter moth populations can reach outbreak densities, whereas autumnal moth densities stay relatively low. We tested the hypothesis that a lower vulnerability to pupal predation may explain the observed differences in population dynamics. The results obtained do not support this hypothesis because pupal predation probabilities were not significantly different between the two genera within or without the Operophtera outbreak area or in years with or without a current Operophtera outbreak. Overall, pupal predation was even higher in winter and northern winter moths than in autumnal moths. Differences in larval predation and parasitism, as well as in the reproductive capacities of the species, might be other candidates.
In the literature, various environmental factors are described as being capable of influencing the reproductive output of insect females irrespective of their body size. Still, female body size or weight is widely used as a proxy for fecundity. In the present study, a seven-year data set on the autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata (Borkhausen) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was used to analyze whether the body weight-fecundity relationship in this capital breeding, cyclic forest defoliating lepidopteran is constant across years. Ambient temperature conditions and density of conspecifics during larval development, the length of the pupal period, as well as moth densities in the parent generation were examined as factors capable of modifying the body weight-fecundity relationship. While the regression slope of potential fecundity (total egg numbers per female) on pupal mass was constant across years, the mean total egg number per given body weight (the regression intercept) was significantly different between years. This residual variance in egg numbers after controlling for the effect of pupal mass was best explained by the pooled geometrid density (autumnal and winter moths) in the parent generation. The total egg number per given body weight decreased with increasing density of geometrid moths in the parent generation. Thus, maternal density effects on offspring fecundity were found in this system. Their rather weak nature suggests, however, that this maternal effect alone does not have the potential of causing cyclic population dynamics in the autumnal moth.
Ecological systems contain a huge amount of quantitative variation between and within species and locations, which makes it difficult to obtain unambiguous verification of theoretical predictions. Ordinary experiments consider just a few explanatory factors and are prone to providing oversimplified answers because they ignore the complexity of the factors that underlie variation. We used multi-objective optimization (MO) for a mechanistic analysis of the potential ecological and evolutionary causes and consequences of variation in the life-history traits of a species of moth. Optimal life-history solutions were sought for environmental conditions where different life stages of the moth were subject to predation and other known fitness-reducing factors in a manner that was dependent on the duration of these life stages and on variable mortality rates. We found that multi-objective optimal solutions to these conditions that the moths regularly experience explained most of the life-history variation within this species. Our results demonstrate that variation can have a causal interpretation even for organisms under steady conditions. The results suggest that weather and species interactions can act as underlying causes of variation, and MO acts as a corresponding adaptive mechanism that maintains variation in the traits of organisms.
Among cyclic populations of herbivores, inter-specific temporal synchrony has been attributed to both climatic factors and trophic interactions. In northern Europe, winter and autumnal moths undergo regular 9–11 year population cycles. The winter moth cycle has typically been phase-locked with that of the autumnal moth, but with a 1–3- year phase lag. We examined potential effects of natural enemies on this phase lag using field experiments and observational data. We found that larval parasitism was significantly higher in autumnal than in winter moths. Conversely, pupal predation by generalist invertebrates was clearly greater in winter than in autumnal moths. The difference in parasitism rates may contribute to the earlier collapse of the autumnal moth cycle. In addition, the phase lag may be strengthened by higher pupal mortality in winter moths in the early increase phase of the cycles. As a consequence, we put forward a hypothesis on reversed effects of natural enemies, providing a potential explanation for phase-lagged population cycles of these moth species.