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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Cross sections for neutron-induced reactions of short-lived nuclei are essential for nuclear astrophysics since these reactions in the stars are responsible for the production of most heavy elements in the universe. These reactions are also key in applied domains like energy production and medicine. Nevertheless, neutron-induced cross-section measurements can be extremely challenging or even impossible to perform due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. Indirect measurements through the surrogate-reaction method can help to overcome these difficulties.
The surrogate-reaction method relies on the use of an alternative reaction that will lead to the formation of the same excited nucleus as in the neutron-induced reaction of interest. The decay probabilities (for fission, neutron and gamma-ray emission) of the nucleus produced via the surrogate reaction allow one to constrain models and the prediction of the desired neutron cross sections.
We propose to perform surrogate reaction measurements in inverse kinematics at heavy-ion storage rings, in particular at the CRYRING@ESR of the GSI/FAIR facility. We present the conceptual idea of the most promising setup to measure for the first time simultaneously the fission, neutron and gamma-ray emission probabilities. The results of the first simulations considering the 238U(d,d') reaction are shown, as well as new technical developments that are being carried out towards this set-up.
Background: Accurate assessment of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic HBeAg-negative Hepatitis B is of crucial importance not only to predict the long-term clinical course, but also to evaluate antiviral therapy indication. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the utility of point shear wave elastography (pSWE) for longitudinal non-invasive fibrosis assessment in a large cohort of untreated patients with chronic HBeAg-negative hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.
Methods: 407 consecutive patients with HBeAg-negative HBV infection who underwent pSWE, transient elastography (TE) as well as laboratory fibrosis markers, including fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4), aspartate to platelet ratio index (APRI) and FibroTest, on the same day were prospectively followed up for six years. Patients were classified into one of the three groups: inactive carriers (IC; HBV-DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L); grey zone group 1 (GZ-1; HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT >40 U/L); grey zone group 2 (GZ-2; HBV-DNA >2000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L).
Results: pSWE results were significantly correlated with TE (r = 0.29, p < 0.001) and APRI (r = 0.17; p = 0.005). Median pSWE values did not differ between IC, GZ-1 and GZ-2 patients (p = 0.82, p = 0.17, p = 0.34). During six years of follow-up, median pSWE and TE values did not differ significantly over time (TE: p = 0.27; pSWE: p = 0.05).
Conclusion: Our data indicate that pSWE could be useful for non-invasive fibrosis assessment and follow-up in patients with HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection.
We present measurements of exclusive ensuremathπ+,0 and η production in pp reactions at 1.25GeV and 2.2GeV beam kinetic energy in hadron and dielectron channels. In the case of π+ and π0 , high-statistics invariant-mass and angular distributions are obtained within the HADES acceptance as well as acceptance-corrected distributions, which are compared to a resonance model. The sensitivity of the data to the yield and production angular distribution of Δ (1232) and higher-lying baryon resonances is shown, and an improved parameterization is proposed. The extracted cross-sections are of special interest in the case of pp → pp η , since controversial data exist at 2.0GeV; we find \ensuremathσ=0.142±0.022 mb. Using the dielectron channels, the π0 and η Dalitz decay signals are reconstructed with yields fully consistent with the hadronic channels. The electron invariant masses and acceptance-corrected helicity angle distributions are found in good agreement with model predictions.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper was to review the available approaches for bone strength assessment, osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk prediction, and to provide insights into radiofrequency echographic multi spectrometry (REMS), a non-ionizing axial skeleton technique.
Methods: A working group convened by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis met to review the current image-based methods for bone strength assessment and fracture risk estimation, and to discuss the clinical perspectives of REMS.
Results: Areal bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the consolidated indicator for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment. A more reliable fracture risk estimation would actually require an improved assessment of bone strength, integrating also bone quality information. Several different approaches have been proposed, including additional DXA-based parameters, quantitative computed tomography, and quantitative ultrasound. Although each of them showed a somewhat improved clinical performance, none satisfied all the requirements for a widespread routine employment, which was typically hindered by unclear clinical usefulness, radiation doses, limited accessibility, or inapplicability to spine and hip, therefore leaving several clinical needs still unmet. REMS is a clinically available technology for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment through the estimation of BMD on the axial skeleton reference sites. Its automatic processing of unfiltered ultrasound signals provides accurate BMD values in view of fracture risk assessment.
Conclusions: New approaches for improved bone strength and fracture risk estimations are needed for a better management of osteoporotic patients. In this context, REMS represents a valuable approach for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk prediction.
Background: Liver fibrosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals is mostly attributable to co-infection with hepatitis B or C. The impact of other risk factors, including prolonged exposure to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) is poorly understood. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of liver fibrosis and associated risk factors in HIV-infected individuals based on non-invasive fibrosis assessment using transient elastography (TE) and serum biomarkers (Fibrotest [FT]).
Methods: In 202 consecutive HIV-infected individuals (159 men; mean age 47 ± 9 years; 35 with hepatitis-C-virus [HCV] co-infection), TE and FT were performed. Repeat TE examinations were conducted 1 and 2 years after study inclusion.
Results: Significant liver fibrosis was present in 16% and 29% of patients, respectively, when assessed by TE (≥ 7.1 kPa) and FT (> 0.48). A combination of TE and FT predicted significant fibrosis in 8% of all patients (31% in HIV/HCV co-infected and 3% in HIV mono-infected individuals). Chronic ALT, AST and γ-GT elevation was present in 29%, 20% and 51% of all cART-exposed patients and in 19%, 8% and 45.5% of HIV mono-infected individuals. Overall, factors independently associated with significant fibrosis as assessed by TE (OR, 95% CI) were co-infection with HCV (7.29, 1.95-27.34), chronic AST (6.58, 1.30-33.25) and γ-GT (5.17, 1.56-17.08) elevation and time on dideoxynucleoside therapy (1.01, 1.00-1.02). In 68 HIV mono-infected individuals who had repeat TE examinations, TE values did not differ significantly during a median follow-up time of 24 months (median intra-patient changes at last TE examination relative to baseline: -0.2 kPa, p = 0.20).
Conclusions: Chronic elevation of liver enzymes was observed in up to 45.5% of HIV mono-infected patients on cART. However, only a small subset had significant fibrosis as predicted by TE and FT. There was no evidence for fibrosis progression during follow-up TE examinations.
Background: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are causally linked with metabolic comorbidities such as insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis, and dyslipidemia. However, the clinical impact of HCV eradication achieved by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on glucose and lipid homeostasis is still controversial. The study aimed to prospectively investigate whether antiviral therapy of HCV with DAAs alters glucose and lipid parameters. Methods: 50 patients with chronic HCV who were treated with DAAs were screened, and 49 were enrolled in the study. Biochemical and virological data, as well as noninvasive liver fibrosis parameters, were prospectively collected at baseline, at the end of treatment (EOT) and 12 and 24 weeks post-treatment. Results: 45 of 46 patients achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The prevalence of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after HCV clearance was significantly lower, compared to baseline (5.3 ± 6.1 to 2.5 ± 1.9, p < 0.001), which is primarily attributable to a significant decrease of fasting insulin levels (18.9 ± 17.3 to 11.7 ± 8.7; p = 0.002). In contrast to that, HCV eradication resulted in a significant increase in cholesterol levels (total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C) levels) and Controlled Attenuated Score (CAP), although BMI did not significantly change over time (p = 0.95). Moreover, HOMA-IR correlated significantly with noninvasive liver fibrosis measurements at baseline und during follow-up (TE: r = 0.45; p = 0.003, pSWE: r = 0.35; p = 0.02, APRI: r = 0.44; p = 0.003, FIB-4: r = 0.41; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Viral eradication following DAA therapy may have beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis, whereas lipid profile seems to be worsened.
Many QCD based and phenomenological models predict changes of hadron properties in a strongly interacting environment. The results of these models differ significantly and the experimental determination of hadron properties in nuclear matter is essential. In this paper we present a review of selected physics results obtained at GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH by HADES (High-Acceptance Di-Electron Spectrometer). The e+e− pair emission measured for proton and heavy-ion induced collisions is reported together with results on strangeness production. The future HADES activities at the planned FAIR facility are also discussed.
The knowledge of baryonic resonance properties and production cross sections plays an important role for the extraction and understanding of medium modifications of mesons in hot and/or dense nuclear matter. We present and discuss systematics on dielectron and strangeness production obtained with HADES on p+p, p+A and A+A collisions in the few GeV energy regime with respect to these resonances.
The High Acceptance DiElectron Spectrometer HADES [1] is installed at the Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung (GSI) accelerator facility in Darmstadt. It investigates dielectron emission and strangeness production in the 1-3 AGeV regime. A recent experiment series focusses on medium-modifications of light vector mesons in cold nuclear matter. In two runs, p+p and p+Nb reactions were investigated at 3.5 GeV beam energy; about 9·109 events have been registered. In contrast to other experiments the high acceptance of the HADES allows for a detailed analysis of electron pairs with low momenta relative to nuclear matter, where modifications of the spectral functions of vector mesons are predicted to be most prominent. Comparing these low momentum electron pairs to the reference measurement in the elementary p+p reaction, we find in fact a strong modification of the spectral distribution in the whole vector meson region.