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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Background and Aims: In patients with Rat sarcoma proto-oncogene (RAS) wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies have been established in first- and further therapy lines. Due to limited treatment options upon disease progression, anti-EGFR re-exposure is increasingly employed in real-world oncology. The aim of this study was to assess clinical implementation and utility of anti-EGFR retreatment strategies in real-world mCRC patients. Methods: In this monocentric retrospective study, we included 524 patients with CRC and identified patients who received an anti-EGFR-based treatment as well as anti-EGFR rechallenge (progression on first-line anti-EGFR therapy) or reintroduction (discontinuation due to intolerance/toxicity/other). Results: In total, 143 patients received an anti-EGFR-based first- or second-line treatment, showing a similar overall survival (OS) compared to the non-anti-EGFR treatment group (38.3 vs. 39.6 months, p = 0.88). Thirty-three patients met the inclusion criteria for anti-EGFR re-exposure and were either assigned to rechallenge (n = 21) or reintroduction (n = 12) subgroups. The median FU after re-exposure was 45.8 months. Cetuximab and Panitumumab were used in 21 and 12 patients, respectively, and the main chemotherapy at re-exposure was FOLFIRI in 39.4%. Anti-EGFR re-exposure was associated with a distinct trend towards a better outcome (median OS 56.0 vs. 35.4 months, p = 0.06). In a subgroup comparison, reintroduction was associated with a higher OS and PFS in trend compared to the rechallenge (mOS 66 vs. 52.4, n.s., mPFS 7.33 vs. 3.68 months, n.s.). Conclusions: This retrospective study provides real-world evidence underscoring that anti-EGFR re-exposure strategies might benefit patients independently of the reason for prior discontinuation.
Background: We analyzed whether co-occurring mutations influence the outcome of systemic therapy in ALK-rearranged non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
Patients and methods: ALK-rearranged stage IIIB/IV NSCLC patients were analyzed with next-generation sequencing and fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses on a centralized diagnostic platform. Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were determined in the total cohort and in treatment-related sub-cohorts. Cox regression analyses were carried out to exclude confounders.
Results: Among 216 patients with ALK-rearranged NSCLC, the frequency of pathogenic TP53 mutations was 23.8%, while other co-occurring mutations were rare events. In ALK/TP53 co-mutated patients, median PFS and OS were significantly lower compared with TP53 wildtype patients [PFS 3.9 months (95% CI: 2.4–5.6) versus 10.3 months (95% CI: 8.6–12.0), P < 0.001; OS 15.0 months (95% CI: 5.0–24.9) versus 50.0 months (95% CI: 22.9–77.1), P = 0.002]. This difference was confirmed in all treatment-related subgroups including chemotherapy only [PFS first-line chemotherapy 2.6 months (95% CI: 1.3–4.1) versus 6.2 months (95% CI: 1.8–10.5), P = 0.021; OS 2.0 months (95% CI: 0.0–4.6) versus 9.0 months (95% CI: 6.1–11.9), P = 0.035], crizotinib plus chemotherapy [PFS crizotinib 5.0 months (95% CI: 2.9–7.2) versus 14.0 months (95% CI: 8.0–20.1), P < 0.001; OS 17.0 months (95% CI: 6.7–27.3) versus not reached, P = 0.049] and crizotinib followed by next-generation ALK-inhibitor [PFS next-generation inhibitor 5.4 months (95% CI: 0.1–10.7) versus 9.9 months (95% CI: 6.4–13.5), P = 0.039; OS 7.0 months versus 50.0 months (95% CI: not reached), P = 0.001).
Conclusions: In ALK-rearranged NSCLC co-occurring TP53 mutations predict an unfavorable outcome of systemic therapy. Our observations encourage future research to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms and to improve treatment outcome of the ALK/TP53 co-mutated subgroup.
Background: While recent data show that crizotinib is highly effective in patients with ROS1 rearrangement, few data is available about the prognostic impact, the predictive value for different treatments, and the genetic heterogeneity of ROS1- positive patients.
Patients and methods: 1137 patients with adenocarcinoma of the lung were analyzed regarding their ROS1 status. In positive cases, next-generation sequencing (NGS) was performed. Clinical characteristics, treatments and outcome of these patients were assessed. Overall survival (OS) was compared with genetically defined subgroups of ROS1-negative patients.
Results: 19 patients of 1035 evaluable (1.8%) had ROS1-rearrangement. The median OS has not been reached. Stage IV patients with ROS1-rearrangement had the best OS of all subgroups (36.7 months, p < 0.001). 9 of 14 (64.2%) patients had at least one response to chemotherapy. Estimated mean OS for patients receiving chemotherapy and crizotinib was 5.3 years. Ten patients with ROS1-rearrangement (52.6%) harbored additional aberrations.
Conclusion: ROS1-rearangement is not only a predictive marker for response to crizotinib, but also seems to be the one of the best prognostic molecular markers in NSCLC reported so far. In stage IV patients, response to chemotherapy was remarkable high and overall survival was significantly better compared to other subgroups including EGFR-mutated and ALK-fusion-positive NSCLC.
Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (auto-HSCT) provides a potentially curative treatment option for relapsed and refractory lymphomas. Obesity displays an emerging epidemic risk factor for global mortality and is associated with an increased mortality in cancer patients. To date, the impact of obesity on the outcome of lymphoma patients undergoing auto-HSCT is understudied. We conducted a retrospective single-center study assessing 119 lymphoma patients who underwent auto-HSCT. Overall survival (OS) served as the primary endpoint whereas progression free survival (PFS), cumulative incidence of non-relapse related mortality (NRM) and cumulative incidence of relapse were analyzed as secondary endpoints. Obese patients (Body mass index, BMI≥30) had significantly lower OS (45.3% vs. 77.9%; p = 0.005) and PFS (29.8% vs. 67.2%; p<0.001) compared to non-obese patients at 48 months post-transplantation. The cumulative incidence of NRM displayed no significant differences while the cumulative incidence of relapse was significantly increased in patients with BMI≥30 (66.2% vs. 21.5%; p<0.001). Patients with a BMI<25 and overweight patients (BMI 25–30; 76.1% vs. 80.9%; p = 0.585), showed no significant difference in OS, whereas patients with BMI≥30 exhibited significant lower OS when compared to either of both groups (76.1% vs. 45.3%; p = .0.021 and 80.9% vs. 45.3%; p = 0.010). Furthermore, in a multivariate analysis, obesity was identified as an independent risk factor for death (Hazard ratio 2.231; 95% CI 1.024 to 4.860; p = 0.043). Further studies are needed to evaluate the reasons for the higher relapse rate causing higher mortality in obese patients.
Chordomas are rare bone tumors with few therapeutic options. Here we show, using whole-exome and genome sequencing within a precision oncology program, that advanced chordomas (n = 11) may be characterized by genomic patterns indicative of defective homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair and alterations affecting HR-related genes, including, for example, deletions and pathogenic germline variants of BRCA2, NBN, and CHEK2. A mutational signature associated with HR deficiency was significantly enriched in 72.7% of samples and co-occurred with genomic instability. The poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor olaparib, which is preferentially toxic to HR-incompetent cells, led to prolonged clinical benefit in a patient with refractory chordoma, and whole-genome analysis at progression revealed a PARP1 p.T910A mutation predicted to disrupt the autoinhibitory PARP1 helical domain. These findings uncover a therapeutic opportunity in chordoma that warrants further exploration, and provide insight into the mechanisms underlying PARP inhibitor resistance.
Background: Disease progression and delayed neurological complications are common after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). We explored the potential of quantitative blood-brain barrier (BBB) imaging to predict disease progression and neurological outcome.
Methods: Data were collected as part of the Co-Operative Studies of Brain Injury Depolarizations (COSBID). We analyzed retrospectively, blinded and semi-automatically magnetic resonance images from 124 aSAH patients scanned at 4 time points (24–48 h, 6–8 days, 12–15 days and 6–12 months) after the initial hemorrhage. Volume of brain with apparent pathology and/or BBB dysfunction (BBBD), subarachnoid space and lateral ventricles were measured. Neurological status on admission was assessed using the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies and Rosen-Macdonald scores. Outcome at ≥6 months was assessed using the extended Glasgow outcome scale and disease course (progressive or non-progressive based on imaging-detected loss of normal brain tissue in consecutive scans). Logistic regression was used to define biomarkers that best predict outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to assess accuracy of outcome prediction models.
Findings: In the present cohort, 63% of patients had progressive and 37% non-progressive disease course. Progressive course was associated with worse outcome at ≥6 months (sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 97%). Brain volume with BBBD was significantly larger in patients with progressive course already 24–48 h after admission (2.23 (1.23–3.17) folds, median with 95%CI), and persisted at all time points. The highest probability of a BBB-disrupted voxel to become pathological was found at a distance of ≤1 cm from the brain with apparent pathology (0·284 (0·122–0·594), p < 0·001, median with 95%CI). A multivariate logistic regression model revealed power for BBBD in combination with RMS at 24-48 h in predicting outcome (ROC area under the curve = 0·829, p < 0·001).
Interpretation: We suggest that early identification of BBBD may serve as a key predictive biomarker for neurological outcome in aSAH.
Fund: Dr. Dreier was supported by grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) (DFG DR 323/5-1 and DFG DR 323/10–1), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) Center for Stroke Research Berlin 01 EO 0801 and FP7 no 602150 CENTER-TBI.
Dr. Friedman was supported by grants from Israel Science Foundation and Canada Institute for Health Research (CIHR). Dr. Friedman was supported by grants from European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007–2013; grant #602102).
This paper describes the ongoing efforts of the authors to present ancient Greek and Roman numismatic data on the public internet, with an emphasis on efforts to integrate information from multiple sources using Linked Data and Semantic Web techniques. By way of very modern metaphor, it is useful to think of coins as intentionally created packages of 'named entities'. Each coin was struck by a particular authority, often at a known site, and coins often make reference to familiar concepts such as deities, historical events, or symbols that were widely recognized in the ancient world. The institutions represented among the authors have deployed search interfaces that allow users to take advantage of this aspect of numismatic databases. The American Numismatic Society's database provides faceted search to its collection of over 550,000 objects. The Portable Antiquities Scheme (PAS) in the UK presents individual finds (and hoards) recorded throughout the country. The Römisch-Germanische Kommission and the University of Frankfurt (DBIS) are developing a prototype metaportal (INTERFACE) that accesses national databases of coin finds held in in Frankfurt, Vienna and Utrecht. Each of these resources is beginning to explore Semantic Web/Linked data approaches so that the role of numismatic standards is immediately coming to the fore. DBIS and INTERFACE are developing a numismatic ontology. At the ANS and PAS, the public database already presents RDF serializations based on Dublin Core. Together, the authors have begun to explore standardization of conceptual names on the basis of the vocabulary presented at the site http://nomisma.org . Nomisma.org is a collaborative effort to provide stable digital representations of numismatic concepts and entities. It provides URIs for such basic concepts as 'coin', 'mint', 'axis'. All of these are defined within the scope of numismatics but are already being linked to other stable resources where available. This is particularly the case for mints. For example, the URI http://nomisma.org/id/corinth is intended to represent that ancient city in its role as a minter/issuer of coins. The URI is linked via the SKOS ontology to the Pleiades Gazetteer of ancient places. This allows Nomisma to be the basis for a common representation of the concept that an object is a coin minted at Corinth. The ANS has already deployed such relationships in its public database. The work of all these projects is very much in progress so that this paper hopes to generate discussion on how multiple large projects can move forward in their own work while encouraging sufficient commonality to support large scale research questions undertaken by diverse audiences.
The genomes of many prokaryotes contain substantial fractions of gene pairs with overlapping stop and start codons (ATGA or TGATG). A potential benefit of overlapping gene pairs is translational coupling. In 720 genomes of archaea and bacteria representing all major phyla, we identify substantial, albeit highly variable, fractions of co-directed overlapping gene pairs. Various patterns are observed for the utilization of the SD motif for de novo initiation at upstream genes versus reinitiation at overlapping gene pairs. We experimentally test the predicted coupling in 9 gene pairs from the archaeon Haloferax volcanii and 5 gene pairs from the bacterium Escherichia coli. In 13 of 14 cases, translation of both genes is strictly coupled. Mutational analysis of SD motifs located upstream of the downstream genes indicate that the contribution of the SD to translational coupling widely varies from gene to gene. The nearly universal, abundant occurrence of overlapping gene pairs suggests that tight translational coupling is widespread in archaea and bacteria.
Background: Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic Purpura (aTTP) is a life-threatening ultra-orphan disease with a reported annual incidence between 1.5 and 6.0 cases per million in Europe and mainly affecting otherwise young and healthy adults aged 40 years on average. The goal of this study was to assess the incidence of aTTP in Germany.
Methods: A systematic review was performed to determine the published evidence on the aTTP epidemiology in Germany. To obtain additional evidence on the proportion of aTTP cases within the national Thrombotic Microangiopathy (TMA) population a hospital-level study was performed, using a retrospective data collection approach. Diagnosis of aTTP was confirmed if ADAMTS13 level were < 10% and/or the medical records explicitly mentioned aTTP diagnosis. The aggregated hospital data were then projected to the national level using logistic regression techniques.
Results: The systematic literature search did not provide incidence estimates of aTTP in Germany. Eight centers (≈27% of the top 30 TMA hospitals) delivered data according to a predefined data collection form. On average (year 2014–2016) a total number of 172 aTTP episodes per year was projected (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 132–212). The majority were newly diagnosed aTTP cases (n = 121; 95%CI: 105–129), and 51 were recurrent aTTP cases (95%CI: 27–84). The average annual projected incidence (year 2014–2016) of aTTP episodes was 2.10 per million inhabitants in Germany (95%CI: 1.60–2.58).
Conclusions: The determined annual incidence of newly diagnosed aTTP cases and the overall annual incidence of aTTP episodes in Germany confirm the ultra-orphan character of aTTP. An external validation against international registries (France, UK and USA) shows that our findings are quite comparable with those international incidence rates.