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Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.
Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.
Seed dispersal is hard to measure, and there is still a lack of knowledge about dispersal-related traits of plant species. Therefore, we developed D3, the Dispersal and Diaspore Database (available at
www.seed-dispersal.info), which aims at simplifying ecological and evolutionary analyses by providing and integrating various items related to seed dispersal: empirical studies, functional traits, image analyses and ranking indices (quantifying the adaptation to dispersal modes).
Currently, the database includes data for more than 5000 taxa and 33 items as well as digital images of diaspores (i.e. the dispersal units), seeds, fruits and infructescences. The included items cover common traits like diaspore mass, size, shape, terminal velocity and seed number per diaspore. Furthermore, we present newly or further developed items like ecomorphological categorizations of the diaspore and fruit as well as information from literature on prevailing dispersal modes. Finally, we introduce several items which are not covered in other databases yet: surface structure and form of the diaspore, the exposure of the diaspores in the infructescence and dispersal rankings. Dispersal rankings allow estimations of how well certain species are adapted to a specific dispersal mode in comparison to a larger species set. They are calculated as the percentile rank of an indicator of species’ dispersal potential in relation to a larger species set.
Especially for the new and further developed items we outline the basic concepts in detail, describe the measurement and categorization methods and show how to interpret and integrate these data for single species as well as for larger species sets. Thereby, we calculate baseline statistics of seed dispersal of the Central European flora. We found that diaspores of 72% of the taxa show specializations related to long-distance dispersal, i.e. most often elongated appendages or nutrient-rich tissues. Diaspore masses, sizes and terminal velocities vary over several orders of magnitude and can be approximated by lognormal distributions.