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Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Background: Clinical practice guidelines for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have been recently revised and implemented for well-established response criteria to standard first-line ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy at 12 months after treatment initiation for the early identification of high-risk patients with inadequate treatment responses who may require treatment modification. However, there are only very limited data concerning the real-world clinical management of patients with PBC in Germany. Objective: The aim of this retrospective multicenter study was to evaluate response rates to standard first-line UDCA therapy and subsequent Second-line treatment regimens in a large cohort of well-characterized patients with PBC from 10 independent hepatological referral centers in Germany prior to the introduction of obeticholic acid as a licensed second-line treatment option. Methods: Diagnostic confirmation of PBC, standard first-line UDCA treatment regimens and response rates at 12 months according to Paris-I, Paris-II, and Barcelona criteria, the follow-up cut-off alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≤ 1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and the normalization of bilirubin (bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN) were retrospectively examined between June 1986 and March 2017. The management and hitherto applied second-line treatment regimens in patients with an inadequate response to UDCA and subsequent response rates at 12 months were also evaluated. Results: Overall, 480 PBC patients were included in this study. The median UDCA dosage was 13.2 mg UDCA/kg bodyweight (BW)/d. Adequate UDCA treatment response rates according to Paris-I, Paris-II, and Barcelona criteria were observed in 91, 71.3, and 61.3% of patients, respectively. In 83.8% of patients, ALP ≤ 1.67 × ULN were achieved. A total of 116 patients (24.2%) showed an inadequate response to UDCA according to at least one criterion. The diverse second-line treatment regimens applied led to significantly higher response rates according to Paris-II (35 vs. 60%, p = 0.005), Barcelona (13 vs. 34%, p = 0.0005), ALP ≤ 1.67 × ULN and bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN (52.1 vs. 75%, p = 0.002). The addition of bezafibrates appeared to induce the strongest beneficial effect in this cohort (Paris II: 24 vs. 74%, p = 0.004; Barcelona: 50 vs. 84%, p = 0.046; ALP < 1.67 × ULN and bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN: 33 vs. 86%, p = 0.001). Conclusion: Our large retrospective multicenter study confirms high response rates following UDCA first-line standard treatment in patients with PBC and highlights the need for close monitoring and early treatment modification in high-risk patients with an insufficient response to UDCA since early treatment modification significantly increases subsequent response rates of these patients.